Coronavirus math
Quote: tringlomaneQuote: gordonm888Vanderbilt Medical Center has reported that Tennessee is experiencing an anomalously low rate of hospitalizations (per confirmed case, I think.)
Tennessee
Confirmed Cases __________16,111
Hospitalizations _________1,363
Fatalities _____________264
Recovered___________ 8,336
Total Tested_____________283,924
I can think of a couple of possible reasons:
1. Fewer nursing homes with infection problems??
2. More confirmed cases in Tennessee tend to be in lower age groups??? (sorta the same as the first reason.)
3. Tennesseans have better over-all health???? (I think this is very unlikely.)
4. Less virulent mutation of Covid-19 in Tennessee?
Anyone who claims that this is a well-understood virus is fooling themselves.
*****************************************************
Also, Hamblen County, TN is the only county in the U.S. to have no covid-19 cases. The County mayor attributes that to the fact that they have no straight roads in Hamblen County - they are isolated.
You'd be right. As of Friday, there were 232 counties remaining with zero cases according to this.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5196441002
But the county Gordon claimed that was the only county in the US that had none apparently has 25!!!! cases so far with two deaths.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/tennessee-coronavirus-cases.amp.html
So has Gordon not checked the numbers since March or what? The first case in that county was announced on my 40th birthday, March 20th. Almost two months ago!!!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wate.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-tennessee-hamblen-county-has-first-confirmed-case-mayor-bill-brittain-says/amp/
For someone that posts a lot on this stuff, it would be nice to have facts right. Or at least not utterly wrong.
First, in a thread that is titled Coronavirus Math, many of my posts have numbers. Not just snarky opinions and put-downs and lazy flippant comments like "Don't let facts get in the way." Second, I misremembered the county, which is Hancock County - not Hamblen County. Jeez, I'm human, that was an easy mistake to make.
My basis for saying that Hancock County is the only county in the U.S without a Covid case was an article in the USA-Today owned local newspaper. Clearly the newspaper got that wrong -probably the only county in Tenn with no patients.
Quote: mcallister3200Let’s be real. At least 80% of people’s opinion on this falls along economic selfishness lines whichever side of continued indefinite shutdown they fall on. People are overwhelmingly selfish by human nature. Labeling specific people or groups that is just name calling, and people get more belligerent about it the more anyone disagrees with them.
Those who are privileged and can work from home or are making more from unemployment+CARES disproportionately overwhelmingly support shutting down indefinitely as long as it in no way hurts them financially to do so, those who want more freedom of choice a disproportionate percentage of them are being financially harmed by indefinite shutdown. Sure there will be a few exceptions, those who just lose their sense of worth and feel like a bum getting paid more for nothing and then those who are perfectly content living a life of comic books/Netflix, wrestling and grilled cheese:), or perhaps just a few noble soles, but that will be just a few.
I'm hemorrhaging money and will for the near future but have no plans to open for the next few weeks. Meanwhile, tenants who haven't paid their rent in two months are thrilled the bars in Bisbee have opened.
Quote: TomGYou label her as an employee, which can be defined as someone who responds to financial incentives; then you question that she was being influenced by the financial incentives of work. She was not the problem, she merely revealed the problem of having public health in such heavy conflict with some peoples economic health. Everyone whose lives were risked from being exposed to her knew that there was a pandemic, why were they still choosing to go to work?
By law, if an employee is infected. Her co workers are also required to quarantine for 2 weeks at the expense of the employer. In this situation. The person infected was not an employee but an aunt. Worker would be financially responsible for her own quarantine expenses. If she had come to me to ask for help financially. Then id consider that. But to decide to not let her co workers or boss or restaurant customers know is selfish.
Ive told all the managers for months that 2 weeks paid leave is financially easy for our co. Is peoples lives worth less than a 2 weeks wage.
She claims that she tested negative. Im considering taking her off the schedule until she shows proof. What if she is asymptomatic
Quote: mcallister3200Bars are bad news for this. No one goes to bars other than an alcoholic dive bar with the intent of social distancing. Can’t really wear a mask while actively drinking or eating. Bars I’ve seen open recently around here definitely appeared to be ignoring the 50% occupancy restriction. And aids people in acting with less/distorted thinking, etc.
