Baccarat Partner Betting
Quote: 7crapsHere are the results for the first 30 hands of Shoe #1 of the Wizard's 8 deck shoes
please, play this partial shoe out and teach your methodHand Result
1 B
2 B
3 B
4 P
5 B
6 P
7 T
8 B
9 P
10 P
11 T
12 B
13 B
14 T
15 B
16 B
17 P
18 B
19 B
20 B
21 B
22 B
23 P
24 P
25 B
26 P
27 B
28 B
29 T
30 B
Thanks for sharing
I reckon that shoe makes Varmenti 0.75 units or $18.75 at $25 unit bets. Based on an up two, down one progression, bet both sides, follow the streak, reset after tie. Unless I misunderstood the system.
Note that just following the streak give better results than betting both sides.
Not tracking the 5% vig on a banker win seems... careless.
Quote: thecesspitQuote: 7crapsHere are the results for the first 30 hands of Shoe #1 of the Wizard's 8 deck shoes
please, play this partial shoe out and teach your methodHand Result
1 B
2 B
3 B
4 P
5 B
6 P
7 T
8 B
9 P
10 P
11 T
12 B
13 B
14 T
15 B
16 B
17 P
18 B
19 B
20 B
21 B
22 B
23 P
24 P
25 B
26 P
27 B
28 B
29 T
30 B
Thanks for sharing
I reckon that shoe makes Varmenti 0.75 units or $18.75 at $25 unit bets. Based on an up two, down one progression, bet both sides, follow the streak, reset after tie. Unless I misunderstood the system.
Note that just following the streak give better results than betting both sides.
Not tracking the 5% vig on a banker win seems... careless.
if banker wins on a first bet of 25.00 + 1.25 Commission, they take $1.25 commission. your second bet is still 50.00 with 2.50 commission and not 48.50 or 47.50 and so on and so on. Commissions are placed in advance and not taken from winnings.
I did at the beginning of trial and error with many styles of betting progressions, but found it to only get in the way. the 5% is peanuts and not to worry about in this method.
Simply count your extra Hundred Dollar Bills after each day and if you like just carry an extra 20-30.00 with your bankroll to cover your banker commissions. Other than that, don't worry about the 5%.
Quote: varmenti
if banker wins on a first bet of 25.00 + 1.25 Commission, they take $1.25 commission. your second bet is still 50.00 with 2.50 commission and not 48.50 or 47.50 and so on and so on. Commissions are placed in advance and not taken from winnings.
So you are placing the commision in front, not losing it behind? Not that it makes too much difference.
Quote:I did at the beginning of trial and error with many styles of betting progressions, but found it to only get in the way. the 5% is peanuts and not to worry about in this method.
Simply count your extra Hundred Dollar Bills after each day and if you like just carry an extra 20-30.00 with your bankroll to cover your banker commissions. Other than that, don't worry about the 5%.
Let me know if my assessment of the shoe above matches what would happen if you had bet it.
Quote: thecesspitSo you are placing the commision in front, not losing it behind? Not that it makes too much difference.
Let me know if my assessment of the shoe above matches what would happen if you had bet it.
I played the shoe listed and made +25.00 profit at 20 hands. Minus the commissions i had paid out for banker come outs. (approx 12 x $1.25) Don't really worry about this small stuff.
There are many shoe's you will play that will make $200.00 to $500 easy.
Quote: varmentiI played the shoe listed and made +25.00 profit at 20 hands. Minus the commissions i had paid out for banker come outs. (approx 12 x $1.25) Don't really worry about this small stuff.
Well, you would finish the streak, though, surely?
I get the same after 20 shoes, paying commission out of the win.
Quote:There are many shoe's you will play that will make $200.00 to $500 easy.
No doubt. And vice versa.
Now I know it matches, I might run off 10,000 shoes later on this week via simulation.
I never did really look closely at the posted system in the OP beforeQuote: thecesspitI reckon that shoe makes Varmenti 0.75 units or $18.75 at $25 unit bets.
