Sm0key
Sm0key
Joined: Mar 1, 2018
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:00:00 AM permalink
Hi folks. There is a casino promotion running that gives you points for clearing different objectives:

Get BJ two times in a row
Win a hand with 5 cards or more
Win 4 hands in a row
Recieve a hand with 777
Get 3 Aces or more in a hand

The deck is 8 shoes with 0.71% house edge (no DAS, no re-splitting, dealer peeks on A not 10, 3:2).

The prizes are these:

1 completed objective - Nothing
2 completed objectives - 25
3 completed objectives - 50
4 completed objectives - 100
5 completed objectives - 500

Min bet is 5.

Is there any positive expectation in any of it? Should all 5 be aimed at or stop somewhere in the middle?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:06:42 AM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

Hi folks. There is a casino promotion running that gives you points for clearing different objectives:

Get BJ two times in a row
Win a hand with 5 cards or more
Win 4 hands in a row
Recieve a hand with 777
Get 3 Aces or more in a hand

The deck is 8 shoes with 0.71% house edge (no DAS, no re-splitting, dealer peeks on A not 10, 3:2).

The prizes are these:

1 completed objective - Nothing
2 completed objectives - 25
3 completed objectives - 50
4 completed objectives - 100
5 completed objectives - 500

Min bet is 5.

Is there any positive expectation in any of it? Should all 5 be aimed at or stop somewhere in the middle?

Without doing the maths, I'd strongly suggest that this is not +EV
Each of those objectives is pretty improbable... Rather a lot really. and the scale of rewards for achieving them is truly abysmal to see 5 completed objectives in a session would probably take wayyy over 24 hours of continual play, each hand grinding down your bankroll relentlessly.
Also, it sounds like an online game with those rules. Do you trust the casino... And do they have any stupid wagering requirements on the bonus wins? That would be serious insult to injury.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Sm0key
Sm0key
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:13:57 AM permalink
No there are no wagering requirements and yes i trust them. The jump from 4 to 5 completed looks like one of those progressive jackpot/royal flush video poker type of things so i was thinking maybe it's value as long as you keep playing until you finish.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:21:28 AM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

No there are no wagering requirements and yes i trust them. The jump from 4 to 5 completed looks like one of those progressive jackpot/royal flush video poker type of things so i was thinking maybe it's value as long as you keep playing until you finish.

I'll agree with one thing (intuitively) the 500 is the prize to aspire to. But the amount of play to reach that goal would be massive and I'd be confident that you will have wasted 500 of bankroll way before getting there.
It hardly matters, but is it 500 + all the other lower tiers collected along the way, or just 500?
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
RS
RS
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:42:58 AM permalink
In order to break even, you'd need the cycle to be....

2 obj - 704
3 obj - 1,408
4 obj - 2,816
5 obj - 14,084

If the cycle is less than that for that number of objectives, assuming you're playing 5E hands (my American computer doesn't do Euro symbols*), then it's going to be +EV.


Hitting 2 BJ's in a row is about 1 in 446. (1/((4/13)*(1/13)*2))^2

Not sure about winning with 5 cards or more....although in my experience, that's going to be pretty low....probably the easiest one on there. Not sure about three Aces nor 777. Side question (not that it'd help me), does it need to be exactly 777? What if you get 7-2-7-7?

Winning 4 hands in a row, excluding pushes, should be about 0.48^4 = 1 in 18.83.


You should, at bear minimum, have +EV if you just go for the "win 4-in-a-row" and "win a 5+ card hand" and collect the 25E bonus. Not sure about the others. I'd bet each of those objectives is going to be +EV. As far as if it's worth it and the time spent on it, that's for you personally to decide.

Not that it can't, but I refuse to let it do that.
It's a piece of cake to bake a pretty cake. If the way is hazy. You gotta do the cookin' by the book. You know you can't be lazy. Never use a messy recipe. The cake will end up crazy. If you do the cookin' by the book. Then you'll have a... Break it down! Lemme see you bake it up! Drop that down low and pick that up. Break it down! Lemme see you bake it up! Drop that down low and pick that up Now back that Hey! Now back that. Hey! Now bake that. Hey! Now bake that. Hey! It's a piece of cake to bake a pretty cake (WHAT!) If the way is hazy (OKAY!) You gotta do the cookin' by the book, (WHAT!) You know you can't be lazy (YEAH!) Never use a messy recipe, (WHAT!) The cake will end up crazy (OKAY!) If you do the cookin' by the book, (YEEAAHHHH!) Then you'll have a...cake! Rub that, it's yours! Grab this, it's yours! Rub that, it's yours! Grab this, it's yours! Now turn around, put that on. Grind, make it get a little bigger! Now turn around, put that on. Grind, make it get a little bigger! You gotta do the cookin' by the book! HEY!
Sm0key
Sm0key
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September 11th, 2018 at 4:26:18 AM permalink
@OnceDear The wins do not accumulate no

What is a cycle and how do i know if it's less or more?

It has to be 777 as i understand it.

What do you approximate my EV at for 2 completed objectives? I want to maximize my value irrespective of time spent.
DRich
DRich
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September 11th, 2018 at 6:44:19 AM permalink
Quote: Sm0key



What do you approximate my EV at for 2 completed objectives? I want to maximize my value irrespective of time spent.



I believe hitting two of the objectives and quitting would be +EV. Winning four hands in a row is very common. Winning a hand with five cards is not hard if that is the objective and you abandon basic strategy.

I would play basic strategy until I won four in a row and then adjust strategy to get a five card winner. I have no idea how to do the math but it definitely seems positive to me.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Sm0key
Sm0key
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September 11th, 2018 at 6:50:39 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I believe hitting two of the objectives and quitting would be +EV. Winning four hands in a row is very common. Winning a hand with five cards is not hard if that is the objective and you abandon basic strategy.

I would play basic strategy until I won four in a row and then adjust strategy to get a five card winner. I have no idea how to do the math but it definitely seems positive to me.



How would you go about getting a 5 card win?
unJon
unJon
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September 11th, 2018 at 7:03:12 AM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

How would you go about getting a 5 card win?

Follow BS with the five card Charlie rules.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 11th, 2018 at 7:04:41 AM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

@OnceDear The wins do not accumulate no

What is a cycle and how do i know if it's less or more?

It has to be 777 as i understand it.

What do you approximate my EV at for 2 completed objectives? I want to maximize my value irrespective of time spent.

So the bonuses are tiered. I've assumed that you can get multiple occurrences of one of those events and that will still count?
I can't be bothered to calculate the EV. I guessed it doesn't have +EV but maybe it does. Romes seems to figure it does and I wouldn't argue maths with him. I can't see it being of much value though.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.

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