jjcrocco
jjcrocco
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February 18th, 2016 at 10:02:24 AM permalink
Ok, I have to see if others have had any success using the martingale system on the TIE bet in baccarat. Since it pays 8-1, you can bet 1 unit 8 times in a row and winning on the 8th hand you win 1 unit. If you lose then on the 9th-18th you bet 2 units and so on. On the 18th hand, you still win 1 unit, but if you win on the 9th hand you win 7 units. going to the next group of 8 and so on until you win.

Betting $5 8 times, then $10 8 times, then $20 8 times then $40 8 times = $600 bank roll

However, each win will win you from $5 to $40 helping to close the gap of losses on a losing streak. I have had two ties in a row, that's a $80 win.

Since a tie occurs about 9% or close to 1 in 11 hands, to lose $600 would be 32 hands in a row without a tie.

I have been practicing and never hit the 32 hands, though I have been in the $40 betting area but never busted starting out with a $600 bank.

If you have plenty of time, you can extend this to watch for no tie for 8 hands, then start betting, and the amount of hands needing to come in without a tie would now be 40. You will reduce the amount of times you win, but will decrease your chances of a losing streak.

I am sure the game has had 40 hands go without a tie. The luck on your part is that you are not betting when that occurs, and I would guess it doesn't occur that often.
DRich
DRich
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February 18th, 2016 at 10:43:59 AM permalink
I have found that if you bet the "Tie" after either a Banker win or a Player win it will hit 9.5% of the time. My system is free and only requires you to find a table that pays 11 to 1 for the Tie and you will get rich.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ThatDonGuy
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February 18th, 2016 at 10:48:22 AM permalink
If you start betting 10 after 8 losses, then if you lose 7 more before winning, your total losses before your win are 8 x 5 + 7 x 10 = 110, and your win only makes 80, so you are still 30 behind after your win. Even if you bet 15 instead of 10, 15 losses would be 8 x 5 + 7 x 15 = 145, and your win would only be 120. In fact, you would have to bet 41 or more in order to make money even after 15 losses. (If you bet 5 on your first 8 and N on your next 8, then 15 losses = 40 + 7N, and your win = 8N, so 8N > 7N + 40 in order for you to come out ahead.) If you do lose 16 in a row, the next 8 bets have to be more than (8 x (5 + your level 2 bet)), which is a bet of at least 369. (8 bets of 5 followed by 8 bets of 41 followed by 7 bets of 368 is 40 + 328 + 2576 = 2944, and a bet of 368 that wins makes 2944, so you break even.) Should you happen to lose 24 in a row, with bets of 5, 41, and 369, you are now 3320 behind, and need to bet 26,561 per bet in order to make money in the next eight - OOPS, the table maximum is less than that, isn't it?

"I would guess it doesn't occur that often" reminds me of the joke about the girl who was selling $500 glasses of lemonade. When told she wouldn't get many customers at that price, she replied, "True, but it only needs to happen once."
djatc
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February 18th, 2016 at 10:56:47 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I have found that if you bet the "Tie" after either a Banker win or a Player win it will hit 9.5% of the time. My system is free and only requires you to find a table that pays 11 to 1 for the Tie and you will get rich.



Also every time a new dealer comes in bet the tie.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
DMSCR
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February 18th, 2016 at 11:33:00 AM permalink
What happened to stay hydrated?
djatc
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February 18th, 2016 at 7:25:22 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

What happened to stay hydrated?



It goes without saying. Drink out of 8oz bottles for good luck.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
RS
RS
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February 19th, 2016 at 2:20:55 AM permalink
I usually win when I play baccarat. I wait for the others to make their wagers, then I'd bet the opposite of them. If they freak out and yell -- it's a sure winner (sometimes). If they don't freak out and yell, you still have a decent chance to win, but should pull your bet. You don't want to get greedy.
AxelWolf
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February 19th, 2016 at 3:20:15 AM permalink
I'm the best baccarat player in the world.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
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February 19th, 2016 at 4:03:55 AM permalink
I notice the baccarat system folks will often post with the clear assumption that everybody knows systems work in baccarat, are really fun, and everybody enjoys comparing theirs. And we get a lot of those threads; popcorn-munchable every time.

Either there is a vast community out there so that naturally we pick a few up, or there are trolls who are competing to see who can pull off sincerity the best and keep everybody going, winning/losing bets in the process maybe.

Seems like it has to be one or the other.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Hittem
Hittem
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February 19th, 2016 at 8:51:40 AM permalink
This can't be real.....
DMSCR
DMSCR
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February 19th, 2016 at 9:23:43 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm the best baccarat player in the world.