Based on an up two, down one progression, bet both sides, follow the streak, reset after tie.
Unless I misunderstood the system.
Note that just following the streak give better results than betting both sides.
Not tracking the 5% vig on a banker win seems... careless.
it was removed.
So your method of play is
on the winning side: 25 to 50 to 100 and up 50 each win after (or is it 25/50/75/125/175 etc)
losing bet stays at 25
"reset after tie" means to start back at 25/25
or
the same bet say 50/25 (P/B) as was before Tie
really want to see the OP's method of play
what is the fear?
thanks for sharing
Quote: Beethoven9thIt's amazing how a person can take a simple system that sucks and turn it into a complicated system that sucks.
Still the best post in this whole thread, hands down.
+10
Quote: 7crapsI never did really look closely at the posted system in the OP before
it was removed.
So your method of play is
on the winning side: 25 to 50 to 100 and up 50 each win after (or is it 25/50/75/125/175 etc)
losing bet stays at 25
It appears to be : 25/50/75/50/75/100 (up twice, then retreat once).
Quote:
"reset after tie" means to start back at 25/25
or
the same bet say 50/25 (P/B) as was before Tie
I modelled it as the former.
Quote:
really want to see the OP's method of play
what is the fear?
thanks for sharing
The fear is the FEAR from "fear and loathing in Las Vegas" ;)
More seriously, the other two caveats are : stop the current streak when you hit $200 profit or after 20 hands. Or after losing $200. I think $200 is the loss limit.
It's pretty simple.
Quote: thecesspitIt appears to be : 25/50/75/50/75/100 (up twice, then retreat once).
I modelled it as the former.
The fear is the FEAR from "fear and loathing in Las Vegas" ;)
Removed!!"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it" <br> "Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. " <br> "Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!" <br> "There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
Quote: varmentithecesspit, and 7craps these are both wrong and if you do it that way you will lose your shirt.
If you're starting to get the picture then the Betting Progression looks like this:
0=25/25
1=50/25
2=75/25
3=50/25 (at this point you are betting strictly Casino Profits)
4=75/25
5=100/25
6=125/25
7=150/25
8=200/25 (At this point you should have colored up to get a 500 Chip)
9=100/25
10=150/25
11=200/25 (At this point you should color up another 500 Chip)
Var- First off, I am going to give some constructive criticism. I appreciate that you are trying to get on the positive side of variance which it looks like you are currently doing. However, I think you are completely underestimating how much you are losing in commissions. There is no reason at all to bet on both sides. If you would just simply reduce each bet by $25 it would put you in the same place at the end except you would have more profit because of the commissions paid.
Also, why are you sitting at a table with $1000 when you have a $200 stop loss?
Quote:3) Session Limiting (20 hands per table) or 200.00 reached or Streak ended.
This I am unclear on. $200 after a streak ends? 20 hands even if in a streak? Obviously if I up over $200 I keep going on the streak (or the progression makes no sense) or do you mean a $200 loss limit.
I assumed the Tie was a reset from previous posts. Was unsure though
Betting progression is more aggressive than I had, will model it.
Quote: GWAEVar- First off, I am going to give some constructive criticism. I appreciate that you are trying to get on the positive side of variance which it looks like you are currently doing. However, I think you are completely underestimating how much you are losing in commissions. There is no reason at all to bet on both sides. If you would just simply reduce each bet by $25 it would put you in the same place at the end except you would have more profit because of the commissions paid.
Also, why are you sitting at a table with $1000 when you have a $200 stop loss?
GWAE, It's not the same because you will be losing out on the Backbone bet. You will lose your money.
I may set the stop loss at 200, but having a 1000.00 Bankroll Gives me the Motivation to make those $100, $125, $150 & $200 bets in total confidence. It's more of a Psychological thing.
Quote: varmenti2) Short Term Goal ($200.00 Per Table) if you reach this goal, Leave the Table and don't look back.
