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sleepyeyed
sleepyeyed
Joined: Dec 12, 2013
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December 12th, 2013 at 9:26:49 PM permalink
Hey everyone, this is my first post here and although I'm not really a big gambler, I am particularly fascinated with Roulette and I thought I'd share my strategy with you. It's basically a sleeper system, but with some guidelines.

This strategy is for European Roulette and assumes that there is an outside bet limit of $250 and a minimum bet of $1 with a bankroll of $2000. It's a grind strategy so you'd never be able to use this strategy in a real casino unless you planned on staying there for a very long time.

Place a $1 chip on each one of the red and black spots and spin the wheel noting the number each time and also noting how often the numbers come up. Using software like Spingold (no I don't work for them) to track the numbers is very helpful for this strategy. Keep doing this until all numbers have come up at least once except for one number. You'll probably lose a few dollars on the zero, but that's the price you pay for having the numbers to go by. Anyway, once you have the one number which hasn't been hit yet then start a betting progression on that number as follows until you get a win:

Bet $ 1 for 35 spins.
Bet $ 2 for 18 spins.
Bet $ 3 for 12 spins.
Bet $ 4 for 9 spins.
Bet $ 5 for 7 spins.
Bet $ 6 for 6 spins.
Bet $ 7 for 5 spins.
Bet $ 8 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 9 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 10 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 11 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 12 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 13 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 14 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 15 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 16 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 17 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 18 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 19 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 20 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 21 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 22 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 23 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 24 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 25 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 26 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 27 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 28 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 29 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 30 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 31 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 32 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 33 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 34 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 35 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 36 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 37 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 38 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 39 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 40 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 41 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 43 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 44 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 45 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 46 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 48 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 49 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 50 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 52 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 53 for 1 spins.

Over 150 spins have gone by and the likelihood of hitting your number is good. The probability of you busting out in the first round of this strategy is about 1.7%, so there's about a 98.3% chance that you'll hit within 150 spins.

Once you hit your number then it's time to move on the the second least hit number in your list of recorded numbers and start the progression from the beginning again with your $1 bet.

After that it's just a matter of always betting the least hit number and working the progression.

Just FYI…

It would take you 216 spins to reach a $244 bet if the table limit is $250. Once you have identified your first sleeper number you'd have to have a bankroll of $8769 in order to reach the table limit in that first round, but your risk of ruin out would be drastically reduced to approximately .2%, that's about a 99.8% chance of winning.

Is my math wrong here? If I took $9000 to an online casino and wrote a program to automate this strategy could I possibly have a 99.8% chance of winning? It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game. I'm very curious to know what everyone thinks and I appreciate you taking the time to check this out.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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December 12th, 2013 at 9:34:20 PM permalink
Quote: sleepyeyed



Over 150 spins have gone by and the likelihood of hitting your number is good.



Classic Gamblers Fallacy in all its glory.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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December 12th, 2013 at 9:38:02 PM permalink
No. It does nothing to help you win more on average than flat-betting. And no, I'm not going to bother to do the math. You would expect to lose 2.7% of the total amount wagered betting this, or betting $1 for every spin instead. Betting schemes just adjust the overall distribution of your final results NOT your average result.

Maybe your method would allow you to win a small amount 99.8% of the time (assuming your math is correct; I have no idea), but I pity you if you lose almost $9000 on that 1 in 500 chance of bad luck. And of course, your average result will be losing 2.7% of whatever your total wagers are.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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December 12th, 2013 at 9:44:28 PM permalink
On Roulette there is no way of getting away from the 2.7% HA because the events are all independent outcomes (probability). Doesn't matter what you do, the HA will always be 2.7%.

That can NEVER change!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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December 12th, 2013 at 9:49:41 PM permalink
Quote: sleepyeyed

It would take you 216 spins to reach a $244 bet if the table limit is $250. Once you have identified your first sleeper number you'd have to have a bankroll of $8769 in order to reach the table limit in that first round, but your risk of ruin out would be drastically reduced to approximately .2%, that's about a 99.8% chance of winning.

