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pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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June 10th, 2014 at 4:38:38 AM permalink
Post #109 on this forum stated 28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites. Note "satoshidice" is a Japanese gambling site.

Post #139 replied with over a billion bets at Just-Dice I would be surprised if there wasn't at least a 28 streak at one point.

Post #141 was the bet with up to $30,000 in action. The owner of the website would go through the 1.2 billion bets and filter out only those with 49.5% odds of winning and look for streaks. His guess prior to filtering was half the bets were of that type.

Would you take some of that action? The people who bet didn't know what percentage of the 1/2 billion bets were at 49.5%. The guess that half were of that type turned out to be wrong. Only a third were.
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:28:07 AM permalink
49.5% chance of winning is a bad bet. Can't even play the DI card with online dice.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 10th, 2014 at 6:07:44 AM permalink
This is this an online casino I would never 100% trust an online casino.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 10th, 2014 at 7:38:00 AM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

49.5% chance of winning is a bad bet.

Really?
How do you figure?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
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June 10th, 2014 at 4:47:14 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

49.5% chance of winning is a bad bet. Can't even play the DI card with online dice.

Really?
How do you figure?

Sorry, for some reason I felt compelled to state the obvious...
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:00:00 PM permalink
Not if it pays 2-1 :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:14:42 PM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

Sorry, for some reason I felt compelled to state the obvious...

Obvious? Not to me it's not.

To me, a 0.5% house edge is not bad at all. So what am I missing?



Quote: thecesspit

Not if it pays 2-1 :)

I'm assuming 1:1
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:24:28 PM permalink
Two things at play here, each of them referred to as "real world".

One use of "real world" is a pseudonym for a player having the knowledge that on line casinos are akin to butchers with a thumb on the scale, although they can't see the thumb or know how much it weighs.

The other use of "real world" is the eternal gambler's puzzlement: IF past events have no effect on that next spin then what should I bet on if the past ten results were "Black". The Ball and Wheel still don't know the past and have no desire or ability to "even things out" in some sort of just world, but there are far MORE ten streaks followed by a Change than ten streak followed by an Eleventh result.
So even though the Ball and Wheel can't "balance things out" we know that in the long run Ten streaks are more frequent than eleven streaks so after ten reds bet Black.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Obvious? Not to me it's not.

To me, a 0.5% house edge is not bad at all. So what am I missing?



I'm assuming 1:1



The house edge in this case would be 1%
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
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June 10th, 2014 at 5:50:39 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Obvious? Not to me it's not.
To me, a 0.5% house edge is not bad at all. So what am I missing?
I'm assuming 1:1

Certainly that's better odds than the great majority of what's offered in most casinos. but a 50.5% chance of losing a 1:1 bet is not good. I'll grant you it's acceptable if you just want to have some fun, but if you wager at those odds long enough your bankroll will evaporate. My main point was that no matter what outrageous streak is involved, winning or losing, the next play will be independent of that streak. "The dice have no memory" is posted to this forum so often I thought I wouldn't have to say it again.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia

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