Which casino bet in most likely to have a streak of TWO wins in a row?
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March 5th, 2017 at 10:20:36 AM
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Hi, does anyone know which casino bet in most likely to win two times in a row?
I read that Blackjack is the LEAST likely to have a streak. And Baccarat is the Most Likely to have a streak. But I don't know the reasoning behind this. Is there any validity to this?
Also, I have a question about the PASS LINE and DON'T PASS in Craps. I know they are both pretty close as far as odds of winning. HOWEVER, is one more LIKELY to win TWO in a row than the other bet?
It seems with the SEVEN being the most likely to be rolled, one of these bets would be more likely than the other to win 2 in a row. I don't know.
Thanks for your input!
I read that Blackjack is the LEAST likely to have a streak. And Baccarat is the Most Likely to have a streak. But I don't know the reasoning behind this. Is there any validity to this?
Also, I have a question about the PASS LINE and DON'T PASS in Craps. I know they are both pretty close as far as odds of winning. HOWEVER, is one more LIKELY to win TWO in a row than the other bet?
It seems with the SEVEN being the most likely to be rolled, one of these bets would be more likely than the other to win 2 in a row. I don't know.
Thanks for your input!
March 5th, 2017 at 10:59:35 AM
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The Lay 4/10 in craps. You're twice as likely to win than lose (Six ways to win over three ways to lose).
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
March 5th, 2017 at 11:49:32 AM
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Put a single chip on 35 separate numbers at a single 0 roullette wheel.
89.4% chance of winning two in a row
89.4% chance of winning two in a row
March 5th, 2017 at 6:19:09 PM
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Assuming it's only a single chip (rather than the back 35 numbers method) then I'm guessing you're looking for the one that has the highest probability of winning (regardless of the payout).
Technically it seems the lay bet on 4 or 10 is the best as the chances of winning each one is 2/3, however you may have to wait a while for the bet(s) to be resolved if other number numbers are thrown.
The next best seems to be split column or split dozen. (I don't know if casinos allow this bet any more but it is explained at http://www.ukcasinotablegames.info/roulette.html ) This has a chance of winning just under 2/3 (exact number depends on # 0's), but has the advantage of being resolved every spin.
Of course if you're in a bookies, then just wait for two odds on chances.
Technically it seems the lay bet on 4 or 10 is the best as the chances of winning each one is 2/3, however you may have to wait a while for the bet(s) to be resolved if other number numbers are thrown.
The next best seems to be split column or split dozen. (I don't know if casinos allow this bet any more but it is explained at http://www.ukcasinotablegames.info/roulette.html ) This has a chance of winning just under 2/3 (exact number depends on # 0's), but has the advantage of being resolved every spin.
Of course if you're in a bookies, then just wait for two odds on chances.
March 5th, 2017 at 6:49:00 PM
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Bet every number in roulette. Chance of a winning hit...100%
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
March 5th, 2017 at 8:18:20 PM
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Every hit will be a losing one. My assumption is you have to make a profit on your outlay. btw a better method than betting every number is Red,Black and Zero or there's a Trente et Quarante which is even better odds as you can insure your bet for 1% (see http://www.casinomontecarlo.com/games/european-casino-games/trente-et-quarante/ ).Quote: IbeatyouracesBet every number in roulette. Chance of a winning hit...100%
March 5th, 2017 at 8:45:07 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickEvery hit will be a losing one. My assumption is you have to make a profit on your outlay. btw a better method than betting every number is Red,Black and Zero or there's a Trente et Quarante which is even better odds as you can insure your bet for 1% (see http://www.casinomontecarlo.com/games/european-casino-games/trente-et-quarante/ ).
He did not ask about losing money. Just asked which had the best odds of winning twice in a row. Bet all the numbers and you'll have a winner every spin.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
March 5th, 2017 at 9:18:57 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesHe did not ask about losing money. Just asked which had the best odds of winning twice in a row. Bet all the numbers and you'll have a winner every spin.
A winner every spin shouldn't be considered two wins in a row, as it would be a streak of two wins and 74 losses. That would be like saying a $125 spin on a 100-line video poker machine and pays back $18.75 is a winning bet
Money line bets on the top seeds in the NCAA tournament can be as high as 98%, which would be better than 96% chance of winning twice in a row
March 5th, 2017 at 9:25:32 PM
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Quote: michael99000Put a single chip on 35 separate numbers at a single 0 roullette wheel.