What do you do if you're up $200, but you're in the middle of a "streak"? Do you end the session, or do you continue to follow the progression, upon which a resulting loss could then put you back under the $200 win goal?
3) Session Limiting (20 hands per table) or 200.00 reached or Streak ended.
Same concern as above. How many consecutive winning hands are in a "streak"? If you are having a losing session, but the last two hands of that session are the same (e.g., both the nineteenth and twentieth hands resulted in the same spot winning), then do you continue the session beyond twenty hands because a streak may be developing?
Very important to clarify these points if any credibility is to exist.
Quote: varmentiGWAE, It's not the same because you will be losing out on the Backbone bet.
What's a "backbone bet"?
Quote: thecesspitThis I am unclear on. $200 after a streak ends? 20 hands even if in a streak? Obviously if I up over $200 I keep going on the streak (or the progression makes no sense) or do you mean a $200 loss limit.
I assumed the Tie was a reset from previous posts. Was unsure though
Betting progression is more aggressive than I had, will model it.
My goal is set to make $200 per table and do that 5 times per day.
However, I may already have my 200.00 after only 7 hands, even though I am supposed to walk, If I am in the middle of a Player / Banker run, Yeah for sure, Stay and keep playing the streak until it ends, then walk with even more profit.
Just last month there was a Table that had a run of 23 Bankers. and using my method would have made me more than 6000.00 in profit. but as soon as Player shows, Session done.
So end each session with whatever comes first the 200 goal or 20 hands, but if in a streak, Let it ride till the streak ends and Make $$$$$.
Quote: Beethoven9thWhat's a "backbone bet"?
It's the Top Line.
Quote: TankoAll that hedging and progression for a paltry net profit of $10 on a very good shoe. If you took the Wizard's advice and simply flat-bet Banker, you would win 18 Banker bets and lose 8 to Player for a $227.50 profit after commissions.
That brings it down to Preference of how Baccarat Players like to bet Tanko,.
Myself, I like to bet the way I explain my method of Partner Betting. I can Bet other ways to make more profits, but I prefer My method because it works for me.
Like I said a few times, there are other elements needed to include in order to complete to fully take advantage of my method of Play.
I don't want to share at this time but I will include at a later date.
So you can make more money, but you just don't want to, right?Quote: gr8varmentiI can Bet other ways to make more profits, but I prefer My method because it works for me.
All this talk, yet you now say that you don't want to share. LOL!!Quote: gr8varmentiI don't want to share at this time but I will include at a later date.
Quote: Beethoven9thSo you can make more money, but you just don't want to, right?
All this talk, yet you now say that you don't want to share. LOL!!
Beethoven9th, Please, you need to take a break from the forum every now and then and maybe go watch a movie or something, You've been on here since early morning.
I don't blame you. I'd avoid the question too. ;)
Quote: varmentiThat brings it down to Preference of how Baccarat Players like to bet Tanko,.
Myself, I like to bet the way I explain my method of Partner Betting. I can Bet other ways to make more profits, but I prefer My method because it works for me.
Like I said a few times, there are other elements needed to include in order to complete to fully take advantage of my method of Play.
I don't want to share at this time but I will include at a later date.
LOL then GTFO
You proclaim you have a system and now you are saying there is more to it but you don't want to share. I was half on your side until you fed us all this line of bull.
Quote: GWAELOL then GTFO
You proclaim you have a system and now you are saying there is more to it but you don't want to share.
No, he can't share it is what he means. It involves
special chants and incantations in his car before
he enters the casino. Hush hush stuff..
Quote: GWAELOL then GTFO
You proclaim you have a system and now you are saying there is more to it but you don't want to share. I was half on your side until you fed us all this line of bull.
Man this is all you need for now, enjoy. It's 11pm EST time here and I'm off to play some night sessions at Fallsview Casino, if anyone wants to join me, I'll be there till probably 2am EST.
Bye for now !!!
My Master is obviously feeling the pressure now, as more people are speaking up and asking the hard questions.
