MLB Double Your Money
- Philadelphia Phillies Alt RL +1.5 @ -260 on 4/24, 1910 EST (risking 65 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Philadelphia ML.
Quote: jh111Series 13 - A Bet
- Philadelphia Phillies Alt RL +1.5 @ -260 on 4/24, 1910 EST (risking 65 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Philadelphia ML.
Series #13
(13) Philadelphia Alt RL +1.5 @ -275 - A bet Win +$25
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1325
Overall Record/Units - 13-0, +13 units
***
A Bets = 10-3
B Bets = 3-0
C Bets = none
When you list the bet you are going to make with the associated odds, you are thus by definition NOT actually placing that bet. You are waiting til an unidentifiable time (1 minute before game time?) to make the actual wager. So your "56 to win 25" might really need to be "58 to win 25". Am I correct in my interpretation?
Quote: SOOPOOThe problem I have as just an observer is to know what you are actually betting I need to live stream 'Covers'.
When you list the bet you are going to make with the associated odds, you are thus by definition NOT actually placing that bet. You are waiting til an unidentifiable time (1 minute before game time?) to make the actual wager. So your "56 to win 25" might really need to be "58 to win 25". Am I correct in my interpretation?
Correct.
I normally wait til about 10-15 minutes before first pitch. Especially if a line is teetering around the -150 mark.
Quote: jh111Correct.
I normally wait til about 10-15 minutes before first pitch. Especially if a line is teetering around the -150 mark.
Im sure there are reasons for the switch in your system, and it has worked out so far as Ive seen on the one pitt game.... but you do have any data on past switches that have actually won because of the switch to plus 1.5 runs (whereas the team actually lost by 1 run, but won on your bet due to the switch) and how often it has occurred vs the impact it has made.
I would just like to know if it has real implications vs just putting the game in on the rl from the beginning and not having to wait until the last minute to play it.
You are doing a good job. The management and discipline are absolutely necessary , as it is with all aspects of gaming. You are organized and methodical with your approach. It really is a martingale type wager where many series games could be implemented. I would rather start the first game off in a series where Im not laying -270 or so.... as there are very few sweeps in mlb and most series you pick will win utilizing this system... so why not start of with game A with a lower odds game and not risk getting to game C at super high risk/reward number.
Quote: WatchMeWinas there are very few sweeps in mlb and most series you pick will win utilizing this system..
The MLB season is just about a month in and there’s already been 35 series sweeps.
Quote: michael99000The MLB season is just about a month in and there’s already been 35 series sweeps.
Then his system must work in avoiding Series that are prone to be a sweep.. I thought historically it has been around 25%.
Quote: WatchMeWinThen his system must work in avoiding Series that are prone to be a sweep.. I thought historically it has been around 25%.
Isn't his system just randomly picking heavy favorites and hoping they don't lose three in a row?
This is good, until it isn't.
"randomly picking"Quote: SM777Isn't his system just randomly picking heavy favorites ...
LOL
if that was true, he sure had a lot of time to waste backtesting games over many seasons to find something that fits.
would have been way better to pay a few dollars over at Bet Labs
"Build betting systems with millions of data points. No coding required."
I love to be lazy, so all his hard work (if we can call it that) fits me just fine.
at least my 1st bet (his suggestion) last night won
Quote: WatchMeWinIm sure there are reasons for the switch in your system, and it has worked out so far as Ive seen on the one pitt game.... but you do have any data on past switches that have actually won because of the switch to plus 1.5 runs (whereas the team actually lost by 1 run, but won on your bet due to the switch) and how often it has occurred vs the impact it has made.
I would just like to know if it has real implications vs just putting the game in on the rl from the beginning and not having to wait until the last minute to play it.
You are doing a good job. The management and discipline are absolutely necessary , as it is with all aspects of gaming. You are organized and methodical with your approach. It really is a martingale type wager where many series games could be implemented. I would rather start the first game off in a series where Im not laying -270 or so.... as there are very few sweeps in mlb and most series you pick will win utilizing this system... so why not start of with game A with a lower odds game and not risk getting to game C at super high risk/reward number.
Over the last 9+ years in which there have been 600+ series, there have only been two C bet losses. That’s all the data I need.
Small inconvenience for a large reward (if it plays out obviously).
