50 blacks in a row
Quote: 7crapsthe math says so with a probability of
0.998557751109999000 to make $10,000 (but you would have to risk way more than $500. $11k gets you to 40 losses)
14 out of 10,000 trying this on average would not make it
Go for it!
Oh, it is online casino
and you trust them?
to make 10 trillion bets and win $100,000 = 0.985670755691278000
for a cool $1 million and 100 trillion bets = 0.865602923732233000
risk there
maybe this is too much info
the online casino, to a degree. the point is the number im working with should be small enough not to matter. and the betting can be done while keeping no actualy money on site.
so if my chances are 9,986/10,000 to make $10,000 I would consider this a good bet.
however thats also what the other 14 people said.
Quote: beachbumbabsIt's been fun playing with numbers. Time to hit the sack. Good luck!
Lol thank you. I may even try it. if i did i would post the results here, if anyone cared.
For the record, everyone knows it will fail after 10 trillion trials, or whatever. The question was at what point is the system more likely to succeed than fail, meaning how far can i increase my original bet. Say starting at .00000001 means the martingale 50x step will fail 1 in every 10 trillion or whatever. That means I can start at .00000512 and do a 40x martingale that fails once every 5trillion(or whatever) times and do this 1,000 times and increase profit per hour.
Hope this made sense...
(.505)^50 = 1.4607265e-15
1.4607265e-15 = 0.0000000000000014607265
(1 - 1.4607265e-15)^x = .5
x = 480254982166566
Proof: (1-0.0000000000000014607265 )^480254982166566 = 0.49999999999999983
Okay, so at the 480,254,982,166,566th attempt, or before, you have the closest probability to 50% (without being less than 50%) to have experienced a failure.
I hope that's right, I couldn't find an on-line calculator willing to do it, so I had to trial-and-error that s***!
Hopefully you got some small enjoyment out of figuring it out.
Quote: tehepidemick1even if the risk is .00000000000000000001?
The risk is only that small if you're willing to wager a ridiculous amount in an attempt to earn a fraction of a penny.
You're focusing on the odds of winning, but even if you had a perfectly even game with no house edge (win or lose with 50% each), playing the martingale is still a bad idea. A 50-step martingale requires you to be willing to wager over 1.1 quadrillion units, and have a bankroll of over 2.2 quadrillion units, just to win one unit. That's on a game with zero edge.
I'm guessing that you don't have 1.1 quadrillion of anything, at least not anything with meaningful value. What I mean by that is that if you want to chop up whatever currency into some infinitesimal amount just so you can say "okay, now I have 1.1 quadrillion tiny parts of a bitcoin" or whatever you're using, then you're still just playing for one (1) of those tiny parts. Your example earlier was 0.0019 of a cent. Your expected hourly gain in dollars is greater simply by walking around and picking up dropped coins on the sidewalk. Plus, if you're really playing for units of $0.000019 then you still need a bankroll of $42 billion in order to survive a potential 49-loss streak and make your 50th bet. You don't have $42 billion, and if you did, you wouldn't be worried about fractions of a penny.
Quote: tehepidemick1Its amazing you would take the time to figure out the equation. Thank you.
Hopefully you got some small enjoyment out of figuring it out.
You're welcome, and I must admit that I did not. I could not find an equation solver to solve for x because none of them wanted to deal with numbers that big or small, so I trial-and-erred for twenty minutes until I found the 50% point.
You can use the decimal form of what is inside of the parenthesis and replace, "X," with any number you want to get the probability of that many consecutive successful attempts.
Quote: sodawaterLet me simplify it for you.
Say there's a drum with 9 red balls and 1 black ball. You get to reach in blindfolded and pick a ball. If you get a red ball, I give you $1. If you get a black ball, you give me $20.
You will win 90% of the time. If you do it 1 time, there is a 90% chance I will have to pay you.
Doesn't change the fact that it's not worth doing at all.
Yet, If you had $1000 to make one bet you would put it on one number on roulette wouldn't you? The chances of winning that are slim and the chances of winning tehepidemick1's are better than that in the short term? Right?
Quote: anonimussNever mind. I read the title and thought this thread was about stop and frisk.
I thought it was about a line at a bus stop in Baltimore.
Looks like you used ExcelQuote: Mission146Proof: (1-0.0000000000000014607265 )^480254982166566 = 0.49999999999999983
Okay, so at the 480,254,982,166,566th attempt, or before, you have the closest probability to 50% (without being less than 50%) to have experienced a failure.
I hope that's right, I couldn't find an on-line calculator willing to do it, so I had to trial-and-error that s***!
I tried that first too.
=LOG(0.5,1-0.505^50) = 480,254,982,166,566
and one should know to check Excel's results with a precision program
maybe WolframAlpha (R can do this also)
(1-.505^50)^480254982166566 =
0.495830484589607650428701222941994789495604237785966818882098...
