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Omaha
Omaha
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:24:22 PM permalink
I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.

I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.

Thank you.
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:37:20 PM permalink
You are joking right? Great first post- I feel the ban hammer coming any minute- it was nice knowing you- well not really
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:41:09 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun

Is a horrible idea. Obviously online casinos have an incentive to gaff fun money play.

Your system will eventually fail for real money. No need to believe me. Sell everything you have and move to real money.

Send videos of you making it rain in Vegas at all the strip clubs.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Omaha
Omaha
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:42:26 PM permalink
No not a joke, and wasn't aware asking questions was against the rules
Omaha
Omaha
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:43:47 PM permalink
On this sites simulator and in connecticut
Omaha
Omaha
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:45:02 PM permalink
I'm asking for an explanation of why it will fail
thecesspit
thecesspit
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September 18th, 2014 at 11:48:09 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'm asking for an explanation of why it will fail



Any sequence of bets that doesn't hit $500 loses you your $25 stake. These happen quite often in blackjack. As your expectation on every bet is negative, your overall expectation is negative.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 19th, 2014 at 12:02:17 AM permalink
I love it , since I posted about the famous "new" member system bettors opening line.

Hi, long time lurker, I love this site and the Wizard bla, bla, bla, I know betting systems fail but.........

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amazing It got changed up with.....

"Ill get right to it."

As a new member of a site how do they know what thread to post in? My first post was probably in my own PM

OOPS, I outed another tell. The next opening line will be.

General Discussion: I'm a new member so I'm not sure where I should post this bla, bla, bla.

Any new member shouldn't have any clue what the hell I'm talking about.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 12:03:11 AM permalink
Quote:

Any sequence of bets that doesn't hit $500 loses you your $25 stake.


Not necessarily, as a blackjack along the way or a win on any double or split will atleast recoup the original $25 stake. Also when say I win 6 hands or more and win atleast $800, doesn't that recoup many if not all the small $25 losses?
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 12:05:46 AM permalink
Also any surrender after the second hand actually results in a push or a win for the sequence.
Gandler
Gandler
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September 19th, 2014 at 12:44:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Is a horrible idea. Obviously online casinos have an incentive to gaff fun money play


That may be true for unregulated casinos. But in NJ, instate online casinos have to offer free versions of the game with the same rules and probability as when you play with real money so that you can get a feel for the game first.

And you can play NJ casinos online with free money from anywhere, but you can't wager real money unless you are confirmed instate boundries. So if you want a good online casino to practice on I would try NJ online casinos. I personally enjoy Tropicana for testing games online because they have a nice really interface, and offee variety of rules for games (including single zero roulette with surrender), unlike some which are annoying and hard to find the buttons.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 19th, 2014 at 12:58:03 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler

That may be true for unregulated casinos. But in NJ, instate online casinos have to offer free versions of the game with the same rules and probability as when you play with real money so that you can get a feel for the game first.

Very good point.

I think you're a legitimate new system bettor.

However, I don't think your system will work.

what new players bonus do they offer?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:02:45 AM permalink
Gandler, sorry I thought you were the OP, my cell cuts off the view of the names sometimes in magnification mode.

No wonder you made some sense and a good point.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:37:50 AM permalink
Thank you Gandler For the suggestion. I like the trop software a lot.
My system seems to be working here too.. Up 1k (not real money) in 30 mins..

AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 19th, 2014 at 2:10:51 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

Thank you Gandler For the suggestion. I like the trop software a lot.
My system seems to be working here too.. Up 1k (not real money) in 30 mins..

Once you start playing for real money record your sessions and post them on YouTube. It will be a blast to watch.

It's funny how every system works well until you start betting real money. Gambling Gods must be up to something funny. They invented Murphy's law.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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September 19th, 2014 at 2:59:26 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It will be a blast to watch

+1

I will never understand these guys who (supposedly) have rock solid betting systems. They have two choices: (1) Go to the casino and make a ton of money, or (2) argue with people over the internet.

