NFL point spread betting and the odds
October 13th, 2014 at 6:45:50 PM
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Hey guys this is my first post.
So here's my question..
I'm looking at the wizard of odds page on NFL betting seen here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
The wizard shows the actual probability of winning a game based on the point spread, but I want to know how the point spread affects the probability to COVER the spread. My first and only guess is that it's a 50% chance but I'm not sure so I'm turning to you guys.
Thanks in advance!
So here's my question..
I'm looking at the wizard of odds page on NFL betting seen here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
The wizard shows the actual probability of winning a game based on the point spread, but I want to know how the point spread affects the probability to COVER the spread. My first and only guess is that it's a 50% chance but I'm not sure so I'm turning to you guys.
Thanks in advance!
October 13th, 2014 at 9:10:31 PM
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I don't know the answer, but I've wondered the same thing. I'm sure that merely betting certain spreads is not enough to make a profit, but I wonder if being just on the right side of key numbers might help.
The Wiz recently mentioned that dogs cover around 51% of the time. Can't recall the exact figure. So I wonder if that goes up just a bit more at +3.5, +7.5 or +10.5.
The Wiz recently mentioned that dogs cover around 51% of the time. Can't recall the exact figure. So I wonder if that goes up just a bit more at +3.5, +7.5 or +10.5.
October 14th, 2014 at 4:11:30 AM
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Well, in that same article he says he doesn't account for key numbers. But considering the spread is an adjustment for who might win the game I can't imagine it's more than a coin flip.
October 14th, 2014 at 6:56:49 AM
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Quote: ChodempoleHey guys this is my first post.
So here's my question..
I'm looking at the wizard of odds page on NFL betting seen here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
The wizard shows the actual probability of winning a game based on the point spread, but I want to know how the point spread affects the probability to COVER the spread. My first and only guess is that it's a 50% chance but I'm not sure so I'm turning to you guys.
Thanks in advance!
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/
