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goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 11:51:08 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Actually, it's the only issue that matters for 98steps and his investors. They spin the wheel, and they see what the end result is. That's all that matters... the actual result. In this case it's the opposite of the Wizard's maxim. I'm not really considering the 1 billion samples challenge in my statement, which I agree that it's vanishingly small chance that 98 steps can beat with any system.



Sorry, that "segment" of this thread is indeed about whether the actual play with the investors' money has a shot at coming out ahead.

We should keep in mind, however, the fundamental difference between a probability of overcoming a negative expectation in a relatively small number of trials and the possibility of having a positive expectation due to varying bet amounts, bankroll management, etc. etc.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 22nd, 2010 at 12:08:13 PM permalink
I am still enjoying this thread... like I enjoy watching "America's Funniest Home Videos" to see someone get kicked in the cojones. It's great entertainment.

I encourage 98 to keep reporting, as we wait for the Central Limit Theorem to bring everything back to normal in the Universe.

Did he state his win goal?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 12:13:54 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Progress Update....

First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.

October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162


Thanks for the update 98steps.
I'm certain you will see many more positive results from your sessions.
Hopefully they will out distance the negative ones that you know will be there.

I do not know what you are working on, still thinking the craps challenge can be won by you.
Good Luck with your adventures!
I will see you in Vegas in the next few weeks to watch you in action.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 3:32:03 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

He accepted the challenge.



He absolutely did NOT accept the challenge. He *inquired* about the challenge, I encouraged him to seek an outside test before actually accepting, and to not accept if his system failed the test, and he took my advice and didn't accept. What is your malfunction?
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 3:32:45 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Anyone with any kind of university background in mathematics--ESPECIALLY statistics--would realize the utter futility of what you're trying to do, and consequently would not waste his time or money attempting it.



Don't forget - he's not betting with his own money. He's using others' funds and taking a portion of their winnings. Based on what I've read so far, he actually does have a +EV. It's just coming at the expense of his investors.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 4:40:20 PM permalink
Progress Update....

Today was a very disapointing and challenging day. I saw bankroll lows of -650(approx 25% of active bankroll). Table eventually broke down to just me. One of my rules for operation of my investors money is a time constraint so as to make sure that I am mentally fresh and alert and make no mistakes that cost my investors money. That constraint is if one session exceeds 6 hours. Today's session did exceed the time constraint.

October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 22nd, 2010 at 4:45:14 PM permalink
Thanks for the update. Will the next session begin tonight, or tomorrow?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 22nd, 2010 at 4:46:17 PM permalink
Also, is there a win goal? Is there a +gross amount that will stop the operation?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 5:06:23 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks for the update. Will the next session begin tonight, or tomorrow?



I am done for today, with my investor's consent. I am throuroughly exhausted. 6+ hour session closes the day according to my agreements.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 5:08:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Also, is there a win goal? Is there a +gross amount that will stop the operation?



For the "Base" strategy which I am running from now til November 1st, the win goal is $150 per session. with one to three sessions per day depending on time constraints.

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