Bars are for people who want to drink and have a good time. We are starting to see that there is little correlation between being locked down and infection rates. It is time to get back to normal and quit being scared to death of living a normal life. It is very apparent that the majority now wants to end the lockdowns. As was posted earlier, the majority who support are able to work from home or are collecting nice unemployment checks. They do not care if their neighbor is hurting and ironically call people who want to get back "selfish." To me they are the selfish ones.
Quote: AZDuffmanBars are for people who want to drink and have a good time. We are starting to see that there is little correlation between being locked down and infection rates. It is time to get back to normal and quit being scared to death of living a normal life. It is very apparent that the majority now wants to end the lockdowns. As was posted earlier, the majority who support are able to work from home or are collecting nice unemployment checks. They do not care if their neighbor is hurting and ironically call people who want to get back "selfish." To me they are the selfish ones.
How are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
How is it obvious to you that the majority support ending the lockdown? Three hundred gun nuts show up defending their rights to infect others and you think they represent the majority of the people?
I'd think if a family is hurting financially, the last place they should be spending money is in a bar. Can't afford your rent or your car payment, no problem. Head down to the corner tavern. Drink away your money and blame "The man" for your lack of preparedness.
Let's not let the worse pandemic in a century keep us from having fun. That is, after all, what life is all about.
"We are starting to see that there's little correlation" as a word salad standing alone may be useful when making an argument, but you'll notice the author didn't go the necessary extra mile to say there's no cause-and-effect, which is really all that matters. Every epidemiological model demonstrates a cause-and-effect. You'd be hard pressed to find an epidemiologist who doesn't believe there's a clear, huge cause-and-effect.
Again, language in the service of side-stepping real issues is misdirection. A majority of Americans, if asked, probably would say they are "in support of ending the lockdown" if the only alternative presented to them is "NOT ending the lockdown." If, however, you present them with "ending the lockdown immediately" or "ending it after mass testing and contact tracing are in place," clearly the majority choose the latter. Polls from the beginning have shown massive trepidation to go back to work without other-country-type safeguards in place.
I've never been a big fan of picking and choosing language and details tailored to make particular arguments while everybody's ass is on the line. That's high school debate stuff, not science reporting. If you comb through academic journals and pick and choose outlier studies to make arguments, for example, you can build a case for almost any absurd argument using your own confirmation biases as filters.
Quote: billryanHow are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
[snip]
Bill, you are confusing "lockdown" with the entire ensemble of measures that people are taking to "flatten the curve." People are practicing social distancing, wearing masks, avoiding crowds, etc. Rejoice Bill, because voluntary shutdowns of sports events with crowds, theme parks, concerts and theatrical events, etc. have made an enormous dent in the number of cases - and those shutdowns of mass crowd events will continue for the forseeable future. Those at high risk are staying at home -and will continue to do this even as the lockdown is lifted. Most states have had a focus on protecting the most vulnerable -the elderly in nursing homes -and, rejoice Bill, because that will continue.
We undertook the lockdown and social distancing to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. We have succeeded. The peak day of the coronavirus statistics was three weeks ago. Rejoice! And bewildering information is emerging that the number of cases that are asymptomatic is much greater than we had expected - so 'number of cases' doesn't mean what it used to; the fact that your nephew Billy Joe Bob had a coronavirus case without symptoms isn't a reason to panic and scream "the sky is falling." So let's not use 'number of cases' as a metric, rather let's focus on deaths and hospitalizations because that's what most medical professionals are emphasizing.
I don't understand people who exhibit no joy when learning of unambiguously good news.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: billryanHow are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
[snip]
We undertook the lockdown and social distancing to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. We have succeeded.
I don't understand people who exhibit no joy when learning of unambiguously good news.
I do.
It's called ego.
There have been many projections of deaths. After all 1% mortality equals 3,000,000 deaths.
So I do understand their unhappiness. They cannot possibly be wrong.
Quote: billryanHow are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
The estimates have been way, way off the whole way. The credibility of those making them is shot.
Quote:How is it obvious to you that the majority support ending the lockdown? Three hundred gun nuts show up defending their rights to infect others and you think they represent the majority of the people?
