seven
seven
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October 4th, 2013 at 6:20:31 AM permalink
hi all

I want to offer a game that pays always 1-2 for each bet and to be clear and to give an example a player would bet 2$ and would get 1$ in case of a win and has now 3$.

it is a sero house edge game. now my question:
if I leave it as it is and dont take any commission, what kind of risk would it be in the long run with a minimum bet of 1$ and maximum of 300$. I know it should get more to even the more bets are taken. but how ugly could it get for the house in case of possible ups and downs. maybe I need to adjust min and max bets?

any help will be very much appreciated. and thanks for all the help I got already in this forum.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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October 4th, 2013 at 6:53:10 AM permalink
seven,

I'm not one of the math geniuses on here, but you would have to be much more specific in what your game rules are before they can help you figure this out. You're talking about the volatility of the game, and the variance, and they would have to be able to write a simulation to test millions of hands before those type questions could be answered. They could only do that with very specific information about how the game plays and the proposed payback table.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
seven
seven
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October 4th, 2013 at 7:05:51 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

seven,

I'm not one of the math geniuses on here, but you would have to be much more specific in what your game rules are before they can help you figure this out. You're talking about the volatility of the game, and the variance, and they would have to be able to write a simulation to test millions of hands before those type questions could be answered. They could only do that with very specific information about how the game plays and the proposed payback table.



hey man thank You for Your input, very much appreciated. I didnt know that they would need all those infos to give me an answer. I am here and asking because I am not familiar with this kind of math and just dont want to go to study this because of my age :)

I will try to put it together and lets see if I can :)

cheers
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 4th, 2013 at 7:22:44 AM permalink
Quote: seven

hey man thank You for Your input, very much appreciated.

Just as an aside, that very helpful suggestion came from beachbumbabs, a dynamite looking female. I think this shows how you must pay attention to details as they can be important. This 1:2 game of some sort that you intend to offer might get very expensive, particularly if you are overlooking some obvious points.
seven
seven
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October 4th, 2013 at 7:32:19 AM permalink
ok I am trying now to follow the tip of beachbumbabs and give some more explanation of the game or winning percentage. please excuse my bad english

actually I dont want to talk about the game I have in mind. I hope this is acceptable. lets take this game with a sero HE. the payout is 2-1 because the percentage is 66.66% of bets winning and 33.33% losing. one can compare this with the following bet on a roulette wheel without a sero like at betfair casino = sero HE. it is a bet on the 2-1 payoffs such as 100$ on 1-12 (1st dozen) and 100$ on 13-24 (2nd dozen) so the odds taking home 100$ are 66.66% imho. this would be the game it is always like one throw of a roulette ball and the outcome is 66.66% winners and 33.33% loser and the player will only have the option to bet on 2 dozen bets against the 3rd dozen.

if this is not enough please let me know.

cheers
7craps
7craps
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October 4th, 2013 at 8:38:06 AM permalink
Quote: seven

I want to offer a game that pays always 1-2 for each bet

what kind of risk would it be in the long run with a minimum bet of 1$ and maximum of 300$.
I know it should get more to even the more bets are taken.
but how ugly could it get for the house in case of possible ups and downs.
maybe I need to adjust min and max bets?

any help will be very much appreciated.

the standard deviation for a one unit bet would be a good place to start
The central limit theorem would be next to use
of course, if this is a simple win/lose type bet, one can also simulate to verify the computed values.
many do both for a good reason

this page can help

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaming_mathematics

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
seven
seven
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October 4th, 2013 at 9:59:33 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

the standard deviation for a one unit bet would be a good place to start
The central limit theorem would be next to use
of course, if this is a simple win/lose type bet, one can also simulate to verify the computed values.
many do both for a good reason

this page can help

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaming_mathematics

Good Luck



@7craps

thank You for the link I took a read and followed some links and try to understand it and find the solution. but to be frank that looks very heavy for me.
dont think that I am lazy but it doesnt make sense to have a game and be the house if all possibilities are not clear and on the table. if You or some one else know some pro who can help me against payment would also be fine. right now it is just an idea and nothing big but for me it is important to know all sides of the SD (learned something) and in connection with HE.

thanks
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