Why do they always choose the latter? lol...
Fighting BS one post at a time!
1BB
1BB
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September 19th, 2014 at 3:58:27 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.

I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.

Thank you.



Welcome to the forum, Omaha. I thought you might be from Nebraska but I see in another post that you play in my home state of Connecticut. Yes, I know Omaha is a type of poker.

I don't doubt your success thus far but the house edge will eventually win out. Do you keep records of your casino play? Can you estimate how many hours you have played? I'm not sure if you're playing perfect basic strategy. If you are not, you are increasing the house edge against you. I could use a few pages to debunk your system and get you on the right path but I'd like to suggest that you search the forum first. It's all there elegantly expressed by some of our most knowledgeable members.

If you are playing in Connecticut you are not playing 8 deck S17 as those rules do not exist at either casino.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
GWAE
GWAE
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:02:13 AM permalink
Not every new poster that thinks they created marty is trolling. 20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty. Actually I thought I invented it and had the greatest thing ever. It was many many years later when I started reading online that I realized I was an idiot. Luckily there were no casinos with BJ anywhere near me. I either had to go to Vegas, AC, or Canada. I did go a few times and luckily was always on the right side of variance.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.


In online practice pits, you are at a Positive Expectation Teaser Game; In the casino you are at a slight negative expectation game but so far appear to have been lucky.
WHERE are offered surrender and late surrender?
Stand on soft 17 is getting harder and harder to find.

>As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Systems are always based on there being some spin of the wheel that is in the player's favor. None are. Not ever.
terapined
terapined
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:16:06 AM permalink
Why test online where the freeplay odds are suspect.
If you want a real test, get out some decks and chips and deal a game to yourself.
Its so easy and no suspect odds from a teaser game.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
1BB
1BB
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:31:35 AM permalink
Look into Norm's Casino Verite software. You'll have hours of fun.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Mosca
Mosca
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:47:19 AM permalink
Nah, forget it, I'm not going to explain. Too many other places to look it up if the op wanted to.
A falling knife has no handle.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 19th, 2014 at 9:13:36 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.

I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.

Thank you.



Why no press to $1000? Why no play on a second spot? When do you quit? Is there a win/loss limit to your system?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
FunkyDoctor
FunkyDoctor
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September 19th, 2014 at 9:27:00 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I love it , since I posted about the famous "new" member system bettors opening line.

Hi, long time lurker, I love this site and the Wizard bla, bla, bla, I know betting systems fail but.........

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amazing It got changed up with.....

"Ill get right to it."

As a new member of a site how do they know what thread to post in? My first post was probably in my own PM

OOPS, I outed another tell. The next opening line will be.

General Discussion: I'm a new member so I'm not sure where I should post this bla, bla, bla.

Any new member shouldn't have any clue what the hell I'm talking about.



For fun, I am going to start creating new accounts here on the forum where my first post is always about my successful betting system. I am then going to take bets on the O/U for how many times I have to do this before Axel's head explodes. Let's start the wagering at 5. Who's got the under?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 19th, 2014 at 9:56:53 AM permalink
Quote: FunkyDoctor

For fun, I am going to start creating new accounts here on the forum where my first post is always about my successful betting system. I am then going to take bets on the O/U for how many times I have to do this before Axel's head explodes. Let's start the wagering at 5. Who's got the under?

Hehe... Does it actually need to splatter? What if his eyes just start bleeding?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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September 19th, 2014 at 10:13:46 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.


A few questions:

1. Are there any other surrender rules being applied or just that one?

2. If you split, and one hand wins and the other loses (or one wins and the other is surrendered), do you restart at $25?

3. If you push, and your bet is less than $500, do you repeat the bet, or increase it?

4. At what points (high and low) do you stop?
aceofspades
aceofspades
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September 19th, 2014 at 10:27:57 AM permalink
Have you tried speed count? I could teach you
petroglyph
petroglyph
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September 19th, 2014 at 10:47:36 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Not every new poster that thinks they created marty is trolling. 20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty. Actually I thought I invented it and had the greatest thing ever. It was many many years later when I started reading online that I realized I was an idiot. Luckily there were no casinos with BJ anywhere near me. I either had to go to Vegas, AC, or Canada. I did go a few times and luckily was always on the right side of variance.




