15% cashback profitable?
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks
Are we talking sports? Whatever the case, the answer is most likely yes, however, I would proceed carefully when playing at any offshore or unregulated online casino for significant amounts.Quote: Dexter1234575Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks
Any mathematical way of proving it too be profitable? thanks for the reply
Quote: Dexter1234575
Any mathematical way of proving it too be profitable? thanks for the reply
be very meticulous i dont care if you have to use a pen and pencil to record it
Hi Dexter,Quote: Dexter1234575Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks
Its value depends on how often it is repeatable: E.g. is it each day based on daily end of day loss?
If it is repeatable, then the way to get max value is to make one wager per day, win or lose. You decide whether you want max value with lots of volatility, or less value with minimum volatility.
I.e. you could bet on one number each day. Approximately once every 37 days, your win would return 35 of the lost days stakes and for the 36 days that you lost, your 15% cashback would reward you.
Or, you could cover say 2/3 of numbers each day for less volatile outcome but you would only get a loss rebate on about 1/3 of days.
Basically, the more days you are getting the rebate, but losing, the greater the benefit.
Only one wager per day though as you want to minimise exposure to the HE.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1703
Quote: OnceDearHi Dexter,
Its value depends on how often it is repeatable: E.g. is it each day based on daily end of day loss?
If it is repeatable, then the way to get max value is to make one wager per day, win or lose. You decide whether you want max value with lots of volatility, or less value with minimum volatility.
I.e. you could bet on one number each day. Approximately once every 37 days, your win would return 35 of the lost days stakes and for the 36 days that you lost, your 15% cashback would reward you.
Or, you could cover say 2/3 of numbers each day for less volatile outcome but you would only get a loss rebate on about 1/3 of days.
Basically, the more days you are getting the rebate, but losing, the greater the benefit.
Only one wager per day though as you want to minimise exposure to the HE.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1703
MATHEMATICALLY the above makes sense. But be prepared to not be paid because of an ambiguous, obscure T and C that the casino says you failed to follow. And this also does not include the simple possibility of the casino flat out cheating.
Good luck. Tread carefully!
thanks for the reply
I would be careful with that as well, they might notice that.Quote: Dexter1234575Hi there mainly looking for live casino games etc live roulette where I can bet on the alternative outcome on another site.
Have you done any research on the casino's reputation? (and you can't just use any old affiliate site and trust what they are saying) That would be the most important aspect before moving forward. I'm not sure if you want to say the name here or not. You can PM me the name and ill help check out their reputation.
This might help you. https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/loss-rebates/loss-rebates.html
This sounds like collusion and affiliate scalping, and I'm not judging, I'm just saying this is something they do look for, especially, when it comes to online casino affiliates. I have yet to see an online casino affiliate that doesn't specifically mention this type of behavior as being forbidden. usually, it just states you can't play under your own affiliate account.Quote: Dexter1234575Hi thanks for your reply, its a friend that i know and trust who is in partnership with the casino and im an affiliate myself so thats how i can get 15% cashback on losses most wouldnt get this much, just trying too see if there is a way i can make a chunk from this edge i have :)
In theory, there is an advantage to be had, but pulling it off may be tricky. You have to ask yourself what are the chances of it all going to hell and not getting paid when you win. Without knowing this, the casino could be free-rolling you. If you lose they let it continue, but when you win they scream fraud and keep everything. Does the theoretical advantage make up for the odds of that happening? I have no clue. That's a calculated risk you have to think about.
FYI I have a feeling this is something the owners of this site would highly frown on.
Good luck.
If you're talking about referring yourself as a player from your affiliate account so you can get paid on your own losses, then (1) that's against the terms of your affiliate agreement, and (2) it's not fair to the casino.Quote: Dexter1234575im an affiliate myself so thats how i can get 15% cashback on losses
Download my "Loss Rebate" spreadsheet and plug in the details.Quote: Dexter1234575Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks
My suggestion is Craps with full odds, if possible to play a very short session.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/loss-rebate-theorem-spreadsheet-with-risk-of-ruin
Nice tool.Quote: teliotDownload my "Loss Rebate" spreadsheet and plug in the details.
My suggestion is Craps with full odds, if possible to play a very short session.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/loss-rebate-theorem-spreadsheet-with-risk-of-ruin
But for sure will take into account too see if i can calculate any risk etc.
Thanks for the tip
I'm astonished that they allow this, but if that's really true, then go get 'em!Quote: Dexter1234575This is not a mainstream casino too say and more of a low stakes casino, ive asked and they are happy with me playing myself with this cashback on losses. They think the casino will always win irrelevent of any cashback etc.
Assuming this is all true(I'm becoming very skeptical) one can only assume it's rigged or they will find a way to screw you.Quote: Dexter1234575This is not a mainstream casino too say and more of a low stakes casino, ive asked and they are happy with me playing myself with this cashback on losses. They think the casino will always win irrelevent of any cashback etc
But for sure will take into account too see if i can calculate any risk etc.
Thanks for the tip
I just want to make it clear, I dont think it would be unreasonable to find an online casino( one with a good reputation) that would, in fact, offer a 15% loss rebate. What I'm skeptical about is the fact that they would allow any affiliate scheme shenanigans.Quote: Dexter1234575this is what im concerned about, if i do it at all i think i would keep on a very low money scale and just try too go unseen
Quote: Dexter1234575 " i would keep on a very low money scale and just try too go unseen"
You would be surprised how little it takes for some of the online casinos to notice. Even just a few hundred dollars in winnings can be a red flag for them. This isn't always the case, there are many casinos where large amounts go under the radar without any problems(until there is).
But let's assume they don't notice, and you keep the monies low... therein lies the problem, in order to take advantage of something like this, to where it's worth your while, you really need to be slinging around some bigger bucks.
If you think about it... let's say you invested 1k for the month and made one big bet(make sure they even allow large bets in the T&C's) what's that really worth?
You need to come up with a plan while thinking about risk vs rewards, figure out how much you want to toss at this, then use the suggested tools provided and figure out what it's worth. If everything works out, you can always scale up slowly.
Yeah, it sounds very convoluted and risky for the amount of money you can make.Quote: DRichI couldn't imagine making much off this promo if it is based on Monthly losses. If it was daily it would definitely be worth exploring.
However, if someone can make a few hundred dollars a month without much effort while doing something they enjoy... AKA a hobby. There's nothing wrong with that. $200 a month could mean something significant to someone.
Back when my Brother was living in Columbia, I had mentioned there was a casino online where you could make a few hundred a month basically for free but with some hoops effort that was a little time-consuming. I told him it just was not all that interesting since it wasn't enough money to mess with. To him, that $200 USD was a significant amount he could really use.
