My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.

Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.

TIA

Quote:LiverzzzHi,

My casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting? I appreciate it's a quite a small sample size but being able to play 1000+ first hands will be difficult for me to achieve.

Using standard Blackjack with house edge of 0.46%, but can also use Blackjack Switch as presume this would be a better choice. Obviously using perfect strategy for both.

TIA

Are you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?

If they were paying 20% back if you lost your first hand, but you had to play 100 hands to get the bonus, then that's worth about .1% (half you get $0, half you get $20, i.e. average = $10 rebate for $10k bets).

If they were playing 20% back if you lost your "first hand" and you didn't have to play any other hands, then your aim is to play as many "first hands" as possible, so stick to regular BJ as it's quicker.

Quote:GWAEAre you playing 100 hands only and each one gets a 20% rebate or is the rebate done after the 100 based on total loss?

100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.

The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?

For clarity, I am doing $500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get $100 back.

Quote:Liverzzz100 hands is an average figure of how many I will be able to do.

The 20% rebate is on each individual hand, which I imagine will increase the value a reasonable amount?

For clarity, I am doing $500 hands, so for each hand I lose I will get $100 back.

That is not enough info. You keep saying first hands, but how many subsequent hands are there that dont have the rebate? Are you doing 100 first hands and 1000 non rebated hands?

To figure it out exactly we'd need to know a few more details.

If you split and win one and lose one do you get a rebate on the loss or do the two results count as 'no loss'?

If you split and lose both do you get a rebate on both losses?

If you double down and lose do you get 20% back on the entire bet or just initial bet?

And of course what are the general rules for the BJ game in question?

Depending on the answers to the above questions there will be some alterations to "basic strategy", by the way.

you did not state the specifics of the game (# of decks, etc.) except to flat bet.Quote:LiverzzzMy casino will give me 20% back on losses(as cash) on my first hand of Blackjack.

If I play 100 hands(all counting as a 'first hand'), using the same stakes each time, what is the probability of profiting?

I used a basic distribution (6 deck) in a Markov chain and got this (rounded down values)

probability of a net loss: 50.25%

probability of ending even: 1.74%

probability of a net profit: 48.01%

looks to be close to a 'fair coin flip' flipped fairly

edit: I misread your 1st post and my results do not take in the 20% rebate for each loss.

back to start

Quote:GWAEThat is not enough info. You keep saying first hands, but how many subsequent hands are there that dont have the rebate? Are you doing 100 first hands and 1000 non rebated hands?

I only play hands which offer a 20% cashback. No hands will be played that don't have this rebate/cashback