Number of Craps Rolls per turn

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: tuttigym

The shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?

tuttigym
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In that case, it depends on what the point was:

5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)

5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)

5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)

11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)

11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)

11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
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THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU.

Just so I am clear, if the point is 4/10, there is a 68% chance that a 7 out will occur within the next 5 rolls before a point conversion? 5/9 = 71%; 6/8 = 74%? Not criticizing here but to my logical mind that seems upside down because the 6/8 would be converted easier than the 4/10.
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No. There is a 68% chance that a 7 out will occur within the next five rolls if you make the assumption that you will not make the point. You specifically said to ignore the cases where the point was made.

If you want the probability of sevening out within 5 or 7 rolls without making the point first:

5 rolls, point 4/10: 781 / 1536 (0.508464)

5 rolls, point 5/9: 303,655 / 629,856 (0.482102)

5 rolls, point 6/8: 4,609,141 / 10,077,696 (0.457361)

11 rolls, point 4/10: 4,017,157 / 6,291,456 (0.638510)

11 rolls, point 5/9: 12,495,249,937,039 / 21,422,803,359,744 (0.583269)

11 rolls, point 6/8: 11,748,865,277,386,501 / 21,936,950,640,377,856 (0.535574)
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Right this was exactly what I wanted him to clarify also. Funny he clarified it in the opposite way he meant it!

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: ThatDonGuy

it depends on what the point was:

5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)................. 1 in 1.4667

5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438) ............... 1 in 1.4076

5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030) .............. 1 in 1.3531

additions mine

you could say the 7-out happens not quite 2 out of 3 times on average, assuming not resolved otherwise, with point of 6/8 especially lower than 2 out of 3

Quote:

11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957) .................... 1 in 1.0661

11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)........... 1 in 1.0478

11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)......... 1 in 1.0338

additions mine again

for 11 rolls, you can say there is a 7-out almost every time, on average, assuming it hasn't resolved otherwise

I can't verify the math but I thought you might be stumped by 0.967285 etc.

Once you decide that 'almost every time' is just the ticket, you'll get a fresh reminder that nothing stops it from resolving the other way. And, for a real stumper, once you decide that 11 rolls is for you, the 7-out just as easily could occur instantly as on the 11th roll

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THANK YOU og for the additions. Please indulge me, does the (0.967285) actually convert to about 97% odds that the 7 out will occur before the point conversion similarly noting the other decimal examples? And yes, I am aware that a variance beyond 11 dice rolls can and does happen. So, thanks for that reminder.

tuttigym
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yes, but chances that there will be a 7-out if it doesn't resolve otherwise , was the parameter, not that "the 7 out will occur before the point conversion". And not that I can confirm the math, I find it hard math to do. Don has done other such and not been called out , is all I can say

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: ThatDonGuy

it depends on what the point was:

5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)................. 1 in 1.4667

5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438) ............... 1 in 1.4076

5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030) .............. 1 in 1.3531

additions mine

you could say the 7-out happens not quite 2 out of 3 times on average, assuming not resolved otherwise, with point of 6/8 especially lower than 2 out of 3

Quote:

11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957) .................... 1 in 1.0661

11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)........... 1 in 1.0478

11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)......... 1 in 1.0338

additions mine again

for 11 rolls, you can say there is a 7-out almost every time, on average, assuming it hasn't resolved otherwise

I can't verify the math but I thought you might be stumped by 0.967285 etc.

Once you decide that 'almost every time' is just the ticket, you'll get a fresh reminder that nothing stops it from resolving the other way. And, for a real stumper, once you decide that 11 rolls is for you, the 7-out just as easily could occur instantly as on the 11th roll

link to original post

link to original post

THANK YOU og for the additions. Please indulge me, does the (0.967285) actually convert to about 97% odds that the 7 out will occur before the point conversion similarly noting the other decimal examples? And yes, I am aware that a variance beyond 11 dice rolls can and does happen. So, thanks for that reminder.

tuttigym
link to original post

yes, but chances that there will be a 7-out if it doesn't resolve otherwise , was the parameter, not that "the 7 out will occur before the point conversion". And not that I can confirm the math, I find it hard math to do. Don has done other such and not been called out , is all I can say
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Quote: odiousgambit

yes, but chances that there will be a 7-out if it doesn't resolve otherwise , was the parameter, not that "the 7 out will occur before the point conversion". And not that I can confirm the math, I find it hard math to do. Don has done other such and not been called out , is all I can say
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I'm still not sure what's being asked.

