Coronavirus math
Now there’s a question worthy of a WOV poll.Quote: billryanWould you really risk your life for money like that?
Quote: billryanWould you really risk your life for money like that?
We risk our lives every day. The question is how much risk would you accept for that amount of money.
Quote: DRichWe risk our lives every day. The question is how much risk would you accept for that amount of money.
Yeah Everytime we eat lunch we risk choking so it's about the same as intentionally getting infected with Covid-19
Quote: darkozYeah Everytime we eat lunch we risk choking so it's about the same as intentionally getting infected with Covid-19
It is actually the same. Cost-Benefit analysis.
Quote: billryanWould you really risk your life for money like that?
For a 99% chance at one billion dollars? Absolutely. I dunno where my cutoff would be though. Maybe 9 of 10? Maybe less. I'm not terribly happy with my current life anyway.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/new-coronavirus-spread-isnt-the-feared-second-wave–its-still-the-first-researchers-say/ar-BB15oFuB?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds
American media has been way too quick to add "second wave" to various headlines the last few days. If something hasn't left or seriously tamped down for a month or two, it's still a first wave. Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Tennessee, the Carolinas -- all first wave, delayed and held in check by lockdowns. Governors have been trying to impose "second wave" rhetoric to explain away why they eased regulations when the first wave hadn't even hit its stride. Better to say you opened up after the first wave than during, eh?
Now it'll start to snowball.
Folks, the U.S. response has been a truly proverbial unmitigated disaster. And it'll get worse. Buckle up.
Quote: DRichWe risk our lives every day. The question is how much risk would you accept for that amount of money.
No, the question should be how much pain am I willing to put my loved ones through. I lost my father at a relatively young age and certainly would want a few more years with him instead of a billion dollars.
While I am not surprised so many addicts are willing to risk their lives for free, I am surprised how little they seem to care about their loved ones.
The head of Banner states that all nine of this one type of specialty machines they have are in use. The Governor says the state has a surplus of these machines but won't say how many they have or where they are. He produces letters from two other hospital groups stating they currently have no shortages of beds.
Gov. goes on to say that the national media has got it wrong, that the new cases are only because he is testing more, and that the increase in hospitalizations and deaths are a sign that his policies are working.
Quote: billryan
While I am not surprised so many addicts are willing to risk their lives for free, I am surprised how little they seem to care about their loved ones.
Not everyone has loved ones.
374 ICU beds immediately available, 1,481 total.
Quote: DRichNot everyone has loved ones.
That is a shame. I hope they have a dog.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/man-barely-survives-covid-19-only-be-hit-11-million-hospital-bill
From the report, here's a small taste of the mounting costs:
Intensive care unit room per day: $9,736
42 days of intensive care room having to be "sealed" over virus contamination fears: a total of $408,912
29 days on a ventilator: $2,835 per day, totaling $82,215
2 days where a medical team implemented multiple emergency interventions: $100,000
Total bill: $1,122,501.04
All the "open it back up, f*** masks and social distancing" people should be the ones paying for it.Quote: ChumpChangeMan Barely Survives COVID-19 Only To Be Hit With $1.1 Million Hospital Bill | Zero Hedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/man-barely-survives-covid-19-only-be-hit-11-million-hospital-bill
From the report, here's a small taste of the mounting costs:
Intensive care unit room per day: $9,736
42 days of intensive care room having to be "sealed" over virus contamination fears: a total of $408,912
29 days on a ventilator: $2,835 per day, totaling $82,215
2 days where a medical team implemented multiple emergency interventions: $100,000
Total bill: $1,122,501.04
Quote: AxelWolfAll the "open it back up, f*** masks and social distancing" people should be the ones paying for it.
Why?
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/502672-cuomo-threatens-to-reverse-localities-reopening-singling-out-manhattan#.XuaS_AU-3kY.twitter
Don’t lift lockdown until contact tracing works, WHO tells Boris Johnson.
I agree with billing China.Quote: mcallister3200Just bill it to China, maybe they’ll buy some soybeans and give us a good deal on some cheap Walmart stuff people don’t really need anyway.
I agree with billing China.Quote: mcallister3200Just bill it to China, maybe they’ll buy some soybeans and give us a good deal on some cheap Walmart stuff people don’t really need anyway.