89.4% chance of winning two in a row
I still contend that , if we are talking about valid, legal, casino table game wagers where if you win the bet you come out ahead, then betting 35 roulette numbers for the same amount each has the highest probability of winning. And therefore also has the highest probability of winning twice in a row
March 5th, 2017 at 10:11:57 PM
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Quote: michael99000I still contend that , if we are talking about valid, legal, casino table game wagers where if you win the bet you come out ahead, then betting 35 roulette numbers for the same amount each has the highest probability of winning. And therefore also has the highest probability of winning twice in a row
This.
March 6th, 2017 at 7:57:47 AM
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I'm sorry, I guess my question was too vague. I will rephrase my question.
If I had just ONE CHIP ONLY to bet, which bet at a casino would give me the BEST chance of winning THAT bet AND the very next bet. My goal is to take the winnings from the first bet, then Parlay those winnings on the Second bet. If I win, I stop betting.
Thanks.
If I had just ONE CHIP ONLY to bet, which bet at a casino would give me the BEST chance of winning THAT bet AND the very next bet. My goal is to take the winnings from the first bet, then Parlay those winnings on the Second bet. If I win, I stop betting.
Thanks.
March 6th, 2017 at 8:11:37 AM
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Well, I hope you know this is a poor plan if you're trying to make money and it's doomed to failure in the long run (short run will just be variance either way).
That said, given your 1 chip requirements... lay the 4/10 in craps as suggested. Each independent trial you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning, and you only need one chip (though it has to be 1 chip big enough for the table requirements).
That said, given your 1 chip requirements... lay the 4/10 in craps as suggested. Each independent trial you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning, and you only need one chip (though it has to be 1 chip big enough for the table requirements).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 6th, 2017 at 9:00:41 AM
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Quote: Romes... given your 1 chip requirements... lay the 4/10 in craps as suggested. Each independent trial you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning, and you only need one chip (though it has to be 1 chip big enough for the table requirements).
I don't make lay bets, so I might have some of this incorrect....
Just to be picky perhaps, I think the complicating factor of a one-chip lay bet is "How do you pay the vig?" If the vig is collected up front, you need a second chip just to pay that, or your wagered chip has to be broken down.
If you have a casino that will allow a lay 4/10 with vig paid only on the win, then a bet of X will win X/2 less a 5% commission, so that you would then have 1.475 X parlayed as your second wager. If that wager wins, you will then have (1.475)^2 X to take home from the experiment.
What kind of chip are you starting out with such that 2.175625 times that chip amount is easily paid in chips?
How do they round off the vig on a lay bet for really odd amounts?
March 6th, 2017 at 9:36:05 AM
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depends if you count a tie or not for the dpass.Quote: TERMINATORAlso, I have a question about the PASS LINE and DON'T PASS in Craps.
I know they are both pretty close as far as odds of winning.
HOWEVER, is one more LIKELY to win TWO in a row than the other bet?
the probability of the pass line winning the very next two times is
244/495 * 244/495
or about 0.242979
a little less than 1 in 4 (nice)
the dpass
can push on a 12 on the come out roll
so to win the very next two times is
949/1980 * 949/1980
or about 0.22972
less than the pass
:)
but
if you try again after a push (get nervous too)
in other words, you keep betting after a push
949/1925 * 949/1925
or about 0.243036
in summary
not counting ties...
pass = 0.242979
dpass =0.243036
real close baby
have fun no matter the outcome
Sally
Oh yes,
btw
the higher the probability of winning (over 50%) the less one wins
even at sports betting 2
I Heart Vi Hart
March 6th, 2017 at 1:22:30 PM
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Thanks for your detailed answer, Sally. It seems you always give me the answer I'm looking for!
And thanks to everyone else who answered my question. The Lay on the 4/10 is a good answer. I will consider that.
And just so everyone knows, I am not planning on betting only ONE chip. My question relates to a very intriguing Parlay Progression which I have been having an incredible amount of success with. I mentioned this in another email, but the progression goes like this:
1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7
Basically, if I win at ANY stage in the progression, I parlay. If I win that parlay, I stop and begin again. If I lose, I continue with the progression.
I was simply looking for a casino bet with the best chances of me winning.
