Coronavirus math
Quote: darkoz
My apologies. It was DRich in a different thread. I made an adjustment to the post in question.
That capital D must have stuck out in my memory as Doc or maybe DR(rich) said Doc in my mind's eye
Yes, that was me. I am the nihlist.
Jokes aside, I don't want to live this way, I'm so sick of it, and the world won't be the same, so I hope we just get it over with. Maybe someone will invent something less uncomfortable than a mask, and other diseases will never spread. I really have some disbelief this has gone on so long, I thought we would have to be through this in 3 weeks and the virus would be hard to even find. Feels like all lies to me, how can it be this bad? Well it's moving it's way to the White House now, secret service staff and members of Pence's staff. If Trump winds up sick and the stock market goes up, it'll be unreal.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI saw some white people not social distancing at the gas station yesterday. Maybe for white people, it's the perfect crime to kill your parents to inherit their money.
Jokes aside, I don't want to live this way, I'm so sick of it, and the world won't be the same, so I hope we just get it over with. Maybe someone will invent something less uncomfortable than a mask, and other diseases will never spread. I really have some disbelief this has gone on so long, I thought we would have to be through this in 3 weeks and the virus would be hard to even find. Feels like all lies to me, how can it be this bad? Well it's moving it's way to the White House now, secret service staff and members of Pence's staff. If Trump winds up sick and the stock market goes up, it'll be unreal.
I am putting in my vote that your mention of Trump and the stock market in this context DOES NOT constitute a political statement.
It's about to be Coronavirus news.
Anyway you got my support on this if it is an issue - for whatever that's worth as a non-mod :)
Quote: darkozI am putting in my vote that your mention of Trump and the stock market in this context DOES NOT constitute a political statement.
It's about to be Coronavirus news.
Anyway you got my support on this if it is an issue - for whatever that's worth as a non-mod :)
Kinda like notifying the pit boss that the guy sitting next to you
is counting cards , but also mentioning his bet spread isn’t that wide.
I won't be mad at him nor anyone else.Quote: michael99000Kinda like notifying the pit boss that the guy sitting next to you
is counting cards , but also mentioning his bet spread isn’t that wide.
It may be of terrible importance to our nation.
I think we can do that without giving support for partisan issues and we can avoid suspensions.
I would like some clarity here as my next suspension would be for s month and I wouldn't want it to be for mentioning the health of our leader
Other than people working in essentials.....Why not?Quote: AZDuffmanChoices must me made. We cannot hide at home forever. We cannot just print money to let people stay home.
I have been following this for a few days. It was just a handful of cases a week ago.
Now it's 73 cases in NYS alone. It's already popped up in eight other states.
A Covid-19 strain or mutation that hits small children.
Up until today there were no deaths.
Scratch that now.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/kids-health/boy-5-dies-covid-19-linked-inflammatory-syndrome-n1203076
The one below has a video of how it affects the children.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-doctor-son-battling-virus-in-the-hospital/
Quote: darkozHouston, we may have a problem!
I have been following this for a few days. It was just a handful of cases a week ago.
Now it's 73 cases in NYS alone. It's already popped up in eight other states.
A Covid-19 strain or mutation that hits small children.
Up until today there were no deaths.
Scratch that now.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/kids-health/boy-5-dies-covid-19-linked-inflammatory-syndrome-n1203076
The one below has a video of how it affects the children.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-doctor-son-battling-virus-in-the-hospital/
Every life matters, but the data you present isn't statistically relevant. It's not worthy of another "coronagasm". Children face more serious problems and diseases, including leukemia. The Wuhan Virus isn't even on the radar for them.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI saw some white people not social distancing at the gas station yesterday. Maybe for white people, it's the perfect crime to kill your parents to inherit their money.
Jokes aside, I don't want to live this way, I'm so sick of it, and the world won't be the same, so I hope we just get it over with. Maybe someone will invent something less uncomfortable than a mask, and other diseases will never spread. I really have some disbelief this has gone on so long, I thought we would have to be through this in 3 weeks and the virus would be hard to even find. Feels like all lies to me, how can it be this bad? Well it's moving it's way to the White House now, secret service staff and members of Pence's staff. If Trump winds up sick and the stock market goes up, it'll be unreal.
