What is the probably that we are cousins

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June 16th, 2017 at 7:19:30 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Just watched a YouTube video on this, your thoughts are correct. There are more ancestors than people ever alive. 100%. We'd need to find humans on another planet if we want new blood, that evolved independently from different shoots.

Maybe the question should have been what is the probably that I thought of something before someone else posted a YouTube video about it... Apparently it's pretty close to 0%

:-/

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 7:27:03 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
. 100%.

Do you mean there is a 100% chance everyone is related? If so, that doesn't feel right. I could see calculus dictating the limit is 100 percent but a limit and a probably are distinct concepts.

Doc

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June 16th, 2017 at 7:56:29 PM permalink

If you were to subscribe to the concept that it all started with the equivalent of Adam and Eve (even if you don't subscribe to the religious aspects), then it would indeed seem 100% likely that we are all related.

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 8:22:21 PM permalink

Quote: Doc
If you were to subscribe to the concept that it all started with the equivalent of Adam and Eve (even if you don't subscribe to the religious aspects), then it would indeed seem 100% likely that we are all related.

I picked 1,500 years in an attempt to avoid creation stories / theories / religion debate. Maybe thats impossible?

billryan

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June 16th, 2017 at 8:44:09 PM permalink

If you go back 1500 years, you had people living in what is now Chile, people living on scattered Pacific Ocean Islands and folks living in Europe near or north of the Artic Circle. I'm pretty sure they would be more than distant cousins of each other.

Another flaw in your theory is generations back then were more like 15 years apart, not 30. Women had children as soon as they were able to. By thirty, they were grandmothers.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 8:44:41 PM permalink

Maybe this is a spatial problem?

For example, If I live in international falls MN, there is a lower probability that I'm related to someone in Nogales Mexico relative to Winnipeg Canada.

If that's the case, highway intersection, tourism, and airport hubs, and language barriers matter.

Based on that, it might be possible that it's more likely I'm related to everyone reading this message than I am to a random person is some isolated tribe of indeginous people in the Amazon / African desert / abegerinese (sp?) / (insert another "A" word here) people?

Its counter intuitive that is more likely I'm related to a random group than another single individual...

The more I think about this, the more complex it becomes.

billryan

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June 16th, 2017 at 8:47:31 PM permalink

KISS!!!

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

onenickelmiracle

onenickelmiracle

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June 16th, 2017 at 8:50:40 PM permalink

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.

I am a robot.

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 9:01:23 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.

Great. Now, thanks to PBS I have to think about how genghis khan works into this mess.

I don't want to sound cocky... But I suppose the most you could say is that they framed the question better than I did. I don't see an answer to the probably analysis. The guy did mention spatial relationships for almost a half second... :-)

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 9:12:26 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.

Hold on a sec... He's getting 2^40 (40 generations ago) at 450 B.C. (2500 years ago). I'm getting 2^50 (50 generations ago) at 500 A.D.

I've had a few burbons tonight... What math did I do wrong?

If he's assuming 62 years between generations, I have concerns with that assumption.

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 9:19:38 PM permalink

Quote: billryan

Another flaw in your theory is generations back then were more like 15 years apart, not 30. Women had children as soon as they were able to. By thirty, they were grandmothers.

I picked 30 years to be conservative. I have kids, so I would like to think it's less probable my wife and I are related. :-)

Changing the assumption to 15 years would increase probably if I'm thinking about this right.

I'm trying to get a grip on how I would determine how much of a difference a change in that assumption would make.

Does that make sense?

prozema

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June 16th, 2017 at 9:22:02 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
KISS!!!

Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.

FinsRule

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June 17th, 2017 at 2:51:31 AM permalink

I don't think this is a math problem. It's an evolution problem. My guess is that people evolved in different areas of Earth. If that's the case, then everyone in the world is probably not related.

Wizard
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June 17th, 2017 at 9:59:01 AM permalink

I think this was asked about in a Straight Dope column once. I think the way the question was phrased is how many generations back would you maximize the number of distinct ancestors.

In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

AxelWolf

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June 17th, 2017 at 11:36:06 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.