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.505%5E50%29%5E480254982166566
now try LOG(1-0.505^50,0.5) =
4.7452222172480305979674509343740838672611883665811624963... × 10^14
or 474,522,221,724,803.05979674509343740838672611883665811624963
(1-.505^50)^474522221724803.05979674509343740838672611883665811624963 = .5
not that an exact (still rounded) answer is really wanted or needed
but can be found
added:
in other words
to win
474,522,221,724,803 progressions in a row without a loss = about
0.500000000000000043673344862040440565896488832266448229641027...
that looks to be a coin flip
that still brings up how long will it take to complete just 1 billion progressions
since the average length of each progression is 1-q^m/1-q = 2.0202
number of coups = 2.02 Billion
how many bets per second?
And while it's true that I could make more money walking out and picking up coins, that requires effort, and I am a very tall person.
Quote: tehepidemick1That's roughly correct, however as the martingale progress to betting an amount over .01 the number of bets increases to about 15 per second. Also while starting at .00000001 and progressing to a 50x martingale, you could begin at .0001 and progress to say a 40 step martingale to increase your profit and decrease the time spent to obtain the profit.
And while it's true that I could make more money walking out and picking up coins, that requires effort, and I am a very tall person.
Didn't realize there was a variation in bet speed, thanks for clarifying, tehe.
Very funny re: picking up coins! I am also a tall person; thanks for the laugh!
Either your risk of ruin is too high, or your return is too low. Or both.
It's insane that this even has to be explained so many times.
As pointed out before me, the martingale doesn't even make sense in a fair game, i.e. 0 house edge. It's even worse in a negative game.
Quote: sodawaterIt's insane that this even has to be explained so many times.
+1
Quote: sodawaterDo you understand yet that the martingale never works in a negative game?
Either your risk of ruin is too high, or your return is too low. Or both.
It's insane that this even has to be explained so many times.
As pointed out before me, the martingale doesn't even make sense in a fair game, i.e. 0 house edge. It's even worse in a negative game.
By missions math until I reach sequence number 480,254,982,166,566th I have a greater than 50 percent chance to not reach the moment of ruin. That means for the first 10 triillion bets my chances o f success are what 99 percent? Translated this means with a maximum risk of 1000 I can expect a 99.99 percent chance to win $190
And if I wanted to gamble doing 100 trillion bets leaves me a 90 percent favorite to win 1900.
Quote: tehepidemick1By missions math until I reach sequence number 480,254,982,166,566th I have a greater than 50 percent chance to not reach the moment of ruin. That means for the first 10 triillion bets my chances o f success are what 99 percent? Translated this means with a maximum risk of 1000 I can expect a 99.99 percent chance to win $190
try again
1 in 4.43 *10^15.
Lets look at it another way... if you travelled at the speed of light for 468 years and 4 months you would get there.
Quote: 98ClubsLets see... Single Zero the chance of Black is 18/37. The chance of 50 Blacks in a row is (18/37)^50. That works out to be
1 in 4.43 *10^15.
Lets look at it another way... if you travelled at the speed of light for 468 years and 4 months you would get there.
Exactly. So making the bet 5 times a second what are the chances the moment occurs in your lifetime.
Quote: sodawatertry again
I'm not the best at math and could have easily miscalculated, but can you show me where?
Quote: beachbumbabsDidn't realize there was a variation in bet speed, thanks for clarifying, tehe.
Very funny re: picking up coins! I am also a tall person; thanks for the laugh!
Right, minimum bets are delayed by the server for .2 second to speed up the servers handling speed and protect from DDOS. Bets that are higher are responded to instantly. And yeah figured I'd lighten the mood some.
his numbers are not correctQuote: tehepidemick1By missions math until I reach sequence number 480,254,982,166,566th I have a greater than 50 percent chance to not reach the moment of ruin. That means for the first 10 triillion bets my chances o f success are what 99 percent? Translated this means with a maximum risk of 1000 I can expect a 99.99 percent chance to win $190
And if I wanted to gamble doing 100 trillion bets leaves me a 90 percent favorite to win 1900.
use WolframAlpha to get a better answer as I did in my last post before last
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.505%5E50%29%5E10000000000000
10 trillion bets win success without a loss
0.985498903596602427584885174707807820807961387447767522468476...
145 out of 10,000 would lose 50 in a row, on average
100 trillion bets success without a loss
0.864094925054848525539132258814363138736821975616785260017384...
1,359 out if 10,000 would lose 50 in a row, on average
your net win .00000001 units on each win
10 trillion wins = 100,000 units won
100 trillion wins = 1,000,000 units won
still boils down to how many units you can win per day
it does not look like you can do more than 1 million bets per day.
remember it requires on average 2.02 bets to show a net win
and 1 trillion is 1 million * 1 million
now you want to go down to a 40step marty
your winning probability overall will decline
you should be able to do the math from here
just remember
1 trillion = 1 million * 1 million
Quote: 7crapshis numbers are not correct
WolframAlpha are closer to exact
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.505%5E50%29%5E10000000000000
10 trillion bets win success without a loss
0.985498903596602427584885174707807820807961387447767522468476...
145 out of 10,000 would lose 50 in a row, on average
100 trillion bets success without a loss
0.864094925054848525539132258814363138736821975616785260017384...
