inversehelix
inversehelix
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January 21st, 2014 at 5:33:31 PM permalink
Hi,

If I've missed this somewhere on the threads on a website I'm sorry, but I've been going nut trying to find the answer. Every holdem stats site is proud to be specific. . I need basic overall numbers. Odds of winning hands after the river in a heads up game. If I have two pair, three of a kind, etc without taking into account if there's an overcard on the board or any of that. Where can I find it or how can I calculate it?

Thanks!
dwheatley
dwheatley
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January 21st, 2014 at 5:39:15 PM permalink
Hmm, I've seen a lot of tables, and I've never seen one like that. Seems simple enough it probably exists somewhere.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
paisiello
paisiello
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January 21st, 2014 at 7:50:46 PM permalink
Odds for 10 player game
inversehelix
inversehelix
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January 21st, 2014 at 8:40:03 PM permalink
Hey, thanks for the response but that appears to be starting hands in a 10 player game. I need to figure out odds for a final hand (i.e. after the river) on a heads up game.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2014 at 9:04:35 PM permalink
are you talking about a game that starts heads up ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
inversehelix
inversehelix
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January 21st, 2014 at 9:52:31 PM permalink
Yes, it would.
paisiello
paisiello
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January 21st, 2014 at 10:05:54 PM permalink
Two player game.
inversehelix
inversehelix
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January 22nd, 2014 at 7:30:39 AM permalink
Right, however those tables are just dealing with starting hands. I need to know about final hands (two pair, three of a kind, etc)
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 22nd, 2014 at 8:35:47 AM permalink
Tinkering around with this can help answer your question. I can't set up the proper example for you right now, but I'll try to later today.

http://www.propokertools.com/pql
paisiello
paisiello
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January 22nd, 2014 at 8:55:32 AM permalink
Well, you can get an estimate I suppose of the chances that someone has an equal or better hand by looking at the cumulative probabilities here:

Poker Hand Frequencies
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 22nd, 2014 at 8:59:18 AM permalink
Quote: paisiello

Well, you can get an estimate I suppose of the chances that someone has an equal or better hand by looking at the cumulative probabilities here:

Poker Hand Frequencies



Yeah that might be close, but the community card factor might shift the results a bit.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:42:28 PM permalink
I got distracted, and took a bit to scrape off the rust from using this thing. These are raw win percentages. Ties are not included.

http://www.propokertools.com/pql

select count(winsHi(p1)) as high_card_win
from game="holdem", p1="**", p2="**"
where exactHandType(p1, river, highcard)

Results:
Trials HIGH_CARD_WIN
600000 94810 (15.8%)

select count(winsHi(p1)) as one_pair_win
from game="holdem", p1="**", p2="**"
where exactHandType(p1, river, pair)

Results:
Trials ONE_PAIR_WIN
600000 244547 (40.76%)

And you just modify the hand value inside the parentheses of exactHandType in the code for the other hand classes to get these results:

Trials TRIPS_WIN
257150 186934 (72.69%)


Trials STRAIGHT_WIN
240099 193797 (80.72%)


Trials FLUSH_WIN
159548 135630 (85.01%)


Trials FULL_HOUSE_WIN
145500 126551 (86.98%)


Trials QUADS_WIN
8423 7649 (90.81%)


Trials STRAIGHT_FLUSH_WIN
1649 1555 (94.3%)
Buzzard
Buzzard
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:51:36 PM permalink
This is what you really need for heads up play.

http://www.mosesbet.com/the-sage-heads-up-poker-system/
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
inversehelix
inversehelix
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February 3rd, 2014 at 7:13:06 PM permalink
WOW! thank you so much! That was exactly what I was looking for!

sorry for the delay in response, I had to run away from technology for a bit and see my family.

really, I'm not an ungrateful jerk.

Much appreciated!
Buzzard
Buzzard
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February 3rd, 2014 at 7:31:46 PM permalink
I live to serve, Thank Lee Jones instead.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
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