Holy grail found (email me at colintrans@gmail.com, respected forum members only)
August 12th, 2012 at 9:42:26 AM
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I talked to a Blackjack AP who told me he was on a temporary bad variance streak which was going on for 5 months. Problem was that he was underfunded and lost his total bankroll.
So technically, one can still be considered an AP, even if they are not in the black.
So technically, one can still be considered an AP, even if they are not in the black.
August 12th, 2012 at 9:43:07 AM
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Quote: ExultantI have a bankroll of 2k, you guys are saying: Just keep playing risking it all, if your system does work than you will never go in debt.
Even with a full proof system, it is much easier to lose 2k than win 50k. That is why money management is important and you just don't get rich overnight or in a short time with a small bankroll.
It's true that even with an edge, you have a risk of ruin, just as even with the edge against you you'll sometimes double up. But by your estimation of 5k in a year of one-hour days with a 2k bankroll, you'll have doubled up after about 150 hours of play - what I'm asking is why not then double your units? You seem to feel 2k is a safe bankroll to be playing with whatever units you're playing now, so why wouldn't 4k be equally safe with double? You can always put it off a bit to bank some first.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
August 12th, 2012 at 9:43:20 AM
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Quote: JuyemuraHow many spins, rolls, hands, or bets would it take for you to be satisfied that someone has an edge?
This is a good question, but there *is* a mathematically profound answer.
Divide your variance (more precisely by the standard deviation) by the expected edge of a bet / roll /spin /hand.
Take this number and multiply it by 3 (better is 6).
This number is typically the number of bets / rolls / spins / hand you want some data.
Example:
You are the very inventor of the roulette game, claiming an edge of (+1) * 36/37 + (-35) * 1/37 = 2.7% on the player's number bet.
How many spins would you need to satisfy me (a potential investor) ?
EV is 2.7%. Standard deviation is sqrt( (+1)^2 * 36/37 + (-35)^2 * 1/37 - EV^2) = 5.8.
Hence you need to prove 3 * 5.8 / 0.027 = 644 (better is 1288) spins.
August 12th, 2012 at 9:51:03 AM
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Quote: 24BingoIt's true that even with an edge, you have a risk of ruin, just as even with the edge against you you'll sometimes double up. But by your estimation of 5k in a year of one-hour days with a 2k bankroll, you'll have doubled up after about 150 hours of play - what I'm asking is why not then double your units? You seem to feel 2k is a safe bankroll to be playing with whatever units you're playing now, so why wouldn't 4k be equally safe with double? You can always put it off a bit to bank some first.
If you keep doubling when you keep winning, eventually it will bankrupt you.
For example, you have 2k and bet in units of 10. You get it to 4k and bet units of 20, then you get it to 8k with units of 40 and etc. Eventually you will lose everything with just one bad long streak and that is why i prefer flat betting forever.
August 12th, 2012 at 9:57:04 AM
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Quote: ExultantIf you keep doubling when you keep winning, eventually it will bankrupt you.
Well at least he made this observation correctly.
August 12th, 2012 at 9:58:29 AM
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Quote: JuyemuraMosca, am I allowed to guess 36? That is my favorite number of all time!
My advice to you is to JUMP on that sucker, Jeff. But remember, timing is everything. It is best to jump right as it is about to be hit.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 10:00:07 AM
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Did Rob Singer move to Australia and change games?
August 12th, 2012 at 10:01:12 AM
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Quote: ExultantIf you keep doubling when you keep winning, eventually it will bankrupt you.
For example, you have 2k and bet in units of 10. You get it to 4k and bet units of 20, then you get it to 8k with units of 40 and etc. Eventually you will lose everything with just one bad long streak and that is why i prefer flat betting forever.
ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE. If what you say is true, then the converse must also be true: If it is true that if you keep doubling when you are winning you will eventually lose, then if you keep doubling when you are LOSING, eventually you will WIN. Therefore, if you keep doubling when you are WINNING, eventually you will WIN EVEN MORE.
Simple, when you see it through to its logical conclusion.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 10:04:36 AM
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MangoJ: Variance is the square of the standard deviation, not just a general word for measures of spread.
So bank some. Play until you hit 5k, bank 1k, and double your bets; on the next step up bank 2k, 4k, etc. Or work out the spread as well, and find a strategy that gets you an RoR you're comfortable with. Don't waste your system on 5k a year.
Quote: ExultantIf you keep doubling when you keep winning, eventually it will bankrupt you.
