Coronavirus math
Quote: michael99000How many otherwise avoidable additional deaths are you ok with in exchange for you and your wife to get out and enjoy your life a month or two sooner? You may be cutting 10-15 years off the life of a 70 year old so you can have a good summer
If someone in your family ended up being one of those deaths , would you still say it was a worthy sacrifice so the guy who owns the diner down the street could open back up and catch up on his rent ?
If you are not infected what is the harm in going outside and leading a normal life? To the second paragraph I will ask, are YOU willing to lose YOUR house and be homeless just so you can feel safe from infection? It is easy to call business owners "greedy" for wanting to open when you are not giving up anything personally. It is another to see your life destroyed because of irrational fear of opening things back up.
Let me ask your second paragraph a different way. If someone in your family ended up homeless on the street because they could find no work would you still say it was worth it because we had to prevent a few possible people from catching it?
Quote: AZDuffmanIf you are not infected what is the harm in going outside and leading a normal life? To the second paragraph I will ask, are YOU willing to lose YOUR house and be homeless just so you can feel safe from infection? It is easy to call business owners "greedy" for wanting to open when you are not giving up anything personally. It is another to see your life destroyed because of irrational fear of opening things back up.
Let me ask your second paragraph a different way. If someone in your family ended up homeless on the street because they could find no work would you still say it was worth it because we had to prevent a few possible people from catching it?
My answer is yes it was worth it to save lives.
What's the point asking these questions.
The reverse question is If someone in your family went to work to avoid being homeless and contracted Covid-19 from a customer, brought it home to you and your older relatives who then went on ventilators, resulting in one of your family members dying and they gave it to a few people not related to you before they realized they were infected would you still say the paycheck was worth it?
I am sure you will say yes as well
Why do you think I want to justify bar crawls in the middle of the pandemic? Why do you think this site should debate religious topics?Quote: billryanDoes the truth hurt? How about you give me one reason why we should be having bar crawls in the middle of a pandemic? Why are bars allowed to open at 50% capacity but religious services are limited to ten people?
Quote: darkozMy answer is yes it was worth it to save lives.
What's the point asking these questions.
The reverse question is If someone in your family went to work to avoid being homeless and contracted Covid-19 from a customer, brought it home to you and your older relatives who then went on ventilators, resulting in one of your family members dying and they gave it to a few people not related to you before they realized they were infected would you still say the paycheck was worth it?
I am sure you will say yes as well
No, I would not say "yes." I am a realist. It is not worth a depression to "save lives." Because the lives "saved" will be balanced by those lost due to suicide, OD, bad health because of no income, etc.
The point of asking is because the people who want to "save lives" usually have the means to work from home or sit at home. They are not seeing their financial lives destroyed on a now dubious "lockdown" that should have ended six or more weeks ago.
It is easy to say you want to continue this when you live in a bubble and are not struggling. I want to help the people struggling to get back to work. I want life back to normal. I want the choice to live a normal life while those who want to live in fear can stay locked down, that means more seats left at the $10 21 table.
But so I am clear, you would accept some of your family becoming homeless on the street to keep the lockdown going? Just so I do not get it wrong.
Quote: billryanDoes the truth hurt? How about you give me one reason why we should be having bar crawls in the middle of a pandemic? Why are bars allowed to open at 50% capacity but religious services are limited to ten people?
One reason? Because people like to do so? Because each of those individuals, aware of the potential risk, decides that the benefit to them outweighs the risk?
I mean, seriously, this is a gambling based forum. People here ROUTINELY go into casinos to fill there lungs with cigarette smoke, sometimes from their own cancer stick, sometimes from the guys sitting next to them. To use your phraseology....
"Can you give me one reason we should allow people to smoke in casinos?" EVER! Same answer as to the bar crawls....
Quote: gamerfreakAll death is tragic.
I’ve unfortunately seen a lot of death in my late teens-mid 20’s as a firefighter/EMT. Whatever the most tragic/horrific death you can imagine, I have probably seen something close. Particularly when it came to motor vehicle accidents, which were frequent.
A few years of this eventually wore on my mental health. For a while I would not get in a car for more than a 10-15 minute drive, and avoided highways completely. If someone else was driving I had to be heavily medicated.
