Can This 6-5 Double Deck Be Beaten?

I am a really good card counter. I played strictly double deck whenever I frequent casinos in vegas. I would always look for 3-2 tables that allow doubles on any two cards and after a split. However, I am not welcomed to play there anymore.

In my local casino, we only offer the following double deck game:

1. Blackjack pays 6-5.
2. Double on any first two cards.
3. No doubles after a split.
4. Aces can only be split once.
5. Regular splits up to 4 hands.
6. No surrender.

The house edge for this game is close to 2%. i decided to play it anyway because i had a blackjack itch. I would only raise my bet when the true count was +4 or higher, otherwise I am betting the table minimum. Is this a winning strategy? If not, please let me know at what count would give me the advantage over the house and whether or not it's worth playing.

I am fully aware about card counting and how we need to stay under the radar bla bla bla. This is strictly a math question.

Doubtful that you can gain 2% as your opportunities to play at +4 will be few. Don't forget that when you are playing at high +s you believe the cards are rich in 10s which means that the combinations of blackjacks are higher which only pay 1.2 instead of 1.5.

Maybe you would have a chance if you wonged in.

If you have an itch and you are actually good at counting that includes the art of deception it might be best to fill a tank of gas and find a casino at 3:2 and enjoy yourself.

I played many sessions of this game and I don't have a problem waiting for a true 4 count. My question is, do I even have an edge at +4? +4 occurs more frequently than I expected and my results are pretty solid at this point. But i'd like to ask more questions before I give it all back. I've had the count go up +8 before where I didn't hesitate to place a 1-20 spread and got away with.

Quote: ADVplayer

I am a really good card counter. I played strictly double deck whenever I frequent casinos in vegas. I would always look for 3-2 tables that allow doubles on any two cards and after a split. However, I am not welcomed to play there anymore.

In my local casino, we only offer the following double deck game:

1. Blackjack pays 6-5.
2. Double on any first two cards.
3. No doubles after a split.
4. Aces can only be split once.
5. Regular splits up to 4 hands.
6. No surrender.

The house edge for this game is close to 2%. i decided to play it anyway because i had a blackjack itch. I would only raise my bet when the true count was +4 or higher, otherwise I am betting the table minimum. Is this a winning strategy? If not, please let me know at what count would give me the advantage over the house and whether or not it's worth playing.

I am fully aware about card counting and how we need to stay under the radar bla bla bla. This is strictly a math question.

ADVplayer,

I haven't seen your handle before, so let me begin by saying welcome to the forum!

You failed to include several vital pieces of information:

1. Is the game S17 or H17?

2. What is the penetration?

3. Are you using HiLo, or some other system?

4. What is the ratio of your "big bet" to your "small bet"?

With this additional information, I or someone else here can easily simulate the game and determine your EV.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

1. Stand S17
2. About 33% give or take. Varies depending on dealer.
3. HiLo
4. Typically 1-10 and possibly 1-15 depending on the dealer and supervisors.

Thank you!

Quote: ADVplayer

<snip> 2. About 33% give or take. Varies depending on dealer.<snip>

ADVplayer,

Do you mean the dealer deals only one-third of the 104 cards, so roughly 35 cards, or that the dealer cuts off about 35 cards and so deals nearly 70?

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

ADVplayer,

Do you mean the dealer deals only one-third of the 104 cards, so roughly 35 cards, or that the dealer cuts off about 35 cards and so deals nearly 70?

Dog Hand

Dealer deals 70

ADVplayer,

Ok... here is the CVCX output for your game:



As you can see, you DO have an advantage at +4 & up. With 66% pen, you'll see these counts about 10% of the rounds.

If you play all with a 1:15 spread in nickels, you'll have a tiny advantage, and win $3.76/hr. With a $10K BR, your Risk of Ruin is a ruinous 38.3%.

So, while the game is TECHNICALLY beatable, it isn't one I would choose to play.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thank you!

Would I have an advantage playing at +3?

What if my bet spread is only 1-10?

Also, can you simulate another game for me?

Single deck
1. S17
2. Double any two cards and after a split
3. Split up to 4 hands except aces
4. Blackjack pays 6-5

Assume a 1-10 spread using nickles. Do I have an adv at true +3? What would be my hourly rate ?

Thank you so much!

Quote: ADVplayer

Would I have an advantage playing at +3?

What if my bet spread is only 1-10?

Based on that CVCX output, no.

That'd be even worse since you're now betting less when things are (marginally) favorable.

And I couldn't help but notice this analysis is referred to as Crapjack...

I’m just trying to figure out if I should still be betting minimum at true +3. Also, a 1-10 point spread is more doable than a 1-15 without raising red flags.

Quote: ADVplayer

I’m just trying to figure out if I should still be betting minimum at true +3. Also, a 1-10 point spread is more doable than a 1-15 without raising red flags.

