Coronavirus math
Quote: SOOPOOYou are mistaking Fantasyland for Palisades Amusement Park. As a child, my father took me there frequently. Just across the George Washington Bridge.
Fantasyland is closer to Atlantic City.
Wasn't there a Fantasy Land near Action Park/ Great Gorge? I remember staying at the Playboy Club and the older teens going to AP while the younger kids went to a Fantasy park.
I believe Soopoo is referring to Story Book Land, which is off the Black Horse Pike between AC and Egg Harbor.
Quote: billryanWasn't there a Fantasy Land near Action Park/ Great Gorge? I remember staying at the Playboy Club and the older teens going to AP while the younger kids went to a Fantasy park.
I believe Soopoo is referring to Story Book Land, which is off the Black Horse Pike between AC and Egg Harbor.
I googled Fantasy Land and found two hits near AC. Palisades is ingrained in my memory.
I loved Palisades Park. We'd go about once a year. The Funhouse was wild.There used to be a park in the Bronx called Freeddom Land. I think I went there as a small boy but don't remember it. My family would go to the park near LaGuardia---Adventue Inn or something and Rye Playland. I didnt go to Coney Island much, but as soon as we could drive Action Park was the place. That place was truly insane. Traction Park was more like it.
Quote: SOOPOOI googled Fantasy Land and found two hits near AC. Palisades is ingrained in my memory.
It is a general term for something not possible. Like Thorton Mellon told Dr. Bombay in "Back to School" when Bombay ignored the realities of the business world for what was in books.
"Then there are long term costs like waste disposal. I don't know if you know who runs that industry, but I assure you it's not the Boy Scouts."
Quote: unJonSo NY did an antibody test on 3,000 people and 14% tested positive. If that stands up as representative, it would imply a 0.5% mortality rate.
Are you factoring in the tens of thousands of cases currently known? How many deaths are you assigning to that group?
Calm down dude. I’m repeating what the press reported from the Cuomo news conference. Google is your friend.Quote: billryanAre you factoring in the tens of thousands of cases currently known? How many deaths are you assigning to that group?
Not my own analysis here. It implies 2.7m NYers have or had COVID-19. That’s certainly way higher than estimates ore this study. There are some reasonable questions being asked about the representativeness of the sample. All preliminary and a developing story.
Quote: unJonCalm down dude. I’m repeating what the press reported from the Cuomo news conference. Google is your friend.
Not my own analysis here. It implies 2.7m NYers have or had COVID-19. That’s certainly way higher than estimates ore this study. There are some reasonable questions being asked about the representativeness of the sample. All preliminary and a developing story.
Where did you get your mortality rate? I dont see it in Cuomo's report. Did I miss it or did you come up with it?
It's a pretty simple question.
What I read from his figures are there are still about 17 million New Yorkers yet to come in contact with it. Does that mean another two million infections are still to come?
(bold added)Quote: billryanWhere did you get your mortality rate? I dont see it in Cuomo's report. Did I miss it or did you come up with it?
It's a pretty simple question.
What I read from his figures are there are still about 17 million New Yorkers yet to come in contact with it. Does that mean another two million infections are still to come?
Why the attitude? Sort of ironic that you tell people to use Google in other threads but failed here.
I found it again with twenty seconds of Googling. And I answered the question in the original post. I didn’t come up with it. You missed it.
Here, let me google it for you:
Quote:Still, Cuomo said the preliminary data added to the state’s understanding of the virus and at least initially indicated a fatality rate of about 0.5% of confirmed cases that is far lower than some experts feared.
On a personal note, my friend who was intubated for 14 days has just been extubated. Her daughter said she responded to commands but still had a mask on and did not talk. She could only communicate to her via FaceTime. After 8 or 9 days I was close to giving up hope. Now over the next few days we shall see if she will return to normal or if she will have some permanent disability from it.
14% would be a great number, but I'd bet it's the upper bound of the statistics, and even this could be lower than reality and the lower bounds lower. Too early and too optimistic I'd say.
Dated by a few days, but the best short summary I've read of the position we are in.
Very concerning, quite a nightmare. So scary, it's like reality isn't real. I've seen articles like this before, but not in a while. It's almost as if, I don't even know how to say it or what I'm trying to say. Reminds me of something from Legion. I'm thinking we're just going to have to deal with this and let the dead pile up, this is a world population cure maybe. If this is true, it's endemic, will circle the world and never go away.
If this were true it would mean:
1. Social distancing isn't working very well for some reason, as if there is transmission through a route that hasn't been yet identified
2. The great majority of cases are asymptomatic.
However, I am skeptical. I suspect that the testing is probably screwed up and unreliable.
Quote: gordonm888
However, I am skeptical. I suspect that the testing is probably screwed up and unreliable.
your post pointed out what I have felt for a long time
there is contradictory info out there even considering it is coming from supposedly authoritative sources
that is what makes this thing so horrible
we're dealing with the unknown
Quote: gordonm888I have heard third-hand that the NY tests are now showing a 20% infection among randomly selected people without symptoms. Can anyone confirm?