I am not sure exactly why, but I got over it at some point. Zero risk does not exist in anything, everyone dies eventually. At some point you have to accept some amount of risk, sometimes even significant risk, when it is worth the benefit. Driving is the best example of this, which is why I bring it up in every COVID discussion.
We don’t shut down all roads, because the 50k killed and hundreds of thousands permanently disfigured each year is worth the benefit brought by motor vehicle travel.
I am not saying a quarantine shouldn’t have happened at all. But unless you are suggesting it go on for years, but at some point the impact of prohibiting commerce in anything deemed non-essential Is way, way worse than the loss of life by continuing this type of lockdown.
All death is NOT tragic. Good friend has father and uncle who are identical twins, both 95. Both fully with it, somewhat limited physically due to arthritis, but able to enjoy life. Until a couple of months ago, when the uncle passed away (not COVID related) after a very brief illness. happened pretty much right after a 95th Birthday celebration for the two of them with lots of family. He had a great life. The two twins were surgeons, and actually started the kidney transplant program here in Buffalo. No one would refer to his death as tragic.
The deaths you saw in the field as an EMT were mostly tragic. As are many of the COVID-19 deaths.
I agree 100% with your last paragraph.
Quote: AZDuffman
But so I am clear, you would accept some of your family becoming homeless on the street to keep the lockdown going? Just so I do not get it wrong.
I like the question. But the answer you will get, which I hope doesn't get me suspended, is.... "The government will provide you with the support so you will not be homeless."
I'm one of the 'privileged', in that I am now on a pension so do not have to go to work. But I am also in a high risk group, so I feel my stance is not without some personal risk as well. I am willing to take the risks in order to support my bartender who is young and low risk. And my massage therapist. And my waiter. And my..... everyone....
Quote: SOOPOOI like the question. But the answer you will get, which I hope doesn't get me suspended, is.... "The government will provide you with the support so you will not be homeless."
I expect that or a version of it to be the answer, which I will not accept as it is not valid.
I am privileged as well. In the end if the stock market rebounds well I may make six figures off this. I am working from home. But I care about the guy down the street with the coffee house and the brew pub across the street from him and the barber shop down the street from him.
Easy to support a lockdown for the people doing well. But where is the compassion?
Quote: AZDuffmanI expect that or a version of it to be the answer, which I will not accept as it is not valid.
I am privileged as well. In the end if the stock market rebounds well I may make six figures off this. I am working from home. But I care about the guy down the street with the coffee house and the brew pub across the street from him and the barber shop down the street from him.
Easy to support a lockdown for the people doing well. But where is the compassion?
Exactly. I would like to join AZDuffman in his support for basic guaranteed income. It's a great idea. Other countries have ameliorated virus economic effects via basic guaranteed income. It seems to be a winning idea. Since there is no guarantee life going forward won't be an ongoing series of pandemics, some structural changes may be the way to go about business.
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, I would not say "yes." I am a realist. It is not worth a depression to "save lives." Because the lives "saved" will be balanced by those lost due to suicide, OD, bad health because of no income, etc.
The point of asking is because the people who want to "save lives" usually have the means to work from home or sit at home. They are not seeing their financial lives destroyed on a now dubious "lockdown" that should have ended six or more weeks ago.
It is easy to say you want to continue this when you live in a bubble and are not struggling. I want to help the people struggling to get back to work. I want life back to normal. I want the choice to live a normal life while those who want to live in fear can stay locked down, that means more seats left at the $10 21 table.
But so I am clear, you would accept some of your family becoming homeless on the street to keep the lockdown going? Just so I do not get it wrong.
To be clear I live in NYC.
There is nothing dubious about Covid-19 here.
For two weeks the ambulance sirens were a constant reminder of the situation.
I wore no mask and refused early requests by family to stay at home as they were all very concerned about my ex who is undergoing chemo for her third round of cancer this month. Neither of my children wanted to visit me and bring something home to Mama
Then my AP gambling partner of eight years died of covid-19.
Since that death one of my main AP workers has battled and survived it but lost his Aunt to it
Another close friend has had three family members battle but survive
Another friend who I haven't heard from in years called distraught because he lost three family members in a week.