Is "gun nuts" a political statement? What makes the people showing up to protest "nuts?" They are tired of being locked down. They want to get back to work. They want to get to running their business. Please explain how they are "nuts." I want to know.
Quote:I'd think if a family is hurting financially, the last place they should be spending money is in a bar. Can't afford your rent or your car payment, no problem. Head down to the corner tavern. Drink away your money and blame "The man" for your lack of preparedness.
Let's not let the worse pandemic in a century keep us from having fun. That is, after all, what life is all about.
So you are saying "let them eat cake?" The "lockdown" was supposed to be for just a few weeks to "flatten the curve." That has been done. We are now entering our third month. Time to end it. At some point you have to face that life has to go on, and if you get sick that is part of life. Let those who want to lock down at home do so and do so on their own dime. Let the rest get back to work and back to a normal life.
Meanwhile, I will await to see if admin suspends for the political statement as others have been suspended for less.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: billryanHow are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
[snip]
Bill, you are confusing "lockdown" with the entire ensemble of measures that people are taking to "flatten the curve." People are practicing social distancing, wearing masks, avoiding crowds, etc. Rejoice Bill, because voluntary shutdowns of sports events with crowds, theme parks, concerts and theatrical events, etc. have made an enormous dent in the number of cases - and those shutdowns of mass crowd events will continue for the forseeable future. Those at high risk are staying at home -and will continue to do this even as the lockdown is lifted. Most states have had a focus on protecting the most vulnerable -the elderly in nursing homes -and, rejoice Bill, because that will continue.
We undertook the lockdown and social distancing to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. We have succeeded. The peak day of the coronavirus statistics was three weeks ago. Rejoice! And bewildering information is emerging that the number of cases that are asymptomatic is much greater than we had expected - so 'number of cases' doesn't mean what it used to; the fact that your nephew Billy Joe Bob had a coronavirus case without symptoms isn't a reason to panic and scream "the sky is falling." So let's not use 'number of cases' as a metric, rather let's focus on deaths and hospitalizations because that's what most medical professionals are emphasizing.
I don't understand people who exhibit no joy when learning of unambiguously good news.
I guess I just don't see how 90,000 dead Americans as unambiguously good news.
Infections and hospitalizations are up in my state and sixteen others. Is that the unambiguous news we should be celebrating? So far, we are the Washinton Generals playing the Globetrotters and it isn't halftime. Getting your ass kicked from here to Sunday isn't good news. But this is America where the right to infect others is evidently deep in some peoples DNA.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe estimates have been way, way off the whole way. The credibility of those making them is shot.
Not necessarily. If someone predicted there is a credible threat of something, it will have a direct effect on the prediction when people are able to react to the prediction.
I think the threat reported was considered credible, so people did respond, thereby altering the prediction.
Sure beats the 2.2 million prediction that formed the original premise of the massive national lockdown.Quote: billryanI guess I just don't see how 90,000 dead Americans as unambiguously good news.
Quote: ChumpChangeIt will spread by a factor of 10 every 6 days, unless you throw in some social distancing then it might take 8-10 days.
This will crash the hospital system. With no ICUs available, the disease mortality rate will be running to 15% from then on.
So America hits 100,000 cases by the weekend, it could hit a million cases by April 7, hit 10 million cases by April 17, hit 100 million cases by April 27.
Extreme prolonged lockdowns could slow this whole thing down, but you'll still crash the hospital system by the end of summer.
So, if lockdowns are outlawed, hospitals crash, the disease mortality rate goes to 15%, but everybody else doing normal things can't go to the hospital, period! Get in a car crash on the way to work? The hospital is a hot zone, can't go in there. The mortality rate of people dying doing other things could add up to 20%. So 15% + 20% = about a 1/3rd chance of dying in this pandemic in America.
What China is doing is interesting but they have to ban visitors now because everybody else is still contagious. Other states are looking at New York and telling New Yorkers to quarantine for 14 days or leave their state. I expect the military will shut down the New York State border within 2 weeks.
So if you live in a city of 1.5 million, 225,000 could die from the disease, 300,000 could die of the anarchy of Mad Max, for a total of 525,000 or just over 1/3rd. All that could take 2-4 months. YMMV
A blast from the recent past. Enjoy!
Quote: billryan
I guess I just don't see how 90,000 dead Americans as unambiguously good news.
Infections and hospitalizations are up in my state and sixteen others. Is that the unambiguous news we should be celebrating? So far, we are the Washinton Generals playing the Globetrotters and it isn't halftime. Getting your ass kicked from here to Sunday isn't good news. But this is America where the right to infect others is evidently deep in some peoples DNA.
If 95%+ of the population is not infected how does "the right to infect" someone come into play? We are doing very, very good considering it was modeled to be >1MM. Those afraid to go outside lest they be infected are free to stay in their homes forever. Because after this one there will be another scare. Then another. Then another. There is no "safe."
Quote: DeMangoA blast from the recent past. Enjoy!
I'm so glad you opened that door.
Quote: DeMangoQuote: gordonm888Quote: billryanHow are you seeing no correlation between the lockdown and infection rates? It is estimated that without the lockdown the US would have 35 million cases instead of two million.
[snip]
We undertook the lockdown and social distancing to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. We have succeeded.
I don't understand people who exhibit no joy when learning of unambiguously good news.
I do.
It's called ego.
There have been many projections of deaths. After all 1% mortality equals 3,000,000 deaths.
So I do understand their unhappiness. They cannot possibly be wrong.
Quote: DeMangoA blast from the recent past. Enjoy!
I don't think anyone here believed those numbers other than him.
Even my hopeful guesstimate from ~8 wks ago is falling short. :( Now hoping for <250k US deaths by the end. But with chances of a 2nd wave, i could see up to 500k. And those Stanford doctors you pointed out were WAYYYY off.
Quote: jjjooogggBy law, if an employee is infected. Her co workers are also required to quarantine for 2 weeks at the expense of the employer. In this situation. The person infected was not an employee but an aunt. Worker would be financially responsible for her own quarantine expenses. If she had come to me to ask for help financially. Then id consider that. But to decide to not let her co workers or boss or restaurant customers know is selfish.
Ive told all the managers for months that 2 weeks paid leave is financially easy for our co. Is peoples lives worth less than a 2 weeks wage.
She claims that she tested negative. Im considering taking her off the schedule until she shows proof. What if she is asymptomatic
I would require proof to return to work early.
Quote: DeMangoDon't know where I read it, can' repeat it verbatim, but somebody noted how amazing it was that all the political experts on the boards now turned into medical experts. And when you quote medical experts, like those Docs at Stanford, the nattering nabobs of negativity get their feelings hurt and cry foul. By the way, some docs over at UCLA, another no name school, ran the same tests like those whippersnappers at Stanford and came up with the same results: Massive numbers of previously unknown folks who had antibodies and didn't know it. Mass General Hospital found 33% of people, in their surveys, were carrying the antibodies.
That's the study that predicted 20,000-40,000 dead by August 1st, no? We passed the 20K mark during your first suspension, and 40K during your second.
Quote: tringlomane
I would require proof to return to work early.
Today, she gave us the results.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe estimates have been way, way off the whole way. The credibility of those making them is shot.
The irony of you making this statement is quite astounding. How many more days until the beginning of April? Or was it March? :S
Quote: AussieThe irony of you making this statement is quite astounding. How many more days until the beginning of April? Or was it March? :S
Not quite sure what you are getting at.
Quote: AZDuffmanNot quite sure what you are getting at.
Exactly.
But the average age of deaths due to Coronavirus is higher than the average age of death from all other causes.
If that is true, it’s time to open things back up and keep those at most risk quarantined.
Quote: gamerfreakI heard stat the other day, maybe someone can fact check
But the average age of deaths due to Coronavirus is higher than the average age of death from all other causes.
If that is true, it’s time to open things back up and keep those at most risk quarantined.
So what do you do with people who live in multi-generational housing?
If 80% of the deaths are people over 65, that means almost 20,000 Americans under 65 have died from this in the last six weeks while the nation was in lockdown. Do you think that number will rise or fall when it is business as usual?
Remember last year, when six or seven people died from tainted liquor? That was a tragedy, but 20,000 deaths under the age of 65, not to mention all those old folks no one seems to care about.
