Actually, it's the only issue that matters for 98steps and his investors. They spin the wheel, and they see what the end result is. That's all that matters... the actual result. In this case it's the opposite of the Wizard's maxim. I'm not really considering the 1 billion samples challenge in my statement, which I agree that it's vanishingly small chance that 98 steps can beat with any system.
Sorry, that "segment" of this thread is indeed about whether the actual play with the investors' money has a shot at coming out ahead.
We should keep in mind, however, the fundamental difference between a probability of overcoming a negative expectation in a relatively small number of trials and the possibility of having a positive expectation due to varying bet amounts, bankroll management, etc. etc.
I encourage 98 to keep reporting, as we wait for the Central Limit Theorem to bring everything back to normal in the Universe.
Did he state his win goal?
First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162
Thanks for the update 98steps.
I'm certain you will see many more positive results from your sessions.
Hopefully they will out distance the negative ones that you know will be there.
I do not know what you are working on, still thinking the craps challenge can be won by you.
Good Luck with your adventures!
I will see you in Vegas in the next few weeks to watch you in action.
He accepted the challenge.
He absolutely did NOT accept the challenge. He *inquired* about the challenge, I encouraged him to seek an outside test before actually accepting, and to not accept if his system failed the test, and he took my advice and didn't accept. What is your malfunction?
Anyone with any kind of university background in mathematics--ESPECIALLY statistics--would realize the utter futility of what you're trying to do, and consequently would not waste his time or money attempting it.
Don't forget - he's not betting with his own money. He's using others' funds and taking a portion of their winnings. Based on what I've read so far, he actually does have a +EV. It's just coming at the expense of his investors.
Today was a very disapointing and challenging day. I saw bankroll lows of -650(approx 25% of active bankroll). Table eventually broke down to just me. One of my rules for operation of my investors money is a time constraint so as to make sure that I am mentally fresh and alert and make no mistakes that cost my investors money. That constraint is if one session exceeds 6 hours. Today's session did exceed the time constraint.
October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60.
Thanks for the update. Will the next session begin tonight, or tomorrow?
I am done for today, with my investor's consent. I am throuroughly exhausted. 6+ hour session closes the day according to my agreements.
Also, is there a win goal? Is there a +gross amount that will stop the operation?
For the "Base" strategy which I am running from now til November 1st, the win goal is $150 per session. with one to three sessions per day depending on time constraints.