Is it asking for the probability that you seven out within 5 rolls, or the conditional probability that you seven out within 5 rolls given that you don't make the point?

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: odiousgambit

yes, but chances that there will be a 7-out if it doesn't resolve otherwise , was the parameter, not that "the 7 out will occur before the point conversion". And not that I can confirm the math, I find it hard math to do. Don has done other such and not been called out , is all I can say
link to original post

link to original post

I'm still not sure what's being asked.

Is it asking for the probability that you seven or within 5 rolls, or the conditional probability that you seven out within 5 rolls given that you don't make the point?
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He asked for the latter then, when he got the answer, asserted it was the former. I didn’t follow it.

Quote: unJon

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: odiousgambit

yes, but chances that there will be a 7-out if it doesn't resolve otherwise , was the parameter, not that "the 7 out will occur before the point conversion". And not that I can confirm the math, I find it hard math to do. Don has done other such and not been called out , is all I can say
link to original post

link to original post

I'm still not sure what's being asked.

Is it asking for the probability that you seven or within 5 rolls, or the conditional probability that you seven out within 5 rolls given that you don't make the point?
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He asked for the latter then, when he got the answer, asserted it was the former. I didn’t follow it.
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Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up. Here’s a video that may help some with dealing with future posts of his.

https://youtu.be/2SjFHx0wbFM?si=z1DwQkDYpJJvLUpQ

Quote: camapl

Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up.
link to original post

I disagree. I think he meant to ask about the probability of sevening out within 5 (or 11) rolls without making the point first, but just worded it badly.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: camapl

Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up.
link to original post

I disagree. I think he meant to ask about the probability of sevening out within 5 (or 11) rolls without making the point first, but just worded it badly.
link to original post

You are correct. I thought the question was straight forward and did not anticipate the confusion that followed, as there was no context, and for that I APOLOGIZE.

CONTEXT: Hopping the 7

I believe that the Achilles Heel of the game of craps is the Hop 7. I have posted before that Hopping the 7 is a 5 ROLL BET not a 1 roll sucker bet as most believe plus it is among the cheapest wagers in the casino at $3.00.
Example: 5 rolls @ $3 = $15 a 7 out on the 5th roll gets the player $16 or a $1.00 net win.

The math above produced by ThatDonGuy shows that depending on the point established, the ODDS of a 7 out is approximately 70% in favor of the player within that 5 roll window. I don't know of ANY wager in the casino that affords a player 70% odds of winning a single bet. Of course, there is that 30% area where the point is converted or where the hand continues without either event happening. At that point, one could Martingale the Hop 7 where the ODDS of winning increase to up to approximately 95% of a 7 out (unless there is a point conversion) based on the math of ThatDonGuy.

There are drawbacks. I am well aware. I do not recommend playing this at a live table because the pace of play would create some amount of chaos with a player throwing chips at the stickman plus other distractions. This method should be played at a bubble craps machine so that the player can place the wagers at his leisure prior to rolling the dice, so he might consider other options of play within any given hand.

I practice every day with several different simulators to refine and deal with the obstacles that occur.

I have started playing for real over the last 2 months and am up $600+ which includes one losing session of $500.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: camapl

Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up.
link to original post

I disagree. I think he meant to ask about the probability of sevening out within 5 (or 11) rolls without making the point first, but just worded it badly.
link to original post

You are correct. I thought the question was straight forward and did not anticipate the confusion that followed, as there was no context, and for that I APOLOGIZE.