I was as selfish as all middle America is now. I believed in my Superman immunity (a weird human trait of believing you yourself are invincible even while others die around you) and went for the money. Technically I Haven't caught Covid-19 so maybe I am Superman immune. But really I realize I am just lucky.
You see I had meetings set up with those AP friends for the following week at the casinos. Both the one who died and the one who beat it but lost his aunt. Those meetings didn't happen because of the lockdown. I lost a lot of money when the lockdown occurred.
But I didn't contract Covid-19. And that winds through my head all the time.
Kinda puts it in a different perspective now for me.
So to answer your question directly, yes I wish my AP friend was currently homeless from an early intervention shutdown rather than gone from my life as he currently is. I am sure I would not feel that way if he hadn't died. I would be arguing what a disservice this shutdown was to leave him homeless.
But he isn't homeless. He's dead. That 20/20 hindsight is a mofo.
Quote: redietzExactly. I would like to join AZDuffman in his support for basic guaranteed income. It's a great idea. Other countries have ameliorated virus economic effects via basic guaranteed income. It seems to be a winning idea. Since there is no guarantee life going forward won't be an ongoing series of pandemics, some structural changes may be the way to go about business.
You should be suspended. AZ of course does not support UBI. He supports the rights of the pub owner and coffee shop owner to run their business and make a living. It is quite a personal insult to state someone supports UBI who is as close to 100% against it as you can be. I can find a few hundred AZ posts opposed to UBI.
Quote: SOOPOOYou should be suspended. AZ of course does not support UBI. He supports the rights of the pub owner and coffee shop owner to run their business and make a living. It is quite a personal insult to state someone supports UBI who is as close to 100% against it as you can be. I can find a few hundred AZ posts opposed to UBI.
I will only reply to thank you and let management decide on if this is suspension worthy. Insult of misconstruction of what someone else has as a known position.
Quote: darkozTo be clear I live in NYC.
There is nothing dubious about Covid-19 here.
For two weeks the ambulance sirens were a constant reminder of the situation.
I wore no mask and refused early requests by family to stay at home as they were all very concerned about my ex who is undergoing chemo for her third round of cancer this month. Neither of my children wanted to visit me and bring something home to Mama
Then my AP gambling partner of eight years died of covid-19.
Since that death one of my main AP workers has battled and survived it but lost his Aunt to it
Another close friend has had three family members battle but survive
Another friend who I haven't heard from in years called distraught because he lost three family members in a week.
I was as selfish as all middle America is now. I believed in my Superman immunity (a weird human trait of believing you yourself are invincible even while others die around you) and went for the money. Technically I Haven't caught Covid-19 so maybe I am Superman immune. But really I realize I am just lucky.
You see I had meetings set up with those AP friends for the following week at the casinos. Both the one who died and the one who beat it but lost his aunt. Those meetings didn't happen because of the lockdown. I lost a lot of money when the lockdown occurred.
But I didn't contract Covid-19. And that winds through my head all the time.
Kinda puts it in a different perspective now for me.
So to answer your question directly, yes I wish my AP friend was currently homeless from an early intervention shutdown rather than gone from my life as he currently is. I am sure I would not feel that way if he hadn't died. I would be arguing what a disservice this shutdown was to leave him homeless.
But he isn't homeless. He's dead. That 20/20 hindsight is a mofo.
Here's the thing. You are still free to stay home. You are free to bug out. There have to be hotels operating far enough out but near enough to be close. Albany would be a logical choice, or the Poconos area. But no reason that other areas need to remain locked down when they have low threat levels.
Quote: AZDuffmanHere's the thing. You are still free to stay home. You are free to bug out. There have to be hotels operating far enough out but near enough to be close. Albany would be a logical choice, or the Poconos area. But no reason that other areas need to remain locked down when they have low threat levels.
Why do I feel like you didn't even read my post!
I talk about close ones who died from Covid-19 and you answer I am free to go to Albany six hours away?
NM. I'm kinda done. You are free to live. And free to contact covid-19 and get sick or die or give it to your loved ones.
Ultimately that seems to be your argument.
You even stated you have the money to stay home. No income isn't affecting you. You are fighting for the low wage barber who can't give you a haircut. The low wage business owner who you really could not care less about if he dies from Covid-19 as long as he is working!
