Sm0key
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March 1st, 2018 at 3:25:26 AM permalink
Example 1: 200$ cashprize
Example 2: 250$ bonus money - 1X requirement - 98% RTP slot. Ones own money being played goes toward the wagering requirememt and the bonus becomes cash first after it has been met.

Is it correct to multiply 0.98 × 250 for a total of 245$ and therefor conclude that example 2 is better? How to actually quantify the value of example 2 in practise to conclude a likely outcome and whether it should be considered better or worse?
RS
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March 1st, 2018 at 3:47:22 AM permalink
You're going to want to calculate the CE (Certainty Equivalent [Equivalency]) of playing the slot machine. If that number is above $200, then play the slot. If it's less than $200, then take the cash.

It depends on the size of your bankroll and risk factor (ie: what % of kelly you play at) and obviously the variance of the slot machine and denomination. So it depends on what person compared to another. Bill Gates with a 500 Billion USD bankroll is going to play the slot for a $245 EV, while someone with $0 is going to take the $200 cash.

https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/math-behind-advantage-play/

Quote: source

Certainty Equivalence (CE)
This is also known as risk-adjusted return. This is the product of taking the expected win rate and adjusting it based on the level of risk in proportion to the current bankroll and level of risk tolerance. This will show you if the game is “worth playing” compared to your bank size. So you may have a $100 in EV but you CE may only indicate that the game is only worth $50 since your bankroll is so small. You can even go so far as CE going into negative territory which indicates you are severely over betting your bankroll.

The basic equation of figuring CE. EV-( (bet size*Standard Deviation)^2)/(2*Kelly factory*BR)

*Any easy way to think about the concept behind CE: “I could pay you $100 cash, or you could take a 50/50 chance at $200. Is it worth it? What about a 50/50 chance at $101? 1/10 chance at $20,000? At some points, you will take the risk. At other times, the risk involved isn’t justified.

Sm0key
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March 1st, 2018 at 3:54:07 AM permalink
I don't know if it's over? At wich point of a bankroll does the value exceed 200$ and at wich point is it lower? If i risk as much cash as the bonus itself where does that put me in refards to both profit as such and compared to 200$?

Generally speaking, would you say that example 2 favors the casino more and decreases the value on average?

*On a Bloodsuckers slot machine.
standbymyman
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RS
March 1st, 2018 at 8:14:42 AM permalink
which which which which which
RS
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March 1st, 2018 at 2:09:49 PM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

I don't know if it's over? At wich point of a bankroll does the value exceed 200$ and at wich point is it lower? If i risk as much cash as the bonus itself where does that put me in refards to both profit as such and compared to 200$?


Like I said, also depends on your level of risk or kelly factor.

Quote: Sn4keyz

Generally speaking, would you say that example 2 favors the casino more and decreases the value on average?

*On a Bloodsuckers slot machine.


The casino would rather you take the $200 cash since they (almost certainly I'd imagine) have a significant bankroll. So overall, yes, you'd be better off playing the $250 through a 2% loser.

But for this problem, I don't know, since...well, I don't know anything about it (variance, your kelly factor, BR, etc.). Not that I'm going to do the math either way.
Wizard
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March 1st, 2018 at 2:33:25 PM permalink
I'd choose the slot machine for the higher EV. I'm curious to know how you know it's RTP is 98%?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Sm0key
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March 1st, 2018 at 3:15:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd choose the slot machine for the higher EV. I'm curious to know how you know it's RTP is 98%?



It's stated on the instructions page.
TomG
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March 2nd, 2018 at 7:43:58 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Bill Gates with a 500 Billion USD bankroll is going to play the slot for a $245 EV, while someone with $0 is going to take the $200 cash.



Bill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him
boymimbo
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March 2nd, 2018 at 11:41:29 PM permalink
Quote: Sm0key

Example 1: 200$ cashprize
Example 2: 250$ bonus money - 1X requirement - 98% RTP slot. Ones own money being played goes toward the wagering requirememt and the bonus becomes cash first after it has been met.

Is it correct to multiply 0.98 × 250 for a total of 245$ and therefor conclude that example 2 is better? How to actually quantify the value of example 2 in practise to conclude a likely outcome and whether it should be considered better or worse?



Variance matters. To be extreme if a slot has a single $9800 prize that goes off on average every 10,000 coin in you would probably pick the cash prize.

For example Ultimate and Multistrike have large variances where the $250 coin in could easily be reduced to below $200 despite a decent pay table. I imagine slots are very much the same.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Nathan
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March 3rd, 2018 at 4:13:45 AM permalink
The $200 in cash is the better choice IMHO. You can take that $200 and do whatever you want with it, it is cold hard cash. Whereas with the $250 free play you HAVE to play it. I am posting under the scenario that when you take the choice you are playing with a lot of fatigue and are itching to go home already. So that bonus $200 in cash is a Godsend for you and you run for the hills with it. Now let's say you are feeling fatigued and wanted to go home but you chose the $250 in free play and you are so fatigued you play stupid bets in tight machines (Playing while fatigued is not a good idea) and end up with only $50 in cash. You kick yourself for not leaving with the $200. TBH, it all changes if you are fresh, wide awake, and alert then the $250 in the free play is better because you tend to make better bets when your mind is clear and alert rather than fatigued.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
prozema
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:40:33 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Bill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him



Point taken but I question the example. Mashing buttons don't decrease passive income sources like interest.
jopke
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March 3rd, 2018 at 9:16:03 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Bill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him



Does he stop earning interest when he plays slot machines? I think he spends most of his actual time giving money away, so being tied up in front of a slot would probably save him millions!
Nathan
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March 3rd, 2018 at 10:12:18 AM permalink
Bill Gates, now that is a responsible spender! I heard somewhere that Bill Gates buys food off the McDonald's value menu rather than expensive places like Gordon Ramsey Restaurants. :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
Sm0key
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:39:26 PM permalink
Quote: Nathan

The $200 in cash is the better choice IMHO. You can take that $200 and do whatever you want with it, it is cold hard cash. Whereas with the $250 free play you HAVE to play it. I am posting under the scenario that when you take the choice you are playing with a lot of fatigue and are itching to go home already. So that bonus $200 in cash is a Godsend for you and you run for the hills with it. Now let's say you are feeling fatigued and wanted to go home but you chose the $250 in free play and you are so fatigued you play stupid bets in tight machines (Playing while fatigued is not a good idea) and end up with only $50 in cash. You kick yourself for not leaving with the $200. TBH, it all changes if you are fresh, wide awake, and alert then the $250 in the free play is better because you tend to make better bets when your mind is clear and alert rather than fatigued.



No i'm not feeling fatigued nor do i mind spending time playing, quite to the contrary actually: i think it's entertaining. And it's online not in casino.
RogerKint
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:41:33 PM permalink
Quote: Nathan

The $200 in cash is the better choice IMHO. You can take that $200 and do whatever you want with it, it is cold hard cash. Whereas with the $250 free play you HAVE to play it. I am posting under the scenario that when you take the choice you are playing with a lot of fatigue and are itching to go home already. So that bonus $200 in cash is a Godsend for you and you run for the hills with it. Now let's say you are feeling fatigued and wanted to go home but you chose the $250 in free play and you are so fatigued you play stupid bets in tight machines (Playing while fatigued is not a good idea) and end up with only $50 in cash. You kick yourself for not leaving with the $200. TBH, it all changes if you are fresh, wide awake, and alert then the $250 in the free play is better because you tend to make better bets when your mind is clear and alert rather than fatigued.



Can I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?
100% risk of ruin
Sm0key
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:44:26 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Variance matters. To be extreme if a slot has a single $9800 prize that goes off on average every 10,000 coin in you would probably pick the cash prize.

For example Ultimate and Multistrike have large variances where the $250 coin in could easily be reduced to below $200 despite a decent pay table. I imagine slots are very much the same.



Variance matters yes. As with many slots the great equalizer comes from the bonus round so i wouldn't be maximizing my odds even if i bet it all on one spin. There's a sweetspot where the bet size isn't big enough to see the bonus too infrequently and not small enough to have it's value watered down by a prolonged grind, and i don't know exactly where that is or how to quantify it.
AxelWolf
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:48:21 PM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Can I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?

I will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 3rd, 2018 at 6:48:22 PM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Can I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?

I will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
prozema
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March 3rd, 2018 at 8:33:58 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.



If there is a 9/6 job game in that house, I'm a buyer at that price.
AxelWolf
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March 3rd, 2018 at 10:40:41 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

If there is a 9/6 job game in that house, I'm a buyer at that price.

You are going to truck your ass to the casino for less than $3 in value?

If it were a significant amount I would certainly buy free play for a discount.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
prozema
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March 4th, 2018 at 5:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You are going to truck your ass to the casino for less than $3 in value?

If it were a significant amount I would certainly buy free play for a discount.



No. I was thinking you'd sell in hundred lots. :-)
TomG
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March 4th, 2018 at 11:09:06 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Quote: TomG

Bill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him

Point taken but I question the example. Mashing buttons don't decrease passive income sources like interest.



The example isn't meant to show a change in income, only how much that would be worth to him compared to the time lost

How much extra work would you be willing to do for a one time payment of 0.01% of your hourly income?
cyberbabble
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March 4th, 2018 at 3:31:36 PM permalink
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." - Color of Money

Looking for UX multipliers is probably not worth the time. Some people just enjoy looking for buried treasure.

I like walking through a casino knowing about advantage gambling exploits though about all I do is play live poker.
prozema
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March 4th, 2018 at 3:42:59 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

The example isn't meant to show a change in income, only how much that would be worth to him compared to the time lost

How much extra work would you be willing to do for a one time payment of 0.01% of your hourly income?



I suppose that depends on how much you need a little more.
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