If this were true it would mean:
1. Social distancing isn't working very well for some reason, as if there is transmission through a route that hasn't been yet identified
2. The great majority of cases are asymptomatic.
However, I am skeptical. I suspect that the testing is probably screwed up and unreliable.
The infection rates vary by region and break down like this:
New York City 21.2%
Long Island 16.7%
Westchester 11.7%
Upstate 3.9%
Statewide 13.9%
Quote: UP84The infection rates vary by region and break down like this:
New York City 21.2%
Long Island 16.7%
Westchester 11.7%
Upstate 3.9%
Statewide 13.9%
Seems population density has a lot to do with it.
Quote: AZDuffmanSeems population density has a lot to do with it.
Moreso the fact that NYC did not do real social distancing. Fact. The subways were packed. The parks were packed. Supermarkets were super packed. You think the corner bodega enforced staying 6 feet from each other?
On my personal note, my friend was extubated yesterday after being on a ventilator for two weeks. Her daughter says she is now talking and feisty, if still a bit confused. I hope to be able to speak with her today. Her lungs are doing well enough to be transferred out of the ICU later today.
Quote: SOOPOOMoreso the fact that NYC did not do real social distancing. Fact. The subways were packed. The parks were packed. Supermarkets were super packed. You think the corner bodega enforced staying 6 feet from each other?
After all the screaming by Gov. Fredo. And the mayor. Did not keep their own house in order. Of course NYC it will be very hard to enforce except maybe on Staten Island. Heavy policing is needed just to keep NYC civil and not falling into the range of a collapsed society. Getting people to coop up in those small apartments has to be near impossible. Then add in NYC citizens are generally not accused of being preppers on any level. I remember reading about the "kitcheniestas" who used their ovens to store their shoes. They never cooked, ordered takeaway or ate out. A population like NYC is just a magnet for this kind of thing. But upstate of the Tap should start reopening.
Quote:On my personal note, my friend was extubated yesterday after being on a ventilator for two weeks. Her daughter says she is now talking and feisty, if still a bit confused. I hope to be able to speak with her today. Her lungs are doing well enough to be transferred out of the ICU later today.
Nice!
Total bu****t.Quote: AZDuffman...Heavy policing is needed just to keep NYC civil and not falling into the range of a collapsed society...
I live in NYC and if anything the day-to-day level of civility here has gone way up since COVID. All of this with a significantly REDUCED police presence.
Very glad to hear your friend is doing better!Quote: SOOPOOOn my personal note, my friend was extubated yesterday after being on a ventilator for two weeks. Her daughter says she is now talking and feisty, if still a bit confused. I hope to be able to speak with her today. Her lungs are doing well enough to be transferred out of the ICU later today.
Quote: UP84Total bu****t.
I live in NYC and if anything the day-to-day level of civility here has gone way up since COVID. All of this with a significantly REDUCED police presence.
You are probably just used to the craziness. Like people in NYC who call a 330 sq ft apartment "huge."
It's a shame ignorant people use tragedy to spread their hatred, but I suppose they can't help themselves.
Nope, just used to people who don't have a deep sense of what life is really like in NYC.Quote: AZDuffmanYou are probably just used to the craziness. Like people in NYC who call a 330 sq ft apartment "huge."
Quote: billryanMy friends father died a couple of days ago. He was 85ish and may or may not have died of this. When they called my old church in Jackson Heights for a funeral, he was told it would be a few weeks. My Parish lost 23 members in the September 11th attacks. They've lost over 50 to this.
It's a shame ignorant people use tragedy to spread their hatred, but I suppose they can't help themselves.
Bill, sorry about all these losses.
Quote: UP84Nope, just used to people who don't have a deep sense of what life is really like in NYC.
I have an idea. Packed like rats with 26999 people other than you packed per square mile. Newcomer women thinking it is "Sex and the City." Spending almost half your income on rent. Rarely leaving the area because traffic is such a hassle.
Quote: AZDuffmanI have an idea. Packed like rats with 26999 people other than you packed per square mile. Newcomer women thinking it is "Sex and the City." Spending almost half your income on rent. Rarely leaving the area because traffic is such a hassle.
More 2-D thinking in a 3-D world. I suppose it is hard to enjoy a mosaic when you can only see in black and white.
Quote: billryanMore 2-D thinking in a 3-D world. I suppose it is hard to enjoy a mosaic when you can only see in black and white.
I lived in NYS for years. Been to NYC/LI many times. People came to my office and just could not believe how much more livable it was. Days after I got fired a recruiter called me and asked what I thought of Long Island. Told her I hated the place. The City was even worse. Like I said elsewhere, I could see living transient there, maybe 6 months at most, in corporate housing.
If I had to live in that kind of density I would rather move to Singapore which is at least clean.
Quote: AZDuffmanI lived in NYS for years. Been to NYC/LI many times. People came to my office and just could not believe how much more livable it was. Days after I got fired a recruiter called me and asked what I thought of Long Island. Told her I hated the place. The City was even worse. Like I said elsewhere, I could see living transient there, maybe 6 months at most, in corporate housing.
