GN AC vs. Darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

If you can use freeplay on E-roulette, bet both red and black with a green hedge and you can easily calculate your formula for guaranteed realized return.
link to original post

I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?

It sounds similar to betting both pass and don't pass in craps with a hedge bet on 12 but there's no positive return possible in that scenario.

If it's different in E-roulette I'd to know it is?
link to original post

Oh my false prophets, is this really possible that you don't get guaranteed expectations on Freeplay using it at E-roulette???

I walk in to casino with no money in my pocket. Just a player's card with $75 freeplay.

I download the $75 Freeplay into the E-roulette. I wager $35 on red and simultaneously wager $35 on black and stick $5 on green

Guaranteed I am walking out with a minimum of $70 cash I didn't have before.

The game isn't +ev but my use of freeplay makes the return guaranteed.

No wonder you guys can't understand the full import of what I do, SMH.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

If you can use freeplay on E-roulette, bet both red and black with a green hedge and you can easily calculate your formula for guaranteed realized return.
link to original post

I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?

It sounds similar to betting both pass and don't pass in craps with a hedge bet on 12 but there's no positive return possible in that scenario.

If it's different in E-roulette I'd to know it is?
link to original post

Oh my false prophets, is this really possible that you don't get guaranteed expectations on Freeplay using it at E-roulette???

I walk in to casino with no money in my pocket. Just a player's card with $75 freeplay.

I download the $75 Freeplay into the E-roulette. I wager $35 on red and simultaneously wager $35 on black and stick $5 on green

Guaranteed I am walking out with a minimum of $70 cash I didn't have before.

The game isn't +ev but my use of freeplay makes the return guaranteed.

No wonder you guys can't understand the full import of what I do, SMH.
link to original post

We all understand that.

What I don't understand is what it cost you to get that $75 of free play. And I don't think I'm alone.

Once you have $75:of free play and can convert that into $35 cash the math is simple:

$20,000 ÷ $35 = 571 plays (or cards, if you're doing that in a week)

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?
link to original post

Not unless you know where the ball will land on the next spin.

Assuming my snowglobe doesn't reliably tell me, it is possible to convert predictably, at a bit under 95% return.

I still prefer deuces.

Quote: coachbelly

For this exercise, a win is considered being ahead after wagering $5000...that happens all the time.

Quote: tuttigym

What a remarkable statement. And you KNOW THIS HOW?

I've witnessed it too many times to count.

A $5K wager in one day is not that much play...it only generates 200 points for full pay VP at Caesars' properties.

Don't you believe that players can finish ahead for the day playing VP?

Alan has interviewed a player who has a betting strategy that profits 8 out of 10 days that he plays.

Quote: coachbelly

You could play $100 per credit and wager $500 per hand...that would take 10 hands to reach 5000 points, in less than 10 minutes.
Or you could play $10 per credit and $50 per hand, to reach 5000 points after 100 hands, in less than an hour.

Quote: tuttigym

Is that your MO. I would almost pay to see you play 10 hands at $500 per. That happens "all the time" and only lose $200? Fat chance

Those are examples illustrating the time it could take to wager $5K on a VP machine.
You had asked earlier how long that would take.

$500 per hand is not my MO, but I'll occasionally play $50 per hand.

You don't have to pay (or almost pay) to watch someone play $500 per hand, you just need to spot someone playing a $100 per credit machine.

Quote: darkoz

I walk in to casino with no money in my pocket. Just a player's card with $75 freeplay.

I download the $75 Freeplay into the E-roulette. I wager $35 on red and simultaneously wager $35 on black and stick $5 on green

Guaranteed I am walking out with a minimum of $70 cash I didn't have before.

The game isn't +ev but my use of freeplay makes the return guaranteed.

No wonder you guys can't understand the full import of what I do, SMH.
link to original post

I think you misspoke.

When you divide $75 of free play into three bets only one bet wins:

$35 red wins $35
$35 black wins $35
$5 green wins $___ (I'm not sure, I dont play this)

But I dont think you're getting $70. Are you???

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?
link to original post

Not unless you know where the ball will land on the next spin.

Assuming my snowglobe doesn't reliably tell me, it is possible to convert predictably, at a bit under 95% return.

I still prefer deuces.
link to original post

I think the return is closer to 50%. As I wrote above you only win one of the 3 bets.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

I walk in to casino with no money in my pocket. Just a player's card with $75 freeplay.

I download the $75 Freeplay into the E-roulette. I wager $35 on red and simultaneously wager $35 on black and stick $5 on green

Guaranteed I am walking out with a minimum of $70 cash I didn't have before.

