Allan99
Allan99
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May 8th, 2020 at 9:05:20 PM permalink
I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.

He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.

His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.

He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.

Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.

His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.

My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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odiousgambit
May 9th, 2020 at 1:27:11 AM permalink
Quote: Allan99

I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.

He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.

His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.

He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.

Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.

His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.

My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?




my answer would be yes and no
yes, 802 races seems to be enough to indicate an edge like that
but, on the other hand there are exactly zero winning handicappers that I've ever talked to or seen post that claim an edge that large
most that I know of are shooting for a much smaller edge and are trying to accomplish this with a great number of bets and rebates from overseas books
because their edge is so small they need to make large numbers of bets - I'm talking about edges of 2, or 3%
so, that makes me think his results are an anomaly

or else he is probably the greatest handicapper in the world
you are talking about beating a takeout averaging about 18% unless he's getting rebates
the garden variety of horseplayers are not stupid. they generally don't give up horses at unrealistic odds

as I'm sure you know, there are a great many gamblers who make claims that are untruthful
I'm not saying that about your friend - just saying

my best guess is that he had a great run on a fairly large no. of bets and he mistakenly believes he can routinely perform to the edge he anticipated
𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘮 - 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮.........Edgar Allan Poe
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 9th, 2020 at 4:16:36 AM permalink
Quote: Allan99

I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.

He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.

His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.

He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.

Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.

His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.

My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?


I just had a quick look at these results, and going by your figures, for a "random picker" this result would be about +11.5 SD for the win and +7 SD for the place.

"Random Picker" Assumptions:

Total Races: 802
Total Bet: 100,000 (50k win and 50k place)
Average Bet: About 62.5 the win and 62.5 the place (62.34 win and 62.34 place would have been closer, but I think using 62.5 is acceptable for this)
House edge: 20%
Total bet (win): 50,000
Return (win): 73,000
Total bet (place): 50,000
Return (place): 73,000

---
Also, I had a quick look and 15% to 20% is quite possible as his "long term edge".

Can you PM me or post how much time he spends per week working out his bets/horses to follow and how he does it*** ?

***: Don't need to go into specifics, just general things like he could spend an average of 10 hours per week watching trials and 10 hours per week watching race replays (just an example).
Ace2
Ace2
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ksdjdj
May 9th, 2020 at 9:15:17 AM permalink
Rough estimate with rounding.

With $140k collected at an assumed average rate of 6 to 1, that means $20k of $100k wagered won for a 20% win rate.

I donít bet on horses but Iíll assume a 16% parimutuel vig which means the actual probability of an event paying 6 to 1 is 12%. With these assumptions, the standard deviation for 800 bets is 9.2. Therefore, winning 160 bets (64 more than the expectation of 800 * 0.12) is 7 deviations above expectations, which would definitely be statistically significant.
Last edited by: Ace2 on May 9, 2020
Itís all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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odiousgambitonenickelmiracle
May 9th, 2020 at 12:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster



my best guess is that he had a great run on a fairly large no. of bets and he mistakenly believes he can routinely perform to the edge he anticipated



My best guess is that he has misled you.
My second best guess is that variance was on his side.
My third best guess is that he is really freaking good at picking horses, perhaps the best in history.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 9th, 2020 at 12:55:33 PM permalink
Quote: Allan99

I have a friend who showed me his horse betting results over a 6 month period.

He bet 802 total races betting almost equal amounts on win and place.

His amount bet total (win + place) for each race ranged from 80 to 600 per race.

He bet a total of $100k and got back $146k.

Average paying odds were roughly 9 to 1 to win and 3 to 1 to place.

His biggest single race winnings was $8k. His 2nd biggest single race winnings was $6k. His 3rd biggest single race winnings was $3,500.

My friend believes he probably has an average edge of roughly 15% to 20% on his bets, not including any rebates or promotions. Would his 802 races result of being ahead 46% have much statistical significance towards him truly having a 15% to 20% long term edge?

is he betting online? If so, I would ask that he show me all of his account history while logged on. If he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.

Going forward, ask him to tell you what he's going to bet prior to the race.

I have friends that think they can beat craps with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo voodoo stuff and they actually believe in it themselves, especially when they are on a good run. whenever they bust out their bankroll they realize they didn't stay hydrated enough and adjust for that until they go on a good run and now suddenly it works. Rinse and repeat.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 9th, 2020 at 1:04:29 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.




I'm not saying that about this guy in this instance - I really don't know
but the reality is there are gamblers all over the web on different boards making outrageous claims of winning of all sorts

it's really sad because the tru pros like yourself would like to discuss things realistically with others who have skills

but then you get lumped into this category of gamblers claiming wins on these web boards and that is a bad category to be in

I've made the mistake before but I will 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 post my results for any length of time

I don't want to be lumped in together with these buffoons
𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘮 - 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮.........Edgar Allan Poe
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 9th, 2020 at 1:12:18 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I'm not saying that about this guy in this instance - I really don't know
but the reality is there are gamblers all over the web on different boards making outrageous claims of winning of all sorts

it's really sad because the tru pros like yourself would like discuss things realistically with others who have skills

but then you get lumped into this category of gamblers claiming wins on these web boards and that is a bad category to be in

I've made the mistake before but I will never again post my results for any length of time

I don't want to be lumped in together with these buffoons

I'm skeptical when it comes to guys that claim they can beat horses and handicap Sports. Especially, anyone that's making money via touting their pics, or it seems like they have some type of agenda. I do believe there are people that can do both with an advantage. With a few rare exceptions, those people aren't really touting what they're doing, they just do it and make the money.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ace2
Ace2
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May 9th, 2020 at 1:14:46 PM permalink
The question is how much of an advantage an expert horse picker can have over the other bettors. I imagine much more than an expert NFL picker but I have no idea how much. I think Iíd call BS on anyone claiming NFL results more than 4 SDs above expectations
Itís all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 9th, 2020 at 1:20:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm skeptical when it comes to guys that claim they can beat horses and handicap Sports.



I'm skeptical of every gambler making claims of winning for significant lengths of time except for BJ and machine APs
at least with horses and sports the odds only represent an 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 of the public so its definitely possible

its really a ridiculous situation
it makes me want to puke and stop posting here and elsewhere on gambling boards

but I have some interest in what's being said so I don't stop
whatever
𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘮 - 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮.........Edgar Allan Poe

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