And Madonna is a virgin and Michael Phelps doesn't know how to swim.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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February 19th, 2016 at 9:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: Hittem

This can't be real.....

Reality is a subjective entity, especially in the Bac World....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DMSCR
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February 19th, 2016 at 9:49:46 AM permalink
As long one stays hydrated everything will be okay.
jjcrocco
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February 19th, 2016 at 11:07:39 AM permalink
You are correct - I didn't realize it until I started reading your post. DUHH, I knew it was too easy. The funny thing is that I ran the method for a dozen shoes and they ALL were winners, some only $80, others $250+.

So, I recalculated it so that I can have a winner in every Tie hand I could bet up to 40 times and still be under a $500 bet, with a $4000 bank roll. Not sure what the table max bet is on that bet. Has anyone ever seen it go that many times without a tie?

In my dozen shoes, the most I had it go was 34 times. and each shoe had 8-12 ties.

Most of the Ties happened 9 or more hands after the last tie, so if one would wait for 8 hands before betting, you could go 48 hands. obviously a big risk, but if the likelihood of it going 48 times is very rare (cant say non-existent because in theory it is) it could be worth a try.

Go ahead and play it on any simulator and see if you can have it go 40+ times without a TIE. Let me know your findings, keep track of the longest run you encounter.
ThatDonGuy
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February 19th, 2016 at 11:45:56 AM permalink
Quote: jjcrocco

So, I recalculated it so that I can have a winner in every Tie hand I could bet up to 40 times and still be under a $500 bet, with a $4000 bank roll. Not sure what the table max bet is on that bet. Has anyone ever seen it go that many times without a tie?


Question: what is your betting increment strategy that lets you stay under a $500 bet even on your 40th bet, yet makes a profit since the last tie (or since when you started) when you do get a tie?

Also, "Has anyone ever seen it go that many times without a tie?" reminds me of my 100% Sure Fire Guaranteed Can't Miss Never Fails strategy:
1. Determine the number of consecutive results that "never" happens
2. Wait until that result happens that many times minus 1 (e.g. if "there are never 48 hands in a row without a tie," wait until there are 47)
3. Bet against the result
4. Profit!
If you lose that bet, don't blame me; you're the one that claimed that it "never" happens that many times in a row.
jjcrocco
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February 19th, 2016 at 4:34:32 PM permalink
Here are my calculations. I don't know what the max bet is, but from below you can see every time a tie happens within the 40 you either win or break even. It can be adjusted so you at least win $1 but I did the least amount of betting to still cover all previous losses. largest bet is 392. It a system that if it never goes past 40, or even 48 if you don't start betting till the first 8 pass, then you cant lose. Yes, in time it will happen, and if it happens to happen when you are betting then that's the way it goes.

# bet total bets wins profit
1 5 5 40 35
2 5 10 40 30
3 5 15 40 25
4 5 20 40 20
5 5 25 40 15
6 5 30 40 10
7 5 35 40 5
8 6 41 48 7
9 6 47 48 1
10 7 54 56 2
11 8 62 64 2
12 9 71 72 1
13 11 82 88 6
14 12 94 96 2
15 14 108 112 4
16 16 124 128 4
17 18 142 144 2
18 21 163 168 5
19 24 187 192 5
20 27 214 216 2
21 31 245 248 3
22 35 280 280 0
23 40 320 320 0
24 46 366 368 2
25 53 419 424 5
26 60 479 480 1
27 69 548 552 4
28 79 627 632 5
29 90 717 720 3
30 103 820 824 4
31 118 938 944 6
32 135 1073 1080 7
33 154 1227 1232 5
34 176 1403 1408 5
35 201 1604 1608 4
36 230 1834 1840 6
37 263 2097 2104 7
38 300 2397 2400 3
39 343 2740 2744 4
40 392 3132 3136 4

Soo, has anyone ever seen it go that many times?
ThatDonGuy
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February 19th, 2016 at 6:19:43 PM permalink
Good news: your list seems to be using 7-1 instead of 8-1 (you are subtracting your bet and then applying the 8-1 winnings).
Here is one that achieves the result without losing so much money (click on the box):

HandLossesBetWinProfit
1054040
2554035
31054030
41554025
52054020
62554015
73054010
8355405
9406488
10466482
11527564
12598645
13679725
147610804
158611882
1697131047
17110141122
18124161284
19140181444
20158201602
21178231846
22201262087
23227292325
24256332648
25289372967
26326413282
27367463681
28413524163
29465594727
30524665284
31590745922
32664846728
33748947524
348421068486
359481199524
36106713410725
37120115112087
38135217013608
39152219115286
40171321517207


However, assuming the probability of a tie happening are 1/11 (9.09%), the probability of 40 hands in a row without a tie is only about 1/45, and you are effectively wagering 1713 + 215 = 1928 on a event that, 50% of the time, pays 8 or less.

