Horse Betting Results Question
He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.
His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.
He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.
Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.
His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.
My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?
Quote: Allan99I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.
He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.
His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.
He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.
Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.
His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.
My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?
my answer would be yes and no
yes, 802 races seems to be enough to indicate an edge like that
but, on the other hand there are exactly zero winning handicappers that I've ever talked to or seen post that claim an edge that large
most that I know of are shooting for a much smaller edge and are trying to accomplish this with a great number of bets and rebates from overseas books
because their edge is so small they need to make large numbers of bets - I'm talking about edges of 2, or 3%
so, that makes me think his results are an anomaly
or else he is probably the greatest handicapper in the world
you are talking about beating a takeout averaging about 18% unless he's getting rebates
the garden variety of horseplayers are not stupid. they generally don't give up horses at unrealistic odds
as I'm sure you know, there are a great many gamblers who make claims that are untruthful
I'm not saying that about your friend - just saying
my best guess is that he had a great run on a fairly large no. of bets and he mistakenly believes he can routinely perform to the edge he anticipated
Quote: Allan99I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.
He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.
His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.
He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.
Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.
His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.
My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?
I just had a quick look at these results, and going by your figures, for a "random picker" this result would be about +11.5 SD for the win and +7 SD for the place.
"Random Picker" Assumptions:
Total Races: 802
Total Bet: 100,000 (50k win and 50k place)
Average Bet: About 62.5 the win and 62.5 the place (62.34 win and 62.34 place would have been closer, but I think using 62.5 is acceptable for this)
House edge: 20%
Total bet (win): 50,000
Return (win): 73,000
Total bet (place): 50,000
Return (place): 73,000
---
Also, I had a quick look and 15% to 20% is quite possible as his "long term edge".
Can you PM me or post how much time he spends per week working out his bets/horses to follow and how he does it*** ?
***: Don't need to go into specifics, just general things like he could spend an average of 10 hours per week watching trials and 10 hours per week watching race replays (just an example).
With $140k collected at an assumed average rate of 6 to 1, that means $20k of $100k wagered won for a 20% win rate.
I don’t bet on horses but I’ll assume a 16% parimutuel vig which means the actual probability of an event paying 6 to 1 is 12%. With these assumptions, the standard deviation for 800 bets is 9.2. Therefore, winning 160 bets (64 more than the expectation of 800 * 0.12) is 7 deviations above expectations, which would definitely be statistically significant.
Quote: lilredrooster
my best guess is that he had a great run on a fairly large no. of bets and he mistakenly believes he can routinely perform to the edge he anticipated
My best guess is that he has misled you.
My second best guess is that variance was on his side.
My third best guess is that he is really freaking good at picking horses, perhaps the best in history.
is he betting online? If so, I would ask that he show me all of his account history while logged on. If he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.Quote: Allan99I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.
He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.
His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.
He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.
Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.
His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.
My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?
Going forward, ask him to tell you what he's going to bet prior to the race.
I have friends that think they can beat craps with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo voodoo stuff and they actually believe in it themselves, especially when they are on a good run. whenever they bust out their bankroll they realize they didn't stay hydrated enough and adjust for that until they go on a good run and now suddenly it works. Rinse and repeat.
Quote: AxelWolfIf he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.
I'm not saying that about this guy in this instance - I really don't know
but the reality is there are gamblers all over the web on different boards making outrageous claims of winning of all sorts
it's really sad because the tru pros like yourself would like to discuss things realistically with others who have skills
but then you get lumped into this category of gamblers claiming wins on these web boards and that is a bad category to be in
I've made the mistake before but I will 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 post my results for any length of time
I don't want to be lumped in together with these buffoons
I'm skeptical when it comes to guys that claim they can beat horses and handicap Sports. Especially, anyone that's making money via touting their pics, or it seems like they have some type of agenda. I do believe there are people that can do both with an advantage. With a few rare exceptions, those people aren't really touting what they're doing, they just do it and make the money.Quote: lilredroosterI'm not saying that about this guy in this instance - I really don't know
but the reality is there are gamblers all over the web on different boards making outrageous claims of winning of all sorts
it's really sad because the tru pros like yourself would like discuss things realistically with others who have skills
but then you get lumped into this category of gamblers claiming wins on these web boards and that is a bad category to be in
I've made the mistake before but I will never again post my results for any length of time
I don't want to be lumped in together with these buffoons
Quote: AxelWolfI'm skeptical when it comes to guys that claim they can beat horses and handicap Sports.