For example, you have 2k and bet in units of 10. You get it to 4k and bet units of 20, then you get it to 8k with units of 40 and etc. Eventually you will lose everything with just one bad long streak and that is why i prefer flat betting forever.
So bank some. Play until you hit 5k, bank 1k, and double your bets; on the next step up bank 2k, 4k, etc. Or work out the spread as well, and find a strategy that gets you an RoR you're comfortable with. Don't waste your system on 5k a year.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
August 12th, 2012 at 10:17:03 AM
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IF the OP really has an edge, one has to wager X% of the total bankroll on each spin using Kelly betting.
Anything else, other than Kelly or part Kelly, is pure suicide.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
In theory, max bankroll growth and 0% ruin
Keep the variance down.
Kelly Bet = edge / X to 1 payout times the bankroll
Anything else, other than Kelly or part Kelly, is pure suicide.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
In theory, max bankroll growth and 0% ruin
Keep the variance down.
Kelly Bet = edge / X to 1 payout times the bankroll
Xto1 3% edge 4% edge 5% edge
1 3.0000% 4.0000% 5.0000%
2 1.5000% 2.0000% 2.5000%
3 1.0000% 1.3333% 1.6667%
4 0.7500% 1.0000% 1.2500%
5 0.6000% 0.8000% 1.0000%
6 0.5000% 0.6667% 0.8333%
11 0.2727% 0.3636% 0.4545%
17 0.1765% 0.2353% 0.2941%
35 0.0857% 0.1143% 0.1429%
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 12th, 2012 at 10:21:45 AM
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I guess we will all know when a holy grail is found when the casino's start replacing the roulette wheels to ones that have 0, 00, and triple zero. lol
August 12th, 2012 at 10:31:06 AM
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Quote: ExultantNominate people, get them to post here and we will soon find out whether this is complete bs.
I nominate Joe.
Joe mama...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 10:37:39 AM
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Quote: 24BingoVariance is the square of the standard deviation, not just a general word for measures of spread.
Sure, I know that. If you read carefully, there was the very hint to use the standard deviation (and not the variance) as a proper measure.
I made the observation on this forum when talking about fluctuations, most non-math people call the random nature of their bet simply "variance", while the term "variance" is already reserved to the second order central moment in a mathematical context. I'm merely adapting to the usual style of communication, being aware in which context "variance" is being used. When the context is critical, without doubt it needs clarification for the math-educated guys.
August 12th, 2012 at 10:37:59 AM
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If one is to guess numbers, would now Power Ball Lottery be the preferred game. just asking ?
August 12th, 2012 at 11:32:27 AM
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Quote: buzzpaffIf one is to guess numbers, would now Power Ball Lottery be the preferred game. just asking ?
Man, that's a lot of numbers for one person to try to guess all at once! You would have to guess until you sweat blood! Have at it, though, one never knows! But my estimation is that you probably won't be able to guess more than one or two numbers, at least the first few dozen tries. You'd probably be best served guessing in lots of several thousand tickets at a time. Try that once or twice a week for a year, and log your results.
Most people prefer to try and guess one or two numbers at a time, repeatedly. It takes less brain power that way.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 11:47:09 AM
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Hey just guess the POWER BALL numbers and that alone can win you a fortune. Or get good at guessing numbers,and win that $1,000,000 Randi the Magnificent ( My Hero) has up for grabs.
August 12th, 2012 at 12:01:29 PM
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Sorry I missed all the - ahem - fun. I was out late last night and only noticed this now.
Hmmm.... I would have moved it to the circular file.
FYI: The "and vice versa" comment gave me a chuckle.
Quote: JBAdmin note: I have moved this thread to the B.S. forum.
(B.S. = Betting System, and vice versa)
Hmmm.... I would have moved it to the circular file.
FYI: The "and vice versa" comment gave me a chuckle.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 12th, 2012 at 12:07:20 PM
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I am confused Teddy. Are you implying this system does not work ? have you no shame !
August 12th, 2012 at 12:34:18 PM
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No.
I'm implying that I'm shocked that JB didn't just delete this thread.
I'm implying that I'm shocked that JB didn't just delete this thread.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 12th, 2012 at 12:51:12 PM
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TEDDY This thread is found under the heading " FORUMS "
An Internet forum, or message board, is an online discussion site where people can hold conversations in the form of posted messages.
No where is it stated that the conversation need be intelligent. People are banned from here for being rude to other posters.
