Extreme Streak Roulette Discussion
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December 12th, 2017 at 3:02:49 PM
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#OpeningFastFact .... The odds of winning Powerball is equivalent to flipping a fair coin 28 consecutives times, heads.
I've been doing some deep data mining, and noticed that streaks of 30-31, (using 50/50 odds) are present.
As I continue analysis, sometimes, I see these streaks continue out to 34, or once even 36, but NEVER above that.
What if you had a access to individuals who were on these runs of fortune; or assuming unlimited bankroll, misfortune?
Say, apply the ever seductive Martingale starting at 31 instead of the masses who are fooled into believing a run of 10 is the time to fade.
#ClosingFastFact .... The recorded world record for a roulette run is 32 red on a Monte Carlo wheel in 1943.
I've been doing some deep data mining, and noticed that streaks of 30-31, (using 50/50 odds) are present.
As I continue analysis, sometimes, I see these streaks continue out to 34, or once even 36, but NEVER above that.
What if you had a access to individuals who were on these runs of fortune; or assuming unlimited bankroll, misfortune?
Say, apply the ever seductive Martingale starting at 31 instead of the masses who are fooled into believing a run of 10 is the time to fade.
#ClosingFastFact .... The recorded world record for a roulette run is 32 red on a Monte Carlo wheel in 1943.
January 9th, 2018 at 8:18:32 PM
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hmmmm, closing in on a month, and no takers for this discussion.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:51:16 AM
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No-one's interested because we members know that a streak of 2,3,or 30 reds is just as likely after a streak of 30 reds just rolled as it would be after a black or green.
Streaks that have happened have no influence on the next roll.
No influence: No predictive value: No value at all.
Streaks that have happened have no influence on the next roll.
No influence: No predictive value: No value at all.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
January 10th, 2018 at 5:29:37 AM
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I gotta admit I only checked this thread out because it was first thing in the AM and I misread the title as "Extreme Steak Roulette" and wondered what the hell kind of game that was. Maybe you have a wheel that identifies different cuts of meat and you bet on whether the person spinning will be able to eat whatever come up? I think it could catch on.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
January 10th, 2018 at 10:31:08 AM
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Looks like another taker for my 100% Guaranteed Sure-Fire Can't Lose Betting System:
1. Determine a number N such that there cannot possibly be more than N consecutive wins of a particular bet (in this case, 32 reds in roulette)
2. Wait until N consecutive wins of that bet come up
3. Bet as much as you can against it
4. Profit!
"What happens if that bet has the same result as the previous N?"
Don't look at me; you're the one that claimed that it was impossible for there to be more than N consecutive wins.
Think about it this way:
Suppose somebody had come up to that wheel in 1943 after 16 consecutive reds and said, "It can't keep coming up red; eventually, I'll win with black," only for red to come up another 16 consecutive times.
1. Determine a number N such that there cannot possibly be more than N consecutive wins of a particular bet (in this case, 32 reds in roulette)
2. Wait until N consecutive wins of that bet come up
3. Bet as much as you can against it
4. Profit!
"What happens if that bet has the same result as the previous N?"
Don't look at me; you're the one that claimed that it was impossible for there to be more than N consecutive wins.
Think about it this way:
Suppose somebody had come up to that wheel in 1943 after 16 consecutive reds and said, "It can't keep coming up red; eventually, I'll win with black," only for red to come up another 16 consecutive times.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:33:35 AM
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Another good example: Let's say I walk up to you, pull a quarter out of my pocket and say "I just flipped 28 heads in a row... How much would you like to bet on Tails? Mind you I'm taking a 5.28% commission off each bet..."
You'd probably be like "but I didn't see you flip 28 heads in a row just now!" ...and to that I'd reply: "Neither did the coin, because it doesn't care... So place your bet."
You'd probably be like "but I didn't see you flip 28 heads in a row just now!" ...and to that I'd reply: "Neither did the coin, because it doesn't care... So place your bet."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:13:13 PM
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It did say "extreme steak roulette". I was wondering the same thing, thought you could win steak. Mods must have corrected the title, because only they can.
I am a robot.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:26:15 PM
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Quote: DHass22
What if you had a access to individuals who were on these runs of fortune; or assuming unlimited bankroll, misfortune?
.
How exactly would that work ? My buddy calls me from the casino and says hey mike I’m at a wheel that just spun it’s 34th straight red , hurry up and get down here with a huge amount of cash before the next spin so we can max Bet black
January 10th, 2018 at 1:27:22 PM
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Supervisor: Sir, you have been standing around the roulette tables for over eight hours without placing a bet.
Player: I'm waiting for a streak of 30+ first.
Could this "system" get you get kicked out of the casino for loitering? lol Maybe this system can help players bet less, therefore saving them money in the long run. :)
Player: I'm waiting for a streak of 30+ first.
Could this "system" get you get kicked out of the casino for loitering? lol Maybe this system can help players bet less, therefore saving them money in the long run. :)
January 10th, 2018 at 1:35:36 PM
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If your waiting for 31 in a row chances are pretty good that you would never place a bet.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:22:05 PM
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Michael99000, EdPokerNut, & Mikey75. Thanks for the replies; all great questions. I would love to have a phone conversation (or meet in person, lunch is on me) with each of you to politely debate. If any of you are in the area, I make a monthly trip to Vegas. And just a personal disclaimer, I don't want a dime of your $$$, .... ZERO interest in your disposable income.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:58:24 PM
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I saw 26 reds in a row at the Taj Mahal in 2007.