I'm skeptical of every gambler making claims of winning for significant lengths of time except for BJ and machine APs
at least with horses and sports the odds only represent an 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 of the public so its definitely possible
its really a ridiculous situation
it makes me want to puke and stop posting here and elsewhere on gambling boards
but I have some interest in what's being said so I don't stop
whatever
Quote: AxelWolfis he betting online? If so, I would ask that he show me all of his account history while logged on. If he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.
Going forward, ask him to tell you what he's going to bet prior to the race.
I have friends that think they can beat craps with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo voodoo stuff and they actually believe in it themselves, especially when they are on a good run. whenever they bust out their bankroll they realize they didn't stay hydrated enough and adjust for that until they go on a good run and now suddenly it works. Rinse and repeat.
My friend has shown me screen shots of his results. He also has offered for me to go online and log into his account.
I have known my friend for 26.5 years and he is a total stand up guy. Neither of us is trying to tout any of it.
Even with his fantastic results I am still personally shaking my head how he could truly have such a big edge and especially considering that includes having to overcome the negative 16 percent take out. Because there have been many tens of thousands of horse players who have tried to figure this game out for many years and somehow my friend could literally be the best or close to the best handicapper of all time?
The way I look at it, time will tell as his new results get added to his old results and the reality is made clearer.
Quote: Allan99My friend has shown me screen shots of his results. He also has offered for me to go online and log into his account.
I have known my friend for 26.5 years and he is a total stand up guy. Neither of us is trying to tout any of it.
Even with his fantastic results I am still personally shaking my head how he could truly have such a big edge and especially considering that includes having to overcome the negative 16 percent take out. Because there have been many tens of thousands of horse players who have tried to figure this game out for many years and somehow my friend could literally be the best or close to the best handicapper of all time?
The way I look at it, time will tell as his new results get added to his old results and the reality is made clearer.
I just fear that there might be something more to all this that we/you are missing. I noticed you said account, as in a singular account. It's nice to know he can get all that done on one account without any scrutiny. He's been Cashing Out along the way I hope(?)
If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.
Quote: AxelWolf
If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.
Axel, let's say he is legit. That he is somehow able to make +EV bets reliably. Once you were confident in his abilities.....
Using all your tricks (multiple accounts, rebates, etc...), how much could you make and really get paid on reliably? More or less than a million a year?
Quote: SM777Of course not. The takeout in horse racing makes it impossible to beat long term.
What about those guys that beat it?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
Quote: unJonWhat about those guys that beat it?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
Great read. I wish it mentioned the EV they had. I would assume that on many, if not most races, there would be no bet that would exceed the 17% house take. I'm wondering how many races actually have a true +EV horse? Ans once they bet on it, the odds on it go down, since it was a pari-mutual betting. Sounds believable, and fishy at the same time.....
Quote: unJonWhat about those guys that beat it?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
I remember reading this story a year ago. So the obvious question is whether this friend is a data-mining AI guru who is doing something similar?
