Coronavirus math
Quote: jjjooogggCdc webpage has a lag. Worldometer is faster.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Over Or Under on 1 million deaths on June 4, 2020?
All of this speculation is really silly and kind of besides the point. Suicides are not going to outnumber virus deaths in any universe of which we are a part. Suicides are also mitigatable in ways that stress different resources. Committing suicide, in addition, is a personal decision. Getting the virus is not, unless you engage in behavior likely to cause it. So there is a problem here for the libertarians who want to open the country back up but use suicide as an argument the other way. Suicide should fall under the libertarian umbrella of personal freedom. I don't have much patience with this line of argument -- if you're so addicted to consumerism that you can't hack being inside for five or six months, then use your consumerism to buy a gun (or drink some bleach) and save medical facilities some stress.
New Zealand essentially eliminated the virus by going full-on shutdown for about 75 days. Americans were whining and bitching after fewer than 30. So what is it that makes the Kiwis tougher than Americans?
The U.S. will open back up, and it will likely collapse into a black hole sometime in the fall. Then, if it follows the 1918 pattern, you will have New York facing waves several times worse than what it has already experienced and the rest of the country overwhelmed.
Quote: redietz
The U.S. will open back up, and it will likely collapse into a black hole sometime in the fall. Then, if it follows the 1918 pattern, you will have New York facing waves several times worse than what it has already experienced and the rest of the country overwhelmed.
Better to take that chance than a 100% chance of a depression.
One particular donation stood out. The Choctaw Nation recently disposed of their lands, and living in abject poverty send $170.
The donation started an unusual friendship between the two peoples, where Irish schoolchildren collect funds for their Native American counter-parts each Christmas, and The Nations send participants to the Hunger Day parade each year.
Over the weekend, an article appeared in Ireland of the tragedy unfolding in Navajo Nation, and it reminded Ireland of how the Tribes had helped Ireland in its time of need.
By last night, a grassroots effort had raised over $500,000 for the Navajo, Hopi and, Choctaw People.
Quote: redietzSo there is a problem here for the libertarians who want to open the country back up but use suicide as an argument the other way. Suicide should fall under the libertarian umbrella of personal freedom.
Really?
Quote: jjjooogggthere has to be a way. South korea has canceled shut down. I should read their techniques
They had a bad pandemic just a few years ago. They saw how bad it could be and acted with all speed including testing and contact tracing combined with shutdown procedures.
Ultimately if this results in a really huge death toll we will be more prepared ourselves for the next one
Quote: mcallister3200All of the US to varying degrees appear to be taking an approach that both kills the economic engines and doesn’t sufficiently slow down the virus to make the sacrifice beneficial. Best of both worlds lol.
The New York State model. Accountants, debt collectors, 401k managers, dry cleaners, pizza bakers, liquor store workers, bottle redemption workers, all permitted to pile onto fewer subway cars, as they were deemed 'essential'. Virus was able to overwhelm the local hospital system, while simultaneously killing the economy.
Quote: mcallister3200All of the US to varying degrees appear to be taking an approach that both kills the economic engines and doesn’t sufficiently slow down the virus to make the sacrifice beneficial. Best of both worlds lol.
The word, which I just learned a month ago, is kakistocracy.
Evidently, "kakistocracy" and "United States" are linked in a lot of international articles. LOL.
Just answer if you got it right or wrong honestly.
Here goes.
It is decided to hold funeral services for a recent plane crash in the country the disaster took place in as a mass memorial. However the plane crashed precisely on the US/Canadian border. So, where do they bury the survivors. In the USA or in Canada?
Quote: darkoz
It is decided to hold funeral services for a recent plane crash in the country the disaster took place in as a mass memorial. However the plane crashed precisely on the US/Canadian border. So, where do they bury the survivors. In the USA or in Canada?
It has to be decided naturally so you sir a rooster on the US/Canada border. Whichever country the egg rolls to you bury them.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt has to be decided naturally so you sir a rooster on the US/Canada border. Whichever country the egg rolls to you bury them.
Lol read it over again and then check the answer
He burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.Quote: darkozLol read it over again and then check the answer
Quote: unJonHe burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.
Roosters don’t lay eggs.
If I said he was wrong and go back and check the answer I don't think he burned me. I just didn't delineate why he was wrong
Quote: darkozQuote: unJonHe burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.
