Thread Rating:

billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 253
  • Posts: 17176
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 6th, 2020 at 8:16:00 AM permalink
I used to be able to understand Bushmillian but am long out of practice.
While fairy obscure, you can often hear it in Irish dive bars around dusk.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6284
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
March 6th, 2020 at 10:24:33 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Limes. Lyme and Old Lyme were New England towns with an abundance of tick bites that spread disease to humans.



You missed the joke.



And limes do make Corona bearable.

But I said I felt bad for Corona, but I also never supported them in the first place. But it's stupid that a business gets hurt solely on the name alone.

But I haven't bought a Corona in 21 years (senior trip to Mexico), and ain't gonna start now. If they still owned their billion-dollar blunder Ballast Point, then I might buy a 6 pack of that. I also haven't bought that in years, too expensive for the quality. But it was reported it was sold to a no-name Chicago brewery for much, much, much less in December.

As for the virus itself. Probably gonna be a fun spring. Ugh. Remember to wash your hands everyone. Bleh.
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
March 6th, 2020 at 7:33:33 PM permalink
LA Times article on the virus arriving in Vegas.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 7th, 2020 at 8:27:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not to minimize the effect this is having, but I'm sure the death rate on those infected will be far less than 1%. Remember, there will be many victims who seek no medical attention, and just be sick for a while and then get better. They will not be included in the 'non fatality' group. While pretty much everyone that does die will be included. And the 90 year old metastatic cancer patient barely hanging on will be listed as a coronavirus death if infected even if he was about to die from the cancer.

I see nothing wrong with the government's response. What would you want it to do? Ban travelers from Iran? China?



No, the rate is determined mostly from overseas, where they're aggressively testing and reporting even mild cases.

As of yesterday, it was 109,xxx total cases, 3,4xx deaths, for almost exactly 3.4% . Those are real numbers, not "feel with your gut" numbers.

The mildness also relates to your age. If you're above 60, it's 10-15% death rate. Under age 9, it's 0%.

So those of us in or near the older demographic are being much more cautious - at least those of us who are relying on medical and scientific sources.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12764
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
March 7th, 2020 at 10:47:30 AM permalink
When the mortality rate approaches 3% of the population I will start following it a lot closer.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 7th, 2020 at 11:54:25 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

When the mortality rate approaches 3% of the population I will start following it a lot closer.



Lol. You're a math guy. What part of my previous post was tough to understand?

Technically, we're at about 5% in the US. 338 reported cases, 17 deaths.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12764
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
March 7th, 2020 at 12:04:47 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Lol. You're a math guy. What part of my previous post was tough to understand?

Technically, we're at about 5% in the US. 338 reported cases, 17 deaths.



I am speaking of 3% of the population, not 3% of identified cases. That would be over 9 million deaths in the U.S. Then I would begin some serious precautions.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 7th, 2020 at 12:38:49 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am speaking of 3% of the population, not 3% of identified cases. That would be over 9 million deaths in the U.S. Then I would begin some serious precautions.



Sadly, that's not out of the question, but right now they're treating it as worst case. But with zero herd immunity, it's pretty inevitable that we all will get it unless they manage a vaccine in the next year.

Without the widespread testing we need right now and still can't do, there has to be a geometric progression on contagion going on right now. It's just math.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 7th, 2020 at 1:17:34 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

It's just math.

Math when source data is headline differs from math when source data is a bit more reliable. Luggage handlers getting sick, but not fellow passengers re-breathing the cabin air seems strange. 'People on board a ship versus people sharing stateroom air conditioning ducts produces different math.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 7th, 2020 at 3:07:27 PM permalink
They don't know enough yet, but one study being quoted says BEST case world-wide, given what we know now, is 15 MILLION deaths and a 2.6 Trillion economic hit.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6284
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
March 7th, 2020 at 3:30:39 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Lol. You're a math guy. What part of my previous post was tough to understand?

Technically, we're at about 5% in the US. 338 reported cases, 17 deaths.



We're one of the highest percentages worldwide. Doh. But that's partly because of that nursing home that got it. Now 70 of their workers are showing symptoms too. :(

The reported count is over 400 now.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 218
  • Posts: 12696
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
March 7th, 2020 at 3:51:10 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

They don't know enough yet, but one study being quoted says BEST case world-wide, given what we know now, is 15 MILLION deaths and a 2.6 Trillion economic hit.



I think that's worst case. Maybe things went more south since I last checked.

We could try to figure it out from an early starter like China, but China can enforce some pretty stringent policies. They will probably knock it down faster than any other large population, if it is possible to do so by enforcement of policies rather than specific treatment.
Sanitized for Your Protection
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6284
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
Thanked by
michael99000
March 7th, 2020 at 6:55:03 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I think that's worst case. Maybe things went more south since I last checked.