1,359 out if 10,000 would lose 50 in a row, on average
your net win .00000001 units on each win
10 trillion wins = 100,000 units won
100 trillion wins = 1,000,000 units won
still boils down to how many units you can win per day
it does not look like you can do more than 1 million bets per day.
remember it requires on average 2.02 bets to show a net win
and 1 trillion is 1 million * 1million
Right. It's a multithreaded program. I can probably do 4 million bets per day easily.
However beginning with a starting bet of .00000002 and doing a 49 step martingale would double the units won in a smaller timeframe with less total bets made, however it would also decrease the chance of winning to probably .97148
Also 100 trillion bets give me a 75 percent chance to profit 1900 with a 1000 risk.
sounds great.Quote: tehepidemick1Right. It's a multithreaded program. I can probably do 4 million bets per day easily.
However beginning with a starting bet of .00000002 and doing a 49 step martingale would double the units won in a smaller timeframe with less total bets made, however it would also decrease the chance of winning to probably .97148
also consider in your math of this
4 million bets easily each day = less than 2 million winning bets
I would make it so I could do 2 billion bets each day as 1 trillion wins is just 1 billion *1,000 days
when do you start?
Quote: 7crapssounds great.
also consider in your math of this
4 million bets easily each day = less than 2 million winning bets
I would make it so I could do 2 billion bets each day as 1 trillion wins is just 1 billion *1,000 days
when do you start?
Wish I would have started 10,000 years ago.
If you get a chance to check my math on this...
http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.505%5E25%29%5E1000000&x=-988&y=-71
Starting at .01 and doubling 25 times means you have a .96 chance to win 1 million bets in a row which equates to 10,000 units. Is this right?
yesQuote: tehepidemick1Starting at .01 and doubling 25 times means you have a .96 chance to win 1 million bets in a row which equates to 10,000 units. Is this right?
but maybe you also saw
(1-.505^30)^10,000,000 = 0.9875256 = 100,000 units
that is greater than
(1-.505^25)^1,000,000 = 0.96250
Quote: tehepidemick1
Starting at .01 and doubling 25 times means you have a .96 chance to win 1 million bets in a row which equates to 10,000 units. Is this right?
Did we ever establish just which casino is going to be letting you do this?
There is some online casino, well its not a casino its more like some archaic webpage that looks more like a stock numbers/ticker that uses Bitcoins or something like that. Its like a -1% super fast roulette game where you don't see the ball spin. You can pick reds or blacks possibly some other things on some super fast random number generator, there are thousands of bets going all the time at fractions of pennies. It has all the stats of all the bests and everything you can think of from what I can remember. Its very interesting from a gambling uniqueness. and If is all on the up and up, I think its a awesome idea it could be a big moneymaker. Not good from a gambling or money point of view.Quote: FleaStiffDid we ever establish just which casino is going to be letting you do this?
Quote: 7crapsyes
but maybe you also saw
(1-.505^30)^10,000,000 = 0.9875256 = 100,000 units
that is greater than
(1-.505^25)^1,000,000 = 0.96250
That's right. I'm only ran it to 25 steps. You've posted the math multiple times. You've also posted go for it or equilivant answers, I can't tell if it's sarcastic or not. Since you obviously see what I am trying to accomplish, do you think this is a good idea?
Quote: FleaStiffDid we ever establish just which casino is going to be letting you do this?
Exactly as this guy answers
Quote: AxelWolfThere is some online casino, well its not a casino its more like some archaic webpage that looks more like a stock numbers/ticker that uses Bitcoins or something like that. Its like a -1% super fast roulette game where you don't see the ball spin. You can pick reds or blacks possibly some other things on some super fast random number generator, there are thousands of bets going all the time at fractions of pennies. It has all the stats of all the bests and everything you can think of from what I can remember. Its very interesting from a gambling uniqueness. and If is all on the up and up, I think its a awesome idea it could be a big moneymaker. Not good from a gambling or money point of view.
And as far as the up and up thing, they give you the algorithm and the hash code, meaning you can check the legitness of the roll after the fact.
OK, now say you accounted everything in a very exact manner and fully acknowledged your risks. And you indeed make that 30$ per day without any effort on your side, and you are now happy seeing your monthly income just growing with another $900 a month. In four months you just won $3.6K which is a third of your total risk. So cool so far so good. Suddenly the next morning you find somehow you must be one of the unluckiest persons of this planet because you just lost 50 times in a row on a almost flip coin game!
WTF you will probably say, I was expecting to lose this amount in 38 MILLION YEARS and I lost it in just 4 MONTHS ? - Then you do all the calculation again, and see you did nothing wrong. - Considering you will still have another $10K (more precisely $6.4K because you have previously won $3.6K) will you now TRY AGAIN with the same scheme considering TWICE in a lifetime IS IMPOSSIBLE ?
If you will ask me at that time, I will again tell you: "SURE GO FOR IT, to lose 50 in a row twice in a lifetime it is not only impossible, but can not even happen in the worst nightmares of a man if the game is fair." Then there you go, and throw another ~ $10K on fire...