The game isn't +ev but my use of freeplay makes the return guaranteed.

No wonder you guys can't understand the full import of what I do, SMH.
link to original post

I think you misspoke.

When you divide $75 of free play into three bets only one bet wins:

$35 red wins $35
$35 black wins $35
$5 green wins $___ (I'm not sure, I dont play this)

But I dont think you're getting $70. Are you???
link to original post

That this has to be spelled out is incredible.

Red wins $35. I get the $35 win AND the $35 wager which wasn't using my money but freeplay. Cash out!

I literally could walk in with zero money in my pocket and a player card with $75 freeplay, make the above wager and cash out with $70 I did not have prior to walking in.

If you don't think turning the freeplay into cash to leave with is the plan, then I can't explain it any other way.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

I walk in to casino with no money in my pocket. Just a player's card with $75 freeplay.

I download the $75 Freeplay into the E-roulette. I wager $35 on red and simultaneously wager $35 on black and stick $5 on green

Guaranteed I am walking out with a minimum of $70 cash I didn't have before.

The game isn't +ev but my use of freeplay makes the return guaranteed.

No wonder you guys can't understand the full import of what I do, SMH.
link to original post

I think you misspoke.

When you divide $75 of free play into three bets only one bet wins:

$35 red wins $35
$35 black wins $35
$5 green wins $___ (I'm not sure, I dont play this)

But I dont think you're getting $70. Are you???
link to original post

Not everyone came from a background of a recreational roulette player. People have brain farts or senior moments as well.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I think the return is closer to 50%. As I wrote above you only win one of the 3 bets.

Your original bet is returned to you if you win...a $35 bet returns $70.

It's like making 2 pair in VP, you bet 1 credit and "win" 2 credits, one of which is your original bet.

There used to be a guy at the Rosyln Duck Pond in the late 1970s who would preach the gospel to the ducks. I'm beginning to understand him. Thirty-odd pages of explanations and some people haven't gotten off of square one.
Minds are like parachutes. They are only useful when open.

Sorry guys but when I use free play at a table game the original wager is kept by the casino.

This is the case at Red Rock and Suncoast. It's been five years since I played at Caesars but I recall that very rarely a free play table bet could be reused.

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

So again, how do you get $70????

Or some people are using their parachutes for drag… (Don’t get excited, Axel. Not that kind of drag!)

Quote: AlanMendelson

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

If you activated/downloaded $35 of freeplay onto a "Bet 10" $5 VP machine, wagered 7 credits on your first hand and made 2 pair, you would then have 14 credits on your meter.

If you then cashed out, what would the cash value of the ticket be?

At Ceasars properties, it would be $70.

Maybe it's different at Red Rock or Suncoast?... that's why I'm asking.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

If you can use freeplay on E-roulette, bet both red and black with a green hedge and you can easily calculate your formula for guaranteed realized return.
link to original post

I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?

It sounds similar to betting both pass and don't pass in craps with a hedge bet on 12 but there's no positive return possible in that scenario.

If it's different in E-roulette I'd to know what it is?
link to original post

yes on e-roulette but i've forgotten it since my casino stopped allowing freeplay on it.

now you want positive return on freeplay?
the doey/dont craps play and e-roulette formula eliminates variance.
You WILL be getting one of 2 amounts.

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

If you activated/downloaded $35 of freeplay onto a "Bet 10" $5 VP machine, wagered 7 credits on your first hand and made 2 pair, you would then have 14 credits on your meter.

If you then cashed out, what would the cash value of the ticket be?

At Ceasars properties, it would be $70.

Maybe it's different at Red Rock or Suncoast?... that's why I'm asking.
link to original post

Back when I played free play at Caesars, if I did a cash out I would get a ticket equal to the cash winnings. Any remaining free play would remain in the system to be used later.

You could not cash out free play.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

If you activated/downloaded $35 of freeplay onto a "Bet 10" $5 VP machine, wagered 7 credits on your first hand and made 2 pair, you would then have 14 credits on your meter.

If you then cashed out, what would the cash value of the ticket be?

At Ceasars properties, it would be $70.

Maybe it's different at Red Rock or Suncoast?... that's why I'm asking.
link to original post

Back when I played free play at Caesars, if I did a cash out I would get a ticket equal to the cash winnings. Any remaining free play would remain in the system to be used later.

You could not cash out free play.
link to original post

The way it works now is that once you have gambled the free play once, it is no longer freeplay it is cashable credits

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

If you activated/downloaded $35 of freeplay onto a "Bet 10" $5 VP machine, wagered 7 credits on your first hand and made 2 pair, you would then have 14 credits on your meter.

If you then cashed out, what would the cash value of the ticket be?

