Math needed for exact number of blackjack hands

No this isnt a martina mcbride post. No neg prog angles. Just need some help or a link

I havent posted in years (correction this account was made in 2017.. But I only logged in because google remembered the password.. Google I take back what I said about you) but I'm on here reading a lot. My proof? This forum is a great place to go if you need people who know quite a bit when it comes to math.. Or you want made fun of. Ha

Anyway.. My question.

Is there any way to show a perfect statistically ideal example of what would happen in 100 hands under (again) perfect circumstances. Heck.. Call it fantasy blackjack if you want.

So example..
In 100 hands at a bj every 21 hands.. That's 4 bjs.
Win 43, tie 9

But the tricky part...
How would you show the exact streaks?

Again.. I get it you could get a streak of 15 right out the gate and it would be statistically accurate..

BUT..

I want to know the ideal for 100 hands. IE.. Anything with a probability of less than 1% is discounted because I would need 200+ hands to show it. Make sense?

So how many exact streaks of 2 wins? How many single wins and losses that arent streaks? How many losses of exactly seven? How many wins of exactly 3, 4.. Etc and right on down the list.

Make sense?

Hypothetical example
Wins:
23 streaks of 1 and only 1
12 streaks of exactly 2
7 streaks of exactly 3
3 streaks of exactly 4
2 streaks of exactly 5
1 streak of 6
No streaks of 7 because the probablitity is less than 1%

All I see is the normal statistics about a streak of 1 can also be a part of a streak of 2. I dont want that. That's easy. I want to know how to isolate them into exacts.. If you pardon the grammar.

How does one figure this out? Is there a way? And besides the obvious of what I mentioned and we all know about statistically anything can show up at any time and becomes more probable the longer it doesnt show... Am I missing anything with my thinking?

I always try and google for a day or two before consulting the big guns.

So.. Can you do it?


PS.. Are all titles capped now? I dont wanna yell. I swear I had the caps off..

Quote: Mixxlb07

<snip>Hypothetical example
Wins:
23 streaks of 1 and only 1
12 streaks of exactly 2
7 streaks of exactly 3
3 streaks of exactly 4
2 streaks of exactly 5
1 streak of 6
No streaks of 7 because the probablitity is less than 1%
<snip>

Mixxlb07,

Wow... that's 23 + 2*12 + 3*7 + 4*3 + 2*5 + 6 = 96 wins in 100 rounds: impressive!

Kidding aside, how do you want to handle splits? Are you counting wins by the hand or by the round? For example, if in a round you split twice (for three hands) and win two and lose one, is that one win (for the round), or is that some combination of two wins and one loss (for the hand)?

For that matter, how do you want to count pushes? Does a push end a streak, or do you simply ignore it?

Finally, what house rules are you using? Are you counting, or just playing B.S.?

Dog Hand

Haha right right

Thanks for getting back. And I enjoy a good chuckle even at my expense. Helps a person learn and grow you know? No time for baby egos.

I guess I could have had the hypo example make more sense! Ha

What I personally have been doing for doubles is counting as two wins or losses. Splits the same unless they cancel, then I count it as a push

But it's really whatever makes more sense mathematically.
I'm a novice counter, don't have the bankroll.. divorce.. Long story. But keep track of my practice play in simulator in blocks of 100. I wanted to track some deviation stuff and just getting my feet wet with other math. Want to proceed on to markov chains and stuff. Because it's been 15 years since college and I've used probably 10% since then. Make matters worse.. They sent me straight to AP math because of my test scores and I was never taught more than basics in probability. Skipped statistics class entirely. Casino games are the thing bringing me back.

Anyway.. Any round number divisible by 100 probably works you know?

I found this.. Ironically right after I posted.. After searching for days..

streakchart

I double checked the formatting code.. Works on the preview.. But doesnt seem to work once I save.. Just in case.. Here's some redundancy:


Ugh. Still not showing. Time for me to recap the forum rules I guess.

Title of the thread was: "STREAKS IN BLACKJACK ... SOME ACTUAL DATA ..."
Posted here on WOV by DorothyGale

I could really just divide the million hands (info on the chart) by 10,000 and see what fits in a hundred. But I dont just want to know.. I want to know how. Right?