We could try to figure it out from an early starter like China, but China can enforce some pretty stringent policies. They will probably knock it down faster than any other large population, if it is possible to do so by enforcement of policies rather than specific treatment.



I'm guessing stricter enforcement helped. Quarantines will help, but I don't know it's enough to significantly stop the spread. Iirc, this can spread when people don't have symptoms. Any disease like that is problematic.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 170
  • Posts: 22669
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
Minty
March 7th, 2020 at 7:17:14 PM permalink
Mike Pence is in charge of this? Yikes.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
March 7th, 2020 at 7:18:44 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Mike Pence is in charge of this? Yikes.

Better than that bartender!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1190
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
March 7th, 2020 at 8:56:42 PM permalink
Some are trying HIV medication to treat coronavirus.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-patient-in-spain-reportedly-recovers-after-being-treated-with-hiv-drug/

http://www.natap.org/2020/newsUpdates/020420_02.htm
Pray for protection from enemies and witchcraft.
Minty
Minty
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 536
Joined: Jan 23, 2015
March 7th, 2020 at 11:03:54 PM permalink
Over read a few posts that really express how challenging containment can be when for many workers the norm is coming in to work when sick. For those who want to self quarantine, it may not be feasible due to lack of funds. I've heard various numbers, but something like 40% of Americans couldn't immediately handle an unexpected $400 expense. Hoping we get something under control, but between slowness to action and financial strain for people this might be a bigger issue than I originally thought.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
BigDad
BigDad
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 56
Joined: Jun 20, 2019
March 8th, 2020 at 7:47:05 AM permalink
A little bit tired of this news about the virus. I hope this will all be over soon: both the virus and the hype surrounding it..
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 170
  • Posts: 22669
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
March 8th, 2020 at 9:35:20 AM permalink
Due to Coronavirus, a Costco in Oregon ran out of toilet paper for the first time in its history.

I'm pretty sure buying toilet paper would be last on my list of things to buy. Cases of Coca-Cola Minis would be the top of my list, of course.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 170
  • Posts: 22669
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
March 8th, 2020 at 9:50:22 AM permalink
CoronaCoin: A coronavirus speculative deathwatch cryptocurrency

https://cointelegraph.com/news/steem-scandal-blockchain-voting-fiasco-more-bad-crypto-news-of-the-week
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz 
  • Threads: 300
  • Posts: 11883
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
March 8th, 2020 at 11:13:50 AM permalink
Well it isn't mentioned yet as this is breaking news but looks like the first Coronavirus casino robbery has occurred

Bandits wore surgical masks which have become prevalent and a common sight due to the Coronavirus

Took place last night. $270,000 cash stolen

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-resorts-world-casino-robbery-20200308-itccl477mjh3dbv65l7hm3bque-story.html
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 218
  • Posts: 12696
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
March 8th, 2020 at 11:31:58 AM permalink
There is porn based on the coronavirus.
Sanitized for Your Protection
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
March 8th, 2020 at 12:18:54 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Well it isn't mentioned yet as this is breaking news but looks like the first Coronavirus casino robbery has occurred

Bandits wore surgical masks which have become prevalent and a common sight due to the Coronavirus

Took place last night. $270,000 cash stolen

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-resorts-world-casino-robbery-20200308-itccl477mjh3dbv65l7hm3bque-story.html


God that's brilliant. You have to admit it. Under normal circumstances we live in an age where wearing a mask in public (even a Halloween mask on Halloween) is either illegal or looked upon with extreme suspicion. (Think of creepy clown scares or "V for Vendetta" protesters or defeated facial recognition tech.)

Now, suddenly, an opportunity presents itself to wear a mask into a public location where lots of cash is kept and nobody will even look twice at you. It seems obvious in retrospect.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 529
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
March 8th, 2020 at 3:23:38 PM permalink
I'm wondering if a surgical mask is enough to prevent a facial recognition algorithm from doing a match. A lot of the match-points they use are based around the eyes.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
March 8th, 2020 at 3:31:04 PM permalink
The new style now seems to be gait recognition which doesn't need a face at all...

Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
darkoz
darkoz 
  • Threads: 300
  • Posts: 11883
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
March 8th, 2020 at 5:20:27 PM permalink
For those not familiar with the layout of this particular casino...

Outside the building is a massive parking lot and no matter the direction it's a looong walk to the exit gates

So either they walked/ran that looong distance hauling their loot or they hopped into a getaway car waiting for them in the parking lot. Which would be really stupid. They have cameras and licence plate ID system at all the entrance and exits to the property.

And if they removed their masks while running with the loot to "saunter" nonchalantly off property I am certain the camera would catch that as well.

