Baccarat System Challenge
Quote: EdgeLookerAnyone know if any casinos ever banned a player from playing baccarat for winning too much? (Not cheating or using extra info like card sorting)
I was reading differnet posts in this forum about heat in the Casino and I gues most of them said if you start winning on a regular basis they can kick you out (ban you) for no reason as its private property
Quote: novicegamblerAround 50 - 100 units
Do you understand what "unit" means? For the purposes of this discussion, a unit is equal to the smallest non-zero amount you wager during your progression. The Martingale progression system is bet one unit, then every hand afterwards is double the prior bet if it lost, bet one if it won.
So let's try again. In terms of the smallest bet you make, how many units is your win target, and how many units would you lose if you lost all 82 hands in a shoe?
Quote: novicegamblerI thought Vince is a canadian and he is travelling to US
I think you are right, Vince is Canadian, and seemed like a fun guy.
I probably shouldn't have mentioned the twenty to the border guards, that is probably a real bad idea.
Quote: MathExtremistDo you understand what "unit" means? For the purposes of this discussion, a unit is equal to the smallest non-zero amount you wager during your progression. The Martingale progression system is bet one unit, then every hand afterwards is double the prior bet if it lost, bet one if it won.
So let's try again. In terms of the smallest bet you make, how many units is your win target, and how many units would you lose if you lost all 82 hands in a shoe?
I understand what a "unit" is.
To keep it simple for a novice like me. If the table limit is $5 to $1000. $5 is one unit
Because you talked about how much money your family and your dad has. Yet you dance around how much money you have, as is apparent in how you just carefully replied to my question "I would like to belive I do"Quote: novicegambler
Lol.. Why do you wanna know if I have few millions ? To answer your question I would like to belive I do
We would all like to, BELIEVE we do.
I assure you, I don't want to know for Nefarious reasons. I just don't want a situation, where if you are found out to have little or no money, you can fall back and say, you never actually claimed to be rich or have tons of money.
I just want a simple answer, yes or no to whether or not you have lots of money, lots of money = in the millions
Quote: AxelWolfBecause you talked about how much money your family and your dad has. Yet you dance around how much money you have, as is apparent in how you just carefully replied to my question "I would like to belive I do"
We would all like to, BELIEVE we do.
I assure you, I don't want to know for Nefarious reasons. I just don't want a situation, where if you are found out to have little or no money, you can fall back and say, you never actually claimed to be rich or have tons of money.
I just want a simple answer, yes or no to whether or not you have lots of money, lots of money = in the millions
That was just a sarcastic answer, coz if my dad has that much money its understood I am not poor or that I can afford my losses from the Casino if any
I didnt bring the money topic in, unless people started blaming me that oh you are doing all this to make money, trying to sell, etc
I have more than a million dollar that I can use at any given second
Quote: novicegamblerI understand what a "unit" is.
To keep it simple for a novice like me. If the table limit is $5 to $1000. $5 is one unit
To summarize, at a $5 table, you win between $250 and $500 every shoe. If you were to lose, which you never do, you would lose only $850 to $900.
Is that accurate?
Quote: MathExtremistTo summarize, at a $5 table, you win between $250 and $500 every shoe. If you were to lose, which you never do, you would lose only $850 to $900.
Is that accurate?
Yes.
Quote: novicegamblerI have more than a million dollar that I can use at any given second
So how did you hear about this forum anyway? As soon as you joined, you started posting in the varmenti-related baccarat threads. In fact, virtually ALL of your posts are related to baccarat.
Quote: Beethoven9thSo how did you hear about this forum anyway? As soon as you joined, you started posting in the varmenti-related baccarat threads. In fact, virtually ALL of your posts are related to baccarat.
Like I said, I have been researching and trying to know more about craps and baccarat. ANd thats how I first read about WOO and then from that page I came to this forum.
