Mini-Baccarat System-Need Help explaining

Hi,

My friend has proposed a system and I want to see what the chances of loss are so I can show him. Unfortunately, my math skills are really bad and I tried to read up on how everything is calculated and I'm just confused, hopefully someone can help me out here.

His system:
2 players - $945 each
EZ Baccarat
Table limits - $15-$500

Each player follows Martingale betting opposite of one another, ignoring ties:
Player 1: BBPP...
Player 2: PPBB...

Which roughly translates to $15/hand with a max loss of $945-$105(if 7 losses in a row, other player would win $105)

Can anyone explain why this is a losing strategy? Thanks so much for your help.

Ignoring ties, you'll break exactly even if both player and banker win 50% of the time and you never lose 7 times in a row and bust out one of the bettors (I think that is the BEST case scenario for this system...I don't see a way for it to win...). Both bets will lose if the banker wins with a 3 card 7. That happens 2.25% of the time.

Hmm... If the banker wins with a 3 card 7 doesn't that result in a loss for the player betting player and a push for the player betting banker? You're probably right when you say that this is a losing strategy.

He said that he tried this method on the normal mini baccarat rules and ended up winning his buy in and he quit cause he felt he was going to lose, but he wanted me to "invest" with him on the no commission version because it was a "great" opportunity...

He's the type that is very aggressive when he thinks he's right, I want to be able to explain to him why it's not, or if it is, I will jump on board.

You're right. If the banker wins with a 3 card 7, the banker bet will push. But I think the larger point is unchanged. Both the Player and Banker bets have a house edge. Combining them can't make you better off.

Well, wouldn't betting opposites offset the edge of the current bet? I know that in the long run edge will win, but I don't see it :(

I should have paid more attention in class I guess.

Quote: Darkzx

Well, wouldn't betting opposites offset the edge of the current bet? I know that in the long run edge will win, but I don't see it :(

I should have paid more attention in class I guess.

I'm not a baccarat player, so maybe I'm out of line here. In my ignorance, I think the issues are that (1) if every hand meant one winner and one loser of the same amount, then you would break even, however (2) some hands have one loser and no winner, or a winner who wins less than the loser loses, so that overall you wind up behind. I think it's sort of like simultaneously betting pass and don't pass at craps.

Quote: Darkzx

Which roughly translates to $15/hand with a max loss of $945-$105(if 7 losses in a row, other player would win $105)

Can anyone explain why this is a losing strategy? Thanks so much for your help.

You answered your own question. One player uses the Martingdale system which requires him to double a losing bet. He will lose $945 and the other will win $105.

Also the 7 losing bets would be $15, $30, $60, $120, $240, $480, and the 7th bet would be $960 which exceeds the table limit. He would lose a total of $1905.

Yes sorry I guess it would be 6 losses in a row means game over, but what seethe chances of that happening before winning the original amount back $945.

Here's the math I have:
It would take 63 wins to make back the original amount.
1 in 64 chance for losing combination to occur.

My friend did show me that he went to the casino and tested his theory out and he won like $300.
Not enough to cover if he loses using martingale and I did look at the wizards graph, I'm guessing in the long run this will fail maybe not over 100 or 1000 but maybe 10000 or more sample size.

I just would like a smart way to help him and myself from continuing if this is a losing strategy.

regarding bets cancelling, are you forgetting the commission on wins?

Quote: odiousgambit

regarding bets cancelling, are you forgetting the commission on wins?

The original poster said that he was playing EZ Bac which has no commission on Bank bets.