Roosters don’t lay eggs.
If I said he was wrong and go back and check the answer I don't think he burned me. I just didn't delineate why he was wrong
I knew the answer when I was like 8. It is the kind of trick an uncle pulls on nieces and nephews who are like 8. I replied with a similar question. Back in the day we collected like 10 and called it a "**L*** Test." (Redacted to avoid suspension, if not good enough admins just remove the whole line.)
I will leave it to the board to decide if you got burned or not.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: darkozQuote: unJonHe burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.
Roosters don’t lay eggs.
If I said he was wrong and go back and check the answer I don't think he burned me. I just didn't delineate why he was wrong
I knew the answer when I was like 8. It is the kind of trick an uncle pulls on nieces and nephews who are like 8. I replied with a similar question. Back in the day we collected like 10 and called it a "**L*** Test." (Redacted to avoid suspension, if not good enough admins just remove the whole line.)
I will leave it to the board to decide if you got burned or not.
Like I am familiar with the rooster question
Perhaps you should not answer questions with questions and just give answers
To put it another way, if that had been a question on a school exam and that was your answer I am pretty certain it would have been marked wrong
Quote: darkoz
Like I am familiar with the rooster question
Perhaps you should not answer questions with questions and just give answers
To put it another way, if that had been a question on a school exam and that was your answer I am pretty certain it would have been marked wrong
Do you understand the concept of a joke? Do you understand satire?
Last reply by me, ending the hijack here.
Quote: billryanIs anyone here not wearing a mask in public? If so, may I ask why?
I am not because I am a risk taker,
Quote: billryanIs anyone here not wearing a mask in public? If so, may I ask why?
When I grocery shop because otherwise I starve.
Otherwise no because they do not do anything and make me look silly.
Quote: darkozQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: darkozQuote: unJonHe burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.
Roosters don’t lay eggs.
If I said he was wrong and go back and check the answer I don't think he burned me. I just didn't delineate why he was wrong
I knew the answer when I was like 8. It is the kind of trick an uncle pulls on nieces and nephews who are like 8. I replied with a similar question. Back in the day we collected like 10 and called it a "**L*** Test." (Redacted to avoid suspension, if not good enough admins just remove the whole line.)
I will leave it to the board to decide if you got burned or not.
Like I am familiar with the rooster question
Perhaps you should not answer questions with questions and just give answers
To put it another way, if that had been a question on a school exam and that was your answer I am pretty certain it would have been marked wrong
I agree. Remember what happened when he did that with me.
People will trip over themselves to blame the reason for this on whatever preconceived notions they already had, whoever they were already blaming it on. No comment from me other than we could also think up a more local name if we wanted to name the virus by where it came from.
Quote: mcallister3200https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
People will trip over themselves to blame the reason for this on whatever preconceived notions they already had, whoever they were already blaming it on. No comment from me other than we could also think up a more local name if we wanted to name the virus by where it came from.
I have to keep SMH when I hear "we should have banned travel sooner" as if that is an easy decision. The USA is so connected anything is bound to travel here.
So far this thing is really concentrated in the northeast. NY, NJ, Boston. Imagine if we just said we were sealing their borders. It would contain things, but imagine the reaction!
Quote: billryanIs anyone here not wearing a mask in public? If so, may I ask why?
In the heat and on the beach. NOPE UV light quickly kills the virus in the air.
Outside when it's hot and humid. NOPE. Again, UV light heat and humidity, there's no reason to wear it.
Driving in the car. NOPE There's absolutely no reason to wear it in the car.
Getting gas. NOPE Open air, there's no reason to wear it.
The Nursery buying plants. NOPE
When I go into Cosco to buy protein bars..YES I wear my N95. Bottle necks can be a concern. However, now that the doors are fully opened at my Cosco, we aren't all crowded into and forced to walk through the same column of air. During the lockdown, many businesses made a huge mistake by limiting the number of entrances that customers could walk through. It would have been safer for everyone if they would have increased the number of entrances and exits to buildings. Unfortunately logic and common sense were absent.
Quote: billryanIs anyone here not wearing a mask in public? If so, may I ask why?
I wear one, but I'd prefer to hold my breath when I'm passing too near someone, which is what I was doing before.
If I hold my breath, there's virtually no virus inhaled or exhaled as I pass by someone.