Is my math wrong here? If I took $9000 to an online casino and wrote a program to automate this strategy could I possibly have a 99.8% chance of winning? It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game. I'm very curious to know what everyone thinks and I appreciate you taking the time to check this out.

I agree you are not at all changing the house edge.

Your math looks good
I get
0.0027 = probability of a loss (1 in 372 attempts)
0.9973 = probability of a win

You plan on doing this more than 1 time?
I would guess yes to that.

You have about a 50/50 shot to win more than 256 times in row
0.9973^256
How much can you net win at that point? More than 9G?

I say you are gambling!
Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 13th, 2013 at 6:47:12 AM permalink
First: There's no reason to believe that a cold number is "Due". A cold number is just as likely to remain cold.

Second: It's likely that there will be multiple cold numbers that remain cold so long that you're there all day waiting to find that one number that hasn't hit at all. And while doing that, you've lost a bunch of times when the Zero shows up - unless the Zero is the one that's cold.

Therefore, if you're gonna use your system, you might as well just pick a number and be done with it. When it finally hits, start over. And when you start over, there's no reason to not continue with the same number.

Third: When you finally succeed, how much did you win? Are you really gonna risk thousands to win a few bucks?

Fourth: Sooner or later, your system will cause you to lose that $9,000 bankroll. Then what? Continue to bet at the table maximum hoping to recoup some of your losses? How long are you gonna do that?


In short, it's hard to believe that a 1 in 37 event can go 200 trials without occurring. But think about it. That's not much of a Standard Deviation. Do you really want to be standing at the table when it happens?


Bottom line: You can get "lucky". But you can't win - OR change the house edge.



Quote: EvenBob

Classic Gamblers Fallacy in all its glory.

Bingo.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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December 13th, 2013 at 8:26:42 AM permalink
I believe the reported record for a number not showing is 437 spins. Something like that.......not sure who was counting and why. This system would have me calling a cab every night to get home. The Roulette games in Cincy have slowed to a crawl. Maybe 40 spins an hour if your lucky.
Each day is better than the next
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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December 13th, 2013 at 8:33:50 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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December 13th, 2013 at 8:39:04 AM permalink
Quote: sleepyeyed

It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game.

a proof the house edge does not change no matter how your betting is structured, I took your betting progression as posted

it covers 162 spins at $1901 total bankroll needed.
prob of a system loss = (36/37)^162 = 0.011812
1 - 0.011812 = 0.988188 = prob of a system win for one attempt

avg win = 19.70587226
(the sumproduct of the probability of a win at each spin and the net $ win)
avg loss = 22.45473542 (0.011812065 * 1901)
ev (expected value) = 19.70587226 - 22.45473542 = -2.748863162
some rounding in the values
you can double-check my math
photo time

now we need the total average bet over the system
(the sumproduct of the probability of making the bet at each spin and the $ bet at each spin)
101.707937

house edge = ev / total avg$Bet
-2.748863162 / 101.707937 = -0.027027027

the house edge for single zero Roulette betting one number is -1/37 or -0.027027027

looks like the house edge did not change one bit

This is why the Wizard says
"Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it."

added:
Now, with an avg $win of 19.70587226 (this looks good)
you would need to win 97 times in a row to cover your first loss of $1901

That probability = 0.988188^97 = 0.3158194
Less than a 1 in 3 shot
(at least not close to 0% but 31.5% is not that good -
one could double the bankroll of $1901 with a probability of 48.6%, close to 50%,
by betting all $1901 on the very next spin on any even money bet)

still is all gambling
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 13th, 2013 at 10:23:45 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

40 spins per hour would be super fast up here.


In all fairness, the OP did mention online casinos, and even talked about setting up a routine / bot to run the system.

So at least he's got THAT part right....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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