Because the people who are willing to do all those things, including staying home shouldn't be footing the bill for the people who aren't.Quote: AZDuffmanWhy?
Quote: AxelWolfBecause the people who are willing to do all those things, including staying home shouldn't be footing the bill for the people who aren't.
I still don't get it. But by that logic should the people who want to hide out at home pay for the destroyed businesses and laid off people that the shutdown caused?
Quote: AZDuffmanI still don't get it. But by that logic should the people who want to hide out at home pay for the destroyed businesses and laid off people that the shutdown caused?
No, the people at home are owed a stipend for saving the health and lives of those laid off workers
If it was so bad they should have gotten an essential job like at a meat packing plant.
Oh, wait sorry they would have probably died their too
Quote: darkozNo, the people at home are owed a stipend for saving the health and lives of those laid off workers
If it was so bad they should have gotten an essential job like at a meat packing plant.
Oh, wait sorry they would have probably died their too
Sitting at home like a lump is "saving lives?"
Not sure how to break this to you, but even when a bug is going around life goes on. Work needs to be done. As to dying, when your number is up your number is up.
Opening the economy is simply positive EV.
Quote: AZDuffmanSitting at home like a lump is "saving lives?"
Not sure how to break this to you, but even when a bug is going around life goes on. Work needs to be done. As to dying, when your number is up your number is up.
Opening the economy is simply positive EV.
I think you meant death goes on.
Enjoy the pandemic.
NY now has less daily death from Coronavirus than any state in the US.
We got that through a shutdown.
NY'ers aren't whining about it.
Hopefully we haven't ruined that work by having all these protests. That is a big fear.
118,000 dead in four months. I know you said no amount of death means anything to you so the numbers don't matter. Don't even understand why you promote the 1% death rate
You seem to imply if Covid-19 had a 100% death rate you would be for opening the economy and no masks.
Correct?
Quote: darkozI think you meant death goes on.
Enjoy the pandemic.
NY now has less daily death from Coronavirus than any state in the US.
We got that through a shutdown.
NY'ers aren't whining about it.
Hopefully we haven't ruined that work by having all these protests. That is a big fear.
118,000 dead in four months. I know you said no amount of death means anything to you so the numbers don't matter. Don't even understand why you promote the 1% death rate
You seem to imply if Covid-19 had a 100% death rate you would be for opening the economy and no masks.
Correct?
If it had a 100% death rate no reason to shut down as humans would die out within a year no matter what.
Life has a 100% death rate.
See, the reactions to the protests show no need for lockdowns. And they continue do show this.
I am not quite sure how you can credit the lockdowns when NYS had the highest death rate during the lockdown. Perhaps there is just a curve and that is that,
Quote: AZDuffmanIf it had a 100% death rate no reason to shut down as humans would die out within a year no matter what.
Life has a 100% death rate.
See, the reactions to the protests show no need for lockdowns. And they continue do show this.
I am not quite sure how you can credit the lockdowns when NYS had the highest death rate during the lockdown. Perhaps there is just a curve and that is that,
Unbelievable statements from you.
The lockdown was because we had the highest death rate in the country. Not the other way around.
I know you understand cause and effect. Why do you try switching stuff around?
Lol, and if it was a 100% death rate then the lockdowns would save the world.
You do understand a 100% death rate doesn't mean the whole world dies. It means 100% of the people who contract the virus dies
Quote: darkozUnbelievable statements from you.
The lockdown was because we had the highest death rate in the country. Not the other way around.
I know you understand cause and effect. Why do you try switching stuff around?
Lol, and if it was a 100% death rate then the lockdowns would save the world.
You do understand a 100% death rate doesn't mean the whole world dies. It means 100% of the people who contract the virus dies
NYS was one of the tightest lockdown states and still had the most deaths. Lockdown did not work.
Eventually 100% of the people would get it because if everyone locked down the world would starve to death.
The lockdowns were supposed to be for a fer weeks. Going on 100 days. With that kind of record they are not working. Time to end them. Small chance of it working against the large chance of a depression. Opening up is the AP move.
Quote: AZDuffmanNYS was one of the tightest lockdown states and still had the most deaths. Lockdown did not work.