Got it!
Quote: SOOPOOOne reason? Because people like to do so? Because each of those individuals, aware of the potential risk, decides that the benefit to them outweighs the risk?
....
“They decided that the benefit to THEMSELVES outweighs the risk..interesting “
Did the families that those “Back to normal life “ people go home to also decide that the benefit outweighs the risk ?
Did all the other people who those “back to normal life” people will come into contact with or close proximity to also decide they want the risk ?
You make all your arguments as though only the person who decided to go out and get back to living his normal life is taking a chance. Essential workers are put in greater jeopardy by those with your attitude towards risk/benefit.
You may think it’s worth it to go to a bar crawl or a casino or wherever now , but the cashier at your grocery store doesn’t necessarily want the added risk. They are already taking on enough risk just by dealing with a store full of people who made their best efforts to be careful
Quote: michael99000“They decided that the benefit to THEMSELVES outweighs the risk..interesting “
Did the families that those “Back to normal life “ people go home to also decide that the benefit outweighs the risk ?
Did all the other people who those “back to normal life” people will come into contact with or close proximity to also decide they want the risk ?
You make all your arguments as though only the person who decided to go out and get back to living his normal life is taking a chance. Essential workers are put in greater jeopardy by those with your attitude towards risk/benefit.
You may think it’s worth it to go to a bar crawl or a casino or wherever now , but the cashier at your grocery store doesn’t necessarily want the added risk. They are already taking on enough risk just by dealing with a store full of people who made their best efforts to be careful
You must be one of those hippie types who thinks the public health is more important than people being inconvenienced. How quaint.
Quote: darkozWhy do I feel like you didn't even read my post!
I talk about close ones who died from Covid-19 and you answer I am free to go to Albany six hours away?
Six hours? Quit taking the Taconic and get on the Thruway. I did Albany to Comack in about 5. But yes, that is what I am telling you to do. Should be no big deal.
Quote:NM. I'm kinda done. You are free to live. And free to contact covid-19 and get sick or die or give it to your loved ones.
Ultimately that seems to be your argument.
You even stated you have the money to stay home. No income isn't affecting you. You are fighting for the low wage barber who can't give you a haircut. The low wage business owner who you really could not care less about if he dies from Covid-19 as long as he is working!
Got it!
You had better believe I am fighting for the barber or "low wage business owner." You are saying to go let them eat cake. Watch their business go under. I want these people to thrive. You want to have everyone stay home because........ Well, I do not know why. Look at FL and GA. They have opened up and the word has not ended. They are doing just fine.
It is crazy that we are still shut down in so many places. Time to get America back to work. As I said before, if you are afraid go to Albany and get a hotel room. Avoid the Best Western on Wold Rd. But head on up. Or go to Utica, nobody goes to Utica. You will be "safe." May your funds hold up until there is no risk in going out. Thought that will be never.
Time to open up. I care about the little guy who is struggling. Do you?
Quote: SOOPOO
"Can you give me one reason we should allow people to smoke in casinos?" EVER! Same answer as to the bar crawls....
This finally made me realize part of the problem with the argument.
Remember non-smokers don't want to stay home. They want their own place to gamble free of smoke.
So, with this virus we're in the same position, kind of. Each side is being told they can F off and stay home if they don't like the conditions being set.
Quote: rxwine
So, with this virus we're in the same position, kind of. Each side is being told they can F off and stay home if they don't like the conditions being set.
This only works if the two sides completely avoid one another in every aspect of life.
Unfortunately front line and essential workers don’t have the luxury of picking and choosing who they interact with.
Those who’ve deemed it worth the risk now to get out and not restrict themselves basically force everyone they go near to take the same risk, whether they wanted to or not.
Quote: AZDuffmanSix hours? Quit taking the Taconic and get on the Thruway. I did Albany to Comack in about 5. But yes, that is what I am telling you to do. Should be no big deal.
You had better believe I am fighting for the barber or "low wage business owner." You are saying to go let them eat cake. Watch their business go under. I want these people to thrive. You want to have everyone stay home because........ Well, I do not know why. Look at FL and GA. They have opened up and the word has not ended. They are doing just fine.