Quote: gamerfreakI heard stat the other day, maybe someone can fact check
But the average age of deaths due to Coronavirus is higher than the average age of death from all other causes.
If that is true, it’s time to open things back up and keep those at most risk quarantined.
The stat I heard is the median (not average) age of death was higher than average life expectancy. And remember, lots of deaths have been in nursing homes that were forced to take positive testing people. So yes, time to open up.
Quote: billryanSo what do you do with people who live in multi-generational housing?
If 80% of the deaths are people over 65, that means almost 20,000 Americans under 65 have died from this in the last six weeks while the nation was in lockdown. Do you think that number will rise or fall when it is business as usual?
Remember last year, when six or seven people died from tainted liquor? That was a tragedy, but 20,000 deaths under the age of 65, not to mention all those old folks no one seems to care about.
What you "do with them" is let them figure out what to do. We cannot keep spending trillions of dollars on this. We need to open up.
It is not a matter of "caring about them." It is about simple realities.
Quote: gamerfreakI heard stat the other day, maybe someone can fact check
But the average age of deaths due to Coronavirus is higher than the average age of death from all other causes.
If that is true, it’s time to open things back up and keep those at most risk quarantined.
If what you "heard" is correct, many WoV members will be looking for confirmation or denial. I'll sure keep my eyes open. Did you inquire about data to substantiate what you were told?
However, anytime I see pronouncements that assert "all" I take notice. What you heard can be shown as false if someone finds only one cause of death with a lower average age of death. Suicides? Car crashes? All?? I'm suspicious because it doesn't pass what I see as a reasonable assertion, absent data.
About your closing comment, if what you heard is shown to be false, is it then time to do as the epidemiologists suggest? Y'know, stay safely sheltered if you can, wear a mask if you go out in public, maintain safe personal distance, and thereby dampen the C-virus spread.
Whether or not what you heard is true, it does appear we are opening the country. If the epidemiologists are correct, the country may be in for a rather bumpy ride before things return to "normal."
Quote: AZDuffmanWhat you "do with them" is let them figure out what to do. We cannot keep spending trillions of dollars on this. We need to open up.
It is not a matter of "caring about them." It is about simple realities.
Every man for himself eh? The battle cry of the weak and worthless for generations. Whatever happened to we are all in this together and will leave no man behind. Our parents and grandparents sacrificed to save the world twice. Now they can rot so you can have a drink with your buddies.
Quote: billryanEvery man for himself eh? The battle cry of the weak and worthless for generations. Whatever happened to we are all in this together and will leave no man behind. Our parents and grandparents sacrificed to save the world twice. Now they can rot so you can have a drink with your buddies.
Old and sick people be damned, I need a haircut and can’t hold out much longer
Give me disease or give me death
Latest projections with full closing of states and without.
Worst case model is full reopening expect 290,000 dead by July 24th
Quote: darkozIt's a strange battlecry!
Give me disease or give me death
Darkoz,
You might like the first couple lines of this. No need to read it all. See, everybody thinks somewhat alike:
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2020/05/speculations.html
The point was, it's no longer "or," it's "and." Death and liberty is now a combo. You get a drink with it.
Quote: billryanEvery man for himself eh? The battle cry of the weak and worthless for generations. Whatever happened to we are all in this together and will leave no man behind. Our parents and grandparents sacrificed to save the world twice. Now they can rot so you can have a drink with your buddies.
But our parents didn't stay at home afraid and ask for monthly government checks to do so. They went out and dealt with the danger at hand. The reply is about what of multi-generation houses and their more senior members. Well, we cannot figure that out for each and every one. Perhaps they do their own social distancing in their homes? Perhaps they do nothing unless someone appears sick? Perhaps they do little to nothing?
The point of this lockdown was to make sure the medical system did not get flooded and unable to cope. We accomplished that. The point was not to hide in our homes until a vaccine was made and all was "safe." That is not happening. Time to open up and get on with life. I am pretty sure the soldiers who fought to save the world would not be happy that so many people want to stay home because of a virus that is probably not even a threat in their state.
Quote: billryanEvery man for himself eh?