At Ceasars properties, it would be $70.

Maybe it's different at Red Rock or Suncoast?... that's why I'm asking.
link to original post

Back when I played free play at Caesars, if I did a cash out I would get a ticket equal to the cash winnings. Any remaining free play would remain in the system to be used later.

You could not cash out free play.
link to original post

The way it works now is that once you have gambled the free play once, it is no longer freeplay it is cashable credits
link to original post

That's the way it has always been.
Free play that has not been played remains free play. It cannot be cashed out and remains in the system.

Back to my question:

When you divide $75 of free play at roulette what are the possible payoffs?

Darkoz uses:
$35 black
$35 red
$5 green

I'd like to see the answers. Thank you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

But even if a $35 free play bet could be reused it could not be cashed out. It's free play.

If you activated/downloaded $35 of freeplay onto a "Bet 10" $5 VP machine, wagered 7 credits on your first hand and made 2 pair, you would then have 14 credits on your meter.

If you then cashed out, what would the cash value of the ticket be?

At Ceasars properties, it would be $70.

Maybe it's different at Red Rock or Suncoast?... that's why I'm asking.
link to original post

Back when I played free play at Caesars, if I did a cash out I would get a ticket equal to the cash winnings. Any remaining free play would remain in the system to be used later.

You could not cash out free play.
link to original post

The way it works now is that once you have gambled the free play once, it is no longer freeplay it is cashable credits
link to original post

That's the way it has always been.
Free play that has not been played remains free play. It cannot be cashed out and remains in the system.

Back to my question:

When you divide $75 of free play at roulette what are the possible payoffs?

Darkoz uses:
$35 black
$35 red
$5 green

I'd like to see the answers. Thank you.
link to original post

I'd hope you know the answer.

Quote: AlanMendelson

So again, how do you get $70????
link to original post

The game is funded with restricted credits.
Game results are credited to the player in unrestricted credits.

Red and Black wagers pay 2 for 1.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

So again, how do you get $70????
link to original post

The game is funded with restricted credits.
Game results are credited to the player in unrestricted credits.

Red and Black wagers pay 2 for 1.
link to original post

I'm not a roulette player. But I thought that they (red and black) were even money bets. So a $35 bet on red would win $35. And the way I understood it, you would not keep your original $35 bet because it was free play and kept by the casino.

Pre Covid Red Rock and Suncoast gave table game players free bets. Here's how they worked at both casinos:

At Red Rock I'd get $75. It could not be split.
I'd place the $75 on the Pass.
If it won, I'd be paid $75 and the casino kept the free play voucher.
If the Pass bet lost, the free play voucher lost and the casino kept it.

My question: Is this DIFFERENT from betting Red or Black on Roulette?

Quote: AlanMendelson

My question: Is this DIFFERENT from betting Red or Black on Roulette?
link to original post

Yes. E-roulette is handled under slot machine rules.

Table roulette pays are "to 1". 1 to 1 on even money bets.
E-Roulette pays are "for 1". 2 for 1 on "even money" bets.

I've explained it elsewhere previously. Sorry I can't dig it up right now.
Table games freeplay chips are handled very differently than machine freeplay.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

So again, how do you get $70????
link to original post

The game is funded with restricted credits.
Game results are credited to the player in unrestricted credits.

Red and Black wagers pay 2 for 1.
link to original post

I'm not a roulette player. But I thought that they (red and black) were even money bets. So a $35 bet on red would win $35. And the way I understood it, you would not keep your original $35 bet because it was free play and kept by the casino.

Pre Covid Red Rock and Suncoast gave table game players free bets. Here's how they worked at both casinos:

At Red Rock I'd get $75. It could not be split.
I'd place the $75 on the Pass.
If it won, I'd be paid $75 and the casino kept the free play voucher.
If the Pass bet lost, the free play voucher lost and the casino kept it.

My question: Is this DIFFERENT from betting Red or Black on Roulette?
link to original post

The difference isn't in the game, it's in electronic gaming versus freebet vouchers. All E-games I am aware of you get your freeplay wager returned (now converted into cash) along with the win.


For a $35 winning bet of Red using freeplay, you get handed back $70. $35 the freeplay converted and $35 for your win. In this manner, if freeplay is allowed on E-games, you can guarantee the exact return to within a few dollars assuming you do the hedge bet.

However, most casinos disallow freeplay period from E-games for this very reason. It was more prevalent a few years ago but casinos learned the hard way.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

So again, how do you get $70????
link to original post

The game is funded with restricted credits.
Game results are credited to the player in unrestricted credits.