Sticking with he burned you. While his answer is “wrong” it’s clear he knows the answer and is intentionally “wrong” with the same trick that’s embedded in the question. If you had picked up on that, you would not have responded to him as if he didn’t know the answer.Quote: darkozQuote: unJonHe burned you good, darkoz. Reread his answer over again, then see the spoiler.
Roosters don’t lay eggs.
If I said he was wrong and go back and check the answer I don't think he burned me. I just didn't delineate why he was wrong
Somehow it felt more appropriate when I was in fourth grade.
The point was we are all focused on deaths as the indicators of how bad this whole economic situation is
For example DRich (I mistakenly attributed this to Doc apologies) said he feels one million US deaths would make for a minor event.
We need to be analyzing what that means In terms of survivors was my point. Maybe I could have made the point in a better way. But hey, I am Darkoz (AND FOR THE RECORD NO ONE ELSE)
So, let's take one million US dead which I hope doesn't happen.
Some are saying this has a 1% mortality rate. In fact that is being pointed to as a reason this isn't that serious so let's go with that
One million deaths with 1% mortality rate means 100 million Americans were infected.
I'm throwing out some very rough numbers for hypothetical so don't start quoting me medical papers. So let's say a generous 40% are asymptomatic.
That leaves 60 million Americans sick!!! On top of the one million dead.
There are different types of sick. Mild, seriously and severe
Let's assume severe accounts for 20 million. That's 20 million people on respirators and in hospitals for weeks at a time.
If one million dead is a minor event then that means the accordingly 20 million hospitalized must be a minor event too.
I simply disagree. If we wind up with 20 million Americans in the hospitals in a very short time then this will be a real economic disaster
Lost productivity trumps lost humanity. God bless America.
Quote: billryanThe New Math.
Lost productivity trumps lost humanity. God bless America.
Choices must me made. We cannot hide at home forever. We cannot just print money to let people stay home.
Why do so many people think this is a game?
That’s not new math. People have pointed out numerous examples. Speed limits is the classic one. Please go picket all speed limits above 55 mph (or whatever other number you like depending on your math).Quote: billryanThe New Math.
Lost productivity trumps lost humanity. God bless America.
Quote: unJonThat’s not new math. People have pointed out numerous examples. Speed limits is the classic one. Please go picket all speed limits above 55 mph (or whatever other number you like depending on your math).
If a speeding craze killed 70,000 people in a very short time, I suspect you'd have quite a bit of enforcement.
Quote: billryanThe New Math.
Lost productivity trumps lost humanity. God bless America.
New? Not at all!
Always did. Always will.
Cars--- avoidable deaths
Pools--- avoidable deaths
Smoking--- avoidable deaths
Alcohol--- avoidable deaths
Guns--- avoidable deaths
Opening up economy now--- avoidable deaths
Quote: unJonThat’s not new math. People have pointed out numerous examples. Speed limits is the classic one. Please go picket all speed limits above 55 mph (or whatever other number you like depending on your math).
If speeding went from killing 0 Americans six weeks ago, to killing 75,000 now, I probably would be concerned about it.
goal posts moved again. Rather predictable. Go back and read your prior post. You lamented as new math productivity and humanity. Now you admit it’s ok but it depends on how the equation balances. So, wait for it, now you are applying the new math!Quote: billryanIf a speeding craze killed 70,000 people in a very short time, I suspect you'd have quite a bit of enforcement.
Quote: michael99000If speeding went from killing 0 Americans six weeks ago, to killing 75,000 now, I probably would be concerned about it.
Totally agree. But then let’s be honest with ourselves. Quit complaining like this is new math! Embrace that it’s old math and commonly accepted to weigh deaths and economics. And just take the reasonable stand that the math in this instance comes out on the side of preventing deaths.
Quote: michael99000If speeding went from killing 0 Americans six weeks ago, to killing 75,000 now, I probably would be concerned about it.
And that is the extremely narrow focus that makes it hard to reason with people. To you, the 'delta' is important, not the number of actual dead people! The fact that coronavirus will kill 100k or so more people than last year makes you not care that smoking will kill 4 times that figure this year, because, well, it killed that many last year! There is NO DOUBT that if we eliminated smoking and did NOTHING to stop the spread of coronavirus, there would be an overall gain in life expectancy. We in society are not willing to take away the individual's right to smoke, but are willing to take away his right to play basketball.
