jefflink
jefflink
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:04:40 AM permalink
I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me?
mkl654321
mkl654321
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:08:51 AM permalink
Quote: jefflink

I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me?



Sounds like the system is treating all games equal, with comps at about 22% of theo. However, this is wrong. Players should be comped at 200 percent of theoretical loss. I strongly suggest that you have the system reprogrammed to reflect this.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Triplell
Triplell
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:25:01 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Sounds like the system is treating all games equal, with comps at about 22% of theo. However, this is wrong. Players should be comped at 200 percent of theoretical loss. I strongly suggest that you have the system reprogrammed to reflect this.



Is this serious? How would a casino make money?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:27:05 AM permalink
Quote: jefflink

I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me?



The payback % of ~20-25% of theoretical loss is appropriate (though, if you do decide to increase it, that'd be great...).

Looking at the house edges for those games and the average number of decisions per hour, I get

BJ: $25 bet * 70 hands per hour * .6% HA = $10.50 theoretical loss
TCP: $25 bet * 30 hands per hour * 3.5% HA = $26.25 theoretical loss
Craps: $25 bet * 80 rolls per hour * 30% roll resolution rate* 1.41% HA= $8.46 theoretical loss *EDITED*
Roulette: $25 bet * 60 spins per hour* 5.26% HA= $78.90 theoretical loss

Depending on the exact rules of your games and the pace of play in your casino, you can adjust the decisions/hour and house advantage to get a more accurate theoretical loss. Also, please note that there is pretty much a 0% chance of $100 lasting an hour with a $25 average bet in any of these games.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:28:02 AM permalink
Quote: Triplell

Is this serious? How would a casino make money?



It's tongue-in-cheek. But, to answer your question...video keno:-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Triplell
Triplell
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August 17th, 2010 at 11:02:42 AM permalink
Isn't the house edge in craps based on bets resolved? And Aren't most bets resolved on an average of 3-4 rolls. So the TL should be much less for craps I would say.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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August 17th, 2010 at 11:06:58 AM permalink
Quote: Triplell

Isn't the house edge in craps based on bets resolved? And Aren't most bets resolved on an average of 3-4 rolls. So the TL should be much less for craps I would say.



D'oh, you're right! I don't play craps, and I thought about just leaving that one off the list. Instead I went for it and blew it. I've edited my post to reflect your comment.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
jefflink
jefflink
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August 17th, 2010 at 11:16:36 AM permalink
Thank you so very much. You are a life saver!
scotty81
scotty81
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August 17th, 2010 at 11:31:48 AM permalink
Comps for craps & BJ are more difficult because the type of bet and skill level of the player make a big difference. But, your levels are close to the industry average which is 20% of the average bet per hour for these games. This should put your comp value at $5, but $4 is close enough.

You might want to adjust your roulette comp. Your system is assuming a pretty slow game: 30 spins per hour. 35 spins per hour is the current industry norm for a "blended" roulette theoretical. Some games move very fast. Some are excruciatingly slow. I suspect that some of the more sophisticated comp systems allow the pit to enter the speed of the game, which affects the theoretical. The Rapid Roulette systems are generally valued at almost double of a regular game because the RR game moves so fast - typically north of 50 spins per hour.

Another factor you need to be aware of is that, in general, 40% of the "theo" is reserved for marketing in the overall scheme of things. The comps you are able to dole out at your discretion are only a portion of this total. The other portion goes into the other offers the casino uses to entice the player to come back (free rooms, promotional chips, tournaments, etc.) Your "discresionary" percentage appears to be 25%, which is about average.

Since 00 Roulette offers you a huge HA, and the skill level of the player is not a factor, you might want to look into increasing the comp value so that you attract more roulette players. In general, the industry norm is to weight roulette at four times the value of BJ when it comes to comps. Upping the average number of assumed spins per hour to 35 or 40 instead of 30 would put you more in line with the industry average.

So, I would say that with the execption of possibly underrating your roulette play, your comps are comparable with industry averages.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. - Niels Bohr
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