I only joined the forum 2 weeks back. And I have been concentrating my system for last few months thats why I am only on Baccarat. And Varmentis thread was on top of the recent threads
Quote: novicegamblerBoth of those test are done on a computer on a random roll. I would like to know are there any challenges on Baccarat system that are Casino based, even if its extended over a week or a month. But something that is played in a real Casino and not on a Computer.
Quote: novicegamblerAnd yes its a fact I have never lost any shoe that I have played my baccarat system.
I have wrote a program to stimulate the shoe data. I had kept it running non stop and once I had it running for almost 8k shoes. I lost very few shoes in the entire run, probably around 1/100 shoes or even less in most of the runs. But even if I lost those few shoes it was a profit over the whole run.
Even when I used the WOO's data to stimulate my system I never lost a single shoe and had a profit of $50,000 over the 1000 shoes
Usually in these threads, simulations are dismissed as being irrelevant because they don't use actual cards.
But you've done simulations, and they validate your system.
So why are you insisting on a live casino challenge, which wouldn't prove anything anyway?
(If you don't follow through, maybe I'll consider discussing my own baccarat betting system which has never lost a shoe since the late Paleozoic Era. But on my planet, the system is only valid in the eighth dimension, so I'm not sure anyone here would be able to simulate it.)
Quote: novicegamblerYes.
Okay, last question:
You said you would end up playing every single hand in a shoe if you kept losing, all 82 in the example, but that never happens. I assume that means you will play every hand until you hit your win target of (at a $5 table) between $250 and $500. How many hands does that normally take?
Quote: MathExtremistOkay, last question:
You said you would end up playing every single hand in a shoe if you kept losing, all 82 in the example, but that never happens. I assume that means you will play every hand until you hit your win target of (at a $5 table) between $250 and $500. How many hands does that normally take?
Allow me to clarify his system he calls profitable. It was easy to find after he mentioned losing 1 in 100 shoes.
THE TIE BET using a modified martingale just as he listed in his TIE betting strategy in another thread.
I read his thread when he asked a question about how many shoes will happen where a TIE will not show.
this system he so calls profitable in fact is but just remember that TIE offer same odds as BINGO. Very bad bet 7% for the house. and yes you can win but you need to risk a ton of money just to make a small profit. Am I correct on this NOVICEGAMBLER from India?
I've been around the block and I know the game and the only win/loss ratio is based on the TIE at (1/100)
Tie pays 8 to 1 so a modified martingale will show per unit as 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,4 risking approx 80 units and pulling in a win profit of unit bet x8 - losing bets resulting in a profit many times over because the tie bet repeats and average 5 times per 80 hands and sometimes 2-3 in a row.
Just me two cents.
it's not positive, It's a negative betting type modded martingale.Quote: thecesspitI was just going to post I suspect its a positive progression on the Tie... keep betting till it hits, increase the bet to cover losses so far. Possibly with some sort of minor twist.
a positive is when tie comes with one unit pays 8to 1 and then pressing the bet in hopes to get another tie. this will lose 100% in the WOO simulation.
The only way it can work is martingale but if you do a full martingale, you will reach table maximum and lose. the only way it can actually become stable is to modify the martingale and spread the loses with 1 unit after each loss and gradually add more units after each loss not to exceed the 8 times win.
This makes sense and can beat the WOO simulation.
Just me two cents so Novicegambler / Verment / Gr8Player if you want to challenge me? you have to come to Caesars Windsor to do it.
More information posted here. I think these baccarat geniuses get all their info here http://baccaratsystem.org/baccarat-systems/martingale-system/
Quote: ringstarfan
I've been around the block and I know the game and the only win/loss ratio is based on the TIE at (1/100)
I thought you were not smart enough to understand that varmenti's system doesnt work
Quote: novicegamblerI thought you were not smart enough to understand that varmenti's system doesnt work
Well, ringstarfan jumped the gun on me so I might as well just ask:
What percentage of your bets are Player or Banker, and what percentage are Tie? Is it 100% Tie?
Quote: ringstarfanit's not positive, It's a negative betting type modded martingale.
a positive is when tie comes with one unit pays 8to 1 and then pressing the bet in hopes to get another tie. this will lose 100% in the WOO simulation.