Or you can just travel to West Virginia.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

MaxPen

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June 18th, 2017 at 12:21:34 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Or you can just travel to West Virginia.

I heard there is 1 in 1.1 chance that people in WV are related. Sounds about right. How many last names are there in WV?

billryan

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June 18th, 2017 at 1:18:46 AM permalink

Quote: prozema
Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.

Think about this. In the British Isles, it was very rare for people to leave their villages, except to make the big journey to America. Things barely changed, lifestyle wise, for hundreds of years. A man born in a village of a few hundred would marry, have children and die. His children would marry someone from that village, have children and die. How long before everyone in the village is related to everyone else. These people had no transportation. How far can a man go, after working in a field or a mine to court a woman? Even if he walked two hours in each direction, that's about a seven mile radius. Poor people didn't have horses or carriages. They walked, until bicycles came along. With a bike, a man could venture maybe as far as 10 or 15 miles to find a wife.
My family comes from a rural area in Ireland. Same rules applied. Start going through geneology and you'll find my Fathers Uncle Mike is my Mothers cousin and that Aunt Mary on my moms side married Uncle Andrew on my Dads side and sometimes Aunt Ann on my moms side seems to have married Uncle Bill, who also is on my moms side of the family.
This is what happens when people produce large families in relatively small areas.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

onenickelmiracle

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June 18th, 2017 at 2:03:32 AM permalink

I saw in West Virginia a guy drive his riding mower to the gas station to get gas, filled up at the pump.

I am a robot.

Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 5:56:36 AM permalink

Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.

I hope Mission doesn't find this thread.

Rank	State	Critical Reading	Mathematics	Writing	Total SAT score
1	Illinois	599	616	587	1802
2	North Dakota	597	608	586	1791
3	Michigan	594	609	585	1788
4	Minnesota	595	607	576	1778
5	Missouri	596	599	582	1777
6	Wisconsin	591	605	575	1771
7	Iowa	589	600	566	1755
8	Nebraska	589	590	576	1755
9	South Dakota	592	597	564	1753
10	Kentucky	588	587	574	1749
11	Kansas	588	592	568	1748
12	Wyoming	589	586	562	1737
13	Colorado	582	587	567	1736
14	Tennessee	581	574	568	1723
15	Mississippi	580	563	570	1713
16	Utah	579	575	554	1708
17	Oklahoma	576	569	548	1693
18	Arkansas	568	569	551	1688
19	Louisiana	563	559	553	1675
20	Ohio	557	563	537	1657
21	Montana	561	556	538	1655
22	New Mexico	551	544	528	1623
23	Alabama	545	538	533	1616
24	New Hampshire	525	530	511	1566
25	Vermont	523	524	507	1554
26	Arizona	523	527	502	1552
27	Massachusetts	516	529	507	1552
28	Oregon	523	521	502	1546
29	Virginia	518	516	499	1533
30	New Jersey	500	521	499	1520
31	Connecticut	504	506	504	1514
32	West Virginia	509	497	495	1501
33	Washington	502	510	484	1496
34	Alaska	509	503	482	1494
35	California	495	506	491	1492
36	Pennsylvania	499	504	482	1485
37	North Carolina	498	504	476	1478
38	Indiana	496	499	478	1473
39	Hawaii	487	508	477	1472
40	Rhode Island	494	494	484	1472
41	New York	489	502	478	1469
42	Maryland	491	493	478	1462
43	Nevada	494	494	470	1458
44	Georgia	490	485	475	1450
45	South Carolina	488	487	467	1442
46	Florida	486	480	468	1434
47	Texas	470	486	454	1410
48	Maine	468	473	451	1392
49	Idaho	467	463	442	1372
50	Delaware	462	461	445	1368
51	Puerto Rico	463	450	450	1363
52	District of Columbia	441	440	432	1313
53	Virgin Islands	414	388	412	1214

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

prozema

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June 18th, 2017 at 6:19:46 AM permalink

Missouri is at #5?!? BOOM... No, DOUBLE BOOM!