Red and Black wagers pay 2 for 1.
link to original post

I'm not a roulette player. But I thought that they (red and black) were even money bets. So a $35 bet on red would win $35. And the way I understood it, you would not keep your original $35 bet because it was free play and kept by the casino.

Pre Covid Red Rock and Suncoast gave table game players free bets. Here's how they worked at both casinos:

At Red Rock I'd get $75. It could not be split.
I'd place the $75 on the Pass.
If it won, I'd be paid $75 and the casino kept the free play voucher.
If the Pass bet lost, the free play voucher lost and the casino kept it.

My question: Is this DIFFERENT from betting Red or Black on Roulette?
link to original post

The difference isn't in the game, it's in electronic gaming versus freebet vouchers. All E-games I am aware of you get your freeplay wager returned (now converted into cash) along with the win.


For a $35 winning bet of Red using freeplay, you get handed back $70. $35 the freeplay converted and $35 for your win. In this manner, if freeplay is allowed on E-games, you can guarantee the exact return to within a few dollars assuming you do the hedge bet.

However, most casinos disallow freeplay period from E-games for this very reason. It was more prevalent a few years ago but casinos learned the hard way.
link to original post

Thank you.

darkoz, as I may have said before, I have enjoyed reading your stories, both fact and fiction. (I went back through your threads and found more.) Sorry to hear about the robbery/betrayal and the negative outcome on your first (?) case. I’m glad you haven’t let either one deter you from moving forward!

I look forward to the next installment of GN AC VS. DARKOZ…

[EDIT to correct the order around “vs.”]

Quote: camapl

darkoz, as I may have said before, I have enjoyed reading your stories, both fact and fiction. (I went back through your threads and found more.) Sorry to hear about the robbery/betrayal and the negative outcome on your first (?) case. I’m glad you haven’t let either one deter you from moving forward!

I look forward to the next installment of GN AC VS. DARKOZ…

[EDIT to correct the order around “vs.”]
link to original post

Thanks. I will have the next installment up by tomorrow

Quote: coachbelly

I've witnessed it too many times to count.

So you stand around the VP slots and ogle players for hours on end dropping $5k and losing just $200 "countless times"?(paraphrased) Sounds to me like watching grass grow. Are any of those players women, and does anyone call security or tell you to back off?

Quote: coachbelly

Don't you believe that players can finish ahead for the day playing VP?

Absolutely, but my life does not revolve around watching players "countless times"(paraphrased) vicariously winning at VP.

Quote: coachbelly

You could play $100 per credit and wager $500 per hand...that would take 10 hands to reach 5000 points, in less than 10 minutes.
Or you could play $10 per credit and $50 per hand, to reach 5000 points after 100 hands, in less than an hour.

Quote: tuttigym

Is that your MO. I would almost pay to see you play 10 hands at $500 per. That happens "all the time" and only lose $200? Fat chance

Quote: coachbelly

Those are examples illustrating the time it could take to wager $5K on a VP machine.
You had asked earlier how long that would take.
$500 per hand is not my MO, but I'll occasionally play $50 per hand.

So you have not witnessed your extreme example and what of your results to your $50/hand play? BTW how many hands at $50?

Quote: coachbelly

You don't have to pay (or almost pay) to watch someone play $500 per hand, you just need to spot someone playing a $100 per credit machine.

And you have done that "countless times"?(paraphrased)

tuttigym

Quote: Dieter

I've explained it elsewhere previously. Sorry I can't dig it up right now.
Table games freeplay chips are handled very differently than machine freeplay.
link to original post

I dug it up. See this post.

Restricted credits are freeplay.
Unrestricted credits are cashable.

I still prefer deuces. I'm sure someone could debunk my opinion with math, but my notes say it usually works better for me than JoB or BP, and VBJ is problematic at the properties I visit.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: darkoz

The objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.

To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.

This statement is wonderful in its honesty, but it does not go far enough to offer real clarity. First and foremost, how much does one have to lose? How often? How many cards does one have to have? What does the average offer have to be? How long does it take to fulfill that requirement? and finally, How long before one can expect a net "profit"?

Is this a career choice?

tuttigym
link to original post

Crickets.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: darkoz

The objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.

To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.

This statement is wonderful in its honesty, but it does not go far enough to offer real clarity. First and foremost, how much does one have to lose? How often? How many cards does one have to have? What does the average offer have to be? How long does it take to fulfill that requirement? and finally, How long before one can expect a net "profit"?

Is this a career choice?

tuttigym
link to original post

Crickets.
link to original post

In a movie. Gimme an hour to respond

I can do that.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: darkoz

The objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.

To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.