It is crazy that we are still shut down in so many places. Time to get America back to work. As I said before, if you are afraid go to Albany and get a hotel room. Avoid the Best Western on Wold Rd. But head on up. Or go to Utica, nobody goes to Utica. You will be "safe." May your funds hold up until there is no risk in going out. Thought that will be never.
Time to open up. I care about the little guy who is struggling. Do you?
No you don't care about the little guy struggling.
You don't care if he dies of Coronavirus while working
It's easy to tell others to stay home when you have enough cash to last through this pandemic?
It's just as easy to tell people to give their lives while you stay home and don't have to risk your own health
Quote: darkozNo you don't care about the little guy struggling.
You don't care if he dies of Coronavirus while working
Oh, please. IF he catches it he has a 1 in 200 chance of dying. He has a less than 50/50 chance of even catching it. You act as though going to work is a death sentence, it is not. There is a reason most people want to open up, and the reason is the curve has been flattened and it is time to get back to normal.
Quote:It's easy to tell others to stay home when you have enough cash to last through this pandemic?
It's just as easy to tell people to give their lives while you stay home and don't have to risk your own health
See above. If they want to stay away from work and end up homeless let them. Let the rest go back to work. Perhaps you need to check the chances of an earlier death among the unemployed. That must be subtracted from expected virus deaths.
The 1918 flu was worse than this, people went on with their lives. It is time to quit fooling around and get back to work.
Quote: AZDuffmanOh, please. IF he catches it he has a 1 in 200 chance of dying. He has a less than 50/50 chance of even catching it. You act as though going to work is a death sentence, it is not. There is a reason most people want to open up, and the reason is the curve has been flattened and it is time to get back to normal.
See above. If they want to stay away from work and end up homeless let them. Let the rest go back to work. Perhaps you need to check the chances of an earlier death among the unemployed. That must be subtracted from expected virus deaths.
The 1918 flu was worse than this, people went on with their lives. It is time to quit fooling around and get back to work.
Anyone who dies cause their unemployed is stupid. The world is probably better off without them.
Just don't give me the virus cause of their stupidity (people in general not you)
Quote: darkozAnyone who dies cause their unemployed is stupid. The world is probably better off without them.
Just don't give me the virus cause of their stupidity (people in general not you)
Serious?
Look at it from an AP standpoint. Staying home and what are the chances your business fails or you go bankrupt vs. what are the chances you get sick and die?
The later is less than 1 in 200. The first is probably far more.
Meanwhile I am weighing driving 3 hours each way for a haircut and maybe get some White Castle this Saturday as Ohio seems to be opening. Kind of like when a USSR citizen traveled far to Moscow to get basic necessities,
Quote: AZDuffmanSerious?
Look at it from an AP standpoint. Staying home and what are the chances your business fails or you go bankrupt vs. what are the chances you get sick and die?
The later is less than 1 in 200. The first is probably far more.
Meanwhile I am weighing driving 3 hours each way for a haircut and maybe get some White Castle this Saturday as Ohio seems to be opening. Kind of like when a USSR citizen traveled far to Moscow to get basic necessities,
An AP weighs the risks to reward.
200 in one chance of dying for a low-wage paycheck doesn't sound like any play I want to make
When it comes to my life I want better odds than that
Quote: darkozAn AP weighs the risks to reward.
200 in one chance of dying for a low-wage paycheck doesn't sound like any play I want to make
When it comes to my life I want better odds than that
That is 1 in 200 *IF* you catch it.
It is lower if you are under age 65 or so.
But your chances of catching it are less than 50/50.
You have higher chances of dying from other things.
In life you have to take your chances and make things happen. 1 in 500 chance of dying is better than hiding in fear in your house as you go bankrupt.
Quote: AZDuffmanThat is 1 in 200 *IF* you catch it.
It is lower if you are under age 65 or so.
But your chances of catching it are less than 50/50.
You have higher chances of dying from other things.
In life you have to take your chances and make things happen. 1 in 500 chance of dying is better than hiding in fear in your house as you go bankrupt.
Ugghhhh.
50/50 odds catching it.
I won't even play roulette at those odds.
Go to a casino that every hour selected a random cardholder to die?