Thank you. And there are a lot of people around the globe who are using this same strategy you mention that are upwards of 20 units in the red right now. One OP has three losses in the last two weeks.
Quote: SM777Isn't his system just randomly picking heavy favorites and hoping they don't lose three in a row?
This is good, until it isn't.
Yes - but I seem to have misplaced my lucky quarter. So no plays today.
Hopefully I’ll have it back in time for another coin flip tomorrow.
to push some math center stageQuote: jh111Over the last 9+ years in which there have been 600+ series, there have only been two C bet losses. That’s all the data I need.
you posted this early on
A Game Win % = 69
B Game Win % = 81
C Game Win % = 94
so the probability of NOT winning any of the bets (losing the C bet)
= 0.31*0.19*0.06=0.003534=about 1 in 283
I say let it happen next year (2020)
Quote: jh111Yes - but I seem to have misplaced my lucky quarter. So no plays today.
Hopefully I’ll have it back in time for another coin flip tomorrow.
What coin are you flipping that is -225?
Quote: 7crapsto push some math center stage
you posted this early on
A Game Win % = 69
B Game Win % = 81
C Game Win % = 94
so the probability of NOT winning any of the bets (losing the C bet)
= 0.31*0.19*0.06=0.003534=about 1 in 283
I say let it happen next year (2020)
You say you win 94% of your C bets. What has been the average odds you have been laying on these bets?
Quote: 7crapsto push some math center stage
you posted this early on
A Game Win % = 69
B Game Win % = 81
C Game Win % = 94
so the probability of NOT winning any of the bets (losing the C bet)
= 0.31*0.19*0.06=0.003534=about 1 in 283
I say let it happen next year (2020)
Or the year after that.
Quote: SM777What coin are you flipping that is -225?
The same coin telling me you’ll be back tomorrow with the same shtick.
Quote: SOOPOOYou say you win 94% of your C bets. What has been the average odds you have been laying on these bets?
Good question and relevant if you’re just playing C bets. I’ll look into it.
Quote: jh111Good question and relevant if you’re just playing C bets. I’ll look into it.
My point was that the percentages you claim on your A bets are consistent with what one would expect taking either runs or heavy favorites. But 94% on any team versus team baseball bet seems many standard deviations away from the norm. 31-2 or so. Right?
Quote: SOOPOOMy point was that the percentages you claim on your A bets are consistent with what one would expect taking either runs or heavy favorites. But 94% on any team versus team baseball bet seems many standard deviations away from the norm. 31-2 or so. Right?
Yes - 34-2.
- Chicago White Sox Alt RL +1.5 @ -225 on 4/29, 2010 EST (risking 56 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Chicago ML.
Quote: jh111The same coin telling me you’ll be back tomorrow with the same shtick.
Damn. Got to move to the next random B bet, as you were wrong. It's been four days.
Quote: SM777Damn. Got to move to the next random B bet, as you were wrong. It's been four days.
Yes - I was wrong.
Quote: jh111Series 14 - A Bet
- Chicago White Sox Alt RL +1.5 @ -225 on 4/29, 2010 EST (risking 56 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Chicago ML.
Series #14
(14) Chicago White Sox Alt RL +1.5 @ -220 - A bet Win +$25
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1350
Overall Record/Units - 14-0, +14 units
***
A Bets = 11-3
B Bets = 3-0
C Bets = none
Quote: unJonWonder if jh111 gave up or if his selection criteria just hasn’t found anything in last week.
I believe flipping a coin between two different -200 baseball lines would turn up a play. Probably realized he wasn't going to sell anything, and bailed. Not sure though.
Quote: unJonWonder if jh111 gave up or if his selection criteria just hasn’t found anything in last week.
My guess would be...
1) He/she is tired of the negativity on the site and thread.
2) Decided that there really is no point in continuing as he/she gets bashed for winning.
3) Knows he/she will not sell anything to anyone here.
4) Quitting when your ahead is not a bad idea.
5) He/she is on vacation with no internet/computer.
6) Lost his/her lucky coin to flip.
Quote: WatchMeWinMy guess would be...
1) He/she is tired of the negativity on the site and thread.
2) Decided that there really is no point in continuing as he/she gets bashed for winning.
3) Knows he/she will not sell anything to anyone here.
4) Quitting when your ahead is not a bad idea.