CONTEXT: Hopping the 7

I believe that the Achilles Heel of the game of craps is the Hop 7. I have posted before that Hopping the 7 is a 5 ROLL BET not a 1 roll sucker bet as most believe plus it is among the cheapest wagers in the casino at $3.00.
Example: 5 rolls @ $3 = $15 a 7 out on the 5th roll gets the player $16 or a $1.00 net win.

The math above produced by ThatDonGuy shows that depending on the point established, the ODDS of a 7 out is approximately 70% in favor of the player within that 5 roll window. I don't know of ANY wager in the casino that affords a player 70% odds of winning a single bet. Of course, there is that 30% area where the point is converted or where the hand continues without either event happening. At that point, one could Martingale the Hop 7 where the ODDS of winning increase to up to approximately 95% of a 7 out (unless there is a point conversion) based on the math of ThatDonGuy.

There are drawbacks. I am well aware. I do not recommend playing this at a live table because the pace of play would create some amount of chaos with a player throwing chips at the stickman plus other distractions. This method should be played at a bubble craps machine so that the player can place the wagers at his leisure prior to rolling the dice, so he might consider other options of play within any given hand.

I practice every day with several different simulators to refine and deal with the obstacles that occur.

I have started playing for real over the last 2 months and am up $600+ which includes one losing session of $500.

tuttigym
link to original post

I assure you that his math does not show that making a -EV bet favors the player.

Congratulations on running good for 2 months. That's irrelevant to the discussion though.

I'd hop 7's at a table if I was shooting and setting for 7's on the come-out rolls. I'd throw in a lay 9 for $31 too.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: camapl

Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up.
link to original post

I disagree. I think he meant to ask about the probability of sevening out within 5 (or 11) rolls without making the point first, but just worded it badly.
link to original post

You are correct. I thought the question was straight forward and did not anticipate the confusion that followed, as there was no context, and for that I APOLOGIZE.

CONTEXT: Hopping the 7

I believe that the Achilles Heel of the game of craps is the Hop 7. I have posted before that Hopping the 7 is a 5 ROLL BET not a 1 roll sucker bet as most believe plus it is among the cheapest wagers in the casino at $3.00.
Example: 5 rolls @ $3 = $15 a 7 out on the 5th roll gets the player $16 or a $1.00 net win.

The math above produced by ThatDonGuy shows that depending on the point established, the ODDS of a 7 out is approximately 70% in favor of the player within that 5 roll window. I don't know of ANY wager in the casino that affords a player 70% odds of winning a single bet. Of course, there is that 30% area where the point is converted or where the hand continues without either event happening. At that point, one could Martingale the Hop 7 where the ODDS of winning increase to up to approximately 95% of a 7 out (unless there is a point conversion) based on the math of ThatDonGuy.

There are drawbacks. I am well aware. I do not recommend playing this at a live table because the pace of play would create some amount of chaos with a player throwing chips at the stickman plus other distractions. This method should be played at a bubble craps machine so that the player can place the wagers at his leisure prior to rolling the dice, so he might consider other options of play within any given hand.

I practice every day with several different simulators to refine and deal with the obstacles that occur.

I have started playing for real over the last 2 months and am up $600+ which includes one losing session of $500.

tuttigym
link to original post

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.

Quote: camapl

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.
link to original post

Just because someone is trying to come up with a betting system to profit at a -EV game doesn't mean they are trolling. They are just wrong. But a lot of people truly believe this.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: camapl

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.
link to original post

Just because someone is trying to come up with a betting system to profit at a -EV game doesn't mean they are trolling. They are just wrong. But a lot of people truly believe this.
link to original post

As an "establishment" player, it seems that you do not have the ability to think "outside the box" or ask questions that might lead to some kind of enlightenment. ThatDonGuy just provided irrefutable math to your -EV crap. Why not show some stones and get on your computer with a great simulator like WinCraps and see if it works? Or you could stay in your "establishment" rut and continue to lose at the tables. Oh, BTW, one doesn't use this same method for every hand played because gambling does not allow the same repetitive play on a random game of chance.