This statement is wonderful in its honesty, but it does not go far enough to offer real clarity. First and foremost, how much does one have to lose? How often? How many cards does one have to have? What does the average offer have to be? How long does it take to fulfill that requirement? and finally, How long before one can expect a net "profit"?

Is this a career choice?

tuttigym
link to original post

Crickets.
link to original post

How much does one have to lose?

Somewhat irrelevant. It's dependant on too many factors that differ casino to casino. Any exact dollars amount would be misleading and incorrect. There are also AP combinations that can minimize losses. So can't give exact amount.

How often? Probably would give away too much but these days even that differs from casino to casino so can't answer. Sorry.

How many cards does one have to have? Ummm, as many as one needs. Sorry!

What does the average offer have to be? Again it's different per casino. It has to add up to more than your losses. On an extreme example if I lose $1000 and only get two offers for $1000 freeplay, and if I can turn it over at say VBJ, then that's close to $1000 profit. Multiply by twenty cards and that is $20,000 (certainly made within the week. And I never said I make $20,000 every week). Keep in mind that's a rare unusual example.

How long to fulfill the requirement? Clarify please? How long for freeplay to kick in or how long to collect it or how long to earn it?

How long before one can expect a net profit? Again it is different from casino to casino but I personally prefer about one third into a play to be in profit mode. That's the usual time frame. I have had times where I was in profit the first day.

Is this a career choice? Read my thread called Dark Oz history. I have gone over how my AP happened. This isn't my first career. I started off in Hollywood working on major motion pictures but as a technician. Nothing high up on the totem pole.

Quote: tuttigym

So you have not witnessed your extreme example and what of your results to your $50/hand play? BTW how many hands at $50?

I used to play lots of $50 a hand video poker. A typical session for me would be 1000 to 2000 hands per session.

Quote: coachbelly

For this exercise, a win is considered being ahead after wagering $5000...that happens all the time.

Quote: tuttigym

What a remarkable statement. And you KNOW THIS HOW?

Quote: coachbelly

I've witnessed it too many times to count.

Quote: tuttigym

So you stand around the VP slots and ogle players for hours on end dropping $5k and losing just $200 "countless times"?

Your original question (above) was about players being ahead after wagering $5K...not losing.
But no, I don't stand around ogling other players, I've witnessed it countless times sitting down at a machine.

Quote: tuttigym

and what of your results to your $50/hand play? BTW how many hands at $50?

Results close to expectation, over thousands of hands.

I accept your answers in their generalities as well as the cloak of secrecy. But there is one sentence that is puzzling to me. How does one lose $1,000 and "only get two offers for $1,000 free play"? I cannot fathom any casino giving those kinds of offers on a $ for $ basis.

tuttigym

Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

So you have not witnessed your extreme example and what of your results to your $50/hand play? BTW how many hands at $50?

I used to play lots of $50 a hand video poker. A typical session for me would be 1000 to 2000 hands per session.
link to original post

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average? Also, with that play, what kinds of offers did you receive on average?

BTW, obviously, that is way out of my league or frame of reference.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average?

I didn't make that assertion...another member reported a $200 loss as his actual results.

His assertion is that his loss of $200 was a result of bad luck, as the expected loss for a $5K wager was only $100.

Quote: billryan

The club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.

Quote: billryan

If you are playing at $1.00 a hand and you play 1,000 hands, your expected loss on a 98% machine is about $20. It took a bit of bad luck to lose the $200 while obtaining the 5,000 points.

Quote: tuttigym

I accept your answers in their generalities as well as the cloak of secrecy. But there is one sentence that is puzzling to me. How does one lose $1,000 and "only get two offers for $1,000 free play"? I cannot fathom any casino giving those kinds of offers on a $ for $ basis.

tuttigym
link to original post

Different rules for different casinos. I was giving an extreme case.

If you read my thread entitled A NY AP move (I did a few but one of them) I discuss a casino that rewarded their winners. So I purposely WON money to get offers

Read that thread and you will learn that AP techniques don't always mean losing (or winning) as normal players. I showed a win while really having a loss (in order to trick their system into exorbitant comps that made me a winner).

Lots and lots of tricks. Not all available anymore or if available made extremely difficult. But that thread should give you an idea of why it's difficult to answer many questions about earning comps that are posed on here.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

So you have not witnessed your extreme example and what of your results to your $50/hand play? BTW how many hands at $50?

I used to play lots of $50 a hand video poker. A typical session for me would be 1000 to 2000 hands per session.
link to original post

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average? Also, with that play, what kinds of offers did you receive on average?

BTW, obviously, that is way out of my league or frame of reference.

tuttigym
link to original post

Obviously it varied a lot through the years. Through the best years I was getting between $200 and $300 freeplay per hour played.

