Swing and a Miss!

Introduction

The Deshaun Watson story is, somehow, a story that is not yet over. What remains to be seen is whether or not this is the final chapter of Watson’s career as an NFL player; it would seem that he is being given an opportunity to showcase his talents one more time, and perhaps, enter this season as the Cleveland Browns starting quarterback.

Several years ago, I wrote an article on the NFL teams getting the best, and worst value for their quarterbacks; naturally, I ranked Deshaun Watson #1. However, that was mainly predicated upon the fact that he spent the majority of that season suspended; we had not yet seen him play too many games in a Browns jersey. With that, let’s refresh our memories on the contract and how much the Browns gave up to get him:

#1 Worst Value, DeShaun Watson-Cleveland Browns:

Contract: Five Years, 230M, Guaranteed

2022 Salary: 1.035M (Base), 8.993 (Bonus), 402.5k (Guaranteed)

Mechanism: Trade (Texans)

Browns Get: Deshaun Watson, 2024 6th Round Pick

Texans Get: 2022 1st Round Pick, 2023 & 2024 First Round Picks, 2022 Fourth Round Pick, 2023 Third Round Pick and 2024 Fourth Round Pick

That’s correct-the 230M was fully guaranteed, no ifs, and, buts, bonuses or outs. In addition to the money, the Browns would give up three First Round Draft Picks and three lesser draft picks. Of course, the one game in which Watson appeared (to that point) didn’t look terribly promising, as I remarked:

While the Browns would beat the Texans by a score of 27-14, I think it’s fair to say that Watson, with a stat line of 12-FOR-22, 131 yards, zero touchdowns, once interception and a QB RATE of 53.4, to say the least, did not have a lot to do with that.

Even if Watson looks better the rest of the season, the Browns (despite surprisingly strong play from backup, Jacoby Brissett, are 5-7 and tied with the Steelers for last place in the AFC North. Even if Watson returns to form, the Browns are going to need a heck of a run to come back and win the division, or perhaps, advance to the Wildcard.

In the event that happened, I would still say that Watson provides the least value this season simply because of how many games he spent on suspension. Also, it’s going to be difficult to argue, based on Brissett’s performance, that he’s really done anything in that hypothetical that Brissett wouldn’t have, unless he absolutely lights it up.

That all said, as of the time of this writing, Watson has played one game and was pretty awful, so he’s certainly offered the least value, to this point.

Of course, Deshaun Watson would continue to look awful.

THE REST OF THE BROWNS TENURE (TO DATE)

Swinging over to Pro Football Reference, we can look at Deshaun Watson’s career stats with the Cleveland Browns.

Games	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Yards/Attempt	Comp %	Touchdowns	Ints	QB Rating
19	341	557	3365	6.0	61.2%	19	12	80.7

Needless to say, for what little he has produced, Deshaun Watson has arguably gotten paid the most for production of any QB in NFL History. Let’s take a look:

230/19 = 12.105M/Game

230000000/341 = $674,486.80/Completion

230/19 = 12.105M/Passing TD

Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

Of course, the Browns would acquire Watson after he sat out the full 2021 Season due to not wanting to play for the Houston Texans absent being offered a huge contract. Even ignoring his off-the-field (alleged) antics, I’ve always maintained it was crazy of the Browns to offer a fully guaranteed contract to someone who sat out for an entire season; how could they know (and they obviously didn’t) that there wouldn’t be any rust to shake off?

Watson would also miss eleven games, in 2022, due to suspension and a few others to injury. Speaking of injuries, Watson would miss the majority of 2024, as well as all of 2025, due to an achilles tear. It’s possible that he might’ve made it in for a few games late last year, but a second tear that took place in January of 2025 put the kibosh on that.

Given all of that, how could Deshaun Watson even be a consideration for the Cleveland Browns going into 2026? He’s been injured and/or suspended for nearly half of his tenure with the organization, his production has been putrid when he has played; with a 9-10 record, even when he’s on the field, he isn’t really winning. Granted, the Browns are 26-42 (17-32 without Watson) during those four seasons, so he’s at least not actively making them worse when he’s out there. Still, you’d think it would be time to move on from him.

WATSON IN 2026

Well, they tried to move on from him.

In addition to picking up Kenny Pickett (for about ten minutes), the Browns ran it back with Joe Flacco, who entered the 2025 campaign as the starter; they also drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. The latter two didn’t look terribly great last year, so Watson finds himself in a QB competition (that, by all reports, he’s winning slightly) against Shedeur Sanders.

I suppose it’s fair to say that the Browns didn’t try that hard to move on from Watson, but there’s only so much they can do when so much of their salary cap is devoted to their 2021 prize. Also, the organization has a tremendous amount of faith in Watson to improve his health and, perhaps, be the comeback player of the year for this NFL Season-just look at what owner, Jimmy Haslam, has to say about him:

““We took a big swing and miss with Deshaun," Jimmy Haslam told reporters, via Cleveland.com. "We thought we had the quarterback, we didn't and we gave up a lot of draft picks to get him. So we've got to dig ourselves out of that hole. (It) was an entire organization decision and it ends with Dee and I, so hold us accountable.””

Oh. What a ringing endorsement!

The fact remains that, at least for this year, The Mistake By The Lake is stuck with Watson and might as well try to do something with him. It’s tough to say whether or not Watson has any real plans to continue in the NFL after this season (first, someone would have to want him; second, regardless what happens this season, he’ll have to be willing to take a lot less money), but it makes sense for Cleveland to at least try to salvage something in exchange for a half decade of disaster and 230M dollars.