Others can give a more informed answer, but I do not think casinos even looks for counters at 6:5 tables. The 1:15 spread showed an hourly rate of less than $4 an hour. If you get axed at a 6:5 table you will become a celebrity!

Quote: ADVplayer

Also, can you simulate another game for me?

Single deck
1. S17
2. Double any two cards and after a split
3. Split up to 4 hands except aces
4. Blackjack pays 6-5

Assume a 1-10 spread using nickles. Do I have an adv at true +3? What would be my hourly rate ?

Thank you so much!

ADVplayer,

Once again you failed to provide the penetration, which is crucial for these types of questions, so I simply copied the Bet Report for this SD S17 DAS Crapjack game.. Note that these results are for heads-up play on a single spot: playing multiple spots and/or with other players will DRAMATICALLY alter these results.



In this figure, the "Crds" column is the number of cards cut off from the deck, so "13" means the dealer places the cut card at 75% penetration, while "26" corresponds to 50% pen. The top line shows the HiLo TC's from <=-3 to >=+15, followed by the Win Rate (in dollars per 100 rounds), the Risk of Ruin for a $10K BR, the Desirability Index, and the Score.

As you can tell by looking at the WR, the better the pen, the higher the WR.

Each row also shows the "optimal" wagers as a function of the TC. Thus, for 20 cards cut off, if you bet $5 at +2 & below, $20 at +3, $25 at +4, and $50 at +5 & up, you'll win $11.55/100 rds.

Since in all cases CVCX recommends raising your bet at +3, that's the first TC at which you have an advantage.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Quote: ADVplayer

I am a really good card counter. I played strictly double deck whenever I frequent casinos in vegas. I would always look for 3-2 tables that allow doubles on any two cards and after a split. However, I am not welcomed to play there anymore.

In my local casino, we only offer the following double deck game:

1. Blackjack pays 6-5.
2. Double on any first two cards.
3. No doubles after a split.
4. Aces can only be split once.
5. Regular splits up to 4 hands.
6. No surrender.

The house edge for this game is close to 2%. i decided to play it anyway because i had a blackjack itch. I would only raise my bet when the true count was +4 or higher, otherwise I am betting the table minimum. Is this a winning strategy? If not, please let me know at what count would give me the advantage over the house and whether or not it's worth playing.

I am fully aware about card counting and how we need to stay under the radar bla bla bla. This is strictly a math question.

Yes, if you can hole card. Hole carding is where the money is. Counting is just the cover story for hole carding.
Head on down to Tampa where everybody else is playing.

Hi ADVplayer, and welcome to the forums.

Without trying to come off rude, and just pointing out the conversation at hand... please note the following:

Quote: ADVplayer

I am a really good card counter...

Quote: ADVplayer

The house edge for this game is close to 2%... I would only raise my bet when the true count was +4 or higher

Quote: DogHand

...Ok... here is the CVCX output for your game:
As you can see, you DO have an advantage at +4 & up. With 66% pen, you'll see these counts about 10% of the rounds.

If you play all with a 1:15 spread in nickels, you'll have a tiny advantage, and win $3.76/hr. With a $10K BR, your Risk of Ruin is a ruinous 38.3%.

So, while the game is TECHNICALLY beatable, it isn't one I would choose to play.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Quote: ADVplayer

...Would I have an advantage playing at +3?

What if my bet spread is only 1-10?

So, you really should have the information already available to have the answer to this question... and if you were familiar with True Count advantages/percentages (which ANY winning card counter should know) then you'd know that on a 2% game TC +3 is not profitable. TC +3 might best yield a max of about 1.75% shift in the overall house edge, so the HE would still be negative at TC +3.

Next, I hope you didn't gloss over the fact that spreading 1-15 you have an abysmal win rate... so a 1-10 spread would, realistically speaking, be laughable. One or two betting/mistakes an hour would put you as a negative player...

***Here's the biggest kicker: When doghand says "1-15" I hope you saw the spread... it was actually 1 unit, 12 units at TC +4, and 15 units any higher. There really is no "ramping" like normal in this game. The variance from this game would be INSANE. You would have to have a MASSIVE bankroll to avoid a horrid RoR. So if you're playing nickels, even having $10k you'd run about 40% chance of losing it all... if you try to play quarters (5x the bet on everything) to make about $18/hour, you'd still have 40% risk of ruin with a $50,000 bankroll.

Real counters who try to make real money will have around 1% RoR... think of the bankroll you'd need for this game. I highly, highly doubt, you have $100k+ set aside for card counting, as anyone with that money would a) own CVData to sim this stuff, and b) be looking to make at minimum $50-$75 per hour playing.

Again, not trying to be rude, but one of the BIGGEST problems I've seen when training the DOZENS of players that I have (all for free) has been those that are overconfident in their abilities and risk large sums of money while playing a LOSING GAME. It is a very, very dangerous mistake to make for ones bankroll...