No, not everyman for himself. This has been an incredible era of cooperation, of people giving and trying to help in whatever way they can. That is not going to end.
Quote: billryanThe battle cry of the weak and worthless for generations.
"Land of the Free and Home of the Brave" is pretty close to the battle cry of the republic. I know you are a literalist who has frequently posted " Don't let facts get in your way" so I will admit that I don't literally know what the battle cry is of "the weak and the worthless." Because I tend to associate more with "the free and the brave." How do you know what the battle cry is of "the weak and the worthless?"
Quote: billryanWhatever happened to we are all in this together and will leave no man behind. Our parents and grandparents sacrificed to save the world twice. Now they can rot so you can have a drink with your buddies.
What a nasty, unfair sentiment to disparage us with. I have never heard any person say that they want their parents and grandparents to rot because they want to be able to have a drink with their buddies.
My wife has a serious disease that is limiting her lifespan and she would like to be able to travel and visit her grandchildren ( 1 year & 1.5 year old.) And walk through a farmer's market or eat a meal in a restaurant. And go to church. And to make the most of the time that she has left. And I desperately want all of that for her. How dare you impugn peoples motivations for wanting to come out of lockdown? How dare you disparage us for being heartless and cavalier towards our parents and grandparents, when the opposite is true (I'll spare you a lengthy recitation of personal facts).
Bill, in your posts on this board you seem to demonize people who disagree with you with the most unspeakably evil interpetation of their motivations while disparaging their intelligence and ability to analyze and understand the world around them. Yet, most of the people on this WOV board (including you, I imagine) are good decent people who treat other people honorably and with compassion, are of above average intelligence and who have burdens and problems that you and I know nothing about. When people disagree with you it may be because they have had different experiences than you that have caused them to have different values and different political opinions -not because they want their parents and grandparents to rot so that they can drink with their buddies.
I respectfully ask you to elevate the tone and level of your posts and to stop demonizing people that disagree with you.
Quote: gordonm888No, not everyman for himself. This has been an incredible era of cooperation, of people giving and trying to help in whatever way they can. That is not going to end.
"Land of the Free and Home of the Brave" is pretty close to the battle cry of the republic. I know you are a literalist who has frequently posted " Don't let facts get in your way" so I will admit that I don't literally know what the battle cry is of "the weak and the worthless." Because I tend to associate more with "the free and the brave." How do you know what the battle cry is of "the weak and the worthless?"
Quote: billryanWhatever happened to we are all in this together and will leave no man behind. Our parents and grandparents sacrificed to save the world twice. Now they can rot so you can have a drink with your buddies.
Quote: gordonWhat a nasty, unfair sentiment to disparage us with. I have never heard any person say that they want their parents and grandparents to rot because they want to be able to have a drink with their buddies.
My wife has a serious disease that is limiting her lifespan and she would like to be able to travel and visit her grandchildren ( 1 year & 1.5 year old.) And walk through a farmer's market or eat a meal in a restaurant. And go to church. And to make the most of the time that she has left. And I desperately want all of that for her. How dare you impugn peoples motivations for wanting to come out of lockdown? How dare you disparage us for being heartless and cavalier towards our parents and grandparents, when the opposite is true (I'll spare you a lengthy recitation of personal facts).
Bill, in your posts on this board you seem to demonize people who disagree with you with the most unspeakably evil interpetation of their motivations while disparaging their intelligence and ability to analyze and understand the world around them. Yet, most of the people on this WOV board (including you, I imagine) are good decent people who treat other people honorably and with compassion, are of above average intelligence and who have burdens and problems that you and I know nothing about. When people disagree with you it may be because they have had different experiences than you that have caused them to have different values and different political opinions -not because they want their parents and grandparents to rot so that they can drink with their buddies.
I respectfully ask you to elevate the tone and level of your posts and to stop demonizing people that disagree with you.
Really? Coming from you?
What life experiences does one need to put their friends and families health at risk so they can grab a drink with a room full of strangers?
Quote: darkoz
Latest projections with full closing of states and without.
Nothing can be more useless. NO STATE has come close to 'full closing'. NOT EVEN CLOSE! I could list the 'essential businesses' in New York State that were NEVER closed. Except I have a tee time tomorrow and wouldn't have enough time! Oh well... here goes.... some obviously are 'essential', but others?