Actually, more than a half decade of disaster if we consult Spottrac; the thing about NFL Football is that you need to have several players besides your quarterback, and the Browns weren’t really going to be able to do that as a result of the financial predicament that they put themselves in with Watson.

With that, the Browns have added some void years to Watson’s contract so they could kick the cap hit down the road a bit; in addition to some substantial dead cap over the next two seasons, the Browns will owe Watson close to another ninety million dollars over the course of the next four seasons-when he could be playing in another jersey.

That is, unless things work out and the Browns would like to retain him as starter. In theory, the Browns might be able to restructure his current contract such as to balance out the cap hit over time, rather than taking huge hits the next two years. Naturally, Watson isn’t going to take less money than he is already guaranteed, but the Browns could simply supplement what he is already guaranteed with the money that he could (if any) expect to get as a free agent, which he’s slated to be, going into the 2027 NFL Season.

In the meantime, Watson finds himself in a QB competition with Shaadeur Sanders, whose 2025 campaign looked like this:

Games	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Yards/Attempt	Comp %	Touchdowns	Ints	QB Rating
8	120	212	1400	6.6	56.6%	7	10	68.1

With occasional flashes of brilliance, Sanders was mostly putrid, though he was putrid in a more dynamic way than Watson has been. Most of Watson’s career with the Browns has consisted of him throwing passes behind the sticks, hence Sanders’ superior yards/attempt despite being worse in every other metric.

According to former QB Dan Orlovsky, Watson emerged from Cleveland’s 34-10 preseason drubbing at the hands of the Bears the clear frontrunner:

“After preseason Week 1, it’s not close the competition, and I’ve been pumping Shedeur to be the guy,” Orlovsky said on ESPN Monday morning. “I thought Deshaun played faster, he saw it cleaner, the ball jumped off his hand a bit more.”

“But if you just looked at the snaps and the body of work, Deshaun was clearly better in the game,” Orlovsky added. “Even though I’ve been sitting here pounding the table to start Shedeur because it makes more sense to start Shedeur, I did not find after preseason Week 1 that it was all that close.”

According to Orlovsky, Watson is the clear winner of the QB competition, thus far; it makes one wonder what sort of unbelievable stat line would lead to this outcome.

Watson went 11-for-15 for 126 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions and a fumble. Granted, that would probably have been one of Watson’s better performances, in a Browns uniform, had it taken place during a regular season game; that’s especially evident given that it would result in a QB Rating of 98.19, which is substantially better than average for Watson.

Also owing, at least indirectly, to the Deshaun Watson signing is the fact that Kevin Stefanksi is out and Todd Monken is in as the Head Coach for the organization. You’ll recall that Stefanski is not only a two-time coach of the year, but somehow, also willed the Browns to the Playoffs on two occasions in his short tenure. It doesn’t seem that Haslam totally meant it when he said the buck stops with him on the swing and miss; I’m certain, especially now, Stefanski would have been much happier to retain the services of Baker Mayfield.

Sanders will be given an opportunity to make a better impression as it has been announced that he will start the Browns’ next preseason game, which comes against the Buffalo Bills on August 22nd.

BEYOND 2026?

Earlier in the article, I mentioned that Watson is going to continue to punish the Browns by way of cap hit after this season, as well as the money they’re going to continue to pay him. There may be room to do further structuring there, but all indications are that Deshaun Watson does not feature in the Browns’ long-term plan:

"I do not think there's a world in which Watson plays well enough this season to convince the Browns to re-sign him and move forward with him as their franchise QB of the future," ESPN NFL insider Dan Graziano wrote for an article published on Tuesday. "He turns 31 in September. The contract has been a complete catastrophe in every possible way. And the team's owner has admitted as much publicly."

For my part, I don’t think there’s a world where anyone should say, ‘Never.’ Certainly, if Deshaun Watson comes out and throws for over 4,000 yards, has a TD:INT ratio of something like 3:1 and throws for 30+ Touchdowns…it’s difficult to imagine that the Browns would not consider bringing him back; of course, I don’t think anyone, least of all anyone in the Browns’ front offices, thinks that’s going to happen.

Here’s an article for those of you interested in the, ‘What Ifs,’ on the other side of the argument.

Again, I think it comes down to how Watson plays, assuming he wins the starting job in the first place. Another thing that will need to transpire is for Watson to manage to avoid injury; in addition to tearing his achilles twice (thus, there’s no world where he’s anywhere near as mobile as he used to be), he also suffered some shoulder issues during the early part of his relationship with the Browns.

In the meantime, #4 is certainly going to want to go out there and ball out; even if he isn’t going to have a future with the Browns’ organization, he’s still auditioning for a contract elsewhere, unless he decides to just hang up the cleats…which seems equally possible, especially if he has a horrendous season or suffers another injury.

CONCLUSION

In spite of everything that has happened, and his poor play on the field…during those rare weeks that he’s even healthy enough to play…the story of Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns is not yet over, but it seems to be entering its final chapter.

For my part, I feel vindicated in calling Watson’s contract (not to mention everything the Browns traded to get rights to him) the single worst decision in the history of the entire NFL; naturally, that could happen to no team other than the Browns.

In terms of how I expect Watson to perform this year, I think that, if he can avoid injury, it’s largely going to be more of the same, but maybe with a slightly better QB Rating by the end of it. I would expect Watson (and the team’s) goal for him to be sticking to safe throws to keep the sticks moving and to minimize mistakes and turnovers.

If one thing could bode poorly for Watson, it’s the fact that he can’t have the sort of mobility that he once did and, in 2025, the Browns were the seventh-worst team (51) for sacks allowed. There’s a pretty good chance they’re going to have issues with keeping the #4 clean.