LADanny
LADanny
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Joined: Feb 14, 2023
February 25th, 2023 at 7:09:06 PM permalink
What is the correct way to calculate the odds of 9 consecutive losing outside roulette bets? The odds of losing on a single spin on black/red, even/odd, hi/low is 52.6%. If I plug .526 with a 150 series length (50 roulette spins with 3 events on each spin) and a streak of 9 into streak calculators online, I get 19.075%. However, if I go to a binomial distribution calculator (uiowa being my favorite) and enter n = 150, p = .0030822772 (.526 to the ninth), and an x value of 1, the chance of the .3% event happening >= 1 is 37.06%. Are either of these percentages correct?
Ace2
Ace2
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February 25th, 2023 at 8:08:32 PM permalink
The chance of 150 coin flips without a streak of nine heads is the 152nd Fibonacci number of the 9th order divided by 2^150. Use that to approximate even-money roulette bets, which are reasonably close to coin flips

Use a Markov chain to get the exact answer. Very easy to set up this scenario
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 25th, 2023 at 8:22:13 PM permalink
One problem with what you are trying to do is, the three events on each spin aren't independent.

The probability of getting 9 losses in a row at least once somewhere in a run of 50 spins is about 6.2077%.
For 150 spins, using 10/19 instead of 0.526, I get 19.1821%.
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