Quote: kuma

I think what I understand is that you were not trying to intentionally mislead readers, which was what I originally thought. I now see you truly believe short-term actual results hold any kind of meaning whatsoever. My apologies.
link to original post

Polite GREAT response!

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: tuttigym

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average?

I didn't make that assertion...another member reported a $200 loss as his actual results.

His assertion is that his loss of $200 was a result of bad luck, as the expected loss for a $5K wager was only $100.

Quote: billryan

The club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.

Quote: billryan

If you are playing at $1.00 a hand and you play 1,000 hands, your expected loss on a 98% machine is about $20. It took a bit of bad luck to lose the $200 while obtaining the 5,000 points.

link to original post

For me, there is a problem with the semantics often used by various posters when talking about gaming results. There never seems to be the reality of most all forms of gaming when communicating actual occurrence. The focus always seems to be on the EXPECTED rather than the probable or actual. I believe that casinos cannot survive with the so-called "EXPECTED" 1% or 2+% profits proliferated here. The casino business has exploded with operations throughout the states (not all states). Their expenditures and budgets are huge. The competition for patrons is extreme. I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms. Casino exec's crunch the numbers all the time, and it does not seem likely they would allow so many of these very low expectation machines to continue within their operations and offer systems. What I am reading here seems to be misleading simply because so many players that I have witnessed just plain lose.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: tuttigym

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average?

I didn't make that assertion...another member reported a $200 loss as his actual results.

His assertion is that his loss of $200 was a result of bad luck, as the expected loss for a $5K wager was only $100.

Quote: billryan

The club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.

Quote: billryan

If you are playing at $1.00 a hand and you play 1,000 hands, your expected loss on a 98% machine is about $20. It took a bit of bad luck to lose the $200 while obtaining the 5,000 points.

link to original post

For me, there is a problem with the semantics often used by various posters when talking about gaming results. There never seems to be the reality of most all forms of gaming when communicating actual occurrence. The focus always seems to be on the EXPECTED rather than the probable or actual. I believe that casinos cannot survive with the so-called "EXPECTED" 1% or 2+% profits proliferated here. The casino business has exploded with operations throughout the states (not all states). Their expenditures and budgets are huge. The competition for patrons is extreme. I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms. Casino exec's crunch the numbers all the time, and it does not seem likely they would allow so many of these very low expectation machines to continue within their operations and offer systems. What I am reading here seems to be misleading simply because so many players that I have witnessed just plain lose.

tuttigym
link to original post

If I understand payback correctly, it's per machine, not player.

For example, let's say a slot has a 90% payback.

Player A sits down and loses $1000, then leaves.

Now player B sits down and quickly wins $900.

The machine has paid back 90%. But player A has lost big. Player B has had good day. Next time the tables will be reversed

But the machine has returned 90%.

Of course this return may not even be realized for months. For example a game with a progressive worth ten grand will not hit it's true return until that singular hit.

That's the way I understand it to work.

In this manner lots of people lose and a few get lucky.

Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.

I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.

Quote: Dieter

I still prefer deuces. I'm sure someone could debunk my opinion with math, but my notes say it usually works better for me than JoB or BP, and VBJ is problematic at the properties I visit.
link to original post

Why do you prefer deuces to convert freeplay into cash?
Variance of JoB/BP = 20
variance of DW = 25

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Dieter

I still prefer deuces. I'm sure someone could debunk my opinion with math, but my notes say it usually works better for me than JoB or BP, and VBJ is problematic at the properties I visit.
link to original post

Why do you prefer deuces to convert freeplay into cash?
Variance of JoB/BP = 20
variance of DW = 25
link to original post

My notes say it generally works better for me.
Variance is not the enemy. A fickle beast, to be sure, but not the enemy.

Could just be that I find JoB & Co. tedious.

Part thirteen:

To recap, while awaiting trial for defiant trespassing set for April 2019, we have returned to the incidents in Pennsylvania, specifically the Valley Forge in November 2016.

I had set up 27 cards and split them into two groups. One group of thirteen had two cards from the same person and got flagged and by the second day I was caught, backroomed, had to prove to police I had permission from the cardholder to use the cards and was not evicted nor arrested. Basically released and told not to do it again.

If you haven't figured it out yet, the VERY NEXT DAY I returned to the Valley Forge and was doing it again.

But first things first!

This was a big money operation. Maybe not MDawg big but quite large for the average person. I had invested approximately $60,000 in seed money. And I wasn't leaving that behind.

