Probability after 100 hands
My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.
If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.
Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.
TIA
Quote: LiverzzzHi,
My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.
If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.
Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.
TIA
Are you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?
If they were paying 20% back if you lost your first hand, but you had to play 100 hands to get the bonus, then that's worth about .1% (half you get $0, half you get $20, i.e. average = $10 rebate for $10k bets).
If they were playing 20% back if you lost your "first hand" and you didn't have to play any other hands, then your aim is to play as many "first hands" as possible, so stick to regular BJ as it's quicker.
Quote: GWAEAre you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?
100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.
The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?
For clarity, I am doing $500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get $100 back.
Quote: Liverzzz100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.
The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?
For clarity, I am doing $500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get $100 back.
That is not enough info. You keep saying first hands, but how many subsequent hands are there that dont have the rebate? Are you doing 100 first hands and 1000 non rebated hands?
To figure it out exactly we'd need to know a few more details.
If you split and win one and lose one do you get a rebate on the loss or do the two results count as 'no loss'?
If you split and lose both do you get a rebate on both losses?
If you double down and lose do you get 20% back on the entire bet or just initial bet?
And of course what are the general rules for the BJ game in question?
Depending on the answers to the above questions there will be some alterations to "basic strategy", by the way.
you did not state the specifics of the game (# of decks, etc.) except to flat bet.Quote: LiverzzzMy casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.
If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting?
I used a basic distribution (6 deck) in a Markov chain and got this (rounded down values)
probability of a net loss: 50.25%
probability of ending even: 1.74%
probability of a net profit: 48.01%
looks to be close to a 'fair coin flip' flipped fairly
edit: I misread your 1st post and my results do not take in the 20% rebate for each loss.
back to start
Quote: GWAEThat is not enough info. You keep saying first hands, but how many subsequent hands are there that dont have the rebate? Are you doing 100 first hands and 1000 non rebated hands?
I only play hands which offer a 20% cashback. No hands will be played that don't have this rebate/cashback
Quote: SOOPOOLet's make it easy first. If we are just talking about a coin toss betting $500 you win $500 1/2 the time and lose $400 1/2 the time. So your average is win $50.
To figure it out exactly we'd need to know a few more details.
If you split and win one and lose one do you get a rebate on the loss or do the two results count as 'no loss'?
The rebate is only on total losses over a 24 hour period, 20% up to a maximum of $100. The above situation wouldn't result in a rebate
If you split and lose both do you get a rebate on both losses?
Only up to a maximum of $100. So if I split a $500 hand and lost both, I would only get $100 back.
If you double down and lose do you get 20% back on the entire bet or just initial bet?
Just the initial bet
And of course what are the general rules for the BJ game in question?
My game of choice is Blackjack Switch(6 deck), doing 2x$250 hands per game, as I believe this offers a slightly higher RTP than regular blackjack.
The usual rules are in play, such as dealer hitting on soft 17, blackjack pays even money,
If dealer gets 22, all other hands get pushed, but a player’s blackjack wins over the dealer’s 22.
Because the rebate is only up to $100 and I am doing 2x$250 hands, I am sometimes a little reluctant to double and split, especially on the 'weaker' double/split hands. This is my only slight deviation from basic strategy.
Depending on the answers to the above questions there will be some alterations to "basic strategy", by the way.
Is this a real physical casino or an on line casino?
Quote: SOOPOOI am almost sure to best utilize this loss rebate you should bet regular blackjack at $500 a hand. Exactly when to double or split would require more thought than I’m willing to put into it. Can you do this only at blackjack or can you do this on single zero roulette or pass line craps as alternatives?
Is this a real physical casino or an on line casino?
Would Blackjack Switch not be a better option as it has a slightly lower house edge?
It's valid for card games only so would rule out roulette/craps unfortunately
This is for an online casino
Quote: LiverzzzWould Blackjack Switch not be a better option as it has a slightly lower house edge?
It's valid for card games only so would rule out roulette/craps unfortunately
This is for an online casino
I think you want all $500 on one hand instead of $250 on two hands, if I remember the rules of BJ switch correctly. When getting a 20% loss rebate the exact house edge on the base game, be it .8% or .9% is not extremely significant.
I now return to my original comment. I doubt that you ever get paid. But good luck.
Quote: SOOPOO
I now return to my original comment. I doubt that you ever get paid. But good luck.
Why do you say that? I have been paid/rebated already a few times. I just wanted to clarify the probability of me profiting over time with this. Seeing as winning a Blackjack hand is almost a 50/50 chance, with low variance, am I right in thinking that a 20% rebate offers very good value?
Quote: LiverzzzWhy do you say that? I have been paid/rebated already a few times. I just wanted to clarify the probability of me profiting over time with this. Seeing as winning a Blackjack hand is almost a 50/50 chance, with low variance, am I right in thinking that a 20% rebate offers very good value?
This is strictly opinion without numbers. Yes, a 20% rebate on this game is very good value. It's beyond my skill set to quantify it. I THINK it's worth 4 to 5%, (I could easily be wrong) so overall, you should be playing Switch with an edge around 3 - 4%, with Optimal Strategy.
That's said in a hypothetical world. Not knowing the casino, with it being online, not knowing their T&C, their track record of paying out, the veracity of the software they use in offering the game, the jurisdiction from which they operate, a dozen other things, it would purely scare the crap out of me to risk the kind of money you're ready to put up there.
You could EASILY be the pigeon being set up in all of this, testing small deposits and withdrawals. What do they care if you've taken out a few hundred or a thousand so far, if you're willing to put $50,000 in action in 24 hours? Nice return on their initial investment on you if they suddenly find some "reason" not to pay you. The stories are everywhere of online casinos doing this to people.
But, yeah, I personally would be happy to play this promotion in a casino I trusted on BJ Switch.