There is no penalty for being IGNORANT !
An Internet forum, or message board, is an online discussion site where people can hold conversations in the form of posted messages.
No where is it stated that the conversation need be intelligent. People are banned from here for being rude to other posters.
There is no penalty for being IGNORANT !
August 12th, 2012 at 1:11:23 PM
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The truth will out.
The better you get at guessing numbers, the more you will win. If you don't want to practice, and you lose, don't blame me. Don't blame the system. Blame YOURSELF, for picking the wrong numbers at the wrong times.
The better you get at guessing numbers, the more you will win. If you don't want to practice, and you lose, don't blame me. Don't blame the system. Blame YOURSELF, for picking the wrong numbers at the wrong times.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 1:14:33 PM
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" Blame YOURSELF, for picking the wrong numbers at the wrong times. "
Truer words were never said !
Truer words were never said !
August 12th, 2012 at 1:39:38 PM
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Ok. JB ran the simulation for me. A European wheel was used. In one million spins the system resulted in a win 26,888 times, and a loss 973,112 times. This resulted in a loss of $32,032. The expected loss was $27,027. So negative variance reared its head.
Since the simulation showed that the holy grail has not been found, I feel that I am free to divulge this magical system to the forum.
"Bet on the previous number"
I kid you not!
Since the simulation showed that the holy grail has not been found, I feel that I am free to divulge this magical system to the forum.
"Bet on the previous number"
I kid you not!
August 12th, 2012 at 1:44:05 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOOk. JB ran the simulation for me. A European wheel was used. In one million spins the system resulted in a win 26,888 times, and a loss 973,112 times. This resulted in a loss of $32,032. The expected loss was $27,027. So negative variance reared its head.
Since the simulation showed that the holy grail has not been found, I feel that I am free to divulge this magical system to the forum.
"Bet on the previous number"
I kid you not!
" Blame YOURSELF, for picking the wrong numbers at the wrong times "
Did you bet on the first previous number, on the one I guessed of the previous 23 numbers?
Evidently you do NOT understand the system !
August 12th, 2012 at 1:56:38 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
"Bet on the previous number"
I kid you not!
Is this guy joking? He thinks
in 200 years of roulette nobody had this stroke
of geinus? Every newbie has, and tries it, and
rejects it. Whats next, bet the opposite of the
last spin?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 2:03:49 PM
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Sheesh. You only want to bet on the previous number when it is going to come up again! If the previous number ALWAYS came up, then it would always be the same number! I actually had a croupier try to tell me to do that. I could barely contain my scorn, if SHE knew what number was going to come up next she would have been out there on the table next to me!
Just sitting here now, I've thought of 17, 22, 4, and 11. Not once did I think, "11... 11," (or the like). Maybe a different time I would, but not today.
Just sitting here now, I've thought of 17, 22, 4, and 11. Not once did I think, "11... 11," (or the like). Maybe a different time I would, but not today.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 2:10:51 PM
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" Just sitting here now, I've thought of 17, 22, 4, and 11. Not once did I think, "11... 11,"
No Bob I defy you to find this sort of new wave thinking in any of your old books !
No Bob I defy you to find this sort of new wave thinking in any of your old books !
August 12th, 2012 at 3:02:52 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO"Bet on the previous number"
I guess if the wheel has a strong bias towards a specific section, this strategy could work (the biased numbers come up more frequently, and hence show up in pairs with a higher probability)... The "beauty" would be: You would not need to identify the biased section beforehand.
August 12th, 2012 at 4:28:48 PM
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Quote: EdgeLookerI guess we will all know when a holy grail is found when the casino's start replacing the roulette wheels to ones that have 0, 00, and triple zero. lol
000 Roulette!!!
D***IT!!!
I got all the way through Page 6 with no sign of 000 Roulette, and then first post on Page 7!!!
I thought I had that one. I was going to say that I worked the system at The Meadows, and have them so scared they moved to 000 Roulette henceforward.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 12th, 2012 at 4:44:43 PM
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Bet the previous number?
No disrespect to the OP'er, but I had a casino game for Sega Genesis when I was about ten, or so, Ceasar's Palace, to be specific. It is no coincidence that 10 is the same age at which I discovered that the, "Bet the previous number,"...ahem...system...fails miserably.
I think I have the answer, though, Bet/Martingale the previous color. Can't lose. (I'm kidding, of course.)