And remember, the 'open it up-ers' are NOT saying do so exactly as it was before. Have some reasonable social distancing, cleanliness, mask, other rules to lessen the chance of an infection. JUST LIKE we are doing today in supermarkets, dry cleaners, liquor stores, gas stations, bicycle stores, etc.....
I guess I am against seat belt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, most drug laws..... Let the individual decide what his own risk tolerance is.
I don't believe the issue here is dead vs the economy
As has been pointed out there are car and smoking deaths etc etc.
The main issue really is contagion.
If there are more people dying of car accidents than Covid-19 we still wouldn't shutdown the economy for the car accidents... Because when I pass a car accident I am not worried about contracting the accident and bringing the accident home to my wife and kids.
We really should be focused on stopping contagion rather than stopping death from Covid-19 (stopping the deaths will hopefully follow suit)
Quote: SOOPOOAnd that is the extremely narrow focus that makes it hard to reason with people. To you, the 'delta' is important, not the number of actual dead people! The fact that coronavirus will kill 100k or so more people than last year makes you not care that smoking will kill 4 times that figure this year, because, well, it killed that many last year! There is NO DOUBT that if we eliminated smoking and did NOTHING to stop the spread of coronavirus, there would be an overall gain in life expectancy. We in society are not willing to take away the individual's right to smoke, but are willing to take away his right to play basketball.
And remember, the 'open it up-ers' are NOT saying do so exactly as it was before. Have some reasonable social distancing, cleanliness, mask, other rules to lessen the chance of an infection. JUST LIKE we are doing today in supermarkets, dry cleaners, liquor stores, gas stations, bicycle stores, etc.....
I guess I am against seat belt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, most drug laws..... Let the individual decide what his own risk tolerance is.
The delta is critical. We already know how many people will die from cancer, car accidents , heroin overdose per year. It fluctuates a bit but it’s relatively steady. When a cause of death goes from 0 to 75,000 in six weeks, we have no idea where that figure will be six weeks from now. Will it be 100,000, will it double again to 150,000? If the cancer stricken person behind me in line at Shoprite sneezes, I don’t have to worry.
And as far as your “precautions” that will be taken after reopening, give it about a month. You’ll slowly see less and less adherence to all of that , even if the infection numbers are the same or going up. Once you allow people out of their houses and into restaurants, nail salons, casinos, dance clubs , barbershops etc the natural inclination to behave exactly like we did in those places for the last 100 years will take over. How many restaurants can survive with 30% of their prior business. Are all their overhead costs also dropping by 70% ?
Quote: SOOPOOAnd that is the extremely narrow focus that makes it hard to reason with people. To you, the 'delta' is important, not the number of actual dead people! The fact that coronavirus will kill 100k or so more people than last year makes you not care that smoking will kill 4 times that figure this year, because, well, it killed that many last year! There is NO DOUBT that if we eliminated smoking and did NOTHING to stop the spread of coronavirus, there would be an overall gain in life expectancy. We in society are not willing to take away the individual's right to smoke, but are willing to take away his right to play basketball.
And remember, the 'open it up-ers' are NOT saying do so exactly as it was before. Have some reasonable social distancing, cleanliness, mask, other rules to lessen the chance of an infection. JUST LIKE we are doing today in supermarkets, dry cleaners, liquor stores, gas stations, bicycle stores, etc.....
I guess I am against seat belt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, most drug laws..... Let the individual decide what his own risk tolerance is.
If smoking were one hundredth as contagious as this is, I'd be in full agreement. If you caught the virus and died instantly, I might agree, but a persons decision to risk infection can infect dozens.
The same people that refuse to wear a mask now will be rejecting the vaccinations, if and when they are available.
Yesterday, a Tucson man was refused service at a supermarket because he wouldn't wear a mask. So he called some media outlets and set up a scene where he got all emotional and crying that his kids were going to starve because the Mayor is tearing up the constitution by making people wear masks.
Quote: billryanIf smoking were one hundredth as contagious as this is, I'd be in full agreement. If you caught the virus and died instantly, I might agree, but a persons decision to risk infection can infect dozens.
The same people that refuse to wear a mask now will be rejecting the vaccinations, if and when they are available.
