Inconceivably bad run of luck

Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
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Quote: MDawg

Where else but on a gambling forum would we run into such improbable but not impossible occurrences, is what some people don't want to accept.

Something improbable happens, which by the odds of probability must happen, somewhere, sometime, and then it doesn't take much for the person who experienced that improbable event to find his way to a well known gambling site to speak of it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/19626-went-for-it/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/36540-did-shoeless-joe-parlay-400-into-1-6-million-playing-blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/big-wins/36485-60-winning-hands-in-a-row/#post825213

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/36532-18yos-in-a-row-revisited/
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Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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the perspective I like is:

Let's say the reputation of this poster, if we knew about it, was impeccable .

If there is only one chance in a million then that this person is wrong about '45 in a row', that is one chance in 10^6 ... if it actually happened, it was one chance in 10^13

so we can say that it is more likely that he is simply mistaken by 7 orders of magnitude
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Quote: ChumpChange

All you need is to place 4 come bet numbers and 7-out eleven times in a row. I'm sure it's easy, for those with Victor Luck.
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Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
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Quote: UP84

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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True, but until we hear further from the poster, it's possible he's looking for information on the probability of this event in order to gauge his own belief in the memory.
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Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
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Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
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I reposted the original post. After thinking about this a little more, I believe (perhaps) he meant ‘come out bets’, and not ‘come bets’. My analysis, and those of the others who responded, answered as if it was 45 ‘come out’ bets.

If you think about it, if you are betting what is often referred to as ‘continual come’ bets, it would even be exponentially MORE difficult to lose 45 in a row. If your first come bet sets a point, and you place a new come bet, one of them wins on a seven while the other would win in the original point.

By the way, the other bad streak is a one in 16 million event.
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Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
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IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
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Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
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I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
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IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
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This post should be liked 7 billion times. Good explanation, and example.

What are the odds we are lucky enough to have so many people who have had so many extraordinary gambling events happen to them? To be fair, this is the place people come to discuss such things.
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Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: kmccorm1

My first post on this site - hope I'm in the right spot. About 5 years ago I was on the wrong side of an incredible improbability at the craps table: I lost 45 come bets in a row (earlier this year I lost 24; it brought back bad memories). I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening. Anybody know how to calculate this?
link to original post

I reposted the original post. After thinking about this a little more, I believe (perhaps) he meant ‘come out bets’, and not ‘come bets’. My analysis, and those of the others who responded, answered as if it was 45 ‘come out’ bets.

If you think about it, if you are betting what is often referred to as ‘continual come’ bets, it would even be exponentially MORE difficult to lose 45 in a row. If your first come bet sets a point, and you place a new come bet, one of them wins on a seven while the other would win in the original point.

By the way, the other bad streak is a one in 16 million event.
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This is incorrect. There’s positive correlation in losing continuous come bets because they all lose on a 7. It would be more likely to lose 45 come bets in a row continuously coming than to lose 45 come out bets in a row.
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Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
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Quote: Romes

Napkin math (50/50) would indicate .5^45 = .00000000000002, or ~ 1 in 50 trillion. If you're not familiar with math there's only 2 outcomes to this:

1) you're lying and it's not true.
2) you were 100% cheated.

Hope you're being honest, but I'm gonna go w/ Option #1.
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Quote: gordonm888

So, what you said is wrong. It's either a misapplication of statistics or you deserve the Nobel Prize for discovering an entirely new kind of mathematics.

Quote: OnceDear

Inconceivable; impossible to imagine or think of

Yet here we have it. A place where we defy the impossible.

It's one thing. For the rules to insist that we are polite in expressing disbelief. For Gordon to roll out the 'but improbable things happen' argument is another thing all together.
Is it conceivable that the OP misremembers? Is it conceivable that he's being mischievous? Is it conceivable that someone other than the OP will get suspended soon, or that enemies of this from will fall about laughing.

The event portrayed in the OP did not happen.
The salient question now is Why was the post really made?
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Quote: vegas

Quote: OnceDear

Inconceivable; impossible to imagine or think of
The event portrayed in the OP did not happen.
The salient question now is Why was the post really made?
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Also notice the person who made this post has not returned. Trolls will troll.
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Quote: kmccorm1

Wow - so many responses! Let me first apoogize for not being more specific here. It's not quite the way I wrote it.