There's an idea for a side bet: 40 hands in a row without a tie pays 40-1.
CyrusV
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February 20th, 2016 at 2:27:30 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm the best baccarat player in the world.

I think the GR8 might dispute that.
Wizardofnothing
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February 20th, 2016 at 10:19:24 AM permalink
Better system- which has actually happened to me- paigowdan will hate it but
Wait for a new dealer - bet the dragon bonus and wait for him to pay you 30-1 on a natural 9 against a zero - walk away before they realize it
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
beachbumbabs
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February 20th, 2016 at 4:41:00 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Good news....
There's an idea for a side bet: 40 hands in a row without a tie pays 40-1.



PGD has a bet like this on his EZ Paigow, FWIW. Pays on the dealer's Q-high hand (which is a push). There's an electronic counter on the table that tells you how long it's been. Though I don't think there's a particular number threshold to get paid; just the event.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
miplet
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February 20th, 2016 at 6:55:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Better system- which has actually happened to me- paigowdan will hate it but
Wait for a new dealer - bet the dragon bonus and wait for him to pay you 30-1 on a natural 9 against a zero - walk away before they realize it

Wow, the best I've seen was pushing on a "Natural 6 or 7 tie". Not a +EV though.

Last edited by: miplet on Jan 1, 1970
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
beachmonkey
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April 9th, 2016 at 6:14:02 AM permalink
yes in Sydney many shoes that NO TIE at all for 60 hands and sometime 70s also some shoes only 3 ties in total. I have wagered on many thousands of shoes have boxes of recorded data. table limit is the killer as we all know. One thing I have found to use as a filter { I add that I do not bet on tie as a rule} from wagered games I notice when a banker wins with a SIX in total { we get 1/2 return on wager here which is what drew this to my attention } was that a Tie would occur within the next 8 hands. Also when Tie total is SIX{ both have total six } tie occur within 8 hands . not 100% but what is? So if I have a big bet out and its now 6 or 7 hands from last bank win of 6 in total or a 6 in total tie win { AND NO TIE BETS HAVE OCCURRED YET IN THAT SEQUENCE } I do throw a sum on tie bet has won more often than not at hand 6,7,8, and I can decrease my bet accordingly. About ten years ago I started to mark my card to show 6 banker and six tie win total. So I can say this is fact and not based on biased memorey of some random event that has occurred once or twice over 4 or 5 shoes last time I was on a holiday and went to a casino . NOT SUGGESTING THIS OF YOU JJCROCCRO SO NO OFFENCS MEANT. Maybe of some use to you in your calcutations. Beachmonkey
Wizardofnothing
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April 9th, 2016 at 7:20:16 AM permalink
Those score cards that you have will not EVER HELP you more then simply guessing the outcome / I mean absolutely zerooooooo
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
AxelWolf
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April 9th, 2016 at 3:30:14 PM permalink
http://www.vietnamopentour.com/image_vietnam/Nhatrang/dao-khi.jpg

I think I counted 79 Beach monkeys here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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April 9th, 2016 at 3:55:10 PM permalink
Pretty much think you are spot on with that/ at least he used beach and not porch
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
sisyphus
sisyphus
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May 15th, 2016 at 6:03:07 AM permalink
Wait for 40 hands in a row without a tie. Then deploy jjcrocco's system. Flying to Vegas tonight. Thanks jjcrocco.
Wizardofnothing
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Thanked by
cogger
May 15th, 2016 at 6:53:51 AM permalink
You will bring home the bank
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
cogger
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August 4th, 2020 at 12:45:37 PM permalink
Yes it seems. I have come up with my own progression for the 8:1 payouts. Practicing only it has been quite interesting. The math I wrote will allow you up to 40 bets with a 421 unit total loss. I suppose to could add to the math progression. I've gone 33 bets before resetting. Most bet progressions win under 20 bets. I stayed in the shoe at 33 realizing more ties where coming. Most shoes If I strike 4 or 5 ties under 40 hands then take the profit and run. If 2 ties come back to back early in the shoe I also leave.
OnceDear
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Thanked by
cogger
August 4th, 2020 at 1:20:47 PM permalink
Quote: cogger

Yes it seems. I have come up with my own progression for the 8:1 payouts. Practicing only it has been quite interesting. The math I wrote will allow you up to 40 bets with a 421 unit total loss. I suppose to could add to the math progression. I've gone 33 bets before resetting. Most bet progressions win under 20 bets. I stayed in the shoe at 33 realizing more ties where coming. Most shoes If I strike 4 or 5 ties under 40 hands then take the profit and run. If 2 ties come back to back early in the shoe I also leave.