I'm pretty stumped at this point
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 218
  • Posts: 12696
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
March 8th, 2020 at 10:26:02 PM permalink
Bank robberies are one of the easiest crimes to get away with initially without anyone even trying to stop you. But they also have the highest arrest rate.

Makes you wonder if the Feds have more tricks up their sleeve than they let on.
Sanitized for Your Protection
UP84
UP84
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 373
Joined: May 22, 2012
March 9th, 2020 at 4:26:35 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Bank robberies are one of the easiest crimes to get away with initially without anyone even trying to stop you. But they also have the highest arrest rate.

Makes you wonder if the Feds have more tricks up their sleeve than they let on.


Most bank robbery arrests are made by local and state law enforcement.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
March 9th, 2020 at 6:16:36 AM permalink
Was watching a video about the markets crashing, he is calling it the "RONA" virus. I hate things like this, corporate censorship I suppose. It's like when the person on the plane threw a SPRITE at a fellow passenger because of the seat defender, and the news articles started lying saying it was water. As if people will never buy Sprite or Corona again.
I am a robot.
LAD
LAD
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 50
Joined: May 18, 2015
March 9th, 2020 at 9:14:57 AM permalink
I live about 12 miles from RW Aqueduct. From what I read....The robbery was at the race track not the casino.

Money ( daily cash ) was being transferred from one floor to a vault on another floor when the robbery happened. Obviously an inside job. Someone who knew when the transfer would take place.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 9th, 2020 at 5:45:02 PM permalink
Quote: UP84

Most bank robbery arrests are made by local and state law enforcement.

And most don't involve vault access, just cash in a teller's draw so the "take" is usually miniscule.
rawtuff
rawtuff
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 350
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
March 11th, 2020 at 3:03:01 AM permalink
Given that currently there are 119,389 cases confirmed and the average daily rate of increase in infections is 11% what will be the formula to calculate the expected infections increase after 90 days?
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 11th, 2020 at 4:34:58 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

what will be the formula to calculate the expected infections increase after 90 days?

IF they are all young, healthy, take zinc, selenium, garlic, ginger and gin, take sauna treatments and fight it off, who cares?

The questions are viral load, immune system status, availability of treatment.
rawtuff
rawtuff
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 350
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
March 11th, 2020 at 9:07:56 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



Thanks for the non answer filled with trivia we all know since kids.
Never done that before in my life but I'm actually blocking this guy, I know he has health issues etc but his never on topic blabbering is wearing me thin.
Still looking for an answer to this one.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 529
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
Thanked by
rawtuff
March 11th, 2020 at 9:56:39 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Given that currently there are 119,389 cases confirmed and the average daily rate of increase in infections is 11% what will be the formula to calculate the expected infections increase after 90 days?


If the daily increase is x% then after y days the increase is x to the y power. If the 11%/day number is valid then you're looking at ~ 12,000X increase from your base of ~120k. Unless I misplaced a decimal place, thats roughly 1.4 billion people. The current global population is 7.7 billion so we're looking at ~ 18%. By comparison, the Spanish Flu pandemic was estimated to infect ~ 27% of the global population while Swine flu hit somewhere in the range of 11-21%.

FWIW, I was taking to an MD a couple of days ago who said he had just read a report that they expect all US hospitals to be a full capacity with 100% of the beds and ICUs occupied by the end of summer.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 529
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
March 11th, 2020 at 9:58:22 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

IF they are all young, healthy, take zinc, selenium, garlic, ginger and gin, take sauna treatments and fight it off, who cares?


You care because they are carriers who can and will infect others.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 11th, 2020 at 11:46:03 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

You care because they are carriers who can and will infect others.


Quote: TublingBones

You care

Frankly, I don't.
Those "others" will decline in number and the victims will still be the very old and very sick.
This hysteria is based on poor surveillance, slow-to-act paper pushers and media use of ill-defined terminology such as 'infected' and 'quarantined'.
"cases" can refer to suspected rather than confirmed.
Japan incubated the virus aboard a cruise ship but then unleashed the victims on the world instead of treating them.

When New Zealand had a volcanic eruption it treated all victims. When China and Japan had this outbreak, they exported victims and forced other countries to shoulder the cost.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 529
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
Thanked by
rsactuary
March 11th, 2020 at 12:23:17 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Quote: TublingBones

You care

Frankly, I don't.
Those "others" will decline in number and the victims will still be the very old and very sick.
This hysteria is based on poor surveillance, slow-to-act paper pushers and media use of ill-defined terminology such as 'infected' and 'quarantined'.
"cases" can refer to suspected rather than confirmed.
Japan incubated the virus aboard a cruise ship but then unleashed the victims on the world instead of treating them.