Next year isn't an election year. So we'll look back and laugh about the absurdity of the masks.
Quote: AxelWolfOther than people working in essentials.....Why not?
Well, many reasons. One is that it does not work. Plenty of people in NYC never left their house got it. For another, how do you expect these people to be able to pay rent and buy food? But the biggest is that staying in your house afraid of catching the bug is neither normal nor healthy. In the 80s we felt sad for the people of Poland who got locked down under martial law. Today we have people seemingly wanting to be locked down forever?
IF you catch it you have perhaps a 1 in 200 chance of dying from it. But your chances of catching it are not 100%. Maybe 1 in 3 at most. Let see, live in a depression for a 1 in 600 chances something may kill me other than the many things that will......hmmmm?
I prefer we open up. And without wearing masks or these other crazy things that make it look like that early episode of "Sliders." I'll take my chances. Many people feel the same. Probably most.
Quote: AZDuffmanWell, many reasons. One is that it does not work. Plenty of people in NYC never left their house got it. For another, how do you expect these people to be able to pay rent and buy food? But the biggest is that staying in your house afraid of catching the bug is neither normal nor healthy. In the 80s we felt sad for the people of Poland who got locked down under martial law. Today we have people seemingly wanting to be locked down forever?
IF you catch it you have perhaps a 1 in 200 chance of dying from it. But your chances of catching it are not 100%. Maybe 1 in 3 at most. Let see, live in a depression for a 1 in 600 chances something may kill me other than the many things that will......hmmmm?
I prefer we open up. And without wearing masks or these other crazy things that make it look like that early episode of "Sliders." I'll take my chances. Many people feel the same. Probably most.
Unfortunately the "many people" argument doesn't sway me as an AP
Many people, probably most, believe rubbing the screen of a slot machine each spin will better their odds.
These are the "many people" we are taking life risking advice from?
Quote: darkozUnfortunately the "many people" argument doesn't sway me as an AP
Many people, probably most, believe rubbing the screen of a slot machine each spin will better their odds.
These are the "many people" we are taking life risking advice from?
Maybe it would sway you if you took a good, hard look.
If the lockdown is so effective, why are there not massive cases among "essential workers?"
If you think living a normal life is "life risking" you had better get used to spending your life at home with the blinds drawn. Let the rest of us live a normal life.
Quote: AZDuffmanMaybe it would sway you if you took a good, hard look.
If the lockdown is so effective, why are there not massive cases among "essential workers?"
If you think living a normal life is "life risking" you had better get used to spending your life at home with the blinds drawn. Let the rest of us live a normal life.
There are massive cases among essential workers.
You are actually stating here that you are unaware of any nurses, doctors, meat packing plant workers, police, firefighters, or public transportation workers that have contracted the virus?
This morning news? A third white house worker has tested positive for Covid-19, Ivanka Trump's assistant?
Cases in Georgia which reopened about two weeks ago have spike 40%
And we are at or about to be at the 80,000 dead mark in the USA MORE THAN DOUBLE WHERE WE WERE 3 WEEKS AGO
Will that good hard look sway you?
Quote: darkozUnfortunately the "many people" argument doesn't sway me as an AP
Many people, probably most, believe rubbing the screen of a slot machine each spin will better their odds.
These are the "many people" we are taking life risking advice from?
Maybe if you really were an AP it would.
Woodstock occurred during the Hong Kong Flu pandemic. (Psst..sorry if the name isn't political correct enough for some.) Around 100,000 people died in the US, and back then the population of the US was only about 200 million.
https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/
Quote: KeyserMaybe if you really were an AP it would.
Personal insult.
Denigrating someone's abilities especially someone who has given past evidence on this very forum
Quote: KeyserMaybe if you really were an AP it would.
Woodstock occurred during the Hong Kong Flu pandemic. (Psst..sorry if the name isn't political correct enough for some.) Around 100,000 people died in the US, and back then the population of the US was only about 200 million.
https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/
Most people know that July is not flu season. How many Americans died of the Hong Kong Flu in July of 1969?
Had 70,000 died in the weeks before, I suspect it would have been different.
Quote: darkozThere are massive cases among essential workers.
You are actually stating here that you are unaware of any nurses, doctors, meat packing plant workers, police, firefighters, or public transportation workers that have contracted the virus?
This morning news? A third white house worker has tested positive for Covid-19, Ivanka Trump's assistant?
Cases in Georgia which reopened about two weeks ago have spike 40%
And we are at or about to be at the 80,000 dead mark in the USA MORE THAN DOUBLE WHERE WE WERE 3 WEEKS AGO
Will that good hard look sway you?
No, it will not sway me.
80,000 dead is really not a huge number. The flu causes nearly the same yearly. And the death stats for the flu are not inflated due to financial incentive to put it on the death cert.
100,000 died of flu yet they still held Woodstock that year.
What is happening is we hear a number of deaths and about 30% of the population lets itself be scared to death.
If you get it you have a 1 in 200-300 chance of dying. Pretty good odds. The same people scared to death of it are probably the same ones who buy a lottery ticket where the chances of randomly dialing a phone number in DC and getting Trump's "back line" and he answers are probably better.
No, I am not swayed. We overreacted by a factor of 100. Plain and simple.
Quote: darkozPersonal insult.
Denigrating someone's abilities especially someone who has given past evidence on this very forum
You brought it up. He is counterpointing. No insult.
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, it will not sway me.
80,000 dead is really not a huge number. The flu causes nearly the same yearly. And the death stats for the flu are not inflated due to financial incentive to put it on the death cert.
100,000 died of flu yet they still held Woodstock that year.
What is happening is we hear a number of deaths and about 30% of the population lets itself be scared to death.
If you get it you have a 1 in 200-300 chance of dying. Pretty good odds. The same people scared to death of it are probably the same ones who buy a lottery ticket where the chances of randomly dialing a phone number in DC and getting Trump's "back line" and he answers are probably better.
No, I am not swayed. We overreacted by a factor of 100. Plain and simple.
Why would you compare 80,000 yearly (your own observation) to 80,000 in three months
Assuming that extrapolation we should expect 320,000 dead for the year however
Cases growing exponentially every day would point to perhaps half a million by year's end.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou brought it up. He is counterpointing. No insult.
Well I claim insult
He specifically stated I am not something that I live my entire current career by.
I have staked my reputation on this forum over the years on the fact that I am an AP.
His statement impugns years of my reputation
It is not up to you to determine how I feel
How old are you?
Quote: darkozWhy would you compare 80,000 yearly (your own observation) to 80,000 in three months
Assuming that extrapolation we should expect 320,000 dead for the year however
Cases growing exponentially every day would point to perhaps half a million by year's end.
If you understand the concepts of AP then you know your math reasoning is flawed.
You would know that a virus will not survive as well when it gets warmer and thus less cases.
You would know that as we find more treatments, like the malaria pill, that work we will have less deaths.
You would know that in places that got it before the USA, Italy for example, that a peak is reached and the bell curve falls.
You would not just multiply what we have now and extrapolate it out for a year.
Please, if you are afraid just stay home. Let the rest of the world get back to work. People are suffering big time.
Quote: Calder"Mom! Duff's picking on me again!"
How old are you?
The rules are the rules.
Of all the things I have done at WOV the one thing that I actually care most about is my reputation as an AP.
There can be no doubt how I of all people feel about that.
To insult me by saying I am not a real AP I take as a high insult.
Ultimately it depends on how I feel as the insulted party.
Considering Keyser was insulted because I said a part of Disneyland was open I feel Keyser's insult to me is the more egregious.
You don't work years to establish a reputation to have someone just impugn it so casually
Quote: darkozPersonal insult.
Denigrating someone's abilities especially someone who has given past evidence on this very forum
What evidence?
Quote: darkozThe rules are the rules.
Of all the things I have done at WOV the one thing that I actually care most about is my reputation as an AP.
You brought up that you were an AP and an argument did not sway you. He showed a pic of tens of thousands of people not practicing social distancing during a pandemic to show "many people."
Where I come from that is not an insult, it is how men communicate with each other.
"You like the Bills? I thought you said you were a pro football fan!"
"Hey, nice haircut! Did you do it yourself?!"
It is not how men talk to each other at the fancy private club the rich guys hang out at. But that is not where we are at. Learn to roll with the punches. If you do not want people to question your status as an AP, don't bring it up. Problem solved.
Quote: KeyserWhat evidence?
Are you saying I have not produced evidence in the past that I am an Advantage Player?
I will take that as a further insult
Quote: darkozAre you saying I have not produced evidence in the past that I am an Advantage Player?
I will take that as a further insult
Insult? No.
Maybe he just has not read the threads where you discussed it.
I have not seen where, but I am not really interested. I make my own journey in gaming.
Quote: AZDuffmanInsult? No.
Maybe he just has not read the threads where you discussed it.
I have not seen where, but I am not really interested. I make my own journey in gaming.
I think Keyser can speak for himself
Quote: darkozI think Keyser can speak for himself
If you are claiming an insult other people will be replying, that has been how it works here for years.
Quote: AZDuffmanIf you are claiming an insult other people will be replying, that has been how it works here for years.
You are making a statement about what Keyser may or may not have read on this forum
I think Keyser would need to speak for himself on that issue.
Regardless of his knowledge of the matter he did not phrase it as a question or speak to any doubts of my ability as an AP.
He specifically stated I was not an AP.
He was clearly trying to impugn my abilities
Personal insult!
Quote: darkozWell I claim insult
He specifically stated I am not something that I live my entire current career by.
I have staked my reputation on this forum over the years on the fact that I am an AP.
His statement impugns years of my reputation
It is not up to you to determine how I feel
Please stop hijacking this thread. There is a 'suspension list thread' for this pablum.
Quote: darkozYou are making a statement about what Keyser may or may not have read on this forum
I think Keyser would need to speak for himself on that issue.
Regardless of his knowledge of the matter he did not phrase it as a question or speak to any doubts of my ability as an AP.
He specifically stated I was not an AP.
He was clearly trying to impugn my abilities
Personal insult!
You continue to hijack this thread. I want to read about coronavirus stuff here. Thank you.
Quote: darkozYou are making a statement about what Keyser may or may not have read on this forum
I think Keyser would need to speak for himself on that issue.
Regardless of his knowledge of the matter he did not phrase it as a question or speak to any doubts of my ability as an AP.
He specifically stated I was not an AP.
He was clearly trying to impugn my abilities
Personal insult!
That is not quite how he said it.
Maybe if you did not bring up being an AP in a virus thread you could have avoided the issue.
Most people do not care if someone is an AP. APs rarely share much useful info on their craft. So there is no backup if someone is or is not. Your throwing it in to part of the discussion on the virus adds nothing. It is not like saying, "as a doctor I question x." It is like saying "as a plumber I question x."
What is being said is that we do not care if you are an AP or not an AP. Not an insult. As to "tying to impugn your abilities" the conversation is not even about AP.
Quote: SOOPOOPlease stop hijacking this thread. There is a 'suspension list thread' for this pablum.
You have my utmost respect Soopoo
No more talk on my end
Let's discuss Coronavirus
Quote: KeyserMaybe if you really were an AP it would.
Personal insult. Per the Martingale policy -- 14 days.
Quote: jjjooogggWe have to reopen to survive economically. The idiots who dont want to social distance, we can do nothing except watch them die.
Absolutely not true. We need to open up for our previous economy to survive. But this pandemic is exposing our economic problems, it is not creating any. If opening up is the only chance for survival, it is far too fragile. To survive economically, we need to focus on stability instead of growth. Opening up would only be a temporary solution, if nothing is done about the underlying problems we are seeing now.
Early tests from NYC and California showed 3-5% of population had antibodies -indicating that >90-95% of cases are asymptomatic. If that's true then that would change everything - the model predictions would go down greatly and we would have much less risk in reopening the economy.
What happened to antibody testing?
Quote: gordonm888Whatever happened to the serology testing to see how many people have antibodies -especially those cases where people contracted the disease and were symptomatic?
Early tests from NYC and California showed 3-5% of population had antibodies -indicating that >90-95% of cases are asymptomatic. If that's true then that would change everything - the model predictions would go down greatly and we would have much less risk in reopening the economy.
What happened to antibody testing?
The models have been so wrong that they should no longer be believed. Just open up.
Anyone else wonder how prisons, the easiest places to lock down, have gotten cases?
The five minute test the White House continues to use has a 15% failure rate. NYC and others have stopped using it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/realestate/a-quarantine-hospital-so-unwelcome-that-new-yorkers-burned-it-down.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Real%20Estate
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, it will not sway me.
80,000 dead is really not a huge number. The flu causes nearly the same yearly.
That's grossly inaccurate. 80k deaths (in two months non the less) IS a huge number compared to almost any other cause of death (please don't bring smoking etc here - smoking kills you after decades of having a good life and having fun and you have the choice not to do it, C19 kills you in weeks after contracting it and the spring breaking kids and other morons which every country has plenty off take your choice of staying safe AWAY from you) and certainly way more than the flu deaths in the US. The most the flu has taken in the last decade is about 60k, the average is half of that.
And the year is still young. And C19 doesn't seem to slow down with warmer weather like the flu does.
Of course it's impossible and counterproductive even in pandemonium to stay and live in a lockdown indefinitely. The question is what is the optimal time/approach to this. We don't want to underestimate death toll and contagiousness/hospitalization/bed time and long term damage of this lest we'll be putting ourselves in a very bad spot.
The best we could do is stay isolated as long as we can and for as many people as possible before the economic toll gets unbearable.
Quote: rawtuffThat's grossly inaccurate. 80k deaths (in two months non the less) IS a huge number compared to almost any other cause of death (please don't bring smoking etc here - smoking kills you after decades of having a good life and having fun, C19 kills you in weeks after contracting it) and certainly way more than the flu deaths in the US. The most the flu has taken in the last decade is about 60k, the average is half of that.
And the year is still young. And C19 doesn't seem to slow down with warmer weather like the flu does.
But there is no pressure to list flu as cause of death. We have seen they are calling this virus the cause of death even if just a marginal contributor. They are paying bonuses for it in some cases. From anything I have heard 80F kills the virus so we should expect a slowdown when thing warm up. Realistic chance of death remains less than 1 in 200 if you catch it. Your chances of not even knowing you had it have been higher.
Quote:Of course it's impossible and counterproductive even in pandemonium to stay and live in a lockdown indefinitely. The question is what is the optimal time/approach to this. We don't want to underestimate death toll and contagiousness/hospitalization/bed time and long term damage of this lest we'll be putting ourselves in a very bad spot.
The best we could do is stay isolated as long as we can and for as many people as possible before the economic toll gets unbearable.
We have reached unbearable in the economic toll now. We are getting very near a depression, which is worse than a pandemic. The virus thus far has been mostly contained in the NY/NJ/Boston corridor. The rest of us are suffering needlessly. Even there people who did not leave the house are catching it while people who have been out might catch it with effects like the regular flu or less. Continuing the lockdown is crazy.
Quote: AZDuffmanFrom anything I have heard 80F kills the virus
No, 80F doesn't kill it unfortunately. It takes about 15 minutes at at least 56C to kill most of it in lab tests. Direct sunlight/ultraviolet light also deactivates it fairly well. Which might contribute to less open space surfaces spreading during a hot summer/longer daylight, but still leaves the human to human and closed spaces spreading intact.
All one has to do is check if any hot or temperate zones in the world have any Covid-19 cases. You know places where it never snows because the heat is year round or where it is currently in high summer while we are in winter.
Florida check
Brazil check
Australia check
Oops, guess heat doesn't make Coronavirus go away