On a side note the Venetian at one time had a red bias on a few wheels back around 2007, 2008 when they had Paulson wheels.
On a side note the Venetian at one time had a red bias on a few wheels back around 2007, 2008 when they had Paulson wheels.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:32:40 PM
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I saw the #5 come out five spins in a row at Sands in Bethlehem PA. The next spin was a 17 (right next to the 5) and then following that 17, three more 5s in a row. I still can’t believe it
January 12th, 2018 at 6:40:00 AM
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You don't have to believe in a system, you just make your bets and then win or lose, same as any others. Its that next spin that counts, not the amount of oxygen the casino pumped in on that last shift.Quote: michael99000I still can’t believe it
January 12th, 2018 at 10:30:49 AM
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Mikey75 .... Not an issue, I'm data mining, to receive those streaks.
January 12th, 2018 at 10:37:22 AM
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Quote: EdpokernutSupervisor: Sir, you have been standing around the roulette tables for over eight hours without placing a bet.
Player: I'm waiting for a streak of 30+ first.
Could this "system" get you get kicked out of the casino for loitering? lol :)
No standing at a table required. So, if you had access to streaks of 30+?, would you have an advantage by starting a martingale there instead of a typical gamblers fallacy trap by starting a martingale at a streak length of say 8 or 10?
January 12th, 2018 at 10:42:44 AM
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Quote: DHass22No standing at a table required. So, if you had access to streaks of 30+?, would you have an advantage by starting a martingale there instead of typical gamblers fallacy starting a martingale at a streak of say 8 or 10.
In the absence of a wheel defect, if you were able to wait long enough for a streak of 100 reds, the next spin would be as likely to be red as it was to be black and in each case, the probability would be less that 50% for an even money payout.
ABSOLUTELY NO ADVANTAGE to be gained by monitoring any length of streaks over any number of fair tables.
Gamblers' fallacy doesn't start to kick in at a streak of 8, 10, or any other number. It is always what it is: A fallacy.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
January 12th, 2018 at 11:21:50 AM
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Quote: DHass22Mikey75 .... Not an issue, I'm data mining, to receive those streaks.
You’d be better off bitcoin mining
January 12th, 2018 at 12:52:33 PM
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I sayQuote: DHass22So, if you had access to streaks of 30+?, would you have an advantage by starting a martingale there <snip>
"no advantage to the Marty player."
sure a 10 step Marty might have a one time winning probability of say 99.43%
after 10 reds in a row
or
30 reds in a row
that still does not give a Marty player an advantage. (do the math!)
this was proven way back in the 1600s when math and gambling was KING!
(and math guys too)
would be fun (math is fun) to bet against that streak, I admit that one.
you must have a different 'meaning' for the word 'advantage'
in the context you are using it in.
I do say so.
I Heart Vi Hart
January 13th, 2018 at 12:15:26 PM
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OnceDear, Fair enough, I can respect your opinion. Why have I made multiple outlets (local bookie & offshore) refuse my action? My game of choice isn't roulette; for the sake of this thread, and streak theory, I'm using roulette as the example due to it's almost 50/50 props like red/black, odd/even, high/low. Would love to pick your brain via phone call, or meeting. Too many individuals in here willing to sit in 'Ivory Towers', and not have a friendly debate via phone call.
January 13th, 2018 at 12:25:21 PM
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Hi Dhass.
Phone call might not cost in, I'm in the UK and probably the time diff might be another small obstacle.
I'm happy to discuss your ideas, in a non-hostile way. I'm one of the few here who values the amusement of Martying and similar. I actually do, often, employ progressives and watered down marty to enhance the fun value of playing my game of choice (Blackjack)
I invite you to read through my blog here and see where I have had fun and profit (short lived) with Marty.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/4/#post1330
and read and digest this thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/
If you have skype, ping me your skype ID , timezone and availability times by personal message.
Phone call might not cost in, I'm in the UK and probably the time diff might be another small obstacle.
I'm happy to discuss your ideas, in a non-hostile way. I'm one of the few here who values the amusement of Martying and similar. I actually do, often, employ progressives and watered down marty to enhance the fun value of playing my game of choice (Blackjack)
I invite you to read through my blog here and see where I have had fun and profit (short lived) with Marty.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/4/#post1330
and read and digest this thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/
If you have skype, ping me your skype ID , timezone and availability times by personal message.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
January 13th, 2018 at 12:47:13 PM
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Quote: DHass22Why have I made multiple outlets (local bookie & offshore) refuse my action?
There are many possible reasons. Bookies and indeed offshore and online casinos have people who are afraid of marty because they don't accept that it doesn't hurt them. I know of one online casino that has banned members citing their use of marty betting as a form of unacceptable play. That's one of the gaffs that banned me :o)
If your bankroll is on a par with the casino's, then they would be right to be afraid of you. But that doesn't happen to us mere mortals.
Don't overestimate the mathematical or statistical prowess of casino employees or pit staff. Really. just don't.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
