If it is 118:1 to flop a flush for one player, say myself in the hand, then I think the odds for two people to do it must be much higher. If I flopped one then it is that much harder for the second person to do it since I have 2 of his outs.

Someone please reply with the answer.

Thanks

Tom Golly

tgolly@centurylink.net

Quote:tgollyMy question is while playing 9 handed hold-em what are the odds that two people flop a flush?

If it is 118:1 to flop a flush for one player, say myself in the hand, then I think the odds for two people to do it must be much higher. If I flopped one then it is that much harder for the second person to do it since I have 2 of his outs.

Someone please reply with the answer.

Thanks

Tom Golly

tgolly@centurylink.net

Are you asking given that you have a flush what are the odds someone else does? Or do you want to know the odds to two people having a flush on a given flop?

These are very difference questions.

Quote:tgollyMy question is while playing 9 handed hold-em what are the odds that two people flop a flush?

If it is 118:1 to flop a flush for one player, say myself in the hand, then I think the odds for two people to do it must be much higher. If I flopped one then it is that much harder for the second person to do it since I have 2 of his outs.

Someone please reply with the answer.

Thanks

Tom Golly

tgolly@centurylink.net

From the Wizard's, "Poker Probabilities" page on the WoO site, there are 5,108 ways to make a flush with five cards, out of 1,302,540 possible hands, or 1 in 255. The odds of another player having two cards of the same suit in the hole is 1276/1302539 or, 1 in 1021. I'm no expert, but I suspect that since the two hands are dependent on each other, the actual numbers may be somewhat different.

Quote:AyecarumbaFrom the Wizard's, "Poker Probabilities" page on the WoO site, there are 5,108 ways to make a flush with five cards, out of 1,302,540 possible hands, or 1 in 255. The odds of another player having two cards of the same suit in the hole is 1276/1302539 or, 1 in 1021. I'm no expert, but I suspect that since the two hands are dependent on each other, the actual numbers may be somewhat different.

It's real simple. Two conditions have to come true: one, Player A flops a flush, and two, Player B also has two cards of the same suit. Now, there are 8 cards left out of 47, so Player B has an (8/47)*(7/46) chance of getting two of those cards. Multiply the resultant fraction by 1/255, and you're done.

Thanks again.

Looks like a calculation error. I have not tried to verify that the fractions you were given are correct, but even if they are, you are quite a few places off with the decimal point in your answer. Did you use a slide rule? (Sorry, just a geezer joke there.)Quote:tgollyOk so I did the math and the answer I get is 1.015. Does that mean the chances of the event occurring are 1%?

Thanks :-))

Quote:tgollyI want to know that odds of two people having a flush on a given flop.

Thanks :-))

If I was to hazzard a guess, I would say there is about a 27.73% chance of getting one or more flush after the flop on a nine player game, if you include straight-flushes as well.

The question of what percentage of this would be exactly two, I did not look at this, as it is easier to determine what the chances are of no players making a flush in a nine player game and taking the remaining percentage as the answer. not to say that it would be too hard to figure out.

The results for 2 or MORE people flopping a flush on the same hand is ... p = 0.001689 (about 1-in-592).

I did some combinatorial computations that show this is reasonable, so I trust this result. This is a very tough combinatorial problem. I see how to do it to get the exact answer, but the sheep and pigs are waiting for breakfast ...

Note ... this does NOT answer the question "suppose I flop a flush, what is the probability that one of the other 8 players also flopped a flush?" That is a different question.

--Dorothy