Quote: TumblingBonesI remember reading this story a year ago. So the obvious question is this whether this friend is a data-mining AI guru who is doing something similar?
that was a long time ago - Hong Kong racing - gigantic pools and huge fields - at least before covid they were averaging $15 million bet per race
I've read several accounts of this and I don't believe it can be done today
why?
when the Benter and Alan Woods syndicate began their adventure the Asian racetrack managers were so happy with their whales that they provided them with proprietary info
thru the computers they informed them of how much the extreme exotic (trifecta, superfecta, triple trio, etc.) combinations on every single horse would pay, or they gave them info on how much was bet on each horse in each of these pools and Benter's computers then did the calculations
this is when I believe the syndicate was performing at it best - when they had this info
they could then compare those payouts with their own estimated payouts based on the win odds and their own adjustments of those odds
this way they could find huge overlays
later, for some reason the Asians soured on their whales and refused to funnel them this info
right now, in racing, nobody can get this very valuable info
nobody knows how much the superfecta combo of the 1, 5, 8 and 14 will pay
you can only make a rough guess based on the win odds
and those guesses are often way, way, off
also, the OP stated that his friend was just betting to Win and Place which is a whole different ball of wax
he would have to have greatly superior predictive abilities to have a 15 - 20% edge
a great many are using computers today and nobody, I repeat nobody, is claiming an edge anywhere near that large
the OP stated that his friend was betting between $80 and $600
its possible with a hundred bets left he was breaking even or a little down and that's when he started betting $600 and he had a nice run
no, I can't believe anybody can get a 15-20% edge betting racing - it would have to be painstakingly documented for me to believe it
this is yet another example of people making outrageous unsubstantiated claims and getting people excited for no reason
possibly trolling or possibly his friend is just badly overestimating his own abilities and his own likely future performance
this is an everyday occurrence on gambling boards - it never ends
based on the view count on various boards it looks like thousands of people believe MDawg's outrageous claims
a brand new MDawg copycat will surely be coming soon to several boards and making people believe that they too can pretty easily have phenomenal success at some negative expectancy game
the Bill Benter and Alan Woods syndicate make almost $1 billion betting Hong Kong racing
when Alan Woods died his estate was valued at $900 million, a large part of it from beating racing and subsequent appreciation
it is almost surely the most spectacular accomplishment in the history of gambling
and a large % of the public thinks horseplayers are pathetic losers who always die broke
Quote: lilredroosterit's kind of amusing to me
the Bill Benter and Alan Woods syndicate make almost $1 billion betting Hong Kong racing
when Alan Woods died his estate was valued at $900 million, a large part of it from beating racing and subsequent appreciation
it is almost surely the most spectacular accomplishment in the history of gambling
and a large % of the public thinks horseplayers are pathetic losers who always die broke
I know nothing about horse racing, but I know some people who do.
First of all, before I get to the claims Axelwolf addressed above:
Hong Kong racing is very, very different from American racing. No drugs, if your horses underperform you are called before a board, and so on. It's a very transparent, monitored affair, so "pure handicapping" can work, as opposed to the muck and the mire of American racing where you better figure out who is using what drugs and who is betting their own horses. In other words, in Hong Kong you can't stiff horses and you can't use races as workouts to set up a better price down the road. You better run to form, or you're gonna get hell. And jockeys are held to a higher, cleaner standard. The bumping and grinding of some American jockeys would not (and have not been) tolerated.
Quote: AxelWolfI just fear that there might be something more to all this that we/you are missing. I noticed you said account, as in a singular account. It's nice to know he can get all that done on one account without any scrutiny. He's been Cashing Out along the way I hope(?)
If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.
I know nothing about horse racing. Having said that, let me address what was revealed when Betfair was called into court some years back and had to share their results records, it may have been for a year. If anybody wants to look it up -- may take more than a google search -- please do and report back.
Betfair had between two million and three million accounts. Do not know the exact figure. The year in question, the number of accounts that made six digits or more --
Drum roll, please....
Fewer than a dozen.
So bear that in mind.