How about if random guests got to take a horrific disease back to their loved ones? Use your imagination on that last one if it doesn't apply to your real world.
Quote: billryanWould you attend a ballgame if you knew ten random people would die slow and painful deaths?
Go to a casino that every hour selected a random cardholder to die?
How about if random guests got to take a horrific disease back to their loved ones? Use your imagination on that last one if it doesn't apply to your real world.
Except it isn't "random." Deaths are concentrated among the old and in nursing homes. I will absolutely take my chances when we open.
Quote: AZDuffmanExcept it isn't "random." Deaths are concentrated among the old and in nursing homes. I will absolutely take my chances when we open.
Would you be willing to have your appendix removed without anesthesia? Even though you have a really good chance of survival?
You see I don't want to be on a ventilator feeling like I am drowning for two weeks even if my chances are good at survival.
"There are worse things than death"
For me, Pass
Quote: AZDuffmanExcept it isn't "random." Deaths are concentrated among the old and in nursing homes. I will absolutely take my chances when we open.
NYPD has lost at least forty members. How many of them were old and in nursing homes. How many were infected by Yahoo's refusing to be inconvenienced by a pandemic?
Ignoring all those old movies who probably didn't want to live anyways, that still leaves over 20,000 dead.
Even the hands off Swedes in Stockholm estimated that only 7.3% them have antibodies by late April... it's just beginning, folks.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html
I'm just thankful this virus wasn't 5 to 10X more deadly, the world would even be more screwed.
Quote: billryanWould you attend a ballgame if you knew ten random people would die slow and painful deaths?
Go to a casino that every hour selected a random cardholder to die?
How about if random guests got to take a horrific disease back to their loved ones? Use your imagination on that last one if it doesn't apply to your real world.
Quote: darkozWould you be willing to have your appendix removed without anesthesia? Even though you have a really good chance of survival?
You see I don't want to be on a ventilator feeling like I am drowning for two weeks even if my chances are good at survival.
"There are worse things than death"
For me, Pass
The human brain is not very good at assessing risk.
Why do either of you drive or ride in a motor vehicle?
The lifetime odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1 in 106.
1 in 106!
And the “worse than death” scenario of not dying but eating from a tube for the rest of your life is even higher.
Even the worst case scenarios of Coronavirus do not come close to this.
Quote: gamerfreakThe human brain is not very good at assessing risk.
Why do either of you drive or ride in a motor vehicle?
The lifetime odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1 in 106.
1 in 106!
And the “worse than death” scenario of not dying but eating from a tube for the rest of your life is even higher.
Even the worst case scenarios of Coronavirus do not come close to this.
But of course the benefits of driving are significant. The odds of dying from a fall on that site is 1 in 111. Should we never elevate ourselves above a few feet to prevent this?
But for those not desperate for money, the benefit of staying home to avoid others to not catch Covid-19 is also quite significant right now.
Quote: AZDuffmanThat is 1 in 200 *IF* you catch it.
It is lower if you are under age 65 or so.
But your chances of catching it are less than 50/50.
You have higher chances of dying from other things.
In life you have to take your chances and make things happen. 1 in 500 chance of dying is better than hiding in fear in your house as you go bankrupt.
These numbers are completely wrong. Especially sad to see in a coronavirus math thread.
Real US numbers from yesterday:
Total confirmed cases: 1,615,060
Deaths: 96, 091
Percentage of deaths: 5.95% or 1 in 16.8 people
Recovered: approx 303,000
Leaving more than 1 million still sick.
Rough numbers widely reported:
Chance of infection requiring hospitalization : 20%, or 1 in 5.
Chance of hospitalization requiring ventilator: 5%.
Chance of dying after being placed on a ventilator : 50%.
I don't know whether you're bad at math or using weird statistics, but you sure are persistent with the misinformation. Make your case, fine, but use real numbers, for people to evaluate their real risk. Mine are from the CDC, the professionals in doing this.
Why do you need a haircut so badly? I can't believe people are freaking out over hair cut's, it's just hair. If I was a cosmetologist, I would practice some good old-fashioned price gouging and triple my prices.Quote: michael99000I need a haircut
I personally climbed high peaks in Peru and Ecuador knowing full well that the statistical odds of dying were significantly greater than 1 in 1000. And knowing if I became disabled on the mountain, that an alpine rescue team and (perhaps) helicopter pilot would be endangering their lives trying to save me. My actions created a non-zero statistical risk that others might die.