Of extreme frustration is the extreme ambiguity prevalent throughout this thread.
Somebody is upset because I have played 20 sessions using the system and the results are showing a negative balance (-$875). Quite naturally, when things don't go as planned, the water starts to become murky. Methods are adjusted to suit the desired outcome.
thecesspit has mentioned running a simulation, but he needs to have the specifics of the touted system verified. I don't blame him, but good luck avoiding the ping-pong ball.
The problem is that when (OOPS! I meant to say "if") the simulations prove the system ineffective, my Master will retort by stating that simulations are not real-life play, there must be a mistake in the method of play, etc.
If it will make my Master feel any better, I'll start my sessions with a clean slate in order to "give him a chance", as I simply do not care if his system wins or loses.
What irritates me is the pomposity presented by my Master.
The details of the first session are presented below. This is an actual session that I played shortly before this post, and I played it exactly as my Master has specified.
Upon completion of successive sessions, I will post results of those, too.
I will continue to post session results until either I finish the 500 sessions or the moderators ask me to stop.
Session 1
OXOXOXOXOOXXXOOXOOXXXO
Session result -$217.50
Balance -$217.50
Session 1 notes:
1. Why did I lose $217.50, when a stop-loss of $200 has been suggested? Because in a previous post , I was advised to have a buy-in of $200-300, and the buy-in is to be the maximum amount lost per session, so I'm using $300 as the stop-loss.
2. Twenty-two (22) decisions were made in this session. Why didn't I stop after twenty (20) decisions? On the twentieth hand, I had two (2) consecutive wins on the Player, and we have been instructed to keep going until it ends.
OXOOXXOOXOXOOOOXOOOX
Session result -$152.50
Balance -$370.00
Quote: rob45
I will continue to post session results until either I finish the 500 sessions or the moderators ask me to stop.
Session 1
OXOXOXOXOOXXXOOXOOXXXO
Session result -$217.50
Balance -$217.50
I have it that you should quit after hand 9, as your 8.25 units in the hole (the 8 straight chops means every bet is a loss of around 1 unit).
I also got it as -$317.50 if you go through to the streak finishing after hand 20.
Also, no tie in 22?
Quote: rob45Session 2
OXOOXXOOXOXOOOOXOOOX
Session result -$152.50
Balance -$370.00
Bet 12 should have ended this run, but I agree with your final total.
Quote: varmenti
if banker wins on a first bet of 25.00 + 1.25 Commission, they take $1.25 commission. your second bet is still 50.00 with 2.50 commission and not 48.50 or 47.50 and so on and so on. Commissions are placed in advance and not taken from winnings.
I did at the beginning of trial and error with many styles of betting progressions, but found it to only get in the way. the 5% is peanuts and not to worry about in this method.
Simply count your extra Hundred Dollar Bills after each day and if you like just carry an extra 20-30.00 with your bankroll to cover your banker commissions. Other than that, don't worry about the 5%.
I know you are saying the 5% commissions (that you are just giving away to the casino by betting both sides) are peanuts, but those peanuts add up.
I'm not sure what would be an accurate average amount of times where you are betting on a Player streak during a shoe + the very first hand of the shoe where you bet B & P and B wins, but if this average is 6 times per shoe, then it would be $7.50 in commissions per shoe. Times that by 10 shoes per day is $75. $75 is not a small amount when considering it is 37.5% of your win goal of $200.
Quote: EdgeLookerI know you are saying the 5% commissions (that you are just giving away to the casino by betting both sides) are peanuts, but those peanuts add up.
I'm not sure what would be an accurate average amount of times where you are betting on a Player streak during a shoe + the very first hand of the shoe where you bet B & P and B wins, but if this average is 6 times per shoe, then it would be $7.50 in commissions per shoe. Times that by 10 shoes per day is $75. $75 is not a small amount when considering it is 37.5% of your win goal of $200.
Too much theory and no play = No good
Play more and think less = $$$
Play Play Play and make money, don't worry about the commission man.