I got a chuckle here. I thought I invented di. lol
Artemis
Artemis
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September 19th, 2014 at 11:24:54 AM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.

I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.

Thank you.







Omaha, please don't bet your real money until you know your odd of going br0ke on your double-up-betting system.

Here are the loss-in-the-row-info for the game of blackjack (see the picture below for details), which is a near 50%-chance of win or loss.

75%- 50%- 25%- <1%
Expected- Expected- Expected- Expected-
to- to- to- to-
Lose- Lose- Lose- Lose-
in- in- in- in-
the row the row the row the row


7 9 11 15



Thanks goodness for Google for finding this chart of "going br0ke".

I'm OK with Corps which pick and choose clienteles. Both insurance companies and casinos have the right to pick and choose customers. They may keep profitable ones and kicked out the rest. But, I'm not OK with a casino supervisor who says counting cards... is like stealing food from a buffet (a foodlifting offense), or video-taping a movie in a cinema (a piracy offense).
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 19th, 2014 at 11:38:34 AM permalink
Didn't some CEO buy in for $10000 and win a few million with a similar betting strategy?
I am a robot.
Gandler
Gandler
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September 19th, 2014 at 11:49:30 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Gandler, sorry I thought you were the OP, my cell cuts off the view of the names sometimes in magnification mode.

No wonder you made some sense and a good point.


It's all good.
But to answer your previous question:Trop offers 10 bucks just for signing up and various lost rebates (I forget the rates and such but on their site check their site on the offers section or something like that, I'm on phone right now and can't see). And sometimes they have special additional deals like 10% loss rebates on certain weekends etc...

But speaking strictly for incentives, Trop is not the best, some offer 100% deposit match instantly deposited up to 600 dollars (when I joined trop they only offered up to 50 but I joined when they first opened so it may be better now for new customers). But I like the Trop for the games, great rules on all of their games, and I could be wrong, but I think they are the only NJ site to feature online baccarat. Now if they just made a online poker section, they would be perfect.
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:00:16 PM permalink
Quote:

A few questions:

1. Are there any other surrender rules being applied or just that one?

2. If you split, and one hand wins and the other loses (or one wins and the other is surrendered), do you restart at $25?

3. If you push, and your bet is less than $500, do you repeat the bet, or increase it?

4. At what points (high and low) do you stop?



1. When the bet is $400 or $500 i will surrender a 15 against a 9 or 10, and a 16 against a 9

2. If the overall hand is a push, i will repeat the same bet in the sequence.

3. Repeat

4. I stop if I lose $1500. When I get to $5000, I move to a black table and sequence goes $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $2500, $2500, $2500... etc...
I call it a day when i get back down to around $3,000, or cash at $20,000.
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:09:11 PM permalink
Im going to Mohegen in a few hours, as I have had success the last two weekends. I will not gamble online.
Omaha
Omaha
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:18:52 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB



If you are playing in Connecticut you are not playing 8 deck S17 as those rules do not exist at either casino.



You are correct. It is 6 deck stand on soft 17 and late surrender is offered on all tables. On the wizard of odds blackjack simulator I had it set at 8 decks.
Romes
Romes
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:25:27 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

Im going to Mohegen in a few hours, as I have had success the last two weekends. I will not gamble online.


Please post as detailed results as possible.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2014 at 1:52:07 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty.



Almost 40 yrs ago somebody showed me the Marty idea. I was stunned and couldn't debunk it , the main reason being I considered the "double or nothing" bet in private betting to be a sucker bet. And here you could force the casino to accept them; seemed brilliant.

You couldnt just go on the internet back then to debunk things either.

