oscar33
oscar33
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 59
Joined: Sep 6, 2011
January 29th, 2013 at 5:42:05 PM permalink
I am misinterpreting something or doing something wrong. I'm using the calculators on http://www.card-counting.com/.

First, I am using the Risk of Ruin Given a Goal and No Time Constraint Calculator.

My inputs:

700 End Result in Units/Goal

500 Bankroll in Units

-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands

27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands

This gives me a Risk of Ruin = 64.84%. If I understand that correctly, 35.16% of the time I hit my goal of 700 units, otherwise I go broke.

I then try to get a similar result in the Probabilty of your Actual Results Calculator:

My inputs:

200 Amount Won/Lost

-1.9 Win rate per 100 hands

27.72 Std. Dev. per 100 hands

10000 Hands Played

Probability of this result or better = 7.97%. And playing around with the number of hands played, that is about as high as I can get. I thought I would find a number of hands that would give me around a 35.16% probability.

My thinking is screwed somewhere. Help me out.

Thanks,

Oscar
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