5) He/she is on vacation with no internet/computer.
6) Lost his/her lucky coin to flip.
3 and 6 are correct.
Quote: unJonWonder if jh111 selection criteria just hasn’t found anything in last week.
Correct.
Quote: WatchMeWinMy guess would be...
1) He/she is tired of the negativity on the site and thread.
2) Decided that there really is no point in continuing as he/she gets bashed for winning.
3) Knows he/she will not sell anything to anyone here.
4) Quitting when your ahead is not a bad idea.
5) He/she is on vacation with no internet/computer.
6) Lost his/her lucky coin to flip.
0 for 6. I would probably take the day off.
If only it were that easy.Quote: WatchMeWinMy guess would be...
1) He/she is tired of the negativity on the site and thread.
Quote: AxelWolfIf only it were that easy.
It could be that easy.
Does anyone want me to continue posting plays here?
You can't get out of this that easy.Quote: jh111It could be that easy.
Does anyone want me to continue posting plays here?
Post on, post on.
sure thing. continue on.Quote: jh111Does anyone want me to continue posting plays here?
I have no clue as to how you select the games to wager on, but at this point, neither do I care to know. The season is still young.
post plays. I’m thoroughly enjoying watching this experiment play out.Quote: jh111It could be that easy.
Does anyone want me to continue posting plays here?
- Minnesota Twins Alt RL +1.5 @ -240 on 5/8, 1907 EST (risking 60 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Minnesota ML.
Important Note 2: This series is against Toronto. So if Minnesota loses today, the B bet will be Friday on the White Sox.
Quote: jh111
Important Note 2: This series is against Toronto. So if Minnesota loses today, the B bet will be Friday on the White Sox.
Oh, interesting. You are picking losers not winners.
Quote: jh111And just FYI for anyone who cares. I have a youtube channel, John Hedgepeth, where I post all the plays. No selling. No bulshit. Just trying to help as many people as possible. Might help you guys to stop being so skeptical.
What are you package prices at YouTube?
Quote: jh111Series 15 - A Bet
- Minnesota Twins Alt RL +1.5 @ -240 on 5/8, 1907 EST (risking 60 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Minnesota ML.
Important Note 2: This series is against Toronto. So if Minnesota loses today, the B bet will be Friday on the White Sox.
Series #15
(15) Minnesota Twins Alt RL +1.5 @ -260 - A bet Win +$25
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1375
Overall Record/Units - 15-0, +15 units
***
A Bets = 12-3
B Bets = 3-0
C Bets = none
- Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -172 on 5/10, 1907 EST (risking 43 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Chicago ML.
Quote: jh111Series 16 - A Bet
- Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -172 on 5/10, 1907 EST (risking 43 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Chicago ML.
White Sox are a big underdog so I don’t see them becoming -151 favorites. And this game just came down off the boards. Is there some news?
ETA: Blue Jays starting pitcher is a scratch. That will move the line.
Quote: jh111Series 16 - A Bet
- Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -172 on 5/10, 1907 EST (risking 43 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - Chicago ML.
Series #16
(16) Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -168 - A bet Win +$25
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1400
Overall Record/Units - 16-0, +16 units
***
A Bets = 13-3
B Bets = 3-0
C Bets = none
- Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -146 on 5/11, 1507 EST (risking 37 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Quote: SM777What are you package prices at YouTube?
I suggest you check out his intro video (sales link redacted by mod)
Quote: jh111Series 17 - A Bet
- Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -146 on 5/11, 1507 EST (risking 37 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Series #17
(17) Chicago White Sox RL +1.5 @ -150 - A bet Win +$25
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1425
Overall Record/Units - 17-0, +17 units
***
A Bets = 14-3
B Bets = 3-0
C Bets = none
(Mod edit for profanity. Last warning.)
- New York Mets Alt RL +1.5 @ -275 on 5/18, 1610 EST (risking 69 to win 25)
- LA Angels ML @ -174 on 5/18, 2210 EST (risking 44 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the NY line rises to -151 or above at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Money Line - NY Mets ML. If the LA line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the Alt RL - LA +1.5.
Quote: jh111New series tomorrow...m-f-ers(Hank Moody voice).
(Mod edit for profanity. Last warning.)
Lol you're such a tool - I'm done with this gay ass forum.