I'm not buying what this guy is being sold. I'm just saying, if it's in fact true that this guy's friend is getting a 15% to 20% profit over 802 events, then I wouldn't hesitate jumping in.Quote: redietzI know nothing about horse racing. Having said that, let me address what was revealed when Betfair was called into court some years back and had to share their results records, it may have been for a year. If anybody wants to look it up -- may take more than a google search -- please do and report back.
Betfair had between two million and three million accounts. Do not know the exact figure. The year in question, the number of accounts that made six digits or more --
Drum roll, please....
Fewer than a dozen.
So bear that in mind.
Quote: billryanIn over 50 years of casually following horses, I don't know a single person who claims to be ahead. My friends Uncle won or placed in several NYRA handicapping contests but insisted no one could beat the races.
your uncle was dead wrong
here you go - from the New York Times - Ernie Dahlman betting New York racing
at the time of the article, 2001, he was averaging making about $700K per year - he retired a wealthy man
there are many others who have won but made much less
unlike craps and baccarat players when they win they don't brag - they know no one will believe them so what's the point - the OP is the exception
I would guess about 1 - 2% show a long term profit - similar to the % of those who beat machines and blackjack
Ernie Dahlman used to post regularly at paceadvantage.com - that forum has been around a long time - several posters there knew him personally
right now a high % of those who win are getting rebates from overseas books - it's a much better deal than Betfair for various reasons
rebates can reduce the impact of the takeout by about 20% to as much as 35% - it becomes a whole different ballgame
btw: paceadvantage.com is a huge horse racing forum that's been around a long time and has probably at least 100 times as many posts as here
there are many intelligent and very knowledgeable posters there
of course, there is some crap there like any forum, but anybody who really wanted to learn about racing could learn a lot there
https://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/03/magazine/the-wizard-of-odds.html
I've no doubt a few people can exploit rebates and sign up bonuses but that's not being a successful handicapper. Someone who makes a million dollars in bets and collects more than a million dollars in winnings is a successful handicapper. Someone who loses $50,000 but gets $80,000 back in rebates is not.
Quote: billryanMaking money by exploiting rebates doesn't equate to beating the horses. , in my opinion. Same as someone who uses multiple cards to collect multiple free play amounts isn't beating the slot machines.
I've no doubt a few people can exploit rebates and sign up bonuses but that's not being a successful handicapper. Someone who makes a million dollars in bets and collects more than a million dollars in winnings is a successful handicapper. Someone who loses $50,000 but gets $80,000 back in rebates is not.
Bill, you have a right to your opinion but I don't share it
the biggest rebates I know about (that you can get on all your bets) is 7%
unless they are only betting Win, Place, Show, which is very unlikely they are going up against a takeout that averages about 22%
the takeout on the exotics goes up to 28%
𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐛𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟓% 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭
to me this counts as beating racing, to you no - that's okay
also, there are several who have beaten racing not with rebates but with huge scores from the extreme exotics - double triple, superfecta, Pick 6, etc.
there have been some payouts of around a million, many in the hundreds of thousands directly from the parimutuel pools, not from rebate books
for many those big scores have put them ahead for their lifetime
it may have been mostly luck, nobody can say, but to me it still counts - I can't say that they didn't beat racing - that wouldn't be fair to them
coincidence or not, it just so happens that many who have hit for big scores are well known and respected handicappers which suggests that it was skill, not luck, that led them to their big scores
anyway, Good Luck on your bets if we are so lucky to have Triple Crown series races this year - you're a good guy whose opinion I respect and I don't really want to debate or argue with you
American racing, at least 10 years ago, featured about a dozen people called collectively (and unimaginatively) "the whales." They had negotiated rebates high enough that they were able to make money on a consistent basis betting huge amounts and collecting their rebates.
They were all using programs that bet for them based on pool distributions. All together, they represented a large portion of the total pools, probably around 30%. Unfortunately, as American racing shrank, and they were in fact competing against each other, they began spinning their collective wheels. Not sure how many, or how many of the original dozen or so, are still involved.