LOL!!!!! Tightest lockdown state?
Mass transit jammed.
Dry cleaners open.
Take out pizza "essential"
COVID-19 patients sent back to nursing homes.
Liquor stores open.
Bottle return places open.
Accountants essential.
Bill collectors essential.
NYC parks packed.
Need an Uber? OK.
We use the word 'lockdown' far too freely....
Quote: AZDuffmanNYS was one of the tightest lockdown states and still had the most deaths. Lockdown did not work.
Eventually 100% of the people would get it because if everyone locked down the world would starve to death.
The lockdowns were supposed to be for a fer weeks. Going on 100 days. With that kind of record they are not working. Time to end them. Small chance of it working against the large chance of a depression. Opening up is the AP move.
Lockdown DID work.
We now have lowest death rate in country while many other states are rising many which opened too early.
My prediction. Many states are going to be on lockdown again by September barring a medical breakthrough. The death rate is just going to keep climbing and climbing exponentially
You can scream and holler about it but it's coming
Quote: darkozLockdown DID work.
We now have lowest death rate in country while many other states are rising many which opened too early.
My prediction. Many states are going to be on lockdown again by September barring a medical breakthrough. The death rate is just going to keep climbing and climbing exponentially
You can scream and holler about it but it's coming
And you can scream and holler but the lockdowns are making no difference. We cannot keep it up, it will cause a depression, which is a far worse thing.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe lockdowns were supposed to be for a fer weeks.
Where was that stated?
Quote: rxwineWhere was that stated?
We were supposed to reopen at Easter.
Quote: DeMangoWe were supposed to reopen at Easter.
That didn't answer the question.
Where was it stated.
I heard we were reopening when the curve was turned so we had less deaths and impact on the overcrowded hospitals.
who would put s stupid deadline on that?
Please point to source that said reopening at Easter dated from the beginning of the shutdown
for argument's sake, let's assume, social distancing, hand washing and mask-wearing helps. I really have no clue if that really makes a difference or not. That's the protocol I'm following when I go out to casinos and other businesses.Quote: AZDuffmanI still don't get it.
If other people refuse to practice hand washing, social distancing and mask-wearing it hinders me from going out since other people don't seem to respect your space, wear masks and practice hand sanitizing. Therefore it increases my chance of getting infected.
For instance, I'm sitting in the casino and some scruffy looking dude not wearing a mask sits directly next to me asking if he can borrow a dollar. On another occasion I'm paying the parking meter and a group of about 5 non mask-wearing people all decided to stop 2 feet from me to ask directions. I've been to the same few casinos a bunch of times now and not once have I seen them sanitizing any other machines whatsoever. I still haven't noticed anyone using the hand sanitizer stations and very few people are wearing masks.
New York State is running between 60 and 80 new virus deaths a day.--ny state Montana has a pandemic total of 19 virus deaths. -state of montanaQuote: darkozLockdown DID work. We now have lowest death rate in country while many other states are rising many which opened too early.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-easter.htmlQuote: darkozThat didn't answer the question. Where was it stated. I heard we were reopening when the curve was turned so we had less deaths and impact on the overcrowded hospitals. who would put s stupid deadline on that? Please point to source that said reopening at Easter dated from the beginning of the shutdown
Quote: SanchoPanzaNew York State is running between 60 and 80 new virus deaths a day.--ny state Montana has a pandemic total of 19 virus deaths. -state of montana
Lol, a few pages ago percentage of population mattered. Everyone down my throat that you had to go by percentage of population.
My how we change up our arguments just to win a debate
Quote: SanchoPanzahttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-easter.html
Yes, I was aware of his statement but didn't want to get political.
I have changed the rest of this post 4 times because I can't figure out how to answer you fully without violating political rules of the forum.
You will just have to use a different source or bring this over to a different forum
Quote: darkozThat didn't answer the question.
Where was it stated.
I heard we were reopening when the curve was turned so we had less deaths and impact on the overcrowded hospitals.
who would put s stupid deadline on that?
Please point to source that said reopening at Easter dated from the beginning of the shutdown
Nothing said it was going to be months and months. Everything indicated we needed just a few weeks to "flatten the curve." In fact. I remember sources saying it would not even lower the infection rate all that much, just spread it out over a longer period of time.