The only way it can work is martingale but if you do a full martingale, you will reach table maximum and lose. the only way it can actually become stable is to modify the martingale and spread the loses with 1 unit after each loss and gradually add more units after each loss not to exceed the 8 times win.
This makes sense and can beat the WOO simulation.
Just me two cents so Novicegambler / Verment / Gr8Player if you want to challenge me? you have to come to Caesars Windsor to do it.
More information posted here. I think these baccarat geniuses get all their info here http://baccaratsystem.org/baccarat-systems/martingale-system/
I am not dumb to alkt about a Tie system in my first thread and then in second thread talk about a system which I am not ready to reveal.
Its a bet ringstarfan for your two cents to say that its not a 100% tie chasing modified martingale system
Quote: MathExtremistWell, ringstarfan jumped the gun on me so I might as well just ask:
What percentage of your bets are Player or Banker, and what percentage are Tie? Is it 100% Tie?
Banker/Player has nothing to do with it as from what i've been reading, Novicegambler does not talk about betting this way.
Tie 100% betting every hand. the math is clear thanks to your posts I figured it out that way.
Quote: MathExtremistWell, ringstarfan jumped the gun on me so I might as well just ask:
What percentage of your bets are Player or Banker, and what percentage are Tie? Is it 100% Tie?
Its not 100% ties. Its a mix, and definitely I do use the tie bet but sparingly
Quote: novicegamblerIts not 100% ties. Its a mix, and definitely I do use the tie bet but sparingly
Okay, roughly what percentage of bets do you make that are ties, and
Roughly what percentage of hands do you play overall when you hit your win targets?
Quote: novicegamblerI am not dumb to alkt about a Tie system in my first thread and then in second thread talk about a system which I am not ready to reveal.
Its a bet ringstarfan for your two cents to say that its not a 100% tie chasing modified martingale system
there is only one bet you can make at the baccarat table that losses 1/100 and that is Tie bet. you can't win doing this as I explained to the other member here. i guessed your million dollar secret and congrats to you, I believe it works without the need of luck if i'm 100% correct.
Its not the system that I said works for me and I posted in this thread for a challenge.
Yes like I said in my first thread I have always been trying to deduce different systems from my observation and conversations with others. And yes a modified Martingale system to chase Ties is also one of the system that I have been looking to work on. Like I mentioned in the first thread -
Reasons I believe it might work:
I have never seen a shoe with no ties
People in this forum have confirmed me that they have never seen a shoe with no ties
Its possible to generate profit from a shoe if we can chase down a tie
Because of the huge house edge casino wont turn on the heat
Reasons I am not concentrating to much on the system:
Not worth the risk as the profit levels are very low 6-15 units profit against a risk of losing 1000 units
I havent been able to deduce a modified martingale system to chase ties more than 40 hands, and a shoe has approx 75 hands
Quote: ringstarfanthere is only one bet you can make at the baccarat table that losses 1/100 and that is Tie bet. you can't win doing this as I explained to the other member here. i guessed your million dollar secret and congrats to you, I believe it works without the need of luck if i'm 100% correct.
Don't try me on this novice gambler, I also work a full time job making minimum wage but i'm like detective with beetoven9th as my teacher. it doesn't matter how much money you want to say you make, it's irrelevant to the answers your looking for and I provided you with the correct answers thanks to the help of other member here MathExtreme.
Whats the math behind Tie bet loses 1/100 times ??
Quote: novicegamblerWhats the math behind Tie bet loses 1/100 times ??
Don't try me on this novice gambler, I also work a full time job making minimum wage but i'm like detective with beetoven9th as my teacher. it doesn't matter how much money you want to say you make, it's irrelevant to the answers your looking for and I provided you with the correct answers thanks to the help of other member here MathExtreme. But you also want to consider in some posts that NoviceGambler had mention only betting approx 35 hands to a shoe. Even though he mentioned an answer to your question, he does not play every hand in the shoe but only up to 50% of that shoe to reach his desired income. Baccarat allows anyone to sit out from betting every hand thus Tie betting is optional and waiting for the correct moment when to bet is his way of limiting his losses and further chance of resulting in more guarantee of profits.