You know, I feel pretty confident that the Wizard with all of his incredible math and craps strategy knowledge never explored the possibilities I have showed above but might actually take a look.

tuttigym

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: camapl

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.
link to original post

Just because someone is trying to come up with a betting system to profit at a -EV game doesn't mean they are trolling. They are just wrong. But a lot of people truly believe this.
link to original post

It is NOT a "betting system." It allows a player the option throughout to deviate and possibly take advantage of the positive ODDS posted above that can give real advantages of winning to a certainty of the game 7OUT.

p.s. Hey, SkinnyTony, I will bet that you had NO idea that the Hop 7 was a FIVE (5) ROLL BET like the vast majority of "establishment" players including John Patrick one of your heroes?

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: camapl

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.
link to original post

Just because someone is trying to come up with a betting system to profit at a -EV game doesn't mean they are trolling. They are just wrong. But a lot of people truly believe this.
link to original post

It is NOT a "betting system." It allows a player the option throughout to deviate and possibly take advantage of the positive ODDS posted above that can give real advantages of winning to a certainty of the game 7OUT.

p.s. Hey, SkinnyTony, I will bet that you had NO idea that the Hop 7 was a FIVE (5) ROLL BET like the vast majority of "establishment" players including John Patrick one of your heroes?

tuttigym
link to original post

No clue who John Patrick is. Also no clue why you keep capitalizing "odds". And no clue what you mean by "positive odds". So overall there's a lot of confusion here.

You said above that you don't understand math and you find it confusing, yet you insist that your math is right. So, good luck! Casinos are built on beliefs like this.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: camapl

Clearly, I was wrong. I stand corrected.
link to original post

Just because someone is trying to come up with a betting system to profit at a -EV game doesn't mean they are trolling. They are just wrong. But a lot of people truly believe this.
link to original post

It is NOT a "betting system." It allows a player the option throughout to deviate and possibly take advantage of the positive ODDS posted above that can give real advantages of winning to a certainty of the game 7OUT.

p.s. Hey, SkinnyTony, I will bet that you had NO idea that the Hop 7 was a FIVE (5) ROLL BET like the vast majority of "establishment" players including John Patrick one of your heroes?

tuttigym
link to original post

No clue who John Patrick is. Also no clue why you keep capitalizing "odds". And no clue what you mean by "positive odds". So overall there's a lot of confusion here.

You said above that you don't understand math and you find it confusing, yet you insist that your math is right. So, good luck! Casinos are built on beliefs like this.
link to original post

Some here might answer your post in a derogatory or sarcastic fashion, I will not.
John Patrick is a noted author and proclaimed "expert" on all things gambling especially craps, He has published many books, none of which I have read, but referred to as a high-level reference kinda like the Wizard.

I did not post that I "don't understand the math." I posted that the math associated with answers to my questions would be confusing meaning, for me, unnecessary as I was confident that the answers given would be accurate and correct. BTW, they were.

I capitalize ODDS to make a clear distinction between House EDGE which is the go-to phrase used on these forum pages and posts to show everybody how impossible it is to beat the house.

It was NOT my math. It was the math performed byThatDonGuy a member savant of the highest level.

No, casinos are built and prosper on the backs of "establishment" failed, let's try this system, players who absolutely know that one cannot beat a-EV game.

Thanks for your well wishes. They are appreciated.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: camapl

Clearly, his request was merely meant to stir some of us up.
link to original post

I disagree. I think he meant to ask about the probability of sevening out within 5 (or 11) rolls without making the point first, but just worded it badly.
link to original post

You are correct. I thought the question was straight forward and did not anticipate the confusion that followed, as there was no context, and for that I APOLOGIZE.

CONTEXT: Hopping the 7

I believe that the Achilles Heel of the game of craps is the Hop 7. I have posted before that Hopping the 7 is a 5 ROLL BET not a 1 roll sucker bet as most believe plus it is among the cheapest wagers in the casino at $3.00.
Example: 5 rolls @ $3 = $15 a 7 out on the 5th roll gets the player $16 or a $1.00 net win.

