LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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July 16th, 2020 at 11:06:46 AM permalink
On 6-Jul-2020 protestors and news media were singled out as a primary cause for coronavirus disease in Mississippi. Not casinos or the economy reopening in early June.

Less than a week later, on 10-Jul-2020, Mississippi's C-virus explosion resulted in a mask requirement for the state's major urban areas, including all counties with casinos. In announcing the mask mandate, the governor stated, "Mississippi is in a fight for our lives." Health resources are already stressed in these areas as the virus spreads. We'll all get to see if Mississippi escapes "alive" once we finish counting the bodies.

Until we all wear masks -- and wear them like all our lives depend on wearing them -- we cannot hope to control coronavirus. However, gamblers have now been put on notice: In Mississippi they gamble with their lives.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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July 16th, 2020 at 1:48:22 PM permalink
The CDC won't be letting the public know if states limbo under the 100 new daily cases per million bar that visitors to NYS must go under to avoid getting an immediate 14 day quarantine or a $2,000 fine. NYS should just ban all states until the CDC gets fixed.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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July 16th, 2020 at 2:31:36 PM permalink
Miami police: 68 officers test positive for COVID 19, 140 employees now in quarantine.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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July 16th, 2020 at 2:44:37 PM permalink
Hong Kong is shutting down again while reporting 67 new cases for the day. Contact tracing isn't working. There's a several hundred dollar fine for not wearing a mask on public transit. Big city, super spreaders.
DeMango
DeMango
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July 18th, 2020 at 10:28:56 AM permalink
Interesting covid byproduct. At The Beau a player is allowed to play 2 positions at Mississippi Stud. One hand at a time. Of course picking up the second hand does give information of how to play both hands. Would it not suck to have both hands same pocket pairs!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Mission146
Mission146
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July 18th, 2020 at 10:53:48 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Interesting covid byproduct. At The Beau a player is allowed to play 2 positions at Mississippi Stud. One hand at a time. Of course picking up the second hand does give information of how to play both hands. Would it not suck to have both hands same pocket pairs!



Depends. You've either got guaranteed winners, guaranteed pushes (at worst) where you're hoping for a boat or 2P, or now you have the ability to fold what would generally be a fairly marginal 3x bet that you normally would lose anyway. (+EV, but I mean you would normally lose when it comes to probability)

PROOF:

50/52 cards are unknown, but two of the fifty match the pair normally. We first do not want the trips, then we do not want any of the now five cards that would give us trips or a two pair, finally we do not want any of the now eight cards that would give us trips or two pair:

(48/50 * 44/49 * 40/48) = 0.71836734693

So, 71.836734693% to lose.

Your new loss probability essentially just eliminates the two known cards from the deck and everything else stays the same:

(48/48 * 44/47 * 40/46) = 0.81406105457

Each win is easy to calculate, because any win that is not a full house is a two pair, so you just calculate for the probability of a full house:

(48/48 * 3/47 * 2/46) = 0.00277520814, so:

1-0.00277520814-0.81406105457 = 0.18316373729 is the new probability of winning with two pair.

Maybe I'm in a glass half-full mood, but I just look at it as the ability to create a deck composition based strategy that chips away at the house edge a little bit. It all balances out because the 3x bet becomes that much better of a raise for an inside low pair when the cards in your other hand don't match the pair. When they do, the 3x initial raise just becomes a guaranteed 1x raise for the next two cards to come out.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DeMango
DeMango
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July 18th, 2020 at 3:17:52 PM permalink
Eyes glazed over.

So is there a decrease in HA, increase or no difference, with of course increase in variance?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Mission146
Mission146
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July 18th, 2020 at 3:28:34 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Eyes glazed over.

So is there a decrease in HA, increase or no difference, with of course increase in variance?



The ability to make deck composition dependent decisions would effectively lead to a slight decrease in house edge. Perhaps more than, ‘Slight,’ but I doubt that and would have to do the math to quantify it. In most cases, a player’s decision would be unaffected by knowing only two extra cards...mostly borderline cases would change.

ADDED: Here’s an article Teliot wrote about MS collusion:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.888casino.com/blog/novelty-games/mississippi-stud-collusion%3Famp
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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July 18th, 2020 at 3:38:56 PM permalink
Reading that article that discusses How’s strategy, it looks like the low pair with knowing one of the trips cards is impossible would be a fold.

Haha. That tells you how much MS I have played, I forgot that you COULD fold. That makes sense. A ton of the 3x raise value comes from the fact that the next card can give you trips which can lead to more 3x bets and potentially quads. With quads made impossible, it just becomes a fold.
Vultures can't be choosers.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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July 18th, 2020 at 3:56:57 PM permalink
Yeah and face up play helps the player for sure if they know how to adjust. If you can see 6 hands face up, MS Stud can become +EV.

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