If it enhances your enjoyment of the game, good on ya'
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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August 4th, 2020 at 6:12:21 PM permalink
My home game insisted on doing more than 60 Tie losses in a row twice when I started betting the Tie on the first night. These software games learn my play, give me some beginner's luck, then shut me down, hard.
cogger
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August 5th, 2020 at 3:58:09 PM permalink
Yes admin TY. It kind of does because the game itself is like watching paint dry
OnceDear
OnceDear
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August 5th, 2020 at 4:48:57 PM permalink
Quote: cogger

Yes admin TY. It kind of does because the game itself is like watching paint dry

Can't argue with that. Just remember that that is all your system will do. It won't beat the house edge and won't (of itself) make you rich.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Wizard
Administrator
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August 5th, 2020 at 4:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

My home game insisted on doing more than 60 Tie losses in a row twice when I started betting the Tie on the first night. These software games learn my play, give me some beginner's luck, then shut me down, hard.



The probability of 60 tie losses is 0.904844032^60 = 0.00247984 = apx. 1 in 403.

If you get to 140 tie losses in a row (probability 1 in 1,201,374), I'll be very interested to see evidence.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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August 5th, 2020 at 6:18:51 PM permalink
Gets a white chip tip from a millionaire...
"Yup, one in a million!"
"Gimme that back!"
gizzardsofgods
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August 16th, 2023 at 9:29:28 AM permalink
There is only one system for beating baccarat, which I will share with you fortunate souls.

1) Be Asian. Not Asian? IWell, you only need one Asian kidney (functional or not) to qualify. I know a guy who can help you out.

2) Castrate a rhinoceros. Consume one testicle, raw. Place the other testicle on your ancestral altar, so that your forefathers can bring you luck from the afterworld.

3. LV=Lucky Variance, Never enter a casino without at least 1 Louis Vuitton item.

4. Consult an astrologist on what side to bet. Do what he says.

5. Make a donation to the monks at the local pagoda.

6. Profit tenfold.

It really is that easy.
Wizard
Administrator
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August 16th, 2023 at 10:09:31 AM permalink
Quote: gizzardsofgods

There is only one system for beating baccarat, which I will share with you fortunate souls.

1) Be Asian. Not Asian? IWell, you only need one Asian kidney (functional or not) to qualify. I know a guy who can help you out.

2) Castrate a rhinoceros. Consume one testicle, raw. Place the other testicle on your ancestral altar, so that your forefathers can bring you luck from the afterworld.

3. LV=Lucky Variance, Never enter a casino without at least 1 Louis Vuitton item.

4. Consult an astrologist on what side to bet. Do what he says.

5. Make a donation to the monks at the local pagoda.

6. Profit tenfold.

It really is that easy.
link to original post



Hate speech. One month Two weeks*. Welcome to the forum.

* Adjusted down from one month, per moderator discussion.
Last edited by: Wizard on Aug 16, 2023
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Vermont12
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October 13th, 2023 at 8:57:05 PM permalink
Hi, it’s been 7 years since your post. Just wondering how you’re going with your Tie bet calculation?
iamvienna
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November 12th, 2023 at 8:32:34 AM permalink
Quote: jjcrocco

Ok, I have to see if others have had any success using the martingale system on the TIE bet in baccarat. Since it pays 8-1, you can bet 1 unit 8 times in a row and winning on the 8th hand you win 1 unit. If you lose then on the 9th-18th you bet 2 units and so on. On the 18th hand, you still win 1 unit, but if you win on the 9th hand you win 7 units. going to the next group of 8 and so on until you win.

Betting $5 8 times, then $10 8 times, then $20 8 times then $40 8 times = $600 bank roll

However, each win will win you from $5 to $40 helping to close the gap of losses on a losing streak. I have had two ties in a row, that's a $80 win.

Since a tie occurs about 9% or close to 1 in 11 hands, to lose $600 would be 32 hands in a row without a tie.

I have been practicing and never hit the 32 hands, though I have been in the $40 betting area but never busted starting out with a $600 bank.

If you have plenty of time, you can extend this to watch for no tie for 8 hands, then start betting, and the amount of hands needing to come in without a tie would now be 40. You will reduce the amount of times you win, but will decrease your chances of a losing streak.

I am sure the game has had 40 hands go without a tie. The luck on your part is that you are not betting when that occurs, and I would guess it doesn't occur that often.
link to original post




Your approach to the Martingale system on the Tie bet in baccarat is interesting. The 8-1 payout appears to be put to proper use as it is used to recover losses in this progressive betting strategy. One should also keep in mind time and table limits. This makes your experience and careful way of examining baccarat strategies interesting to learn. Best of luck!
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