Is there any Baccarat Players here that actually play the game with real Cards and real money?
Quote: varmentiToo much theory and no play = No good
Play more and think less = $$$
gr8varmenti's advice + play, play, play = empty wallet
I swear some casino owners just got all wet after reading that comment.Quote: varmenti
Play more and think less = $$$
Quote: thecesspitQuote: rob45Session 2
OXOOXXOOXOXOOOOXOOOX
Session result -$152.50
Balance -$370.00
Bet 12 should have ended this run, but I agree with your final total.
Try some real Baccarat Shoes like:
Shoe 1 = PBPBBBB-BBBPPPPB-PBB-P (This was a fast Cash table)
Shoe 2 = -BBPBPPPB-BBB-PBPBPPPPB (This was a very good playing table)
Shoe 3 = PPPPPPPPP-PPB (This shoe I missed out on the first 3 Players because I sat at the table late) I still achieved my goal early at this table)
Shoe 4 = PPBPPBBPPBBBP-PBBBPPB (This table sucked big time)
Shoe 5 = BPPBBBBBPBBPPBPPPPPPPB (This was a very good playing table)
Shoe 6 = P-PPBPPBPBPPBBBPBPPBP (This table sucked big time)
(These shoes happened tonight at the Casino)
I also played a couple more losing tables that I didn't keep score.
I left Casino at ahead +$285.00 for the evening after wife's slot machine loss of 100.00, my slot machine loss of 60.00 and cost of drinks 45.00.
The hallucinogens MUST be freeQuote: varmentiand cost of drinks 45.00.
Quote: AxelWolfThe hallucinogens MUST be free
actually each glass is $7.75 x 3 for each of us plus tip. 50.00
I guess that went over your head.Quote: varmentiactually each glass is $7.75 x 3 for each of us plus tip. 50.00
Quote: AxelWolfI guess that went over your head.
Sorry its 3am here and I'm just winding down.
My Impression of "The Million Dollar Suitcase Guy" Howie Mandel
My Kids
My Casino Bankroll Wallet
My Cat "Oreo" Loves the Maple smell of the new Hundreds
This is the Brand New 2013 Honda Civic I bought my wife with last months Casino Winnings,
This is my "Bling Bling" I know I don't need em, but who cares, The Casino paid for them last week.
Quote: rob45OK, enough of this nonsense.
My Master is obviously feeling the pressure now, as more people are speaking up and asking the hard questions.
Did you read the warning label on the subforum? "All betting systems are worthless."
The details don't matter.
However the premise of this discussion area is that math is worthless in a casino. But without scientific methods as a guide, the discussions typically don't progress toward any sort of a conclusion.
Quote: gpac1377Did you read the warning label on the subforum? "All betting systems are worthless."
Yes, I have read it, and I am in agreement with it 100%.
The details don't matter.
Yes, they do matter. The details prove whether the system works or not.
However the premise of this discussion area is that math is worthless in a casino. But without scientific methods as a guide, the discussions typically don't progress toward any sort of a conclusion.
Exactly. The proponents of any system must be able to provide a concrete method of play.
Quote: rob45Quote: gpac1377The details don't matter.
Yes, they do matter. The details prove whether the system works or not.
We may be arguing semantics. A BETTING system cannot "work."
A non-betting system can work, but it would need to employ techniques beyond the parameters of this subforum.
The OP has hinted at additional, undisclosed details, but he hasn't revealed anything mathematically plausible.
Quote: gpac1377"All betting systems are worthless."
The details don't matter.
This is 100% not true. It depends what your goals are. Betting systems may help you acheive a defined goal. As an example, if your goal is to triple your bankroll, certain systems may acheive success 30% of the time, while a different system will succeed 20% of the time. If your goal is just to increase your bankroll by 10%, certain systems may work 85% of the time, while others only 80%.
The phrase 'betting systems are worthless' would only be factual if it is followed by the phrase "in changing a negative EV game into a positive EV game" or something like that.