When I keep track of my come bets I disregard anything that's resolved on a come-out roll, and I also disregard the wins/losses on the come line. I'm only concerned with come bets AFTER A POINT IS ESTALBLISHED AND I HAVE ODDS ON THEM, and I LOSE BOTH MY BASE BET AND MY ODDS. So this bad run of 45 straight (I'm 100% sure it was at least 43, 99% sure it was at least 44, and pretty sure it was 45) losses was AFTER my come bet was on a number and with odds (I believe this was at 4 different tables over a 2-day span). My rudimentary math skills tell me there's a 60% chance (on average) of losing each come bet after the point is established. So while this is far from 44T - 1, it still seems like the odds are astronomical, and I've always wondered what the odds were of this happening, or if anyone, anywhere has had a smiliar experience. (NOTE: I typically only bet $10 come, with 2x odds, so while I lost more/faster than I wanted to, I lived to lose another day :) ).

As for my other 2 'worst' outings . . .

About 7 years ago I endured 9 PSO's in a row. I believe that's about 1.8M - 1? Anybody else done worse than this?

And as mentioned earlier, I also endured 24 straight pass line losses last year. DISCLAIMER: I track these the same way I track losses on the come line, i.e. I disregard the come-out roll. This is 24 straight 'points' that ended with a 7, as opposed to the point being made. It's not 44, but it's still an awful lot!
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Quote: kmccorm1

My rudimentary math skills tell me there's a 60% chance (on average) of losing each come bet after the point is established.]

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Ace2

When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence
link to original post

I don't agree at all. Really. You act as if the entire world consists of one trial of dice rolls at craps.

When something happens say, 100,000 times a day, you should expect to hear about a 1/100,000 occurrence on a daily basis.

While I agree that 1 in 40 trillion sounds impossible to me, I remind you that there are >7 billion people in the world and that thousands of things (on average) happen every day to each of those 4 billion people. So, the world is big enough and diverse enough to accommodate certain kinds of extremely rare occurences.
link to original post

IF a decent percentage of those 7 billion people were craps players and IF a decent percentage of those players were members of this site, then you’d have a point.

But they aren’t and you don’t

For comparison purposes, the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket (adjusted for gimmies like 16 seeds vs 1 seeds) is roughly as probable as the 45 consecutive come bet losses. No one has ever picked a perfect bracket (millions try ever year) and very large prizes are offered (but never won). Now, if someone on a forum of a few hundred (?) people claimed they picked a perfect bracket, what’s the probability they are lying?
100.000000%. 9s start appearing a few more digits out
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But you are the one that said "When someone claims a one-in-trillions event, you can reply “BS” with > 99.9999999999% confidence" And that is simply mathematically wrong, because that's the confidence you would have if they said they will do it on the next set of dice rolls, not that someone in a world of 7 billion people claims that they did something after forty years of playing.

So, what you said is wrong. It's either a misapplication of statistics or you deserve the Nobel Prize for discovering an entirely new kind of mathematics.

And what I said and am saying again is that statistically unlikely events (not necessarily dice rolls) will indeed be truthfully reported to have occurred during your lifetime because you live in a world filled with >7 Billion people who are doing thousands of things a day (not rolling dice, but thousands of diverse things) for many thousands of days. And I stand by that statement. And I preceded that by saying that I also did not believe that a claim with a frequency of 1 in 40 trillion was likely to be true.
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Quote: kmccorm1

And for me, it's more about comps (free rooms, food, events, golf, etc.) than anything else. Craps is fun, but it's the perks that make it all worth while :)
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Quote: Ace2

Quote: kmccorm1

And for me, it's more about comps (free rooms, food, events, golf, etc.) than anything else. Craps is fun, but it's the perks that make it all worth while :)
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”Free” rooms, etc?

The only reason to play is for fun. The comps they give you will be far less than the house edge you give them. You pay them $1000 to get $300 worth of stuff
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