When 'fully closed' the dry cleaner, pizza baker, accountant, radio talk show host, cop, fireman, nurse, doctor, Walmart worker, Target worker, Home Depot worker, tax preparer, plumber, bus driver, school maintenance worker, meat packer, electrician, gas station attendant, landscaper, airline stewardess, psychiatrist, Amazon delivery guy, Starbucks take out guy, I'm bored......
The fact that unemployment is LESS than 20% shows how LITTLE we have actually 'shut down'!
Quote: billryan
Really? Coming from you?
What life experiences does one need to put their friends and families health at risk so they can grab a drink with a room full of strangers?
Yes, coming from me. And, you obviously didn't read what I posted.
And if you don't want to put your family and friend's lives at risk, don't allow them to get out of bed, ride in a car or plane or train, drink soda pop, play sports, climb a ladder, swim in the ocean, etc. There is a trade-off between increments of risk and engaging in the pageant of life.
Even in the lock-downs we had somewhere between 30-50% of the workforce allowed to work. Construction went on. Real estate activities went on. Bottle exemption clerks worked. Liquor stores stayed open. Weed dispensaries stayed open. Accounting and stock trading stayed open. Where is your outrage that we put people at risk by allowing those activities? Where is your condemnation of the governors and mayors that made those decisions?
IMO, your posts on these issues don't add up to a consistent point of view about risk vs. societal sacrifice.
And you didn't respond to my observation that you seem to demonize the people that disagree with you. Is that true? Do you demonize the people who disagree with you? Do you hate people that disagree with you and look down on them?
Quote: SOOPOONothing can be more useless. NO STATE has come close to 'full closing'. NOT EVEN CLOSE! I could list the 'essential businesses' in New York State that were NEVER closed. Except I have a tee time tomorrow and wouldn't have enough time! Oh well... here goes.... some obviously are 'essential', but others?
When 'fully closed' the dry cleaner, pizza baker, accountant, radio talk show host, cop, fireman, nurse, doctor, Walmart worker, Target worker, Home Depot worker, tax preparer, plumber, bus driver, school maintenance worker, meat packer, electrician, gas station attendant, landscaper, airline stewardess, psychiatrist, Amazon delivery guy, Starbucks take out guy, I'm bored......
The fact that unemployment is LESS than 20% shows how LITTLE we have actually 'shut down'!
I agree.
Which means if these projections are correct we are in for some serious situations ahead
Quote: gordonm888Yes, coming from me. And, you obviously didn't read what I posted.
And if you don't want to put your family and friend's lives at risk, don't allow them to get out of bed, ride in a car or plane or train, drink soda pop, play sports, climb a ladder, swim in the ocean, etc. There is a trade-off between increments of risk and engaging in the pageant of life.
Even in the lock-downs we had somewhere between 30-50% of the workforce allowed to work. Construction went on. Real estate activities went on. Bottle exemption clerks worked. Liquor stores stayed open. Weed dispensaries stayed open. Accounting and stock trading stayed open. Where is your outrage that we put people at risk by allowing those activities? Where is your condemnation of the governors and mayors that made those decisions?
IMO, your posts on these issues don't add up to a consistent point of view about risk vs. societal sacrifice.
And you didn't respond to my observation that you seem to demonize the people that disagree with you. Is that true? Do you demonize the people who disagree with you? Do you hate people that disagree with you and look down on them?
How many otherwise avoidable additional deaths are you ok with in exchange for you and your wife to get out and enjoy your life a month or two sooner? You may be cutting 10-15 years off the life of a 70 year old so you can have a good summer
If someone in your family ended up being one of those deaths , would you still say it was a worthy sacrifice so the guy who owns the diner down the street could open back up and catch up on his rent ?
Quote: michael99000How many otherwise avoidable additional deaths are you ok with in exchange for you and your wife to get out and enjoy your life a month or two sooner? You may be cutting 10-15 years off the life of a 70 year old so you can have a good summer
If someone in your family ended up being one of those deaths , would you still say it was a worthy sacrifice so the guy who owns the diner down the street could open back up and catch up on his rent ?