Everything became tighter and tougher.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not buying what this guy is being sold. I'm just saying, if it's in fact true that this guy's friend is getting a 15% to 20% profit over 802 events, then I wouldn't hesitate jumping in.
He made 46% on 802 races, not 15-20%. He said that he thought his edge was probably 15-20% but that he may have gotten lucky to have the 46% return. But he's really not sure. The reason he's not sure what his edge is is because he's made some tweaks to his system. And since he made the tweaks, his results have skyrocketed. He thinks his edge may in fact be 30-40%. That was why he asked Alan the question. He was wondering how significant it was that he made 46% over 6 months, betting 800 races. He obviously knows he has a big edge. But he just doesn't know how big.
I know the guy. I've seen his results. The bad news is that he already has a bankroll and he's not taking any investors. I asked him if he would consider posting an occasional pick on this board just for fun to show off a little bit. He said he would think about it. This same guy used to post on Sharp Sports Betting back around 2004-2006. He would post around 200-300 best a year. He showed a profit every year. I can't remember the exact numbers because it was a long time ago. But from what I remember, the first year his profit was around 14%, the next year it was around 9% and the third year it was around 5%. He didn't put in as many picks the last couple of years. Everyone on the site made money off his picks.
Quote: tapit2001He made 46% on 802 races, not 15-20%. He said that he thought his edge was probably 15-20% but that he may have gotten lucky to have the 46% return. But he's really not sure. The reason he's not sure what his edge is is because he's made some tweaks to his system. And since he made the tweaks, his results have skyrocketed. He thinks his edge may in fact be 30-40%. That was why he asked Alan the question. He was wondering how significant it was that he made 46% over 6 months, betting 800 races. He obviously knows he has a big edge. But he just doesn't know how big.
your post doesn't make any sense
obviously this guy, if he in fact has done this is an expert gambler
you mention his experience going back to 2004-2006
𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐬
he's an expert - that's obvious to you - why is he asking questions of the proletariat?
then you go on to say "He thinks his edge may in fact be 30-40%"
you've really strayed into the field of total ridiculousness now
you're in the same league as MDawg
you're babbling nonsense - so sad that there are some uneducated people that will believe these inane scribbles
keep trolling - maybe you'll get what you want - no one should ever underestimate the gullibility of the gambling public
I'm not going to waste any more time on you but I will tell you that the guy is very amateurish with the way he does things. His eye for horses is second to none. But he's very disorganized and he does things strictly through feel. Alan was trying to help him to get a little more methodical with the way he does things, so that he can make some serious money doing this.
I've ruined it for everybody
if it wasn't for me everybody here could have learned how to make 30 - 40% betting horses
Quote: tapit2001What in the world are you talking about? What do i have to gain by posting here? I was simply giving people a little more information about the guy and about the topic. But good job! When he reads this and sees there are jerk-offs like you on here, there is no chance he will give anyone any info on this board. Nice job ruining it for everyone!
I'm not going to waste any more time on you but I will tell you that the guy is very amateurish with the way he does things. His eye for horses is second to none. But he's very disorganized and he does things strictly through feel. Alan was trying to help him to get a little more methodical with the way he does things, so that he can make some serious money doing this.
It sounds like you are saying he is an 'idiot savant' with his special talent being an 'eye for horses'.
If I had that talent the one thing I can be sure is that you would not know about it. Unless I figured that a team would help me make more by being able to get bets down no one would know about my talent.
Quote: lilredroosterI would like to formally apologize to everybody on this board
I've ruined it for everybody
if it wasn't for me everybody here could have learned how to make 30 - 40% betting horses
We hates you! You took food out of my kids mouths, not to mention my local liquor store.
Quote: FastEddieWith a 46% return your friend should buy this site for you and nuke wll the naysayers.
link to original post
I'm wondering why mdawg hasn't? That way his threads would be unblocked and his greatness would be allowed to flow forth.