Thanks again for all your input everyone.
And thanks to everyone else who answered my question. The Lay on the 4/10 is a good answer. I will consider that.
And just so everyone knows, I am not planning on betting only ONE chip. My question relates to a very intriguing Parlay Progression which I have been having an incredible amount of success with. I mentioned this in another email, but the progression goes like this:
1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7
Basically, if I win at ANY stage in the progression, I parlay. If I win that parlay, I stop and begin again. If I lose, I continue with the progression.
I was simply looking for a casino bet with the best chances of me winning.
Thanks again for all your input everyone.
March 6th, 2017 at 1:54:25 PM
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I love negative progression systems myself, but just remember, it doesn't affect the odds of the game, no matter which bet you choose. Negative progression allows you to have many small wins over many sessions, with a large loss on a single session.
March 6th, 2017 at 3:18:16 PM
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without looking more into it, I do not think your progression will workQuote: TERMINATORMy question relates to a very intriguing Parlay Progression which I have been having an incredible amount of success with. I mentioned this in another email, but the progression goes like this:
1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7
Basically, if I win at ANY stage in the progression, I parlay. If I win that parlay, I stop and begin again. If I lose, I continue with the progression.
as is
for a Lay bet,
even the Banker bet at Baccarat because of the commission required to pay on a win or making the bet.
I could be wrong...
<<<<< >>>>>
the lay bet 4/10 (and I know) wins 50% of what you bet
and it costs money to make it.
say $40 to win $20
cost = $1 (5% of the win - upfront at many casinos, not all)
I would stay at your drawing board on this
so
you know the progression will work for this bet.
I would just play it in WinCraps and see how it does (yes I looked)
and it does poorly (the progression that is... with my little example)
sure is fun when the bets get real big!
not fun when the parlay does not cover your total losses
Oh well,
good luck
have fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
March 6th, 2017 at 3:24:22 PM
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I'd throw in betting on sporting events you're confident. Two bets might be a week apart.
I am a robot.
March 6th, 2017 at 3:33:25 PM
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some do not allow odd Lay bet amounts,Quote: DocHow do they round off the vig on a lay bet for really odd amounts?
others adjust to nearest $1 or 50 cents if they have it.
Never seen or heard of any standard for this.
watched a guy wanting a Lay 5 for $50 and they kept him happy just telling him after so many bets he owed this much, so I could not figure it out.
I have seen Lay bets for $100 on 4,6,8 and 10
only seen a few times on the 5,9
as a proper bet would be $99 to win $66 for a vig of $3.30
so it can get messy (kind of, of course)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
March 6th, 2017 at 3:50:48 PM
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The suggestions to bet on 35 numbers on Roulette made me laugh. However, I don't believe it is a valid option because that would be 35 separate bets. The question is which [one] bet has the highest chance of winning two times in a row.
The Roulette suggestion is similar to saying go to the Craps table and make Place bets on all box numbers and make a world bet. One of the bets will win on the next two rolls, but it most likely won't be the same bet.
The Roulette suggestion is similar to saying go to the Craps table and make Place bets on all box numbers and make a world bet. One of the bets will win on the next two rolls, but it most likely won't be the same bet.
March 6th, 2017 at 3:54:07 PM
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Pretty sure the OP is looking for a 1:1 bet anyway. At least with the progression he has shown.
March 6th, 2017 at 3:54:59 PM
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Slyworm, yes I realize it doesn’t effect the odds of play.
Sally, Yes, I will have to adjust this progression for the Lay bet. I have not worked it out yet, but hopefully I will soon.
So far I’ve been using Wincraps and betting strictly on the Don’t Pass (with 2 Don’t Come bets), and it’s been doing incredibly well. I know I’ve been lucky though, but this progression is so much safer than many others I’ve looked into. Rather than a Big Risk Big Reward, this progression is Low Risk Low Reward.
Sally, Yes, I will have to adjust this progression for the Lay bet. I have not worked it out yet, but hopefully I will soon.
So far I’ve been using Wincraps and betting strictly on the Don’t Pass (with 2 Don’t Come bets), and it’s been doing incredibly well. I know I’ve been lucky though, but this progression is so much safer than many others I’ve looked into. Rather than a Big Risk Big Reward, this progression is Low Risk Low Reward.