Clue" THE TIE LINE" allows a player to hold back his betting until the tie line appears and in many cases will repeat 99% out of every 100% of the time thus shortening the shoe to about 35% betting per table. This technique has been done over 40 years ago to this day.
Quote: MathExtremistOkay, roughly what percentage of bets do you make that are ties, and
Roughly what percentage of hands do you play overall when you hit your win targets?
Okays let me just give the information that I am fine with sharing. Hope that answers all your question.
If the table minimum is $5
If I played every hand in the shoe and lost all I would lose around $900
I am looking for a target of atleast $250
I usually play around 40 - 60 hands to achieve my target
My bet is spread across all three bets - banker, player and tie
Usage: Max % - Player, Least % - Tie
I have a modified system to work with the Chineese Baccarat as well where my minium bet is $1 otherwise my minimum bet is $5
Quote: ringstarfanBaccarat allows anyone to sit out from betting every hand thus Tie betting is optional and waiting for the correct moment when to bet is his way of limiting his losses and further chance of resulting in more guarantee of profits.
Clue" THE TIE LINE" allows a player to hold back his betting until the tie line appears and in many cases will repeat 99% out of every 100% of the time thus shortening the shoe to about 35% betting per table. This technique has been done over 40 years ago to this day.
I will consider myself stupid if I believed on anything called tie line. I don't belive in following the myth of tie line. If tie line existed then the casino wouldnt give you pen and paper to note down the pattern and the casino wouldnt have a display board showing the same
Quote: Beethoven9thThis defense sounds familiar.
I noticed that as well.
LOLQuote: rob45The force is strong. I sense my Master is near.
*headshake*Quote: novicegamblerWHat defence are we talking about ?
Quote: novicegamblerOkays let me just give the information that I am fine with sharing. Hope that answers all your question.
If the table minimum is $5
If I played every hand in the shoe and lost all I would lose around $900
I am looking for a target of atleast $250
I usually play around 40 - 60 hands to achieve my target
My bet is spread across all three bets - banker, player and tie
Usage: Max % - Player, Least % - Tie
I have a modified system to work with the Chineese Baccarat as well where my minium bet is $1 otherwise my minimum bet is $5
That's good enough to reach a conclusion. In conjunction with the other details you've provided:
Your average per-hand bet for a shoe is just about $11: $900/82. Because you increase as you lose, your average per-hand bet when you have winning sessions is less than $11.
But you believe you will never lose; rather, you believe that you will always win at least $250 in no more than 60 hands, for an average profit of no less than $4.16 per hand. If you were to win $500 in 40 hands, that would be an average profit of $12.50/hand.
Therefore, you essentially believe that on average, when you put $11 on the table, you will get between $15.16 and $23.50 in return. That translates into a theoretical player advantage of between 37% and 113%.
In order for you to have a 37% player advantage on banker or player, you would need to be able to guess correctly 40% more often than typical. It's not even mathematically possible for you to have a 113% advantage on player or banker because they only pay even money or slightly less. Even if you always won, you wouldn't win 113% of what you wagered.
In order to yield a 37% player edge on the tie bet, you'd need to predict ties with 60% more accuracy than normal, and to get to 113% edge, you'd need to be a whopping 150% more accurate than normal. In other words, while the normal baccarat player wins a tie bet roughly 9.5% of the time, you'd need to win your tie bets over 23.5% of the time to yield a 113% edge on the bet.
Therefore, you are either one of the world's luckiest guessers, or you are engaged in some combination of misremembering or misrepresenting your results.
Quote: MathExtremistThat's good enough to reach a conclusion. In conjunction with the other details you've provided:
Your average per-hand bet for a shoe is just about $11: $900/82. Because you increase as you lose, your average per-hand bet when you have winning sessions is less than $11.
