Bandit100
Posted by Bandit100
Jul 10, 2012

General Odds

I worked out a spreadsheet craps program, and the variability is highest for the 7's and the lowest for the 12's.


"Twenty-Five losses in a row makes the Darkside glow."

Comments

buzzpaff
buzzpaff Jul 10, 2012

You needed a spread sheet for that ??

mustangsally
mustangsally Jul 10, 2012

Swell!

I think it is lowest for the 2 and the 12.



my spreadsheet may be different from yours :)

FinsRule
FinsRule Jul 11, 2012

I would think it would be reverse.



If you rolled the dice 72 times, you'd expect 12 7's, and 2 12's.



But you're probably not going to get that. Maybe you'll get 14 7's and 1 12. Or 10 7's and 3 12's. Anyway, the difference between 1 - 12 and 2 - 12 is 100%. The difference between 10 7's and 12 7's is 16%. Now, you'll get exactly 2 - 12's more often than exactly 12 7's, so it balances out probably.



I'm just saying, the less frequent something occurs should have higher variability? Right?

Bandit100
Bandit100 Jul 11, 2012

The odds of rolling a seven from 360 throws of the dice is all over the place—ranging from 10 percent to 22 percent. At ten percent, you have a pretty hot table for the Pass Line Bettor. The high variability of throwing a seven favors the Don't Pass Line bettor during a short period of time. A typical game should not last more than 20 hands at any particular table. 5/30 or 10/60 is the ticket price for success.

Bandit100
Bandit100 Jul 11, 2012

I am merely pointing out that the Casino odds of making a point on a four or a ten is more likely to be 2.4: 1 against the Pass Line shooter. The high variability of the eights and the sixes shifts the odds upward about 1-2 percent points in favor of the Don't Pass Line bettor. Laying odds on a Don't Pass line bet takes away all of the odds that the casino has against the bettor.

FinsRule
FinsRule Jul 11, 2012

I have no idea what you are talking about

mustangsally
mustangsally Jul 11, 2012

"The odds of rolling a seven from 360 throws of the dice is all over the place—ranging from 10 percent to 22 percent."

This is not very good basic probability. They are not all over the place.

The distribution is normal.



The EV of 360 rolls for a 7 = (1/6)*360

N*P



The variance is just N*P*(1-P)

the standard deviation is just the square root

7.0711



The SD as a percentage would then be 1.964194%

3SD range +/-

10.77 to 22.56



There are 4 SD ranges as well

and 5SD ranges as well.



I think the trick is knowing what the next 360 rolls will bring.

That process to predict and bet on the prediction is called Gambling.



Your

"The high variability of the eights and the sixes shifts the odds upward about 1-2 percent points in favor of the Don't Pass Line bettor.



Laying odds on a Don't Pass line bet takes away all of the odds that the casino has against the bettor."




Both statements are false.

Your spreadsheet must have errors in it.



I get way different results as does my boy friend as well.



Sally



Time to post in the forum your ideas so we can see who is correct and where any errors are.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Jul 12, 2012

Hopefully this person just goes away. Instead of taking time to answer, he is copying/pasting something. The evidence for that is formatting error showing up....



He plans to sell some phoney baloney system or something.