Golf Tournament - Probability
January 31st, 2014 at 8:31:36 AM
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You won a contest. You will win $10000 if you can predict the exact place Justin Rose finishes in the 2014 Masters.
Here are the current PGA Tour Rankings:
1 - Tiger Woods
2 - Adam Scott
3 - Henrik Stenson
4 - Phil Mickelson
5 - Justin Rose
6 - Rory Mcilroy
7 - Zach Johnson
8 - Matt Kuchar
9 - Sergio Garcia
10 - Jason Day
How do you go about deciding what his most likely finish is? For the sake of simplicity, let's say there are 100 participants in the Masters.
I guess the question boils down to, is he more likely to finish 1st or 5th?
Here are the current PGA Tour Rankings:
1 - Tiger Woods
2 - Adam Scott
3 - Henrik Stenson
4 - Phil Mickelson
5 - Justin Rose
6 - Rory Mcilroy
7 - Zach Johnson
8 - Matt Kuchar
9 - Sergio Garcia
10 - Jason Day
How do you go about deciding what his most likely finish is? For the sake of simplicity, let's say there are 100 participants in the Masters.
I guess the question boils down to, is he more likely to finish 1st or 5th?
January 31st, 2014 at 9:13:01 AM
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I think I would look at past master's results controling for his ranking going into the tournament that year. I would also look to see if I could find somewhere you can lay off odds on him winning (or finishing in a given place) to hedge off.
January 31st, 2014 at 9:32:47 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleYou won a contest. You will win $10000 if you can predict the exact place Justin Rose finishes in the 2014 Masters.
Here are the current PGA Tour Rankings:
1 - Tiger Woods
2 - Adam Scott
3 - Henrik Stenson
4 - Phil Mickelson
5 - Justin Rose
6 - Rory Mcilroy
7 - Zach Johnson
8 - Matt Kuchar
9 - Sergio Garcia
10 - Jason Day
How do you go about deciding what his most likely finish is? For the sake of simplicity, let's say there are 100 participants in the Masters.
I guess the question boils down to, is he more likely to finish 1st or 5th?
Unquestionably 5th. There will be only one first place finisher, but likely a two or three way tie for fifth.
January 31st, 2014 at 9:39:46 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOUnquestionably 5th. There will be only one first place finisher, but likely a two or three way tie for fifth.
Really good point. Assuming a tie for any number which would include 5th, like 3 guys T-4th, you're absolutely right.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 31st, 2014 at 9:52:30 AM
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my guess is 33rd.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 31st, 2014 at 10:33:12 AM
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No way he makes the top 10. At least I will lay even money he does not.
At the 2012 PGA Championship, Rose recorded his best ever performance in a major championship with a tie for 3rd finish. He shot a final round of 66 to jump 22 places up the leaderboard after three previous rounds of 69-79-70.
As for assuming 100 players, not since 1966 when 103 golfers competed have the pairings at Augusta topped 100.
At the 2012 PGA Championship, Rose recorded his best ever performance in a major championship with a tie for 3rd finish. He shot a final round of 66 to jump 22 places up the leaderboard after three previous rounds of 69-79-70.
As for assuming 100 players, not since 1966 when 103 golfers competed have the pairings at Augusta topped 100.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
March 10th, 2018 at 10:17:29 AM
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Tiger is back
Simply amazing
Co-leader at the Valspar Championship with 2 rounds to go
Here is an interesting stat
The latest golden boy in golf, Jordan Spieth, missed the cut
Jordan Spieth at age 24 has missed the cut 19 times in his short career
Tiger at age 42 has only missed the cut 18 times in his long career
What are the odds Tiger can take down the Masters?
What are the odds Tiger gets a major this year?
Simply amazing
Co-leader at the Valspar Championship with 2 rounds to go
Here is an interesting stat
The latest golden boy in golf, Jordan Spieth, missed the cut
Jordan Spieth at age 24 has missed the cut 19 times in his short career
Tiger at age 42 has only missed the cut 18 times in his long career
What are the odds Tiger can take down the Masters?
What are the odds Tiger gets a major this year?
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
March 11th, 2018 at 7:54:02 AM
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Tiger just 1 back going into the final round
I thought the career was over
nope
Tiger is back :-)
I thought the career was over
nope
Tiger is back :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
March 11th, 2018 at 8:17:54 AM
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Quote: terapined
What are the odds Tiger can take down the Masters?
What are the odds Tiger gets a major this year?
Odds on the Masters around 15-1. Likely to go down a tad if he actually wins today.
Any major probably 7-1.
Augusta is suited to his game.
Interesting quip. Phil Mickelson who won for the first time in over 4 years last weekend says Tiger always one ups him so Phil expects Tiger to win this weekend.
March 11th, 2018 at 3:55:17 PM
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikmatuszewski/2018/03/10/4000-masters-bet-on-tiger-woods-helps-shift-odds-for-augusta/#ef40d39563f2
I went Friday and it was incredible watching 80% of the crowd following him. Spent a good amount of time at the 8th and almost had it to ourselves until he got closer and then they lined up 10 deep to see him. I imagine it was far worse yesterday and today.
Good for the area and the course. I hope he comes back next year.
I went Friday and it was incredible watching 80% of the crowd following him. Spent a good amount of time at the 8th and almost had it to ourselves until he got closer and then they lined up 10 deep to see him. I imagine it was far worse yesterday and today.
Good for the area and the course. I hope he comes back next year.