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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June 18th, 2017 at 10:50:18 AM permalink

Several years ago,I heard a lecturer describe an international project concentrating on genetics in Iceland. They had picked Iceland because it is geographically isolated and have birth records usually extending back over 1,200 years.

- they said that they were able to determine that that the fraction of people who had been fathered by someone other than the father named on the birth certificate/record was about 1%!
- based on what I heard, they were able to identify the extent and genetic effect of Viking raiding parties on England, in which they captured good-looking women and brought them back to Iceland
- the lecturer added that he had recently been to England recently and had concluded that the Vikings must have taken all the good-looking ones years ago!!!

But, my impression is that there is a lot of inbreeding amongst populations that are geographically distinct - we mate with people who are close to home. So, the kind of statistics in the OP probably apply to geographically clustered populations for short periods of time (like Irishmen in Boston or the Japanese in Japan, etc.) but not to the entire population of the world.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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June 18th, 2017 at 10:57:23 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.

One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs. I live in the South and in my experience the only students who take the SATs are those who are applying to schools outside the South (particularly the Northeast and upper Midwest) -and I suspect that these are an atypical sample group who are brighter and more ambitious about education. In other words, I think that the average scores of Southern states (like my own) are not representative because they are skewed to be too high.

It would be interesting to check the state rankings on the ACTs and see if it were different.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 11:38:56 AM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs.

Very good point. It also only looks at those applying for college in the first place.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

AxelWolf

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June 18th, 2017 at 12:10:37 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Why all the ragging on West Virginia? I had a look at average SAT scores by state and they came in 32nd out of 54 states and districts in combined SAT scores. Well ahead of my own Nevada at 43rd.

I hope Mission doesn't find this thread.

What's that have to do with inbreeding? Should we give them the green light if we could prove it leads to higher SAT scores?

If you get married in West Virginia then move to Las Vegas and get a divorce are you still considered brother and sister?

I will be sure to send Mission a link.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

billryan

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June 18th, 2017 at 12:24:56 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Very good point. It also only looks at those applying for college in the first place.

Is that true? I don't recall the SAT being voluntary. I remember you could take it over again if you weren't happy with the score, but I remember taking it with some kids that weren't college bound.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

Wizard
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June 18th, 2017 at 2:40:09 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
Is that true? I don't recall the SAT being voluntary. I remember you could take it over again if you weren't happy with the score, but I remember taking it with some kids that weren't college bound.

Why would anyone bother taking it who wasn't college bound? When I was in high school the SAT definitely was voluntary, as I assume it is now. Its my understanding it doesn't carry the same weight as it did when I graduated high school in 83 where pretty much every college required it and used it as about 50% of the criteria for admission. Today there are a lot more paths leading to college admission but I imagine most college bound applicants at least take it, in the anticipating of using it if they did well and using other paths if they didn't.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Doc

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June 18th, 2017 at 4:21:53 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
I think that the average scores of Southern states (like my own) are not representative because they are skewed to be too high.

If that were true for all of the southern states, I think it would be quite damning, what with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Texas all ranked 37th or worse. I think the curious thing about southern state rankings in this list is the fact that Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana are all ranked in the top 20. Perhaps it is that cluster to which gordonm888 was referring.

socks

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June 18th, 2017 at 6:03:23 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
One problem with this list is that most college applicants in the southern states take the ACTs -not the SATs.

This may have changed, but I don't think that was the case in the 90s. I don't know of anyone at my old high school(in SC) who took the ACT. Duke's Talent Identification Program ran exclusively off the SAT as well.

Wizard
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Thanked by

June 18th, 2017 at 7:08:47 PM permalink

Quote: socks
This may have changed, but I don't think that was the case in the 90s. I don't know of anyone at my old high school(in SC) who took the ACT. Duke's Talent Identification Program ran exclusively off the SAT as well.

All I can say is that for 1983 graduates, like me, not many kids took the ACT. I had the impression it was something certain schools liked to see but the California colleges, which were all I cared about, didn't really care about that test. Maybe a good score would have helped in a borderline case. My older daughter graduated from high school two years ago and judging from what the guidance counselor said, it was almost on part with the SAT in terms of significance and most students took both the SAT and ACT.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

billryan