The math above produced by ThatDonGuy shows that depending on the point established, the ODDS of a 7 out is approximately 70% in favor of the player within that 5 roll window. I don't know of ANY wager in the casino that affords a player 70% odds of winning a single bet. Of course, there is that 30% area where the point is converted or where the hand continues without either event happening. At that point, one could Martingale the Hop 7 where the ODDS of winning increase to up to approximately 95% of a 7 out (unless there is a point conversion) based on the math of ThatDonGuy.

There are drawbacks. I am well aware. I do not recommend playing this at a live table because the pace of play would create some amount of chaos with a player throwing chips at the stickman plus other distractions. This method should be played at a bubble craps machine so that the player can place the wagers at his leisure prior to rolling the dice, so he might consider other options of play within any given hand.

I practice every day with several different simulators to refine and deal with the obstacles that occur.

I have started playing for real over the last 2 months and am up $600+ which includes one losing session of $500.

tuttigym
link to original post

Thank you for the context. It shows you shouldn’t use Don’s 70% calc but his 50% calc.

What you are up against, Tuttigym, are closed minds on the matter of combining -EV bets in order to come out +EV. You see, my mind is closed on this too, in other words I refuse to look into it because when there are two or more bets in a combination, the expected result is to add those results together, and at a casino you are adding bets that have a negative outcome. Unless you use the free odds, and that would be adding a negative number to a value of zero.

If you succeed in what you are trying, you are going to make history, and better than that, you are going to be able to thumb your nose at the many millions of other craps player in the world who have explored every nook and cranny, every angle imaginable, gambled life and fortune for this holy grail of the bet combination that beats the house edge. No one is going to believe you so you will have the satisfaction of just knowing you've done it ... as for the lack of recognition, you can cry all the way to the bank and your massive bankroll there.

Quote: unJon

Thank you for the context. It shows you shouldn’t use Don’s 70% calc but his 50% calc.
link to original post

Thank you for redirecting my focus to the point conversion formula. So for me, when the point is converted, I stop my hopping 7 as I have lost the hand, and that is gambling. When I am playing, I do not play every hand or every roll simply because the game can be fickle as you well know. Still the math shows that 7 outs will outpace point conversions mostly with fewer rolls anyway.

If I am a Don't player with a basic line bet at the table minimum and place 2X or 3X odds, I know that a win pays reverse odds, so I Hop the 7 for $3 or $6 for the next 5 rolls winning extra $$ against those reverse odds payouts. If the point is a 6 or 8, I might not be so inclined to play the hand. I give myself those options.

tuttigym

Quote: odiousgambit

What you are up against, Tuttigym, are closed minds on the matter of combining -EV bets in order to come out +EV. You see, my mind is closed on this too, in other words I refuse to look into it because when there are two or more bets in a combination, the expected result is to add those results together, and at a casino you are adding bets that have a negative outcome. Unless you use the free odds, and that would be adding a negative number to a value of zero.

If you succeed in what you are trying, you are going to make history, and better than that, you are going to be able to thumb your nose at the many millions of other craps player in the world who have explored every nook and cranny, every angle imaginable, gambled life and fortune for this holy grail of the bet combination that beats the house edge. No one is going to believe you so you will have the satisfaction of just knowing you've done it ... as for the lack of recognition, you can cry all the way to the bank and your massive bankroll there.
link to original post

Thanks og, I realize what you have posted is quite accurate, but as I have posted, currently, I am doing well and having lots of fun doing it. As I previously posted, I really cannot see doing this at the tables. The individual Bubble Craps play station console is, for me, the perfect venue. The game is just too fast, there are too many distractions, and table position as a player would only increase the chaos. If you have simulations available, perhaps you might practice and/or experiment as I do daily. One could even use the WOO game, even though there are no Hop bets, using the Any 7 wager.

I am not looking to make history or create ill will. I have not read or seen anything that resembles what I am offering here, so I am not sure your statement above about "every nook and cranny" is correct the reason being that with feet set in stone, everyone absolutely believes the Hop bets are just one roll sucker bets. A "massive bankroll with this approach? Not going to happen because if I am that successful, Harrah's Cherokee will lock me out.

Take care, friend.

tuttigym