I am glad to say I didn't make myself a victim of it; on the other hand, I figured out right away I didnt have the funds.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
1BB
1BB
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September 19th, 2014 at 4:06:42 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

You are correct. It is 6 deck stand on soft 17 and late surrender is offered on all tables. On the wizard of odds blackjack simulator I had it set at 8 decks.



Foxwoods' high limit rooms have the same rules at $50 minimums and up depending on traffic. The main floors are all 8 deck H17.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Omaha
Omaha
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September 20th, 2014 at 3:19:14 AM permalink


So far so good. Up 1600 after 4 hours.
Only got blackjack twice and the dealer got it over a dozen times.
I should be up another 400 but choked when I should have doubled a 9 into dealers 4.
Taking a break .
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 20th, 2014 at 3:30:17 AM permalink
are you playing with Phil Ivey?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
dwheatley
dwheatley
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September 20th, 2014 at 1:41:26 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'm asking for an explanation of why it will fail



It will fail because:

E[X] + E[Y] = E[X+Y]

That is all. Dr. D out.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
OnceDear
OnceDear
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September 20th, 2014 at 1:47:54 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha


So far so good. Up 1600 after 4 hours.
Only got blackjack twice and the dealer got it over a dozen times.
I should be up another 400 but choked when I should have doubled a 9 into dealers 4.
Taking a break .



Enjoy it while it lasts.
And baulking at what BS tells you, tells me that you are doomed to lose faster and sooner.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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September 20th, 2014 at 1:52:46 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha


$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

I really cannot be ar5ed explaining why it will fail in terms that you will value. Please continue to do this in practice. You will get your own proof soon enough.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
djatc
djatc
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September 20th, 2014 at 3:23:05 PM permalink
I have a lot of respect for you trying this system with real money, although you'll lose it all eventually.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
WBGamble
WBGamble
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September 20th, 2014 at 5:00:47 PM permalink
Send me a PM if you want to grab a beer or some food at Mohegan Sun. I'd like to see the system in action.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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September 20th, 2014 at 7:32:46 PM permalink
Quote: Omaha

I'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....

Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.

8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.

I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.

Thank you.



Debunking:

Use Wizard's Blackjack appendix 4 that shows the result of a hand and the probability of winning n units for a hand using perfect strategy and 6 decks.

"•Six decks
•Dealer stands on soft 17
•Double on any first two cards
•Double after split allowed
•Late surrender allowed
•Resplit aces allowed
•Player may resplit to four hands"

Set goals of double your money (end with $2,000) or lose it all (end with <$25), using the bet progression that you illustrated. Plug it into excel using the random number generator and generate a bunch of results, based on 1,000,000 hands. Well, there was a total of 13,649 sessions, with a average loss of .00395% (this ensures accuracy and tells me that my results are close to Mike's HA of .00290361).

You busted out 7,635 times and hit $2,000 6,014 times for a net loss of $1,631,000.

So, let's try the "turn into $5,000" quickly and rejig the stimulator.

There was a total of 4,112 sessions. You busted out 3,363 times (lose $3,363,000) and won 749 times (win $2,996,000) for a net loss of only $367,000.

This is due to E[x] + E[y] = E[x+y] and there is absolutely nothing you can do (unless you are counting cards or cheating) to get around that fact.

So yeah, I call bullshit.

Please send your check or money order to Boymimbo Enterprises at the Revel Casino.

Thank you, and good night.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
tringlomane
tringlomane
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September 20th, 2014 at 9:35:00 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Not every new poster that thinks they created marty is trolling. 20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty. Actually I thought I invented it and had the greatest thing ever. It was many many years later when I started reading online that I realized I was an idiot. Luckily there were no casinos with BJ anywhere near me. I either had to go to Vegas, AC, or Canada. I did go a few times and luckily was always on the right side of variance.



Yeah you definitely lucked out to an extent. Your story is a good example why people think Martingale betting systems work. Because most of the time they do win for a SMALL amount! But when they don't, they hemorrhage money for a GIGANTIC amount!!!! And that GIGANTIC amount will typically outweigh the sum of all their small wins.

