January 29th, 2013 at 5:42:05 PM
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I am misinterpreting something or doing something wrong. I'm using the calculators on http://www.card-counting.com/.
First, I am using the Risk of Ruin Given a Goal and No Time Constraint Calculator.
My inputs:
700 End Result in Units/Goal
500 Bankroll in Units
-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands
27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands
This gives me a Risk of Ruin = 64.84%. If I understand that correctly, 35.16% of the time I hit my goal of 700 units, otherwise I go broke.
I then try to get a similar result in the Probabilty of your Actual Results Calculator:
My inputs:
200 Amount Won/Lost
-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands
27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands
10000 Hands Played
Probability of this result or better = 7.97%. And playing around with the number of hands played, that is about as high as I can get. I thought I would find a number of hands that would give me around a 35.16% probability.
My thinking is screwed somewhere. Help me out.
Thanks,
Oscar
First, I am using the Risk of Ruin Given a Goal and No Time Constraint Calculator.
My inputs:
700 End Result in Units/Goal
500 Bankroll in Units
-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands
27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands
This gives me a Risk of Ruin = 64.84%. If I understand that correctly, 35.16% of the time I hit my goal of 700 units, otherwise I go broke.
I then try to get a similar result in the Probabilty of your Actual Results Calculator:
My inputs:
200 Amount Won/Lost
-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands
27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands
10000 Hands Played
Probability of this result or better = 7.97%. And playing around with the number of hands played, that is about as high as I can get. I thought I would find a number of hands that would give me around a 35.16% probability.
My thinking is screwed somewhere. Help me out.
Thanks,
Oscar