No disrespect to the OP'er, but I had a casino game for Sega Genesis when I was about ten, or so, Ceasar's Palace, to be specific. It is no coincidence that 10 is the same age at which I discovered that the, "Bet the previous number,"...ahem...system...fails miserably.
I think I have the answer, though, Bet/Martingale the previous color. Can't lose. (I'm kidding, of course.)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 12th, 2012 at 7:08:08 PM
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Oh boy do i feel silly. I sent the wrong system and actually been applying it in the casino and that's why i'm down so much. I just thought it was a very very bad streak. I will post the real system to soopoo again. So sorry, flame all you want, such an amateur mistake.
August 12th, 2012 at 7:25:21 PM
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Give me maximum 5 hours soopoo, i'm at work and i will tell you a way for you to test it yourself and be convinced even if JB is more skilled at it.
August 12th, 2012 at 7:27:00 PM
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Dont worry buddy I got you're back just keep guessing numbers.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 7:50:22 PM
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I welcome everyone who has found the "Holy Grail" of betting systems to come use it at the Venetian.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 12th, 2012 at 7:52:10 PM
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Quote: ExultantOh boy do i feel silly. I sent the wrong system and actually been applying it in the casino and that's why i'm down so much.
Betting the last number is a system?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 7:56:13 PM
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Sent the wrong system? This guy should be a stockbroker. lol
August 12th, 2012 at 7:58:09 PM
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Quote: EdgeLookerSent the wrong system? This guy should be a stockbroker. lol
I'm sure whatever he sends will be twice as good.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 8:06:22 PM
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I am going to send it publicly for everyone in 7 hours as i am working overtime and there is no excuse for sending the wrong system.
August 12th, 2012 at 8:14:39 PM
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Can I guess?
Is it, "Bet the number that came up two numbers ago?"
That would be much more sophisticated a system.
Is it, "Bet the number that came up two numbers ago?"
That would be much more sophisticated a system.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 12th, 2012 at 8:15:31 PM
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Quote: Exultantno excuse for sending the wrong system.
or for using the wrong system;-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
August 12th, 2012 at 8:18:30 PM
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Quote: Mission146Can I guess?
Is it, "Bet the number that came up two numbers ago?"
That would be much more sophisticated a system.
Can I guess too? Can I, can I? I say its bet
opposite of the last spin. If its red, bet black.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 8:19:51 PM
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Quote: EvenBobCan I guess too? Can I, can I? I say its bet
opposite of the last spin. If its red, bet black.
I don't think that's it, but great idea!!! Isn't Black going to be more likely if Red came up the previous time since they are supposed to come up the same number of times? Throw a Martingale somewhere in there and it is perfect!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 12th, 2012 at 8:24:21 PM
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Quote: Mission146I don't think that's it, but great idea!!! Isn't Black going to be more likely if Red came up the previous time since they are supposed to come up the same number of times? Throw a Martingale somewhere in there and it is perfect!
The first streak will bust a Marty in record time.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2012 at 8:30:32 PM
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"Bet the last 5 numbers".
If the poster did simulate with a badly seeded RNG, there's several ways you can get false positives.
If the poster did simulate with a badly seeded RNG, there's several ways you can get false positives.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 12th, 2012 at 8:33:18 PM
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If the number is going to repeat, then by all means you should bet it! The problem is that the number doesn't always repeat! In those instances you should bet on a different number!
A falling knife has no handle.
August 12th, 2012 at 8:37:08 PM
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Quote: EvenBobCan I guess too? Can I, can I? I say its bet
opposite of the last spin. If its red, bet black.
Exactly correct no joke.
August 12th, 2012 at 8:38:22 PM
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I love theses roulette betting system threads hands down the most entertaining.
Did the wizard just welcome card counters to the venetian? :)
Evenbob right now I'm stuffing handfuls of alder smoked king salmon in my face. Caught and smoked em myself. 25 bucks for a license and a 5 minute drive to the snohomish river. Don't drool on your keyboard it may short out your computer. :)
Did the wizard just welcome card counters to the venetian? :)
Evenbob right now I'm stuffing handfuls of alder smoked king salmon in my face. Caught and smoked em myself. 25 bucks for a license and a 5 minute drive to the snohomish river. Don't drool on your keyboard it may short out your computer. :)
August 12th, 2012 at 8:38:36 PM
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Test it for yourself.
August 12th, 2012 at 8:40:07 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThe first streak will bust a Marty in record time.
Please tell me you're messing with me and knew I was kidding!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