Those are fair questions, fairly stated.
First let me say that my wife and I have been extreme about staying at home; we probably haven;t been out as much as most of the people in this debate. So, I might ask why we cannot go out as much as you all have been doing?
But to answer your question, if I knew that someonewould die because of something we did, then i wouldn't do it. If the odds were 1 in 10 that someone would die, or 1:100, I wouldn't do it. But if you asked us to lockdown so that we would not put one person to be at 1 in 100,000 risk of dieing, then I don't think we would do that.
I'm trying to be as honest as I can be.
Quote: billryanIf 80% of the deaths are people over 65, that means almost 20,000 Americans under 65 have died from this in the last six weeks while the nation was in lockdown. Do you think that number will rise or fall when it is business as usual?
Remember last year, when six or seven people died from tainted liquor? That was a tragedy, but 20,000 deaths under the age of 65, not to mention all those old folks no one seems to care about.
All death is tragic.
I’ve unfortunately seen a lot of death in my late teens-mid 20’s as a firefighter/EMT. Whatever the most tragic/horrific death you can imagine, I have probably seen something close. Particularly when it came to motor vehicle accidents, which were frequent.
A few years of this eventually wore on my mental health. For a while I would not get in a car for more than a 10-15 minute drive, and avoided highways completely. If someone else was driving I had to be heavily medicated.
I am not sure exactly why, but I got over it at some point. Zero risk does not exist in anything, everyone dies eventually. At some point you have to accept some amount of risk, sometimes even significant risk, when it is worth the benefit. Driving is the best example of this, which is why I bring it up in every COVID discussion.
We don’t shut down all roads, because the 50k killed and hundreds of thousands permanently disfigured each year is worth the benefit brought by motor vehicle travel.
I am not saying a quarantine shouldn’t have happened at all. But unless you are suggesting it go on for years, but at some point the impact of prohibiting commerce in anything deemed non-essential Is way, way worse than the loss of life by continuing this type of lockdown.
Quote: gamerfreakAll death is tragic.
I’ve unfortunately seen a lot of death in my late teens-mid 20’s as a firefighter/EMT. Whatever the most tragic/horrific death you can imagine, I have probably seen something close. Particularly when it came to motor vehicle accidents, which were frequent.
A few years of this eventually wore on my mental health. For a while I would not get in a car for more than a 10-15 minute drive, and avoided highways completely. If someone else was driving I had to be heavily medicated.
I am not sure exactly why, but I got over it at some point. Zero risk does not exist in anything, everyone dies eventually. At some point you have to accept some amount of risk, sometimes even significant risk, when it is worth the benefit. Driving is the best example of this, which is why I bring it up in every COVID discussion.
We don’t shut down all roads, because the 50k killed and hundreds of thousands permanently disfigured each year is worth the benefit brought by motor vehicle travel.
I am not saying a quarantine shouldn’t have happened at all. But unless you are suggesting it go on for years, but at some point the impact of prohibiting commerce in anything deemed non-essential Is way, way worse than the loss of life by continuing this type of lockdown.
Some activities should be curtailed during a pandemic. It sucks, but it's the price you pay for being a part of society.
Everyone seems to agree large concerts are out for now. There will be no beerfest at the Preakness, NASCAR is running to empty stands. It seems most people agree it's safer not to do these things. Yet they think nothing of participating in 200 man bike runs that become bar crawls, or having 3,000 people at a block party.
It's rather pathetic but it seems the people were more concerned about getting their bars open than the churches.
This post is typical of how unhelpful and insulting this thread is. It’s the new political thread.Quote: billryanSome activities should be curtailed during a pandemic. It sucks, but it's the price you pay for being a part of society.
Everyone seems to agree large concerts are out for now. There will be no beerfest at the Preakness, NASCAR is running to empty stands. It seems most people agree it's safer not to do these things. Yet they think nothing of participating in 200 man bike runs that become bar crawls, or having 3,000 people at a block party.
It's rather pathetic but it seems the people were more concerned about getting their bars open than the churches.
Quote: unJonThis post is typical of how unhelpful and insulting this thread is. It’s the new political thread.
I agree. IMO, this thread should be shut down.