At the very least I was hopeful to recoup my money or minimize my losses before the operation was completely killed. That would depend on how I handled going back inside the Valley Forge and how they handled their investigation.

And make no bones about it, they were going to further investigate. For one thing, they would want to understand where the freeplay originated from. Their first suspicion would probably be an insider employee uploading offers. That of course would be illegal. They would make certain the offers were legit. They would figure out how I obtained the offers and that would probably lead them to my other batch of cards they hadn't yet noticed. They would see the same activities and put it all together. They would move quickly to deactivate those cards perhaps if they saw my continued use.

As I said in the last part, the Valley Forge was now a hotzone and I was at war.

So, just what did they see? Thanks to the Golden Nugget dossier I actually know. The Valley Forge documents were included.

Here is one page which we will return to in another post but I have singled out what freeplay activity they observed on November 6th and 8th, 2016. (Sorry for the sideways image. That's how it was delivered electronically to me.)



Right off the bat you can see some discrepancy. For example on November 8th, eleven cards each with at least $400 freeplay doesn't add up to $4050. The amount of $4430 on the 6th is more proper. The odd $30 probably a one time birthday offer for one of the cardholders.

Casino surveillance is almost always reactive versus proactive. They don't want to be searching for a face amongst the crowd who may show up anytime or not at all so they flag the cards and wait for their use which will trigger an alarm or notification on their consoles.

From the document, we can see they flagged the eleven cards to activate when freeplay was downloaded BUT not when it was inserted into a slot machine nor when freeplay was only activated and not played. Most likely this was again due to reactive thinking. They didn't want to zoom in and check all the machines for activities. Easier to rely on the software. The flag had to notate the amount of the download so it was the download that was flagged. They probably also didn't imagine someone would activate the freeplay and leave it behind for the next day.

As a result, what they did see isn't as interesting as what they didn't see. They didn't see me take freeplay from 14 unflagged cards on November the 7th. They didn't even see me activate the eleven flagged cards on the 7th. And because they were patiently waiting for the download flags to signal, they didn't even notice I was inside the casino on the 7th.

As I mentioned in a prior post, the Golden Nugget really did me a solid when they sent over that dossier.

So, on November 6th I made $4,678.13 (at some point I did some slots obviously for such an amount but primarily I did VBJ. I would get a near 100% return without fear of winning a jackpot on freeplay. Also speed! $50 a hand of VBJ meant I turned freeplay around in eight hands. I'm fast at VBJ. Five minutes per card was pretty much all I needed including download time and switching seats as I never stood at the same seat and swapped cards)

On November 7th I made another $4000+ not recorded by Valley Forge and on November 8th their records show I made $4,198.31.

And with the freeplay being offered five days a week, I pretty much made over ,$4,000 five days a week!

WHOA WHOA WHOA! Calm down! It's hard to understand what you are screaming at through your computer. Now, what did you just say?

Oh, $4,000 five days a week equals $20,000 a week? Yes, that's what I thought you said. It was hard to understand you!

With a $60,000 seed investment, the first three weeks would really be a recoupment period and not profit. The entire play should have lasted eight weeks which would leave the cards drained of offers. And that meant technically I only saw profit of $20,000 for five weeks.

But I always said I make $20,000 a week. But not every week!

Now of course, the Valley Forge was aware of the offers and their being used. I figured I didn't have long before they cancelled the offers. The trick was to grab as much as possible before that happened. Perhaps I might only suffer a small loss or if lucky, break even.

I hoped my daughter and son-in-law could help extend that time as they were unfamiliar faces at the Valley Forge. They had stepped in before under similar circumstances and It made sense as they lived not thirty minutes away.

But my daughter was unreceptive. "Dad, I warned you the Valley Forge was too small!"

I reminded her I had successfully hit them twice before with zero problems.

"Yes but now it's hot. I'm not risking it. I don't want my husband put in harm's way. You say they have on-site police? Hell no, he could get killed!"

I felt that was a bit dramatic. "They will just insist you accompany them to the backroom and phone the people who's cards you use. It's no big deal "

"Dad, that's what they do with you! They see a middle-aged balding and yes, short, non-threatening WHITE MALE. With my husband they will see a young, tall, muscular, threatening, BLACK MALE! Do you know what happens to black men having confrontations with Pennsylvania state troopers?"

And to this day only one member of my team has ever actually been physically beaten caught using player's cards and that was indeed my son-in-law. That doesn't come into this story but it was already a past event in 2016. So my daughter wasn't being totally paranoid.

That left the infamous masks. I had four sitting in my closet from past wars. They were last resort. I had four different personas I could be but really preferred the last purchased mask. These weren't pre-measured. One size fits all. And I kept buying new masks until I found the best fit.

