richodude
richodude
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September 24th, 2022 at 12:33:58 AM permalink
Been informed that casino owners likely scour these sites to catch people like me :/ story some other time then

long story short I won $3830 in 32.5 hours off of a $300 bankroll. Got my first bit of heat today and haven't been backed off yet! I hope the streak continues and we can get a full story when I am found out. I don't live next to many casinos so I'd hate to get backed of from an AP forum
Last edited by: richodude on Sep 24, 2022
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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richodude
September 24th, 2022 at 12:59:52 AM permalink
If all the info in your post is accurate I would delete it.
It sounds like you’re at a tiny place and if they really call you what you said. You just outed yourself
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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September 24th, 2022 at 5:38:08 AM permalink
You got to 10X your buy-in. Coingratulations. You've got 12 $300 buy-ins now. How will you get to $3,000 again?
aceside
aceside
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September 24th, 2022 at 6:29:59 AM permalink
Quote: richodude

Been informed that casino owners likely scour these sites to catch people like me :/ story some other time then

long story short I won $3830 in 32.5 hours off of a $300 bankroll. Got my first bit of heat today and haven't been backed off yet! I hope the streak continues and we can get a full story when I am found out. I don't live next to many casinos so I'd hate to get backed of from an AP forum
link to original post


Congratulations! I started to play blackjack several years ago without knowing the existence of basic strategy, but I won a total of $3000 in six sessions. At that time, I thought I was talented in this game and thus studied basic strategy and card counting; however, I lost all my wins in three card counting sessions.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 24th, 2022 at 1:08:21 PM permalink
Could be accomplished in a few minutes

Keep going all in and win your first three bets. Get a couple blackjacks
It’s all about making that GTA
aceside
aceside
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September 25th, 2022 at 5:28:44 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Could be accomplished in a few minutes

Keep going all in and win your first three bets. Get a couple blackjacks
link to original post


No way is this easy. Let me estimate how long it takes.

The odds of getting 3 non-blackjack wins and then 2 blackjack wins in this order is
38% x 38% x 38% x 4.5% x 4.5% =0.011%.
This is equivalent to 45,000 hands of playing. If a person plays 400 hands a day, he/she needs to play 112 days to encounter this situation.

By the way, I only encountered one person getting 5 blackjacks in a row in the last several years.
Last edited by: aceside on Sep 25, 2022
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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camapl
September 25th, 2022 at 5:42:58 AM permalink
Quote: aceside

By the way, I only encountered one person getting 5 blackjacks in a row in the last several years.
link to original post



The last person I saw get 3 naturals in a row off the top of the shoe was dealing.

I don't play there any more.
May the cards fall in your favor.
camapl
camapl
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September 25th, 2022 at 12:10:47 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

Quote: Ace2

Could be accomplished in a few minutes

Keep going all in and win your first three bets. Get a couple blackjacks
link to original post


No way is this easy. Let me estimate how long it takes.

The odds of getting 3 non-blackjack wins and then 2 blackjack wins in this order is
38% x 38% x 38% x 4.5% x 4.5% =0.011%.
This is equivalent to 45,000 hands of playing. If a person plays 400 hands a day, he/she needs to play 112 days to encounter this situation.

By the way, I only encountered one person getting 5 blackjacks in a row in the last several years.
link to original post



I don’t think your bankroll would care about the order… Multiply the probability (divide the frequency) by 10.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
aceside
aceside
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September 25th, 2022 at 12:41:47 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

Quote: aceside

Quote: Ace2

Could be accomplished in a few minutes

Keep going all in and win your first three bets. Get a couple blackjacks
link to original post


No way is this easy. Let me estimate how long it takes.

The odds of getting 3 non-blackjack wins and then 2 blackjack wins in this order is
38% x 38% x 38% x 4.5% x 4.5% =0.011%.
This is equivalent to 45,000 hands of playing. If a person plays 400 hands a day, he/she needs to play 112 days to encounter this situation.

By the way, I only encountered one person getting 5 blackjacks in a row in the last several years.
link to original post



I don’t think your bankroll would care about the order… Multiply the probability (divide the frequency) by 10.
link to original post


Do you mean multiplying the probability by a factor of C(5,2)=10? I presented a rough estimate. Not very sure about this part.
Ace2
Ace2
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rawtuff
September 25th, 2022 at 1:48:46 PM permalink
Going all in, 3 consecutive blackjacks would multiply your $300 bankroll by 2.5^3 to $4,687.50

2 blackjacks and one regular win would also meet your goal

Three consecutive blackjacks (about 1 in 9,000 chance) is not that rare. It will definitely happen to regular players…I’ve gotten it before. 2 blackjacks and 1 regular win would be about a 1 in 350 chance…should happen about every six hours assuming 60 hands per hour

I actually got 18 consecutive blackjacks once but never more than that
It’s all about making that GTA
IWannaBeAP
IWannaBeAP
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September 25th, 2022 at 8:15:19 PM permalink
Congratulations!

Truth be told, I think the biggest make or break for a successful card counter is their luck in their initial sessions.

I'm fortunate that it went well for me.

Almost nobody has the "mental discipline" to see things only in terms of EV in the very beginning, or even have a solid understanding of what EV is. It's so easy to get demoralized after a big loss in the very beginning and think this isn't a legitimate money making method. Mental discipline is trained over time. Unless that person came from a previous environment that has already trained mental discipline and EV such as options trading.

Alas I'm fortunate enough for that not to be the case, and you as well.

I'm lucky that because of my good luck in my initial card counting session, it has trained me to see world in terms of EV. The mental discipline I got from blackjack trained me to be tough and realistic when bad life situations or social situations happen. I now realize in some of those life situations, I did everything right, it was +EV, and variance simply got me, as it should. I make much better decisions now and other people can't even figure out why I've improved at my decision making skills! "Doing the right thing" now means something completely different to me than what I previously thought.

Moment of silence for our potential card counting comrades that never made it past their first week though.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 9:02:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

(snip)
I actually got 18 consecutive blackjacks once but never more than that
link to original post


Maybe it happened, maybe it didn't, : )
But, I would say it probably happened given that I believe in the "Multi-verse" and that the planet we live on is "Earth - Six-Sixty-Two-Sextillion".
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