Beats zumma and 72 hours at the craps table with flat bets for what that is worth

I played this way for a long time and made modest profits and nice comps

We all know that at the end of the day one must deal with the house edge, we can't get rid of the house edge but we can use variance or Standard Deviation

IMO craps is a game of chops and Bac tends to be a game of streaks due to the draw rules.

What I did was let single chops make me a unit and all runs of 3 and more will cost me 2 units this breaks down to

50% of the time I make a unit
25% of the time I have L W so I break even
25% of the time I have L L

this looks like no edge gained. Now if you think about the lower the probability that something occurs the more it takes wild swings. For example the field So over a large sample and the key being large at some point

A my 50% win rate will be at 52% or so and I can end with a win
B my 25% LL will be at less than 25% thus out of balance and my 50% rate will be enough for me to exit with a profit.

Look at things another way I want you to go to the table and make me 40 units only using flat bets but use a 4 units stop loss I bet it will take you more than 10 tries to reah +40. So it is hard for it to swing and take 40 units from me without it ever being 4 in the other direction when I only Lose 25% of the time

Here is the zumma chart (note it does not match the book sample but should make it clear on what I am trying to do)

zumma DP chart (so all bets would be on pass as not to worry about the 12)

1=1350 2=643 3=323 4=165 5=69 6=29 7=19 8=12 9= 5 10+=5

1350 times we make a single unit

643 times we have a L W (P D D P) so we break even

627 times we have 2 units lost ( runs 3 + all added together)

627 times 2 for the 2 units lost each comes to 1,254 units lost in zumma vs 1350 won so we end +96 not bad for an all pass line flat bets bets

I apply this to both lines but The DP in this example to rule out the 12 on the come out roll. If it is all just smoke just look at how many units in comps I would get for 300+ hours of play so this is low risk. (Bac forum posted estimated about 100 units in comps)

So it comes down to can something that only happens 25% of the time start out above that rate and for the life of the sample stay above the 25% mark. At some point it will move under the make for the sample that is just how numbers work. the problems is will it be within an hour or 12 hours but it always happens. all I really need is it to stay at the 25% rate and my single chops be north of 50% for a short time and let me exit.

Here are the test results from a fixed sample AKA zumma that someone ran for me

Zumma Craps

applying this concept to both the pass and Don't pass lines

It makes 45 units on the pass side and 18 units on the don't pass side. Total 63 units. The profit after 500 decisions is 37 and decreases to 7 units after 2000 decisions. The profit after 7000 decisions is 82 and decreases to 19 units after 9000 decisions, a decrease of 63 units in 1000 decisions.

(1) 500 37 (2) 1000 47 (3) 2000 7 (4) 3000 26 (5) 4000 18

(6) 5000 18 (7) 6000 59 (8) 7000 82 (9) 9000 19 (10) 10000 26

(11) End 63

This is very volatile for the Zumma decisions.

I have found a new way to use variance that has less neg swings and meets my needs from a risk reward stand point. I get two free rooms a week and 280 dollars in cash for walking through the door and (not posted here) that helps off set the HE but try this and you will see you can drive this in the ground but when the deviation happens in your favor you need to walk away. play this with 200 units and see how many tests you must run on wincraps or anything else you would like before you can bust this with a small win target. After all deviation is standard. Lets say the next sample you end up neg 30 or even 60 units you still would have comps for over 600 hours of play to show for your time

you can win at craps but is it worth the time is a another question any winning system is going to be a grind and flat bets are always better than progressions so if this is a a sinking ship be glad you are going down at 1.4% and at the right casino you get that back in comps

Interesting Post. Is Craps your game of choice?

Yes Craps is the best game because there is no pressure to bet every outcome like Blackjack tables have and you can find a 3 or 5 dollar craps table good luck finding that with Bac. With a HE of 1.4% and out of that you get comps this is not a bad game to attack.

I do not play this way anymore because I found a better way IMO to apply the same logic. The New system I play does finish +96 units for zumma with flat bets so you can see how that is an improvement over what I have posted

Quote: Tide

I have found a new way to use variance that has less neg swings and meets my needs from a risk reward stand point.

sounds too difficult. the variance part.
This whole post sounds a lot like stuff from Evo over at Bac Forumn.

His Enron accounting methods were shown to be filled with errors.
meaning, he said he had +units
but in reality
had
only
-units won

Quote: Tide

I get two free rooms a week and 280 dollars in cash
for walking through the door and (not posted here) that helps off set the HE

Nice!
Is it fun?
If making money gambling is not fun, like working a job,
I would rather stay retired. right?
it is really all about having fun

Quote: Tide

play this with 200 units and see how many tests you must run on wincraps or
anything else you would like before you can bust this with a small win target.

Play what?
How about an example of your flat betting.

when you flat bet $5 and
LWLWL are your results from your 5 pass line bets,
you actually make a 1 unit profit from the streaks of 1 each time.
great!

thanks for sharing

I contacted Evo a long time ago and I can shed more light on his testing. I liked the Idea and a built on what he had done

1 He used a different pattern as his nemesis.
2 He tested the idea on each line independently applying it to the passline only and then the DP only. (made money)
3 Where he ran in to trouble was when he tried to change what he was doing to chance units not won due to the none paying 12 that he got into trouble

Lets say you had P D P D P D that is WWWWW

Now for tracking and bet placement the 12 is viewed as a D

so P 12 was a push and out next bet should be placed on P Well in an attempt to drive up profits Evo said no unit was lost so we can just ignore that roll and leave the money on the DP for one more turn. Now follow this applying his system to only one of the line bets beats zumma accepting the 12 as a tie in this example you are able to beat zumma but leaving it on the line for after the 12 would make you have money on both lines for the next bet and that was the only time this made neg units

Player A P 12 now bet P
Player B P 12 no unit lost leave money on D see you end up with bets on both lines that is what pushed him Neg So accept the tie and move on and do not leave it on the DP for the 2nd bet

So using his system does work but mine is better you might consider it 2.0 but then I have done even more testing and was able to cut down the number of bets so what I do now could be called 3.0. I wanted to post all of this on an active board that is why I joined here but I can see this place is as dead as other sites


I have been playing 3.0 since march and made over 3K with flat bets so evo was on the right path should have never chased the losses or (non paying 12 out comes) but with this low rate of posting I guess I was wrong for posting here. Thank you to the two people brave enough to post.

I wish more people would have posted but that is ok I can still post and keep track of my winnings here. For some reason I a d more faithful about updating online than when I try to just write it down
Just to be clear what I have posted in the first post is a simple way that lets you bet 50% of the time so lots of action and yet beat both craps tester books for what that is worth

After play this way for a long time I noticed a way to improve on what I do and so my live play is only slightly modified from what I posted here my intentions were to have people sim/test and show this does win but is too slow to be worth the time and then I was going fully show my play but I guess the only good ideas people find is ones that they come up with on ther on thus the low interest in this thread. Just for the record the testing I posted was done by John not myself Evo if you are out there thank you 4 the system

+61 units and 95.75,100,9