If I had to live in that kind of density I would rather move to Singapore which is at least clean.
It's okay. Not everyone is meant for the big time. That doesn't make you any less special.
One twin died when just a few weeks old and the other grew up to fly on multiple bombing missions during WW2 and worked construction on the World Trade Center. He said he had to live large because he was living for two.
Quote: billryanInteresting story of a man whose twin died in the Spanish Flu pandemic and who died this week from CV19.
One twin died when just a few weeks old and the other grew up to fly on multiple bombing missions during WW2 and worked construction on the World Trade Center. He said he had to live large because he was living for two.
Unusual. Suddenly reminded me of the Japanese guy who survived two atom bombs. (Worst travel plan ever, btw)
Quote: billryanIt's okay. Not everyone is meant for the big time. That doesn't make you any less special.
I can do without the big time quite nicely. And live better. I'll just do Rao's at Caesars.
I'd say this is over.
Well at least this seems to confirm one thing...the coronavirus IS spread by sperm.Quote: onenickelmiraclehttps://www.yahoo.com/news/four-u-state-prisons-nearly-180100661.html
I'd say this is over.
Quote: UP84Well at least this seems to confirm one thing...the coronavirus IS spread by sperm.
LOL. Unfortunately probably fecal matter.
Quote: onenickelmiraclehttps://www.yahoo.com/news/four-u-state-prisons-nearly-180100661.html
I'd say this is over.
Onenickelmiracle,
Most people completely missed the incredible significance of your post. The stats in the link is amazing. "96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic."
What if there's a few strains circulating but only one or two of them are aggressive?
2.8% over 65, vs, 15.2% over 65 in the US regular population.
Quote: rxwineThe prison population is young on average.
2.8% over 65, vs, 15.2% over 65 in the US regular population.
I'm guessing you that didn't read the article.
"They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms.
"
I was told that many universities hold and share deadly viruses.
https://www.propublica.org/article/new-evidence-disputes-case-against-bruce-e-ivins?fbclid=IwAR12wZq-eEiLRKq_0S3Huy20-XBq8nA2zY4_2vbbvNna67ZATzkA5VM4x3c
https://intallaght.ie/has-the-dark-web-gone-too-far-coronavirus-infected-blood-sold/?fbclid=IwAR0Iu1Z2r-DAJdkK5TTShsMrt8zmoFxhtbIFj1UdaE5eFEZiHNaOD9RWZfw
Quote: KeyserOnenickelmiracle,
Most people completely missed the incredible significance of your post. The stats in the link is amazing. "96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic."
What if there's a few strains circulating but only one or two of them are aggressive?
Good question.
Does that mean via antibody tests? Meaning they had coronavirus IN THE PAST and of course are now asymptomatic? Or actually presently are positive via the swab mRNA test?
I would be stunned if the percentage of people with coronavirus that are TOTALLY asymptomatic exceeds 50%. Now, the number who just get a little sick, like a cold or the flu, might get to 90%, but that is NOT asymptomatic. If this virus just had the virulence of the flu we would barely be talking about it, and we certainly wouldn't have shut down the world over it.
Friend who was on a ventilator for 2 weeks now is doing much better according to her daughter. Says she seems to be fully with it now (was delirious first two days off of ventilator), just very difficult to speak due to sore throat. Having a breathing tube in for two weeks must be just awful. They are just allowed to FaceTime once a day, as they use the nurse's phone. Hopefully she gets her own phone today.
Having seen families and friends with their critically ill patients throughout my career, it is hard to fathom not being able to have ANY loved ones visit you.
Quote: KeyserMore people are currently dying now because they don't have immediate access to elective surgeries like heart bypass, breast cancer surgery, etc., than are dying from the virus.
Also wart removal and eyeglass prescriptions.
What's the source of that statistic?Quote: KeyserMore people are currently dying now because they don't have immediate access to elective surgeries like heart bypass, breast cancer surgery, etc., than are dying from the virus.
*I have no idea how random it was. Billryan, please use Google for more info.
Quote: jjjoooggg96% would have 4% close to death. Maybe, these tests are giving false positives.
No they wouldn't. The reason why we have confirmed about 56.8k deaths over 1.01M US cases (5.6% mortality rate) is that we are STILL usually testing only the notably sick! Some prison systems in that article tested the entire inmate population! If we did that for everyone in America, we could have well over 10M positive cases or more. But our deaths would still be around 56.8k. Very few asymptomatic people are being tested.
Quote: jjjooogggSome believe that deadly viruses are for sale on the dark web.
https://intallaght.ie/has-the-dark-web-gone-too-far-coronavirus-infected-blood-sold/?fbclid=IwAR0Iu1Z2r-DAJdkK5TTShsMrt8zmoFxhtbIFj1UdaE5eFEZiHNaOD9RWZfw
What a dumb headline. Like never mind child pornography and murder-for-hire, people are selling blood!
