jdubvegas33
jdubvegas33
Joined: Dec 15, 2009
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December 15th, 2009 at 7:13:15 PM permalink
I see posted odds and house edge for craps and the odds of making 1-6 different points on the fire bet. With Crapless Craps having 10 different points can anyone answer what the probability and house edge would be on a firebet that would be on such a game that involves making 1-10 different points?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 16th, 2009 at 5:08:07 AM permalink
I wouldn't know how to calculate it. Heck I don't even know how they calculated the regular Fire Bet odds.

But it's a moot point. There are no Crapless tables that offer the Fire Bet.


"Fire Bet" is a Trademark, owned by HopBet, Inc. www.hopbet.com

The first sentence on their website says it all:
Quote:

A “FIRE BET” is a patented side wager that can be incorporated into any standard Dice game.

Crapless is not standard.


There's only one thing I'd like to know, which is not addressed anywhere on their website: With a company name like that, are they also the inventors of the Hop Bet?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
miplet
miplet
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December 16th, 2009 at 4:40:30 PM permalink
I did a quick sim 20 million round on this. All 10 points never was made
Points MadeProbability
00.63213425
10.24602000
20.08627125
30.02667240
40.00706125
50.00153045
60.00027080
70.00003600
80.00000335
90.00000025
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jdubvegas33
jdubvegas33
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December 20th, 2009 at 7:53:30 PM permalink
thank you. I actually know the guy who invented the fire bet here in Michigan..
jdubvegas33
jdubvegas33
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December 20th, 2009 at 7:56:47 PM permalink
How do you do this simulation? Would you say your info is accurate enough to determine a house edge on this?>
miplet
miplet
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December 21st, 2009 at 6:49:55 AM permalink
Quote: jdubvegas33

How do you do this simulation? Would you say your info is accurate enough to determine a house edge on this?>


I used php. My method would not be accurate enough. Infact just looking at it I think it sucks. I'll work on an analysis in excel to get a more accurate result. Making 0 points is 0.63229437229437. Prelimanary results for 1 point is: 0.24599013126363 and 2: 0.081294932809727, but I need to check for typos and brainos :+)
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boymimbo
boymimbo
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December 21st, 2009 at 7:03:18 AM permalink
Calculating the theoretical HA in this game would be interesting. You would think that the HA would be higher (assuming the theoretical payout of 25 / 250 / 999 to 1 for 4, 5, and 6 points) but there is an offset because it's easier to get 4 different points when there are 10 points on the board.

I am sure this is easy enough to calculate...
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 21st, 2009 at 8:59:05 AM permalink
Quote: jdubvegas33

thank you. I actually know the guy who invented the fire bet here in Michigan..

Really? According to their web site, the inventor lives in Las Vegas. Maybe he moved.


But if you know him, maybe you know, or can get, the answer to my other question:
Quote: DJTeddyBear

There's only one thing I'd like to know, which is not addressed anywhere on their website: With a company name like "Hopbet Inc.", are they also the inventors of the Hop Bet?

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
miplet
miplet
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February 24th, 2010 at 1:54:10 AM permalink
Ok I finaly finished my analysis. It doesn't add up to 1 due to rounding.
Points MadeProbability
00.6322944
10.2459901
20.0861934
30.0266229
40.0070513
50.0015445
60.0002665
70.0000339
80.0000051
90.0000005

Edit on 7/13/14 to add:
Just in case someone stumbles upon this here is a correct table:

PointsProbabilityPaysReturn
00.63229437229-1-0.6322943723
10.24599013126-1-0.2459901313
20.08619336014-1-0.08619336014
30.02662294319-1-0.02662294319
40.00705126058240.169230254
50.001544488242490.3845775707
60.000266537619990.2662710757
70.000033885969990.03385207888
80.000002878359990.002875469518
90.000000139469990.0001393238923
100.000000002909990.000002896973995
1.00000000000-0.1341521372



spreadsheet
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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June 15th, 2021 at 11:35:03 AM permalink
Deleted. Posted in Easy Math Puzzles thread
It’s all about making that GTA

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