Quote: SOOPOOThis is 100% not true.
Absolutely correct. It's an oversimplification.
Quote: SOOPOOThis is 100% not true. It depends what your goals are. Betting systems may help you acheive a defined goal. As an example, if your goal is to triple your bankroll, certain systems may acheive success 30% of the time, while a different system will succeed 20% of the time. If your goal is just to increase your bankroll by 10%, certain systems may work 85% of the time, while others only 80%.
The phrase 'betting systems are worthless' would only be factual if it is followed by the phrase "in changing a negative EV game into a positive EV game" or something like that.
I happen to agree with your points, and would also add that systems have a subjective, "Entertainment," value for some people such that using a system is the only way an individual might wish to play the game. If you have a game that, by its very nature, is a negative expectation game, then the overall subjective value of even playing that game should come as a result of the enjoyment experienced by the player playing the game in the first place.
However, from a standpoint of monetary EV in a game, there are also situations in which a system can be worse than worthless. The thing about worthlessness is that the term is used to denote something of no value, neither positive nor negative. A system would be considered worse than worthless (from a monetary standpoint) when it invokes the making of bets in which the House Edge is greater than the lowest possible House Edge to be had on that particular game.
That having been said, Banker is the best bet on the table from a standpoint of EV, it seems that this system calls for occasionally making the Player bet which has a worse EV and higher HE than the Banker bet, thus this system is worse than worthless. A worthless system would involve some sort of progression or trending involving only the Banker bet.
So, pursuant to your points above, systems may have either positive or negative value for the player...but only have an effect on the House Edge in a negative way for the player when they call for making other than the best bet on the table.
So what I am seeing is betting progression AND hedging taking place. For me, what is the difference betting $100 on banker and $25 on player vs playing $75 on Banker. There is no need or reason to have two bets EXCEPT to earn comps. It can be accomplished via a single bet.
Given the size of the bankroll and the goal, I think it's not too difficult to hit the small win goal, but there will be an occurrence where EVERYTHING will be lost due to the combinations of player/banker plays that results in the complete annihilation of the bankroll.
Quote: thecesspitQuote: rob45
I will continue to post session results until either I finish the 500 sessions or the moderators ask me to stop.
Session 1
OXOXOXOXOOXXXOOXOOXXXO
Session result -$217.50
Balance -$217.50
I have it that you should quit after hand 9, as your 8.25 units in the hole (the 8 straight chops means every bet is a loss of around 1 unit).
I was playing to a loss limit of $300, as was approved by varmenti previously in this thread; however, he has stated to you that the loss limit is to be $200, so I will provide play analysis along with proper adjustment below.
I also got it as -$317.50 if you go through to the streak finishing after hand 20.
It is possible that one of us could have made an accounting error, and I certainly do not claim to be immune to any such error; however, I am more than willing to correct any inaccuracies.
Also, no tie in 22?
To the best of my knowledge, Ties are not to be considered in the betting progression. Therefore, I am not even recording Ties, and they have no influence on bet selection (or size) for the following hand.
The session continued until the Banker win stopped the "streak" of the previous Player wins.
Session 1 Starting balance: $200.00
01. Player bets 25, Banker bets 25 Banker wins. Balance is now $198.75
02. Banker bets 50, Player bets 25 Player wins. Balance is now $173.75
03. Player bets 50, Banker bets 25 Banker wins. Balance is now $147.50
04. Banker bets 50, Player bets 25 Player wins. Balance is now $122.50
05. Player bets 50, Banker bets 25 Banker wins. Balance is now $96.25
06. Banker bets 50, Player bets 25 Player wins. Balance is now $71.25
This should be the end of this session, as we no longer have enough left in the session balance to cover the bets for the next hand.
Session 1 result: $71.25 - $200.00 = -$128.75
Running total (the total results of all sessions to date): -$128.75
Most of us are well aware that a running total must be kept in order to prove or disprove the statement that the winning sessions overcome the losing sessions.