No matter what you remember the point is we cannot stay shut down in hopes of some miracle cure. We have to open up as normal and get back to life. A depression will be far worse than the pandemic. Not when the survival rate is >99%.
Quote: AxelWolffor argument's sake, let's assume, social distancing, hand washing and mask-wearing helps. I really have no clue if that really makes a difference or not. That's the protocol I'm following when I go out to casinos and other businesses.
If other people refuse to practice hand washing, social distancing and mask-wearing it hinders me from going out since other people don't seem to respect your space, wear masks and practice hand sanitizing. Therefore it increases my chance of getting infected.
For instance, I'm sitting in the casino and some scruffy looking dude not wearing a mask sits directly next to me asking if he can borrow a dollar. On another occasion I'm paying the parking meter and a group of about 5 non mask-wearing people all decided to stop 2 feet from me to ask directions. I've been to the same few casinos a bunch of times now and not once have I seen them sanitizing any other machines whatsoever. I still haven't noticed anyone using the hand sanitizer stations and very few people are wearing masks.
Sounds like you need to stay home then.
Just got an e-mail from Best Buy that they are reopening today based on disease spread and location.
Quote: ChumpChangeI can guarantee schools will be shut down 3 to 4 weeks after they open, if not sooner.
Just got an e-mail from Best Buy that they are reopening today based on disease spread and location.
That one is hard to say. Parents are getting tired of being the teacher as they pay the same property taxes. Though I am all for more home schooling some parents have to work and cannot do it.
Some of us are not "everyone." And people who don't like answers shouldn't ask insistent questions, especially when they rarely have sources for claims.Quote: darkozQuote: SanchoPanzaNew York State is running between 60 and 80 new virus deaths a day.--ny state Montana has a pandemic total of 19 virus deaths. -state of montana
Lol, a few pages ago percentage of population mattered. Everyone down my throat that you had to go by percentage of population.
My how we change up our arguments just to win a debate
Quote: SanchoPanzaSome of us are not "everyone." And people who don't like answers shouldn't ask insistent questions, especially when they rarely have sources for claims.Quote: darkozQuote: SanchoPanzaNew York State is running between 60 and 80 new virus deaths a day.--ny state Montana has a pandemic total of 19 virus deaths. -state of montana
Lol, a few pages ago percentage of population mattered. Everyone down my throat that you had to go by percentage of population.
My how we change up our arguments just to win a debate
I love answers. Anyone following me on this forum knows that.
You answered my post with a link to statements made by Trump. I said I can't answer that due to this forum a rules against politics.
Don't misconstrue my refusal to correspond about the link as not liking answers
Yeah, that way the businesses can die a slower more painful death.Quote: AZDuffmanSounds like you need to stay home then.
It's all day-to-day "thoughts and prayers" while chucking-and-ducking responsibility. If people weren't dying left and right, it'd be hilarious. American hubris and lack of discipline at its finest.
Everything is right on schedule, as I mention in:
Link redacted by management
As outbreaks are identified within a business, it will (and many have) shutdown.
The economy was and is going to get crushed along the way.
AZ will be a critical test of our will to remain open. At its current hospitalization rate there will be makeshift ICU facilities erected yet unlike New York, there will be far fewer health professionals to draw from as many other states are dealing with their own outbreak. Should this happen, the sensible decision would be to shut the affected cities and counties down. The death rate not only from Covid but any other typically survivable hospital visit has to rise given lack of doctors and nurses.
A nationwide shutdown could have worked had we emerged from it with a universal plan including testing, tracing, full PPE, and shutdowns of locations as necessary. Given how we bungled that, many places did not need to be shut down as the outbreak had not spread and/or was still manageable.
Curiously- back to Covid math: With a given city, zip code population of X size, a R0 rate of Y, and Z active cases over the time frame a person is contagious: how likely is one to encounter an infected person within a group of N individuals? Not contract the virus, just encounter? As chance to contract involves where the encounter occurred, duration, and whether social distancing and or masks were used.
I think the above formula would be useful in determining risk for a certain activity and a baseline could be determined?
Obviously as the infection has taken root in most areas, our probability of encountering an infected person is substantially higher than it was pre- lock down, and increasing.