The other masks wouldn't line up perfectly with both my eyes and nose. Having to choose I lined up the eyes leaving my nostrils snug against latex. This had led to some admittedly comical situations like when I sneezed a very healthy dose of snot which having nowhere to go, smooshed between the latex and my skin. But that also doesn't figure in this story.

Now I had a tactical decision to make. I was booked into the hotel of the Valley Forge that evening. Too close to cancel but losing a night didn't matter.

The issue was Valley Forge was in the middle of nowhere and I don't drive. I needed a private place to change into the mask. I sure wasn't wearing it for four hours from New York and I couldn't walk into the casino bathroom and come out with a different face. Not if as I suspected they were going to follow my every move.

But checking into their hotel under my own name? In a hotzone war? It was practically announcing my arrival. Madness.

Now the Valley Forge hotel wasn't the same company. It was a chain hotel at that time connected by a long hallway to the Valley Forge gaming resort. It was unlikely surveillance monitored the hotel like the gaming floor

I took the plunge and decided to check into the hotel in my own name.

Done up in my mask disguise, I walked through the halls connecting the hotel lobby with the gaming area! It was the very next day after I had been caught! The second set of cards had the offers activated and soon to be expired plus the current day of offers. Everything was there, it was all good. I turned over the freeplay as expected.

Now it was just a question of how many days until the so-called banhammer fell. And how it would fall. Would the cards be pin locked one day? Would the offers be taken down?

Would I feel a tap on my shoulder and discover I was surrounded by security and police?

Every morning I checked to see if the offers were still listed on the website. And for that first week there weren't any issues

But I was operating at half steam. Remember I had a whole set of cards confiscated and pin locked. I could bring those players down but those cards might be flagged for tracking purposes. I might make the undetected cards flagged if they observed me in disguise using flagged cards whose pins had been unlocked.

On the other hand, those cards working might be worthless any day. And it was taking me twice as long now to reach my break even point. It was basically a coin flip. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!

The offers were just sitting there and I couldn't access them. It felt like leaving money behind. I decided to unlock the pins.

By the second weekend of November I had brought down the crew. They were warned at the rewards desk that they had been pin locked due to allowing use by another individual. Not to do it again.

Everyone agrees to use their own cards, and then promptly hands them to me anyway. Well not so out in the open, lol. I told them to go gamble that days freeplay, an added bonus for what I had to pay them for coming down. They also took their once weekly free food offer, a $150 voucher

I even joined them for dinner at the Valley Forge restaurant. Usually association with your crew was a no-no but these people were already associated with me. In fact, we were professed buddies. It would have been more suspect if we avoided each other.

Right in the Valley Forge restaurant they handed me their player's cards under the table and I reciprocated with cash payments.

And so I was once again taking all the offers. How long before the Valley Forge had AP fatigue? I didn't know. Each day was an adventure of sorts.

Thanksgiving weekend came and still I activated and played 25 players cards each with $200 daily freeplay double upped to $400 when I took the offers. By this point I was approaching break even on my investment, only a few days off schedule.

My girlfriend joined me that Thanksgiving Friday for the weekend. "Maybe they just don't care! Maybe they moved on?" She surmised.

I assured her that wasn't possible. It was insane. And yet, this operation, this war if you will was the most non-confrontational war I ever experienced.

And then came my worst nightmare under those conditions.

It's funny how what is a disaster for an AP is everyone else's fantasy.

On a lousy $2 slots wager, I nonetheless won a $2000 top award, against all odds jackpot.

I sat there staring at the blue message that read "handpay, call attendant"

Sat there in a latex mask with a face that didn't match the image on my state ID with a player's card not my own on a wager from freeplay in a casino I had already been backroomed in with a warning not to ever multi-card again!

What's an Advantage Player to do?

To be continued

Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.

I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.
link to original post

Tuttigym said slots including VP and VBJ and he is correct.

Darkoz thank you for mentioning the $60,000 of seed money.

Asking how much per card I guess would be too much to ask?

Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.

I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.
link to original post

People are saying that. Many people.......

Quote: AlanMendelson

Darkoz thank you for mentioning the $60,000 of seed money.

Asking how much per card I guess would be too much to ask?
link to original post

Approximately $2000 on average. 27 cards. There were other associated costs such as paying people to get the cards, the aforementioned annual membership which paid for lunch, gas, tolls (no I didn't make card holders take the bus :)

Remember two cards didn't have offers, due to being the same person. I was out the seed money on those cards from the getgo.

OMG..., now we are going to have to read that you need $60,000 in seed money to play these tricks.

Maybe that is better off. Some people just can't handle the truth.