Boymimbo backed the general statement above with simulation data.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 21st, 2014 at 4:18:59 AM permalink
If I was a mathematician I would try to prove my current theory, which is that it you would get the same results with system one as system 2 below. By same results I mean percentage of sessions that win on average.

#1] a system that has you doubling your bets on the prompt that you just lost a bet - the Martingale

#2] a system that has you doubling your bets on a different prompt, such as when a good looking cocktail waitress walks by.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
mustangsally
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September 21st, 2014 at 12:49:05 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Set goals of double your money (end with $2,000) or lose it all (end with <$25), using the bet progression that you illustrated.

You busted out 7,635 times and hit $2,000 6,014 times for a net loss of $1,631,000.

OP was successful
6,014 / 6,014+7,635 = 44.061836%
of course success to double >0

my matrix calculation method shows success =44.028322% (this does over-shoot the target too, so this value could be increased)

of course, one could double a bankroll at Roulette with probabilities of 18/38 or 18/37 or at other games at around 49.3% instead of just a poor 44%

buts
may not have as much fun doing it!
Quote: boymimbo

So, let's try the "turn into $5,000" quickly and rejig the stimulator.

okay you do that and
I change one value in my matrix.
Eye ready

Quote: boymimbo

There was a total of 4,112 sessions. You busted out 3,363 times (lose $3,363,000) and won 749 times <snip> <snip>

OP was successful
749 / 4,112 = 18.214981%

me calculations (less than 1/2 second - I blinked) for $1000 to $5000 = 18.717778%
(average number of rounds to target = 278.53, median = 213)

still >0 but less than 1 in 5

or in other words,
the OP gets 1 million believers in this (his?) excellent betting system of BJ play
and they all try to turn 1000 into 5000
well, looks like 182,150 were successful - yea!
Yahoo!!








and the other
817,850 went back to watching TV and eating Skittles $1000 less in their pockets
the VAST and not silent MAJORITY

But what a fun system!
this was fun

system not debunked
but other systems can do better at hitting win goals, in my opinions

remember tooooo, that the probabilities expressed to successful win goal attainments are for a one time event
try turning 1000 into 5000 two times in a row = p*p (0.18*0.18)

still, fun trying!
Sally says so
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
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September 21st, 2014 at 1:02:31 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I have a lot of respect for you trying this system with real money,

It is way fun!

Oh, what just flat bet $25 like the Wizard recommends

not much fun there I seeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

what do you reccommend and please consider the fun factor that all gaming writers never touch.
Quote: djatc

although you'll lose it all eventually.

not at all true.

but thank you for sharing your non-professional opinion
and NOT showing any math


after turning $1000 into $10000
probability >0
one can just not play that BJ any more and will never lose it all, just one example

but I gather you are saying if OP keeps playing, his original bankroll plus all winnings will all be lost.

this is your opinion and have not proven this at all

this is true if you consider all time, playing forever

not true when playing less than forever or for a finite length of time
probability of eventual ruin = 1 as number of hands played -> forever

no one plays forever, so what is the chance of giving it all back in say, 200 attempts?

my opinion <1

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Omaha
Omaha
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September 21st, 2014 at 2:16:53 PM permalink
Back home and back to where I started.. after immediately winning another $1000 after my last post, FOUR times I was dealt an 8 and 3 against a dealers 4 or 5 at the $400 or $500 bet level. All four times I doubled and lost. It was a danger I was aware of, because instead of losing $25 for the sequence despite a $400 or $500 bet loss (actually at the $500 level a loss is a $275 win for the sequence), each loss in this position is an additional loss of $400 or $500 in the double bet, or 16 or 20 whole sequences. Down $400 for the trip and back again to try in a couple weeks. I am still convinced in the potential in this system, as the odds mathematically favor a win in these positions. Earlier in my trip i had a double hand when up to $400 and didnt do it. I wouldve won the hand.

What are the odds of winning doubling with at eleven against a dealers 4, 5, and 6? or any card for that matter? I am wrong to believe they are extremely favorable and I got VERY unlucky?
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