But you believe you will never lose; rather, you believe that you will always win at least $250 in no more than 60 hands, for an average profit of no less than $4.16 per hand. If you were to win $500 in 40 hands, that would be an average profit of $12.50/hand.
Therefore, you essentially believe that on average, when you put $11 on the table, you will get between $15.16 and $23.50 in return. That translates into a theoretical player advantage of between 37% and 113%.
In order for you to have a 37% player advantage on banker or player, you would need to be able to guess correctly 40% more often than typical. It's not even mathematically possible for you to have a 113% advantage on player or banker because they only pay even money or slightly less. Even if you always won, you wouldn't win 113% of what you wagered.
In order to yield a 37% player edge on the tie bet, you'd need to predict ties with 60% more accuracy than normal, and to get to 113% edge, you'd need to be a whopping 150% more accurate than normal. In other words, while the normal baccarat player wins a tie bet roughly 9.5% of the time, you'd need to win your tie bets over 23.5% of the time to yield a 113% edge on the bet.
Therefore, you are either one of the world's luckiest guessers, or you are engaged in some combination of misremembering or misrepresenting your results.
Impossible.
Just me two cents.
WAIT! WAIT, WAIT! {Light Bulb} I just figured out the math behind varmants betting partners and why he thinks it works.
If you bet one side only in baccarat would compare to 50% Win/Loss
Now take one side (50% win/loss) + (25% Loss on the Opposite bet) = (100% coverage - 25% guarantee win) thus resulting in lower monies lost during runs after 2.
if you were to bet one side only, you win or you lose 50/50 and long run will lose due to the house edge.
betting both sides guarantees the player (25% win all the time) and (75% win 50% of the time) thus resulting in a win/win or win/lose half.
Well, I'm off to work, break is over.
Some people have real jobs here.
कैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है?Quote: novicegamblerOkays let me just give the information that I am fine with sharing. Hope that answers all your question.
Quote: Beethoven9thकैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है?
My friend is fine. कैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है Beethoven9th?
Quote: ringstarfanकैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है?My friend is fine. कैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है Beethoven9th?Quote: Beethoven9thकैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है?Quote: novicegamblerOkays let me just give the information that I am fine with sharing. Hope that answers all your question.
Interesting. Looks like ringstarfan just responded to a question that was directed at novicegambler..........AND he understands Hindi. (I guess they're both Indian?)
This kinda reminds me of the time gr8varmenti responded to a question that was aimed at gr8player.
Quote: Beethoven9thInteresting. Looks like ringstarfan just responded to a question that was directed at novicegambler.
This kinda reminds me of the time gr8varmenti responded to a question that was aimed at gr8player.
your question was directed to me and not NoviceGambler. Your Hindu language does not include such name of direction other directly under my reply. therefore your question lies beneath my control to respond. Got it?
Do not ever compare me to those worthy of GR8'ness. I am humbled to be in the presence of such a three of discovering geniuses. I feel like the "Cat" in this story lying in a bed of monopoly money covered in maple syrup.
I must return to my humble job now earning rations to pay my ever building piles of bills.
Quote: Beethoven9thकैसे अपने दोस्त कर रहा है?
wow :)
Main badhiya hoon. Aap kaise ho ??
Quote: Beethoven9thInteresting. Looks like ringstarfan just responded to a question that was directed at novicegambler..........AND he understands Hindi. (I guess they're both Indian?)
This kinda reminds me of the time gr8varmenti responded to a question that was aimed at gr8player.
ringstarfan - Are you from India ?
Quote: ringstarfanyour question was directed to me and not NoviceGambler. Your Hindu language does not include such name of direction other directly under my reply. therefore your question lies beneath my control to respond. Got it?
Um...I don't think so. At the time you responded, novicegambler's direct quote was in my post.
God I hope you dispute this. (The mods can easily see my initial message right after I clicked 'Post' the first time.....lol)
EDIT: And now novicegambler just "happens" to come back. *headshake* lol...