I had several moments when I was in imminent danger of dying and I had to react and behave quickly and correctly.
I had training (at the Mt Rainier Mountaineering School), I bought the right equipment and and got the right experience on lesser mountains and I knew what I was doing. But so too did most of the high-altitude mountaineers who died while climbing.
I have great memories of great experiences and those experiences changed me, probably for the better. I would do it again if I had the strength and vigor.
The point is: people can legitimately have different tolerances toward risk and different ways of trading off benefits vs risk. The people who sit at home in their underwear and fear-monger on social media will scoff at mountaineers and probably think "You idiots!" And I disagree.
Quote: beachbumbabsMine are from the CDC, the professionals in doing this.
This is not a rebuttal or “gotcha”, but something I have been thinking about and struggling with.
How can you trust an organization who has shown they have no problem lying to the face of the public?
For weeks at the beginning of this pandemic, and up until the peak, the CDC said time and time again that masks don’t work. No reason to wear a mask in public, you really shouldn’t do it.
And this was during a time where widespread usage of masks would have made the most impact.
I think I have lost all trust in the CDC after this.
Quote: gamerfreakThe human brain is not very good at assessing risk.
Why do either of you drive or ride in a motor vehicle?
The lifetime odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1 in 106.
1 in 106!
And the “worse than death” scenario of not dying but eating from a tube for the rest of your life is even higher.
Even the worst case scenarios of Coronavirus do not come close to this.
Over the course of a lifetime, what are your odds of dying?
What are the chances you will be in a car accident and bring a disease home to your loved ones or coworkers?
Driving is a tricky situation
The more time you spend on an interstate,, the higher your risk. So you would think going faster would reduce the risk by reducing the time on the interstate, but statistics show speed increases risk, so going slower will reduce risks, except that means you spend more time on the interstate which means increased risk.
I'm amazed that people have the common sense to come on out of the non-threatening rain but think it's a good idea to engage with strangers who can potentially kill them and theirs in order to be entertained.
Does it make sense to anyone that athletes compete before empty stadiums but fans flock to crowded bars to watch them.
I agree with you on that. However, and this question goes to Bill Ryan as well.... What are we supposed to do at this point(personally I don't care, keep it shut down, or open everything up)? How long do we stay shut down, and will that even work? I would have to think until there's a vaccine or something, it's all going to get spread around again. If play said hey you got to stay home for 6 months before we can basically eradicate this or be set up to stop it at The Source before it spreads, I'd be all for doing that.Quote: darkozWould you be willing to have your appendix removed without anesthesia? Even though you have a really good chance of survival?
You see I don't want to be on a ventilator feeling like I am drowning for two weeks even if my chances are good at survival.
"There are worse things than death"
For me, Pass
Quote: beachbumbabsThese numbers are completely wrong. Especially sad to see in a coronavirus math thread.
Real US numbers from yesterday:
Total confirmed cases: 1,615,060
Deaths: 96, 091
Percentage of deaths: 5.95% or 1 in 16.8 people
Recovered: approx 303,000
Leaving more than 1 million still sick.
The statistics about recoveries are worthless. There are no standard definitions of "recovered" -some states require two tests with negative results at least two weeks and four weeks after symptoms disappear. And there is simply no priority being given to having medical teams test for recovery weeks after a patient has no symptoms just so we can confirm and report recoveries. It is like this in many countries throughout the world, the "recovery" stats are hopelessly buggered.
And, "total confirmed cases" are now starting to include asymptomatic cases that test positive. We can all argue whether asymptomatic cases are good (herd immunity; almost everyone's gonna catch it eventually so having no symptoms is great news) or bad (risk of infecting high-risk persons, possibility of mysterious ailments after the virus has left your system. ) But lumping in asymptomatic cases confuses the interpretation of the statistics.
Most medical people agree that hospitalizations and deaths are the meaningful metrics. They are unambiguous, countable and not distorted by under-testing.