March 6th, 2017 at 5:33:31 PM
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Quote: BlueEagleThe suggestions to bet on 35 numbers on Roulette made me laugh. However, I don't believe it is a valid option because that would be 35 separate bets. The question is which [one] bet has the highest chance of winning two times in a row.
.
I disagree, it's not 35 separate bets. If each bet were a separate bet than that implies each bet has a chance to win, which isn't the case. It's a single bet risking 3500 to win 100. If I put $1800 on red, is that 1 bet or is it 18 separate bets on each red number? In my example of betting 35 separate numbers, if the layout somehow allowed me to do that with one bet then it would be more clear that it's one bet
March 19th, 2017 at 4:55:45 PM
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Assuming it's only a single chip (rather than the back 35 numbers method) then I'm guessing you're looking for the one that has the highest probability of winning (regardless of the payout).
March 19th, 2017 at 10:30:26 PM
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Well, yes. But winning TWICE in a row.
March 19th, 2017 at 11:22:33 PM
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Having 35 different numbers bet on roulette -- each of those bets has a chance to win. There's just covariance and only one can win at a time.
The bet that is most likely to win is the same bet that is most likely to win twice in a row.
Quote: TERMINATORWell, yes. But winning TWICE in a row.
The bet that is most likely to win is the same bet that is most likely to win twice in a row.
March 20th, 2017 at 6:03:41 AM
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I also second the "play every number" schtick that someone else said on here. :) You're guaranteed to win SOMETHING. ... ;)
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March 20th, 2017 at 7:08:30 AM
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Quote: NathanI also second the "play every number" schtick that someone else said on here. :) You're guaranteed to win SOMETHING. ... ;)
This from the same person whose pet peeve is that a multiline machine declares a win then returns less than your total bet?
This is the same thing, but self-inflicted, since with evenly distributed individual numbers bet, and those numbers never paying true odds on a win, you will NEVER win more than you have lost placing the bet.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 20th, 2017 at 9:41:40 AM
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But the 35 numbers bet will not really work for me. I am trying to fit this bet in with my progression. As stated earlier, I am looking to do a certain "progression." The casino I play at has a $10 - $1000 limit. If I lose my bet ONCE, there is no bet I can make a second time to make up for that loss on the NEXT BET, as I will have reached the table max on my second bet. It is totally unfeasable.
Also, if we WIN the 35 number bet, all we do is win our money BACK, we do NOT make a profit. Which defeats the purpose of what I am asking. SO please drop this 35 number answer.
Let me rephrase my question. I want to make a SINGLE 1 unit bet. Okay? I cannot put a 1 unit bet on 35 numbers.
So, does anyone else have an answer to my question? Which single 1 unit bet has the best chances of winning two times in a row? Thank you for your help.
Also, if we WIN the 35 number bet, all we do is win our money BACK, we do NOT make a profit. Which defeats the purpose of what I am asking. SO please drop this 35 number answer.
Let me rephrase my question. I want to make a SINGLE 1 unit bet. Okay? I cannot put a 1 unit bet on 35 numbers.
So, does anyone else have an answer to my question? Which single 1 unit bet has the best chances of winning two times in a row? Thank you for your help.
March 20th, 2017 at 10:09:49 AM
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Quote: TERMINATORBut the 35 numbers bet will not really work for me. I am trying to fit this bet in with my progression. As stated earlier, I am looking to do a certain "progression." The casino I play at has a $10 - $1000 limit. If I lose my bet ONCE, there is no bet I can make a second time to make up for that loss on the NEXT BET, as I will have reached the table max on my second bet. It is totally unfeasable.
Also, if we WIN the 35 number bet, all we do is win our money BACK, we do NOT make a profit. Which defeats the purpose of what I am asking. SO please drop this 35 number answer.
Let me rephrase my question. I want to make a SINGLE 1 unit bet. Okay? I cannot put a 1 unit bet on 35 numbers.
So, does anyone else have an answer to my question? Which single 1 unit bet has the best chances of winning two times in a row? Thank you for your help.
Then I think the answer you are looking for was in the first reply to your original post:
Lay the 4/10.
March 20th, 2017 at 11:57:26 AM
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The only issue I see with laying the 4/10 is the fact you only get paid out 1:2 plus the 5% vig. My answer to this question you have, Terminator, is the don't pass in craps, or if you want to play with the table and have slightly less odds, then play the pass line.