When New Zealand had a volcanic eruption it treated all victims. When China and Japan had this outbreak, they exported victims and forced other countries to shoulder the cost.


Not worth the time even trying to figure out what point this gibberish is supposed to be making, let alone responding to it.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
March 11th, 2020 at 2:56:50 PM permalink
A shame we can’t do over/under on 1.4 billion in 90 days. We could be rich on the under.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
rawtuff
rawtuff
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 350
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
Thanked by
tringlomane
March 11th, 2020 at 3:25:29 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

A shame we can’t do over/under on 1.4 billion in 90 days. We could be rich on the under.



yeah well that would be too easy, there are no 1.4 billion test kits in the world
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 170
  • Posts: 22669
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
March 11th, 2020 at 3:36:51 PM permalink
Apparently, a guest staying at the Mirage in LV during the first part of the month was confirmed to have have the Corona Virus. I only caught part of what they said about it on K NPR, so this needs some fact checking.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 11th, 2020 at 3:57:00 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Apparently, a guest staying at the Mirage in LV during the first part of the month was confirmed to have have the Corona Virus. I only caught part of what they said about it on K NPR, so this needs some fact checking.


Female in 40s from New York attended Women in Power event but roomed at the Mirage. Her room is being Deep Cleaned. Implication is most of her time and close associations were not at the Mirage.

Conference ended March 8th. No explicit statement as to any subsequent guest or when Mirage received the notification.
Last edited by: FleaStiff on Mar 11, 2020
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
March 11th, 2020 at 5:19:56 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

yeah well that would be too easy, there are no 1.4 billion test kits in the world

and there won’t be 1.4 billion cases in 90 days either. Funny how it doesn’t get mentioned new cases in Wuhan are way down and all eight newly built hospitals there have closed.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
darkoz
darkoz 
  • Threads: 300
  • Posts: 11883
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
Thanked by
rawtuffAxelWolf
March 11th, 2020 at 6:01:18 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

and there won’t be 1.4 billion cases in 90 days either. Funny how it doesn’t get mentioned new cases in Wuhan are way down and all eight newly built hospitals there have closed.



That's after militia surrounded the entire city and imprisoned millions in the area within the quarantine zone.

That's not gonna happen in the states
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
March 11th, 2020 at 11:01:09 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

That's after militia surrounded the entire city and imprisoned millions in the area within the quarantine zone.

That's not gonna happen in the states


If I remember right, and I have already forgotten the source, figures tossed about here in US: 98 million infected, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths. Maybe that correlates to the 1.4 billion worldwide, maybe not. With the mass hysteria out their, which may be a good thing, everybody is on notice, or will be, and take the precautions not to let the large numbers come about. Hey it's March 12, let Mdawg out!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 11th, 2020 at 11:08:16 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

and there won’t be 1.4 billion cases in 90 days either. Funny how it doesn’t get mentioned new cases in Wuhan are way down and all eight newly built hospitals there have closed.

And the original reporter has disappeared.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 12th, 2020 at 3:01:42 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Given that currently there are 119,389 cases confirmed and the average daily rate of increase in infections is 11% what will be the formula to calculate the expected infections increase after 90 days?



11% would mean doubling every 9.09 days, call it 9 days, since you're working with a flat percentage . So double your number 10 times, you'll have a raw and rough expectation after 90 days.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 12th, 2020 at 3:07:14 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

If I remember right, and I have already forgotten the source, figures tossed about here in US: 98 million infected, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths. Maybe that correlates to the 1.4 billion worldwide, maybe not. With the mass hysteria out their, which may be a good thing, everybody is on notice, or will be, and take the precautions not to let the large numbers come about. Hey it's March 12, let Mdawg out!



He's out, for crying out loud.

Testimony from the lead health expert to Congress (can't remember his title) yesterday said he expects between 70 million and 150 million infected in the US. That translates to between 14 and 30 million serious cases requiring hospitalization, and 2 to 4 million deaths, if worldwide statistics are accurate and hold true to us.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
March 12th, 2020 at 3:30:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

if worldwide statistics are accurate and hold true to us.

Ah. there's the rub!
Consider social proximity. In the coastal USA people stand much closer than in the MidWest. In Italy people line up extremely close and in the Middle East it is often even closer.

Alot of the current statistics involved sustained exposure in conveyances, such as planes and cruise ships. Also prior statistics involved travelers which entails disrupted circadian rhythms, malnourishment, lack of exercise and lack of prompt access to health care.

The USA is 'primed', many are over-primed.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
March 12th, 2020 at 11:12:44 AM permalink
If all forms of crowds get cancelled, and MLB seems to be next, people stay away from airlines and cruise ships, I cannot see the doomsday predictions. Guess I need to change my signature!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
  • Jump to: