variance in blackjack
January 20th, 2018 at 12:32:14 PM
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What is the probability to lose 416 of 780 hands in electronic blackjack game?
Or 0,533333333%.
According to my calculation is a rare event in the order of 4 in 1000 times.
Is this true?.
Thanks
Or 0,533333333%.
According to my calculation is a rare event in the order of 4 in 1000 times.
Is this true?.
Thanks
January 20th, 2018 at 12:41:30 PM
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Wouldn't you expect to lose about 51% of the decisions to begin with? Losing an extra 2% over a short run doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
January 20th, 2018 at 12:57:07 PM
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My expected value is just 382,902 in 780.
In this case i have lost 33 more hands than normal.
Is this common?
A mean difference of 52,026 hands against a 126 difference between won and lost hands.
is this normal?
In this case i have lost 33 more hands than normal.
Is this common?
A mean difference of 52,026 hands against a 126 difference between won and lost hands.
is this normal?
January 20th, 2018 at 1:01:35 PM
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I thought that if you follow perfect basic strategy you'll lose 48% of the time and push another 8% of the time (and win 44% of the time). Losing 53% of your hands seems more than normal but not too far-fetched as far as variance goes. Those who are much better acquainted with the math know better than I.
ars longa vita brevis
January 20th, 2018 at 1:05:52 PM
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I'm assuming he is counting decisions, not hands. Eliminate pushes and its closer to 48.5-51.5, as I recall
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
January 20th, 2018 at 1:07:53 PM
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So nothing strange!
I have lost -0.126482903% of the total volume played.
It is very far from the expected value of just 0.0038%.
I have lost -0.126482903% of the total volume played.
It is very far from the expected value of just 0.0038%.
January 20th, 2018 at 1:39:36 PM
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Winning that amount is even more unlikely, but no one ever gets suspicious when unusual results favor the player.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
