Liverzzz
Joined: Jul 11, 2019
• Posts: 6
July 11th, 2019 at 1:47:43 AM permalink
Hi,

My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.

Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.

TIA
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
July 11th, 2019 at 2:34:04 AM permalink
Quote: Liverzzz

Hi,

My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.

Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.

TIA

Are you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 1954
July 11th, 2019 at 2:41:14 AM permalink
Congratulations if you know perfect strategy for Blackjack Switch, it's not easy to master. The exact House Edge for will depend on the rules ( see https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/switch/ ). I'm not sure what you mean by playing all 100 hands as a "first hand", but suppose they paid you 20% of your average bet for playing 100 hands, then it is essentially reduces the House Edge by .2% (they're paying you \$20 to play 100 hands at \$100 = \$10k total bet).

If they were paying 20% back if you lost your first hand, but you had to play 100 hands to get the bonus, then that's worth about .1% (half you get \$0, half you get \$20, i.e. average = \$10 rebate for \$10k bets).

If they were playing 20% back if you lost your "first hand" and you didn't have to play any other hands, then your aim is to play as many "first hands" as possible, so stick to regular BJ as it's quicker.
Liverzzz
Joined: Jul 11, 2019
• Posts: 6
July 11th, 2019 at 3:04:34 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Are you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?

100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.

The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?

For clarity, I am doing \$500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get \$100 back.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 8854
July 11th, 2019 at 4:51:02 AM permalink
If you are getting \$100 a hand, simply play a thousand hands and walk away.
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
July 11th, 2019 at 5:33:21 AM permalink
Quote: Liverzzz

100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.

The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?

For clarity, I am doing \$500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get \$100 back.

That is not enough info. You keep saying first hands, but how many subsequent hands are there that dont have the rebate? Are you doing 100 first hands and 1000 non rebated hands?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
July 11th, 2019 at 6:25:04 AM permalink
He's going to play 100 hands where he gets a 20% rebate on each hand (without payback).
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 6694
July 11th, 2019 at 7:10:22 AM permalink
Let's make it easy first. If we are just talking about a coin toss betting \$500 you win \$500 1/2 the time and lose \$400 1/2 the time. So your average is win \$50.

To figure it out exactly we'd need to know a few more details.

If you split and win one and lose one do you get a rebate on the loss or do the two results count as 'no loss'?

If you split and lose both do you get a rebate on both losses?

If you double down and lose do you get 20% back on the entire bet or just initial bet?

And of course what are the general rules for the BJ game in question?

Depending on the answers to the above questions there will be some alterations to "basic strategy", by the way.
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
July 11th, 2019 at 7:55:16 AM permalink
Quote: Liverzzz

My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting?

you did not state the specifics of the game (# of decks, etc.) except to flat bet.
I used a basic distribution (6 deck) in a Markov chain and got this (rounded down values)

probability of a net loss: 50.25%
probability of ending even: 1.74%
probability of a net profit: 48.01%

looks to be close to a 'fair coin flip' flipped fairly

edit: I misread your 1st post and my results do not take in the 20% rebate for each loss.
back to start
Last edited by: 7craps on Jul 11, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Liverzzz
Joined: Jul 11, 2019