BJ Math Question
H17@ $5 handX60HPH No RSA No DAS but...1deck .30% Downtown
$25 X 60 1500 X .28 = $42hr
$5 X 60 $300 X .30= $9hr
How far is my math off?
So, it's costing you $33 an hour to have the privilege of S17 and DAS?
I'd look at it this way:
If you want to play for $5: give up the S17, RSA, and DAS and play downtown. If you want to play for $25: find a S17, RSA, DAS table on the strip (or elsewhere). But if you want to play for $5, do not go to the strip and play for $25 just to get the little rules advantages.
And, I guess, if you can take the atmosphere, play for $5 at Bighorn. Their rules are pretty awesome. H17, double any 2 or 3 cards, DAS (no 3 card doubles after split), unlimited splitting, RSA, late surrender.
Let's say I want an opportunity to win $100 during this hour of play.
The standard deviation of the strip game is $25 x 1.14 x sqrt(60) = $221. With the house advantage of -$42, a $100 win is a (100 - (-42))/221 = 0.64 sigma condition. The likelihood that I will win over $100 is 26%.
The standard deviation of the downtown game is $5 x 1.14 x sqrt(60) = $44. Probably less because the 1.14 factor includes DAS. With the house advantage of -$9, a $100 win is a (100 - (-9))/44 = 2.48 sigma condition. The likelihood that I will win at least $100 during an hour of play is 0.6%
Quote: BenJammin$25 X 60 1500 X .28 = $42hr
$5 X 60 $300 X .30= $9hr
For those who wish to be as precise as possible, here are a few nits to pick:
Its not only amount of money bet that should be compared, but:
TIME since the RATE of play is generally thought to be Faster on the Strip than it is Downtown.
Also, you are using the Comp tables to determine Hands Per Hour and those figures are thought by me to be obsolete figures that were originally rounded off so casino personnel could to easier and therefore quicker math. So an ultra-purist statistician might want to look at actual rate of play in present day games versus historical figures that were probably not all that accurate at the time and may not be at all accurate at the present time.
Sorry to throw such money-wrenches into the mix, but . . . .
Quote: PapaChubbyWhy are you playing blackjack in the first place? Are you just throwing away the house advantage for the privilege of playing? When I play, I want an opportunity to win some money.
Let's say I want an opportunity to win $100 during this hour of play.
The standard deviation of the strip game is $25 x 1.14 x sqrt(60) = $221. With the house advantage of -$42, a $100 win is a (100 - (-42))/221 = 0.64 sigma condition. The likelihood that I will win over $100 is 26%.
The standard deviation of the downtown game is $5 x 1.14 x sqrt(60) = $44. Probably less because the 1.14 factor includes DAS. With the house advantage of -$9, a $100 win is a (100 - (-9))/44 = 2.48 sigma condition. The likelihood that I will win at least $100 during an hour of play is 0.6%
Well, why are you playing blackjack? You have a much higher probability of winning $100 on one bet at roulette, even double zero.
Guess you just wanted to criticize someone. I thought his post made a lot of sense.
Quote: dmWell, why are you playing blackjack? You have a much higher probability of winning $100 on one bet at roulette, even double zero.
Guess you just wanted to criticize someone. I thought his post made a lot of sense.
Wasn't intending to be critical. Just trying to add some perspective in terms of the reason for playing. If your intent is to minimize house edge, don't sit at the table in the first place. From my perspective, the house edge is the fee that you pay to gamble, and gambling involves variance.
The original poster implied that the downtown game, even with worse rules, is a more desirable game simply because the house edge per hour is less. I disagree. Let's play a game where I take a dime from you every hand. You cannot win anything or lose anything. At the end of an hour, I'll only have taken $6. Is this a better game?
Quote: BenJamminS17@ $25 handX60HPH 6 decks House Take? .28% Strip Props (house edge BJ survey)
H17@ $5 handX60HPH No RSA No DAS but...1deck .30% Downtown
$25 X 60 1500 X .28 = $42hr
$5 X 60 $300 X .30= $9hr
How far is my math off?
So, it's costing you $33 an hour to have the privilege of S17 and DAS?
Kudos. It's nice to see someone do a little homework before playing. If you look around the strip, you can find those .28% HE games at $10 minimums. They were at Mandalay Bay and Monte Carlo all summer and were still there the last time I checked which was the end of September. I have no reason to believe they've changed. That would knock the loss down although I think the 60 hands per hour estimate is a little low.
Quote: BenJamminS17@ $25 handX60HPH 6 decks House Take? .28% Strip Props (house edge BJ survey)
H17@ $5 handX60HPH No RSA No DAS but...1deck .30% Downtown
$25 X 60 1500 X .28 = $42hr
$5 X 60 $300 X .30= $9hr
How far is my math off?
So, it's costing you $33 an hour to have the privilege of S17 and DAS?
BTW, you slipped a decimal place. $1500 x .28% = $4.20 per hour, and $300 x .30% = $0.90 per hour. So it's only costing you $3.30/hr to get the much larger variance of the strip game.
Quote: PapaChubbyBTW, you slipped a decimal place. $1500 x .28% = $4.20 per hour, and $300 x .30% = $0.90 per hour. So it's only costing you $3.30/hr to get the much larger variance of the strip game.
Ok that's what I was looking for. Thanks. RU sure? How do the casinos stay in business?
I once a had a secretary that typed over a hundred words a minute but she made one mistake.
Quote: BenJamminOk that's what I was looking for. Thanks. RU sure? How do the casinos stay in business?
I once a had a secretary that typed over a hundred words a minute but she made one mistake.
Here's another way to look at it. At a house edge of .28% you will lose 28 cents for every $100 wagered playing perfect basic strategy over time. Stand behind any table and see how long it takes for someone to play less than optimally.Not long at all and up goes the house edge. Now watch for over betting as risk of ruin claims another victim. No problem for the casino, there is always someone to fill that seat and repeat the process.
Now stand behind any table and wait for someone to play perfect basic strategy. Not close to perfect, not cherry picking, but perfect basic strategy. What's that? Still waiting?
As long as they have an edge the casinos will do just fine.