Quote: novicegamblerQuote: Beethoven9thInteresting. Looks like ringstarfan just responded to a question that was directed at novicegambler..........AND he understands Hindi. (I guess they're both Indian?)
This kinda reminds me of the time gr8varmenti responded to a question that was aimed at gr8player.
ringstarfan - Are you from India ?
No sir. I use Google Translate. I am originally from Shenzhen China, Guangdong province, just north of Hong Kong. I work in the Cannon building in Shenzhen and then Canton Fair in Guangzhou October 20th. I work Import / Export Commodities to Canada and Based out of Toronto, (Spadina Ave.) I work for a living at small wages. I am full time in Canada. I don't gamble fulltime but when I do, I play Mini-Bac at medium stakes. I look for an edge but never find anything.
By the way, not that this in any way changes the fact that he cannot beat baccarat, but he did mention to me that in addition to betting the three bets (b, p, tie) that he sometimes bets on a side bet which I forgot the name of exactly but involves the dealer winning with exactly 7.
Quote: ringstarfanNo sir. I use Google Translate. I am originally from Shenzhen China, Guangdong province, just north of Hong Kong. I work in the Cannon building in Shenzhen and then Canton Fair in Guangzhou October 20th. I work Import / Export Commodities to Canada and Based out of Toronto, (Spadina Ave.) I work for a living at small wages. I am full time in Canada.
Even better. BTW, you still didn't tell us why you responded to a question for novicegambler.
Quote: SOOPOOHi team! I recently spoke with novicegambler, and am hoping to make it up to Fallsview early this week, if my work schedule permits. He sounded quite sincere, and quite reasonable in his 'wants' to show me his system. He seems most afraid that a casino will ban him for his continued success. He told me he takes a card with him that he actively refers to, and receives no 'heat' because of it. I told him quite the opposite, that they will send a limo for him if he is going to use his card at the $100 minimum tables. At the $5 table he would be invisible, with a card or without! So I will try and make a time to meet, and if he is there, and I get to see what he does, great! If he doesn't show up, then I'll just go about my business losing , I mean gambling, at Pai Gow Tiles. I really never need an excuse to go to a non smoking casino.....
By the way, not that this in any way changes the fact that he cannot beat baccarat, but he did mention to me that in addition to betting the three bets (b, p, tie) that he sometimes bets on a side bet which I forgot the name of exactly but involves the dealer winning with exactly 7.
There is no such a bet dealer winning with exactly 7 in any casino other than in USA thus results not in a win but a push.
Awesome! It should be an "interesting" trip. lolQuote: SOOPOOHi team! I recently spoke with novicegambler, and am hoping to make it up to Fallsview early this week, if my work schedule permits.
Sounds like the Dragon side bet, which wins when the Banker wins the hand with a 3-card total of 7.Quote: SOOPOO...he did mention to me that in addition to betting the three bets (b, p, tie) that he sometimes bets on a side bet which I forgot the name of exactly but involves the dealer winning with exactly 7.
Quote: Beethoven9thUm...I don't think so. At the time you responded, novicegambler's direct quote was in my post.
God I hope you dispute this. (The mods can easily see my initial message right after I clicked 'Post' the first time.....lol)
EDIT: And now novicegambler just "happens" to come back. *headshake* lol...
OMG.. I was always at the forum replying to everyone since morning
Quote: Beethoven9thEven better. You still didn't tell us why you responded to a question for novicegambler.
there is no quote meant for Novicegamble, you asked me that question and i responded. if it was in fact directed for novice, then scratch my response.
Are you with some kind of Symphony?
Quote: ringstarfanThere is no such a bet dealer winning with exactly 7 in any casino other than in USA thus results not in a win but a push.
How do you know so much about American casino rules if you can't travel here?
Quote: ringstarfanthere is no quote meant for Novicegamble, you asked me that question and i responded. if it was in fact directed for novice, then scratch my response.
Are you with some kind of Symphony?
Look at my post, Einstein. My message is directly under novicegambler's quote, and a mod can confirm this if you really want to press this issue.