Quote: AxelWolfI agree with you on that. However, and this question goes to Bill Ryan as well.... What are we supposed to do at this point(personally I don't care, keep it shut down, or open everything up)? How long do we stay shut down, and will that even work? I would have to think until there's a vaccine or something it's all going to get spread around again. Someone said hey you got to stay home for 6 months before we can basically eradicate this or stop it at The Source before it spreads, I'd be all for doing that.
We are in the middle of a pandemic. Not the end of it, or even halfway through it. What we need to do ,as a society is adapt to the new reality and adjust our lifestyles. Would you go to a casino on a hurricane? Go get a tattoo in a blizzard?
This virus is the event our generation will be known for. Far too many want to wish it away and pretend it isn't out there.
What I am doing is examining each trip I might make and deciding if it really something I need to do. There is no food delivery available so I have to go shopping. That's every ten days or so. I have to go to the PO. once a week. I am skipping the gym, skipping my weekly counseling sessions, put off getting my dog groomed. I'm transitioning my store from retail to mail order/ consignment and consigning a lot of merchandise I'd previously sold myself. I'm reading more, watching more tv and organizing things. I'm hiking on the nearby nature trails and slowly building my labyrinth. It sucks that this is happening but it would suck a lot more if I infect someone because I too bored to stay away from possible carriers.
This last six weeks has shown me just how much time and energy is wasted on utter bs. If I survive this, I will come out a much better person. Never let a crisis go to waste.
Quote: AxelWolfI agree with you on that. However, and this question goes to Bill Ryan as well.... What are we supposed to do at this point(personally I don't care, keep it shut down, or open everything up)? How long do we stay shut down, and will that even work? I would have to think until there's a vaccine or something, it's all going to get spread around again. If play said hey you got to stay home for 6 months before we can basically eradicate this or be set up to stop it at The Source before it spreads, I'd be all for doing that.
I am actually all for reopening.
But responsibly.
Not while death totals and new cases are on the rise.
Not without good measures to protect others from infection including closed crowded areas like bars
Unfortunately I have done the research on the 1918 flu pandemic. It was the SECOND WAVE that was the deadliest by far. Tens of millions died more in the second wave than the first or third.
Only one city in the USA was spared significantly. San Francisco. That's because the mayor instituted heavy social distancing, and was villified until the pandemic ended when it became clear he saved so many lives.
So... Guess which city in the USA got better economically first after the pandemic? San Francisco which was spared the major death toll or the rest of the US which had to bury and recover from three quarters of a million dead?
Quote: billryanNYPD has lost at least forty members. How many of them were old and in nursing homes. How many were infected by Yahoo's refusing to be inconvenienced by a pandemic?
Ignoring all those old movies who probably didn't want to live anyways, that still leaves over 20,000 dead.
40 cops dead compared to how many in nursing homes dead?
Statistics need to have context.
Quote: AZDuffman40 cops dead compared to how many in nursing homes dead?
Statistics need to have context.
Yeah, I think the context is 40 dead police officers in NYC in two and a half months.
When has that happened in US history much less NYC?
Quote: darkozYeah, I think the context is 40 dead police officers in NYC in two and a half months.
When has that happened in US history much less NYC?
No, as I said the context is how many cops vs how many in nursing homes? "40 cops" is a "shock number." NYC is also the hottest area in the USA. NYC has also had some of the worst response to the situation of any part of the USA. Compound that with it just being a place a pandemic will run wild what with all the population density and you will have that. People with the means to leave have been bugging out.
Most of the rest of the USA does not have any real issues. Time to open up and let people live their lives and earn a living. Let those that want to stay inside forever do so. Just no unemployment for them, they have to find a way to earn from home.
On the other hand, it looks like things are getting back to normal as we had a mass shooting in Arizona and a terror related one in Texas.
Quote: billryanLast week nine states saw an increase in cases. This week the number jumped to seventeen.
On the other hand, it looks like things are getting back to normal as we had a mass shooting in Arizona and a terror related one in Texas.
If we keep having increases why are we still staying at home? Or are there more cases simply due to more testing?
Quote: AZDuffmanIf we keep having increases why are we still staying at home? Or are there more cases simply due to more testing?
There are more cases due to reopening