Yesterday, a Tucson man was refused service at a supermarket because he wouldn't wear a mask. So he called some media outlets and set up a scene where he got all emotional and crying that his kids were going to starve because the Mayor is tearing up the constitution by making people wear masks.
So it’s not “new math” that you have an issue with?
| Measure to Reduce Covid-19 Deaths | Early Feb | April | Late May |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shut down schools | NO | YES | YES |
| Shut Down Events/Venues with Mass Crowds | NO | YES | YES |
| Shut Down Non-essential retail & services | NO | YES | NO |
| Shut Down quasi-essential businesses | | | |
| ***construction | NO | NO | NO |
| ***gun shops | NO | NO | NO |
| ***real estate agents, transactions | NO | NO | NO |
| ***accountants | NO | NO | NO |
| ***insurance agency offices | NO | NO | NO |
| ***workplaces with <11 people | NO | NO | NO |
| Shut down 'elective' surgeries | NO | YES | NO |
| Practice social distancing | NO | YES | YES |
| Wear face masks in public | NO | YES | YES |
| Wash hands repeatedly | NO | YES | YES |
| Sanitize surfaces in homes and businesses | NO | YES | YES |
| Sanitize Mass Transport: SubWay System | NO | YES (Not in NY) | YES |
| Restrict access to nursing homes | | | |
| *** No visitors, test workers | NO | YES | YES |
| *** Don't return Covid patients until they are not contagious | NO | YES (Not in NY) | YES (?? in NY) |
| Stay at Home | | | |
| ****Low Risk Individuals: Non-binding mandates | NO | YES | No |
| **** High risk individuals (Mandated and/or self-imposed) | NO | YES | YES/ Most |
| Medical treatments to reduce fatalities | NO | Limited | Improving |
My conclusions are
1. that there are many, many measures that will continue to be taken in May that were not being taken in early February. The experience in Sweden has been that these measures are enough to control transmission - but only time will tell.
2. Frankly, in almost all states there have been an enormous number of businesses that were not mandated to be closed, with only a partial list on the above table. In many cases, owners of so-called essential businesses shut down anyway to protect their workers and the public, and to allow themselves the time to make changes to reduce transmission when they did open.
3. New Yorkers have been bedeviled by state and local leaders that have made some grievous mistakes.
4. I am cautiously optimistic about the first phases of the shutdown. I recognize others have a different opinion but I advise them to study the above table.
Quote: darkoz (on page 89 of this thread)Anyway
The point was we are all focused on deaths as the indicators of how bad this whole economic situation is
For example Doc said he feels one million US deaths would make for a minor event.
....
If that is a reference to something that I supposedly said, can you provide a link to such a post? I don't think it matches my opinion at all.
Quote: SOOPOOAnd that is the extremely narrow focus that makes it hard to reason with people. To you, the 'delta' is important, not the number of actual dead people! The fact that coronavirus will kill 100k or so more people than last year makes you not care that smoking will kill 4 times that figure this year, because, well, it killed that many last year! There is NO DOUBT that if we eliminated smoking and did NOTHING to stop the spread of coronavirus, there would be an overall gain in life expectancy. We in society are not willing to take away the individual's right to smoke, but are willing to take away his right to play basketball.
And remember, the 'open it up-ers' are NOT saying do so exactly as it was before. Have some reasonable social distancing, cleanliness, mask, other rules to lessen the chance of an infection. JUST LIKE we are doing today in supermarkets, dry cleaners, liquor stores, gas stations, bicycle stores, etc.....
I guess I am against seat belt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, most drug laws..... Let the individual decide what his own risk tolerance is.
Soopoo,
You're post is spot on! Unfortunately too many gullible people are manipulated by CNN, MSNBC, Twitter, and other social media. So when they see people that they think are famous having coronagasms, they immediately want to echo whatever they hear.
Quote: DocQuote: darkoz (on page 89 of this thread)Anyway
The point was we are all focused on deaths as the indicators of how bad this whole economic situation is
For example Doc said he feels one million US deaths would make for a minor event.
....
If that is a reference to something that I supposedly said, can you provide a link to such a post? I don't think it matches my opinion at all.
My apologies. It was DRich in a different thread. I made an adjustment to the post in question.
That capital D must have stuck out in my memory as Doc or maybe DR(rich) said Doc in my mind's eye
